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EURUSD:ECB lifts its cards, neutral rate at 2%.By Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst The European Central Bank has stopped playing the guessing game and has officially revealed its “best-kept secret” : the neutral interest rate for the euro zone stands at around 2%, with a range of between 1.75% and 2.25%. This figure, which has been the subject of speculation for years, now marks the way forward for monetary policy in an environment where investors, and especially EURUSD traders, are seeking clarity amid volatility. For those who follow the markets closely, this announcement is key. The neutral rate is that level at which monetary policy exerts neither expansionary nor restrictive effect on the economy. At the current 2.75% after the last cut, the ECB statement makes it clear that, if economic conditions hold, the process of cuts will close in the summer at around 2%. This would imply three additional 25 basis point cuts over the next few meetings, which in our view is a firm step towards normalization. Philip Lane, the ECB's chief economist, has previously stated that the debate on the neutral rate is becoming less relevant as rates approach a level at which they no longer hold back growth. In an environment of low inflation - with the target achievable in the summer - the central bank focuses on what is really necessary to sustain growth without overheating the economy. Luis de Guindos, for his part, has reiterated that although the concept of the neutral rate is very useful from an analytical point of view, in practice the ECB relies on other metrics, such as the bank survey, to set the price of money. Christine Lagarde, always at the center of ECB communication, helped dispel uncertainty by raising expectations of cuts, pointing out that the current path of monetary policy clearly points to a 2% floor by the summer. This clarity is especially valuable for traders, as it allows us to adjust our investment strategies in the EURUSD and fixed income markets. This data is a beacon of stability for the Euro. An environment in which rates are expected to converge to 2% suggests a potential revaluation of the Euro against the dollar, as investors move towards assets that offer a margin of stability. The projection of a more robust EURUSD is in line with the expectation that, from summer onwards, the ECB will stop cutting and stabilize at that neutral level, which could reshape the dynamics of capital flows in the eurozone. On the other hand, from a macro point of view, this decision reinforces the idea that the ECB is confident in the European economy's ability to achieve a balance between growth and inflation. Traders should note that in a scenario of rate stability at 2%, the euro is likely to benefit from a more predictable environment, which in turn would positively affect cross-border trade and investment. Technical Analysis Looking at the chart, the EURUSD has been in a downtrend that diverted it to a low of $1.01766 on January 13, currently facing a range that positions it between this low and a ceiling of $1.05327. Currently trading at $1.03048, the POC zone is located in the area of $1.05 per euro. Looking at the pressure of the last few days, the RSI is currently oversold at 45.23%. The 3 smoothed averages reinforce the idea of a price sideways movement in a price zone that coincides with that of January 15 and can be seen on the chart. The current pressure seems to have been contained and has generated a strong resistance in the $1.03 area. Therefore, the data is consistent with a possible bullish bounce in the previously mentioned direction. Employing Fibbonacci, the price is below the 38.20% of the last strong retracement that pushed the price to lows, so there is plenty of room left until reaching the 61.80% ($1.04094) which is slightly above the checkpoint area. In summary, the ECB's announcement not only clears up doubts, but also sets a clear framework for the near future: the rate cutting cycle is expected to conclude in the summer, leaving rates at a neutral 2% level. For the EURUSD and for markets in general, this is a sign of stability that will undoubtedly influence investment decisions and trading strategies in the coming months. With the clarity offered today by the ECB, it is time to adjust positions and prepare strategies for a horizon of greater certainty. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades
Lingrid | EURUSD forming a Triangle Pattern. ShortFX:EURUSD continues to consolidate around 1.0300 level. Recently, the market gapped down again, but that gap has already been filled. Last week, the price declined following a news release, respecting the downward trendline and breaking below the 1.03500 level. Overall, the price is forming a triangle pattern, forming lower highs and higher lows. Given that the market has bounced off the upper boundary of the pattern, I anticipate it may retest the lower boundary. I expect the market to reject the resistance and subsequently retest last week's low. My goal is support zone around 1.02270 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Short
by Lingrid
5
Which way will the Eur/USD pair go?EUR/USD Market Update: 🔆The US dollar continued to strengthen amid ongoing developments in President Trump’s tariff policies. While the widely debated 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports have been postponed, the 10% tariffs on Chinese goods remain unchanged. The lack of clarity and uncertainty from the White House initially led investors to unwind their long positions in the dollar early last week. 🔆However, the greenback regained momentum over the weekend after President Trump announced plans to introduce a new 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, in addition to the current tariffs on these metals. 🔆Investors are now closely watching Fed Chair Powell’s speech today. In the past, the Fed has maintained a hawkish stance amid concerns over Trump’s trade and fiscal policies. Meanwhile, the ECB recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points in an effort to address slowing economic growth and persistent inflation above its 2% target. Personal Insight: 🔆The euro faces significant headwinds. A robust US dollar, diverging monetary policies between the Fed and the ECB, and internal challenges within the eurozone—such as Germany’s economic slowdown—could all put downward pressure on the single currency. While short-term rebounds are possible, the euro’s long-term trajectory remains uncertain, especially as global trade tensions, including those involving the EU, continue to unfold. Technical Outlook: 🔆Analysis based on the RSI (4H) indicator, Fibonacci confluence trendlines, and key resistance-support levels. Plan: 🔆 Price Zone Setup: 👉Buy EUR/USD 1.0330 -1.0345 ❌SL: 1.0400 | ✅TP: 1.0300 – 1.026 – 1.021
Short
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
EUR/UISD - Strong Trade Setup (XCI Model)Hi all, If you have been following you would have seen I have been winning a lot of trades recently.... well, I have a new entry model Ive been playing with that works on any time frame in any market. Im naming it XCI. I wont be posting with how it works in here but I will be sharing my trade setups I use it in. This is one of them Liquidity Sweep taken on a Long Term Bearish Market. Market jump left Imbalance to fill giving us a strong level to sell from. We have our OTE Zone Marked out with the discount zone we want to see price move into before selling off Good Luck to the traders that follow
Short
by jamesibartram
1
EURUSD 10 February 2025 TRADE IDEAThe EUR/USD pair remains in a long-term downtrend, as indicated by the descending trendlines and the formation of lower highs and lower lows. Recent price action shows a rejection from the 1.0400 - 1.0514 supply zone, suggesting strong bearish momentum. Price is likely to target the next demand zone around 1.0000 - 0.9935, as order flow and smart money concepts (SMC) indicate further downside. A break of structure (BOS) confirms continued bearish intent, while liquidity grabs and fair value gaps (FVGs) suggest price may seek equilibrium near 0.9800 - 0.9400 in the longer term. Fundamentally, the U.S. dollar remains strong due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, resilient labor market data, and persistent inflation, while the Eurozone faces economic struggles, with the ECB being less aggressive on rate hikes due to slowing growth. Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts, add to global risk-off sentiment, further strengthening USD as a safe-haven asset. If price breaks below 1.0000, further declines toward 0.9935 - 0.9800 are expected, while a sustained break above 1.0514 would challenge the bearish outlook.
Short
by karabompesi
What Will Trigger the Next Big Move?The US dollar had a bit of a mixed week, ending a little lower than where it started. But don't worry, it's still showing signs of strength! The market is a bit jumpy right now, with lots of things happening around the world. We've got the US and China still figuring out their trade deal, some interesting US job numbers and everyone's waiting to see what happens with inflation. Let's break down what's going on and what it might mean for FX market this week. US and China: Still Talking, Still Uncertain The US and China are still trying to work out a trade deal, but it's not easy. Every time there's a bit of news, the market reacts. The dollar got stronger at first when the US announced new tariffs on some Chinese goods, but then it weakened again when it seemed like maybe they were getting closer to a deal. This back and forth is making the market a bit nervous, and we might see more ups and downs in the dollar and other currencies until things settle down. US Jobs: A Mixed Bag, But Still Pretty Good The latest US job numbers were a bit confusing. The unemployment rate dropped to 4%, which is great news for the dollar buyers, but the number of new jobs created wasn't as high as everyone expected. However, wages went up more than expected, which means people have more money to spend. This could lead to higher inflation, which the Fed is keeping a close eye on. This week, we'll get more information about the job market with the JOLTs report, which will give us a better idea of how healthy the job market really is. Inflation: The Big Question Mark Inflation is a big deal for the Federal Reserve (Fed), and everyone's waiting to see what happens with the CPI data this week. Inflation has been pretty close to the Fed's 2% target, but it might be starting to go up. If inflation is higher than expected, it might take even longer for FED to deliver the rate cut. This delay in easing could make the dollar stronger. On the other side, If inflation disappoints, the market could react negatively, as the dollar's recent strength is heavily reliant on the expectation of a hawkish Fed. Dollar's Next Move: Which Way Will It Go? The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar value against other currencies, ended the week a little lower. This shows how uncertain things are right now. The DXY had a good run earlier this year, but now it's taking a breather. What happens next depends a lot on the inflation data and whether the US and China can make a deal. If you look at the charts, the DXY is hanging around the 108.00 level. The DXY's ability to maintain support above the 108.00-107.50 zone will be crucial in deciding its near-term trajectory. A sustained break below this zone could signal a shift in momentum, while a hold above would keep the bullish outlook. Euro and Pound: Facing Some Challenges The euro and the pound are both having a bit of a tough time right now. The Eurozone economy is slowing down, and the European Central Bank (ECB) isn't likely to make any big changes to its policies anytime soon. This could make the euro weaker, especially against the dollar. The pound is also facing problems, with the UK economy slowing down and inflation still sticking around. This is called stagflation, and it's not a good situation. We'll get some important data about the UK economy this week, which will give us a better idea of what might happen to the pound. From a technical perspective, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are looking very bearish. The euro is getting close to the 1.0280 level, and if it breaks below, the market will likely target 1.0200 next. Meanwhile, the pound is already struggling to hold above the 1.2400 support level. A break below could send it down to 1.2250 or even 1.2100, especially if the UK economic data released this week is worse than expected. Swiss Franc: The Wild Card The Swiss franc is a bit of a wild card right now. Inflation in Switzerland is really low, which is worrying the Swiss National Bank (SNB). They've been trying to keep the franc from getting too strong, but it's not easy. They might even have to use negative interest rates, which would be a pretty big deal for the franc and other currencies. Technically, USD/CHF has been trading in a range between 0.9000 and 0.9200 since the beginning of 2025. Within this range, there's a smaller zone with resistance at 0.9130 and support at 0.9050. If the price breaks above 0.9130, we could see the dollar continue higher toward the top of the trading zone, especially since the dollar is strong right now. There's also a chance that we could see a breakout above the whole range this week if the US inflation data is higher than expected. So, make sure you're keeping an eye on the economic calendar! What to Watch This Week This week is going to be another exciting one for the markets! Traders need to keep a close eye on the US-China trade talks, the US inflation data, and the UK GDP data . And don't forget about the Swiss franc! Things could change quickly, so it's important to stay informed and be ready to react. Disclaimer: This article is just for informational purposes and shouldn't be taken as financial advice.
Short
by E8Markets
1
Euro can drop to support level, exiting from pennantHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. When analyzing the chart, it’s clear that the price initially climbed to the resistance level, which overlapped with the seller zone, but immediately bounced back and dropped to the support level. Shortly after, the Euro broke through the support level, falling below the buyer zone. However, it quickly reversed and began rising within an upward channel. Within this channel, the Euro broke the 1.0265 support level and performed a retest, consolidating near that level for a while before continuing its upward momentum. Eventually, the Euro reached the resistance level, broke through it, and moved up to the resistance line of the channel, ultimately exiting the channel. Afterward, the price formed its first gap and started declining within a pennant pattern, where it soon broke the 1.0435 resistance level. Later, the price created a strong second gap, dropped below the support level, and hit the pennant's support line. From there, the Euro began rising again, breaking the support level once more and climbing back to the resistance level. However, not long ago, the price fell back to the pennant’s support line, creating a third gap. In my view, the Euro can attempt to rise to 1.0360 before dropping back to the support level and exiting the pennant pattern. For this reason, I’ve set my take-profit target at the 1.0265 support level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
4
EURUSD 1H Death Cross waiting for the perfect Sell.The EURUSD pair completed a 1H Death Cross on today's opening, the first such formation since January 30. Given that we are currently within a Channel Down pattern similar to January's Death Cross, we expect the current formation to follow the trend of the former. After a short-term rebound above the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line), the previous Channel Down declined aggressively to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. This gives us a new bearish target at 1.01500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
EUR downtrend under pressureEUR/USD is currently showing a volatile downward trend, with prices hitting key support and resistance areas many times, and no significant directional breakthrough has occurred. From the overall trend, prices have been falling since the high of 1.05230, breaking through multiple key support levels, and are currently hovering around 1.03217, showing weak characteristics. From the perspective of the trend line, the obvious downward trend line suppression has exerted continuous pressure on prices, and the current price has failed to break through the resistance point of 1.03721 above. Resistance level: In the short term, 1.03721 is the current important resistance level, and prices need to break through this position to further open upside space. If this point is stable, it may test the higher 1.04200 area. Support level: The key support level below is around 1.02299, which is the previous low and an area where bulls may exert their strength. If this support is broken, the downward space will be further opened, possibly pointing to 1.01500. Pullback test: The current exchange rate may rebound and test the 1.03721 line. If it fails to break through this resistance, it may be blocked and fall back, continuing the downward trend. Continuation of decline: If the price falls directly and falls below the 1.03000 area, it will confirm the dominance of shorts, and the target is 1.02299 or even lower. Operation suggestions: If the price touches the 1.03721 resistance level and there are obvious signs of pressure, you can try short-term short orders, with the target below 1.03000 and the stop loss set above 1.04000. If the price falls back to 1.02299 and stabilizes, you can consider long orders, with the target at 1.03200, and the stop loss is recommended to be set below 1.02000. The current EUR/USD trend is still dominated by oscillating downwards. It is necessary to pay attention to the breakthrough of key points to determine the next direction and maintain a flexible operation strategy.
Short
by RonPeter_Trading
1