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USDEUR trade ideas

EURUSD: Pullback before the crash!The EUR/USD continues its downward trend, recently touching a new cycle low around 1.0176 as the US Dollar maintains its relentless rally, fueled by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for an extended period. The Greenback’s strength has been amplified by a fifth consecutive bullish session, with the DXY surpassing the critical 110.00 level. Investors have sharply revised their outlook on Fed policy, reducing the probability of significant rate cuts in the near term. This shift in sentiment follows a robust Nonfarm Payrolls report and hawkish remarks from Fed officials, emphasizing the priority of taming inflation before contemplating further easing. On the policy front, while the Fed recently trimmed its benchmark rate to 4.25%-4.50%, Chair Powell’s cautious tone during the final press conference of 2024 left markets in little doubt that any future rate cuts will be gradual. Powell underscored the need to anchor inflation closer to the 2% target and pointed out that despite some softening, the labor market remains resilient. This narrative has bolstered USD demand and widened the divergence with the European Central Bank’s stance. In contrast, the ECB faces mounting pressure to sustain its easing cycle amid a deteriorating economic outlook across the eurozone, particularly in Germany, where industrial performance has been lackluster. Despite a marginal rise in inflation figures for December, ECB policymakers seem committed to prioritizing growth over inflation control in the short term. This divergence in central bank policies has created a headwind for the euro, further weakening EUR/USD and increasing the likelihood of a test of parity. Adding to the complexity, potential trade policy shifts under the incoming US administration could inject additional volatility. Proposals for renewed tariffs could stoke inflationary pressures in the US, compelling the Fed to adopt a more aggressive tightening stance. Such a scenario would exacerbate the euro’s struggles, as a stronger USD and continued ECB easing would widen the interest rate differential between the two economies. Looking ahead, the focus will remain on key data releases, including US CPI and Retail Sales, alongside eurozone Industrial Production and German inflation data. These reports will offer crucial insights into the respective economic trajectories and may set the tone for future price action. However, in the current context, the EUR/USD appears poised to remain under pressure as the fundamental backdrop heavily favors the Greenback. Until there is a significant shift in economic or policy expectations, the pair may continue its march towards parity.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD Fibo TestMore USD strength to start the week and the big item for the dollar on this week's calendar is the CPI release on Wednesday morning. USD is overbought on both weekly and daily charts and EUR/USD is oversold on the weekly. That doesn't necessarily spell reversal, however, and we're likely waiting for that CPI data on Wednesday to see if there's going to be profit taking in these well-built trends. In EUR/USD, a big level just came into play at 1.0200. That's the 23.6% retracement of the same Fibonacci setup that caught the high at the 61.8% retracement in 2023. There was also the low in the first half of last year at the 38.2 that ended up coming in as resistance in December. -js
by FOREXcom
Euro / U.S Dollar Greetings and respect to my dear companions. Well, dear friends, since the DXY chart of the dollar is important, there is no need for us to follow the monthly chart of the Euro, as the confirmation from (DXY) exerts strong influences on this chart and other currencies. We are more focused on tracking the weekly, daily, and four-hour changes of this currency and other currencies. Therefore, we conclude that the Euro chart remains bearish, and in the weekly timeframe, I expect a good reaction on the IFC candle, as this candle was the start of the previous bullish movement. Thus, the price should reach this candle in the weekly timeframe, and we should obtain confirmations in the daily and four-hour timeframes to make precise trades. In this timeframe, we have a bearish POI and a very good Liquidity that the price hitting these two zones will provide us with excellent trades to form a new low that is currently being created. Now, I have accurately drawn the structure in the daily timeframe for you in red, and you can see that there are no Order Blocks in this timeframe! Therefore, we need to be alert. Friends, these daily candles have overlapped well, indicating that we should expect a great bullish movement from this daily zone and structure, which is strong, towards the weekly zone. However, in the four-hour timeframe, dear friends, in this timeframe, IDM or Liquidity is currently the same as the daily. In this bearish leg, we have no signs of a bearish Order Block to plan around. In the coming days, the chart may provide us with a new Liquidity that we can decide to sell on Pullbacks. Since the chart is getting crowded, I won’t move to lower timeframes like 1 hour or 15 minutes, but I will monitor it since this currency is my favorite for trades, and my ideal timeframe, if not excessive, is trading in 1 second or Tick Time. Friends, since my trading volume is high, I have to trade in this smaller timeframe, but I always have open trades and leverage all timeframes. Thank you, and until the new update on this chart, may you be profitable and successful! Chart Notes: I will place the chart in the four-hour timeframe so you can easily zoom in and see the details. The chart is designed to be very simple and smooth for your use. Since there were no Order Blocks in these timeframes, I did not draw them. The characteristic of an Order Block in every timeframe must have an Imbalance, and all Imbalances have been filled. Fereydoon Bahrami "A retail trader in the Wall Street trading Center (Forex)."
by fereydoon1199
EUR/USD Short from 1.03000 (Supply Zone 6hr)My analysis for EUR/USD (EU) this week aligns with my view on other pairs, as the Dollar continues to strengthen. The bearish trend remains strong, and I plan to stay aligned with this pro-trend movement. The price has broken structure to the downside and left a clean 6-hour supply zone that is yet to be mitigated. Once the price retraces to this supply zone, I’ll be looking for potential sell opportunities. I’ll wait for a redistribution pattern to confirm my entry before taking shorts. If the price continues to drop without retracing, I’ll monitor for a closer supply zone to form and adjust my setup accordingly. Confluences for EU Sells: - The price remains strongly bearish on higher time frames. - The DXY is bullish, supporting the bearish trend for EU. - A clean supply zone caused a Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside. - The market is consistently forming lower lows and lower highs. - A significant imbalance below still needs to be filled. Note: If the price reaches the 7-hour demand zone below or the imbalance, I anticipate a potential bullish reaction, possibly leading to a retracement.
Short
by Hassan_fx
EUR/USD Analysis: A Deep Dive into Key Triggers🧵 EUR/USD has been in a prolonged downtrend, recently gaining even more bearish momentum due to the strength of the DXY. I’m Skeptic , and in today’s analysis, we’ll break down potential long and short triggers for this pair. Let’s explore opportunities across multiple timeframes. 📉 Daily Timeframe: Identifying Key Levels On the daily chart, the primary trend remains bearish within a descending channel. Key Support Zone: 1.01270 to 1.00423 This zone aligns with the midline of the channel, Fibonacci retracements, and horizontal support levels. If you’re holding short positions, this area is ideal for profit-taking. 📍 4-Hour Timeframe: Triggers and Precision Moving to the 4-hour chart, we pinpoint actionable setups: After breaking below the 1.02527 support level and consolidating, EUR/USD has reached the 1.02084 support zone. For Breakout Traders: A break and close below 1.02084 could signal further bearish momentum. I personally lean toward this approach and will monitor the break closely. For Reaction Traders: Waiting for a pullback or bounce near the daily support zone (1.01270-1.00423) might offer better long opportunities with tighter stop-loss levels. 📈 DXY Analysis: Driving Market Sentiment The DXY (US Dollar Index) continues its strong bullish trend, and its performance heavily influences EUR/USD: A sustained break above 109.449 could pave the way for further upside toward 113.219. With its current bullish momentum, this move could pressure assets like Bitcoin, which may test critical support levels at 85 or even 80-82. Key Takeaways: EUR/USD: Watch for a break below 1.02084 for short entries. React near 1.01270-1.00423 for potential long setups. DXY: A continuation above 109.449 strengthens bearish pressure on EUR/USD. Conclusion & Final Thoughts Navigating the EUR/USD market requires a blend of technical precision and patience. While short-term triggers offer immediate opportunities, always align your trades with the broader market context, such as DXY trends. 💬 What’s your take on EUR/USD? Are you a breakout or reaction trader? Share your insights in the comments! I’m Skeptic , dedicated to simplifying trading and helping you achieve mastery step by step. Let’s keep growing and learning together! 😊
Short
by SkepticWise
1
EURUSD: a higher for longerThe major data posted during the previous week were related to the US jobs data. The surprisingly better than expected Non-farm Payrolls figures of 256K hit the market on Friday. The expectations were standing at the side of 200K. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped to the level of 4,1%, from 4,2% posted during previous months. Average hourly earnings were increased by 0,3% in December, bringing the figure to 3,9% for the year. Another surprise came from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for January. The Michigan 5 years inflation expectations were increased to the level of 3,3%, from 3% posted during the previous months. From other macro data posted during the week, the ISM Services PMI in December reached 54,1 a bit higher from 53,3 market consensus. Inflation rate preliminary for December in Germany reached 2,6% on a yearly basis, which was higher from market consensus of 2,4%. Inflation rate on a monthly basis was standing at 0,4%. Inflation rate in the Euro Zone flash for December was standing at 2,4% y/y and was in line with market expectations. The unemployment rate in the EuroZone in November was 6,3%, unchanged from the previous month. Factory orders in Germany continue to be under pressure with -5,4% m/m change in November. This was strongly below forecasted 0,3%. Retail sales in Germany in November were also surprising with a drop of -0,6% m/m while the market again expected to see a positive figure of 0,5%. The balance of trade in Germany in November managed to stay in a positive territory with 19,7B euros, which was much higher from market consensus of 14,8B euros. During the previous week, the strong strengthening of the US Dollar continued. The eurusd took the course further toward the downside, reaching the lowest weekly level at 1,0220. The historical support line at 1,04 has been easily breached. This represents a continuation of the move toward the parity, after the last defense line at 1,04 has been clearly broken. The euro Zone continues to struggle to sustain its modest economic growth, while the latest jobs data in the US showed clear resilience of the US economy toward the inflation and high interest rates. The RSI continues to move around the oversold market side for the last three weeks. There is no clear indication on the potential for a short reversal. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication that the convergence might start anytime soon. The markets set the clear course for eurusd in September last year. Now the main question is with which speed the markets will head toward parity? Current charts are pointing to some probability that the level 1,02 could be tested in the week ahead. However, it should be taken into account that December Inflation data for the US will be posted in the week ahead, which might bring back some volatility. The move toward the upside is possible, but it should be taken with a precaution. After posted jobs data, the market is currently in the sentiment that the interest rates will be “higher for longer”, in which sense, a demand for US Dollar might continue. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Full year GDP growth in Germany, Inflation rate in Germany, final for December, USD: Producers Price Index for December, Inflation rate in December, Retail Sales in December, Building Permits preliminary for December, Housing starts in December
by XBTFX
Could the Fiber reverse from here?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 1.0185 1st Support: 1.0092 1st Resistance: 1.0340 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
EURO - Price can turn around from support area and start growHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Some time ago price declined inside falling channel, where it reached resistance line and then fell to $1.0455 level. Then price moved up to resistance line, some time traded near, and then made downward impulse. Price exited from channel, breaking $1.0455 level, and started to trades in flat, where it at once rose to resistance area. In flat, price so long traded in resistance area, after which it turned around and corrected to $1.0250 level. Euro backed up to resistance area, but at once bounced and dropped below $1.0250 level, breaking it and exiting from flat. I think that price can turn around in support area and then bounce up to $1.0365, breaking resistance level. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Long
by WalterMoon
1