Buy EUR/USD Into Bearish SupplyThe continuous bullish momentum this week looks good for the Euro as it approaches daily level of supply. We can sail with the trend wave as we target our daily supply area with good reward to risk.
USDEUR trade ideas
Euro-dollar eyes $1.10 againWith new tariffs likely to have a significant negative impact on the American economy, the euro made strong gains against the dollar in the aftermath of the announcement. Against these, inflation in the eurozone cooled to 2.2% according to the flash release for March. The consensus is for a total cut of 0.65% by the ECB for the rest of 2025, which in itself is a negative factor for the euro: the difference in rates between it and the dollar is unlikely to change significantly until possibly next year.
$1.10 looks like a strong resistance which could resist testing for some time unless sentiment supports a breakout. However, with the price having consolidated above $1.08 for most of last month, a move above $1.10 seems to be more favourable technically now compared to around this time in March: there’s no indication of overbought and the slow stochastic is close to neutral at around 55.
The area around $1.07-1.08 and particularly $1.07 itself around the 100% monthly Fibonacci retracement will probably remain in view as a zone of support. A lot depends on the results of the upcoming American job report: since the range of expectations for total nonfarm is so wide, it seems more likely that the actual result will diverge significantly from the average consensus.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
Euro Rises Above $1.09 Despite Tariff ThreatsThe euro climbed above $1.09, showing unexpected strength after President Trump announced 20% tariffs on all EU imports.
◉ Fundamental Rationale
● The currency got a boost because the U.S. dollar weakened. Trump’s tariffs made trade tensions worse and worried people about slower economic growth.
● Also, new numbers showed Eurozone inflation fell to 2.2% in March, the lowest since November 2024.
● This lower inflation means the European Central Bank doesn’t need to raise interest rates, making the euro more appealing to investors.
◉ Technical Observation
● From a technical perspective, an inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed, hinting at a possible trend reversal.
● A breakout above $1.095 could pave the way for stronger bullish momentum.
EURUSD: Bulls Take ControlEURUSD has broken out of the parallel descending channel that existed over the past few days, thanks to positive economic data in the market at the end of Thursday's trading session.
Currently, the currency pair is moving in a consolidation pattern around the new support level at 1.0789, and the potential for further upside is considered high due to support from the confluence zone between EMA 34 and EMA 89.
The next targets are expected to aim for resistance levels at 1.082 and 1.085.
Wishing you smooth and successful trading!
EUR/USD Coils Below Resistance at 1.0940The euro is attempting to build bullish momentum against the U.S. dollar, but the pair remains capped by key resistance at 1.0940. Today’s bounce to 1.0852 (+0.55%) keeps the pair above both the 200-day (1.0732) and 50-day (1.0603) SMAs, suggesting the broader structure has turned constructive.
🔹 MACD is flat, showing waning upside momentum.
🔹 RSI is trending upward, now at 60.13, approaching overbought territory.
🔹 Price is consolidating in a shallow bullish flag pattern above the 200-day average.
A break above 1.0940 would confirm bullish continuation, potentially targeting 1.1050–1.1100. On the flip side, failure to clear resistance could prompt a pullback toward 1.0750 or the 50-day SMA.
This consolidation is getting tighter – a breakout looks imminent.
-MW
EUR/USD: Bullish Falling Wedge Breakout Towards TargetLet’s analyze the 1-hour candlestick chart of EUR/USD (Euro / U.S. Dollar) on TradingView, published by GoldMasterTraders on April 2, 2025, at 19:04 UTC. The chart highlights a trading setup based on a Falling Wedge pattern, indicating a potential bullish breakout. I’ll describe the chart pattern and the trading setup in detail.
Chart Pattern: Falling Wedge
Pattern Description
Type: The chart identifies a Falling Wedge pattern, which is a bullish chart pattern that typically signals a reversal or continuation of an uptrend. A Falling Wedge forms when the price consolidates between two downward-sloping trendlines that converge over time, with the upper trendline (resistance) sloping more steeply than the lower trendline (support).
Appearance on the Chart:
The Falling Wedge is clearly marked with two converging trendlines:
Upper Trendline (Resistance): Connects the lower highs, sloping downward.
Lower Trendline (Support): Connects the lower lows, also sloping downward but at a less steep angle.
The pattern began forming around March 19, after a sharp decline from 1.9400 to 1.8700, and continued until the breakout on April 2, 2025.
Breakout Direction:
Falling Wedges are typically bullish, meaning the price is expected to break out to the upside. The chart shows the price breaking above the upper trendline of the wedge around April 2, 2025, with a strong bullish candle, confirming the breakout.
The breakout level is around 1.90840, and the price has moved slightly above this level, closing at 1.90864 at the time of the chart.
Key Levels and Trading Setup
1. Support Level
A horizontal support zone is marked around 1.90730 (approximately 1.9070–1.9080).
This level acted as a base during the wedge formation, with the price bouncing off this zone multiple times (e.g., on March 23 and March 30).
The support level aligns with the lower boundary of the wedge, reinforcing its significance as a key area of buying interest.
2. Resistance Level
A resistance zone is marked around 1.92000 (approximately 1.9190–1.9210).
This level corresponds to a previous high reached on March 19, before the wedge formation began. It represents a significant barrier where selling pressure previously emerged.
After the breakout, the price is expected to test this resistance as part of the bullish move.
3. Target
The target for the breakout is projected at 1.92110.
This target is likely calculated by measuring the height of the wedge at its widest point (from the highest high to the lowest low within the pattern) and projecting that distance upward from the breakout point.
The chart indicates a potential move of 0.00435 (0.40%), which aligns with the distance from the breakout level (around 1.90840) to the target (1.92110).
4. Stop Loss
A stop loss is suggested below the support level at 1.90730.
This placement ensures that if the breakout fails and the price falls back into the wedge, the trade is exited with a manageable loss.
The stop loss is just below the breakout level (1.90840), with a distance of approximately 0.00110, representing the risk on the trade.
Trading Setup Summary
Entry:
The setup suggests entering a long (buy) position after the price breaks out above the upper trendline of the Falling Wedge, which occurred around April 2, 2025. The breakout is confirmed by a strong bullish candle closing above the trendline at approximately 1.90840.
Stop Loss:
Place a stop loss below the support level at 1.90730 to protect against a false breakout or reversal. The distance from the breakout level (1.90840) to the stop loss (1.90730) is 0.00110, or about 0.06% of the entry price.
Take Profit/Target:
Aim for the target at 1.92110, which is near the next significant resistance level. The distance from the breakout level to the target is 0.01270, or a 0.40% move.
Risk-Reward Ratio:
The risk is 0.00110 (from 1.90840 to 1.90730), and the reward is 0.01270 (from 1.90840 to 1.92110), giving a risk-reward ratio of approximately 11.55:1 (0.01270 / 0.00110). This is an exceptionally high risk-reward ratio, making the setup very attractive, though traders should ensure the breakout is well-confirmed due to the tight stop loss.
Additional Observations
Price Action Context:
Before the wedge formed, the price experienced a sharp decline from 1.9400 (March 13) to 1.8700 (March 19), indicating a strong bearish trend.
The Falling Wedge represents a consolidation phase within this downtrend, and the upside breakout suggests a potential reversal or at least a corrective move higher.
Volume and Momentum:
The chart doesn’t display volume or momentum indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD). However, a typical confirmation of a Falling Wedge breakout would include:
An increase in volume on the breakout candle, indicating strong buying interest.
Bullish momentum signals, such as an RSI above 50 or a bullish MACD crossover.
Traders might want to check these indicators for additional confirmation of the breakout’s strength.
Timeframe:
This is a 1-hour chart, so the setup is intended for short-term trading, with the target potentially being reached within a few hours to a day.
Market Context:
EUR/USD is influenced by factors like U.S. dollar strength, Eurozone economic data, and interest rate differentials. A bullish move in EUR/USD could be driven by a weaker dollar (e.g., due to dovish U.S. economic data) or positive Eurozone developments.
Conclusion
The TradingView idea presents a bullish setup for EUR/USD based on a Falling Wedge pattern on the 1-hour chart. The price has broken above the wedge’s upper trendline, confirming a bullish move with a target of 1.92110. The setup includes a stop loss at 1.90730 to manage risk, offering an impressive risk-reward ratio of 11.55:1. Key levels to watch include the support at 1.90730 and the resistance at 1.92000. Traders should consider additional confirmation from volume and momentum indicators, as well as broader market conditions, before executing the trade. Since this chart is from April 2, 2025, market conditions may have evolved, and I can assist with searching for more recent data if needed!
EURUSD closing in on the key Fibonacci level. Intraday Update: The EURUSD is nearing the 1.0871 level as Europe announced that they are looking at measures to guard the economy from Trump Tariffs. That is the 61.8% retracement of the 1.0959 level to 1.0730.
EURUSD: Weak Market & Bearish Forecast
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current EURUSD chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the downward direction.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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EUR/USD - Played out perfectly Hi,
I have updated this trade idea many time since the start of March. Waiting for the retest of 1.075. We finally had the correction which gave us a perfect 2.75R return.
EURUSD - 2 APRIL, 2025EURUSD is already in my buy zone and i am waiting for price to sweep the previous day low and tap me in at exactly 1.07746. Having this in mind will keep me glued to see how price reacts to that zone and also my potential take profits.
EUR/USDbe ready it is penetrating down channel and line of reversible head$shoulders now
Entery point 1.0823
Target1 1.08829
Target2 1.09096
Stop loss closing below 1.07652
EURUSD 1April25 ReviewA review of price action, setups taken / missed. How we should have approached the market, and an overview of our performance during the day.
Long-Term Outlook: Potential for EUR/USD to Rise to 1.14917Opinion: Based on current analysis, I foresee the EUR/USD pair potentially rising to 1.14917 in the long term. This move could take several months to materialize, potentially extending into the first quarter of 2026.
Please note: This is not a trading signal but rather an opinion on possible market direction.
I encourage you to share your thoughts and opinions to foster constructive discussion for the benefit of all traders.
Thank you for your time and engagement.
EUR/USD Breaks Out of Ascending Triangle – SHORT SETUPEUR/USD has broken below the ascending triangle pattern, signaling potential downside movement.
The price is currently testing support at 1.0782, with the next key level around 1.0732.
A retest of the broken trendline may confirm further bearish momentum.
Traders watching for a short setup with a stop above 1.0812 and a target around 1.0732.
💡 Risk Management: Always follow a risk management strategy and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content is for personal record-keeping and educational purposes only. Traders should conduct their own research before making any trading decisions.
EUR/USD possible short setupCurrent news:
– European data: The EUR inflation flash reading and related core inflation numbers (high‐ and medium‐impact) are on the radar. Although the forecast for the headline rate was 2.1% (down from 2.3%), the eventual outcome remains unknown, leaving the market sensitive.
– U.S. indicators: Medium–to–high impact US manufacturing data (ISM PMI and job openings) scheduled later today may add volatility and influence risk sentiment.
• Trend Probability:
– Short Trade: With the price currently trading below the previously indicated support, a bearish continuation is more likely. Based on technical break and pending high-impact news, a short trade outcome is estimated at roughly a 65–70% probability.
– Long Trade: A countertrend bounce toward support is less likely given the breakdown. The probability for a successful long trade stands roughly at 30–35%.
• Technical Analysis:
– Support/Resistance: The key support area (historically around the 1.0800 level) has now been breached. This breakout suggests potential further declines, with lower support possibly near 1.0770–1.0760.
– Price Action & Indicators: Recent M15 candles have confirmed a downward slide beyond a previous rally zone, and while some oscillators show mixed readings, the overall picture reinforces bearish momentum.
– Moving averages: The 50– and 200–period SMAs remain closely monitored. The break below support suggests that price is not only declining but may struggle to regain grip above these averages.
• Trade Setups & Levels:
• Entry: Consider entering around the current price (roughly 1.0784–1.0786)
• Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss just above the previous support zone, around 1.0805 to limit risk in case of a reversal.
• Take Profit (TP): Aim for lower support targets near 1.0760 or even 1.0755, adjusting based on emerging price action.
Disclaimer: this is just an idea and not recommendation or any kind of advice.
The Day Ahead Key Events for Tuesday, April 1, 2025
Economic Data Releases:
US: ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending, JOLTS Job Openings, Vehicle Sales
China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Japan: Tankan Survey, Jobless Rate, Job-to-Applicant Ratio
Italy: Manufacturing PMI, Car Sales, Unemployment Rate, Budget Balance
Eurozone: CPI (Inflation), Unemployment Rate
Canada: Manufacturing PMI
Central Banks:
Fed: Barkin speaks
ECB: Lagarde & Lane speak
BoE: Greene speaks
RBA: Holds rates at 4.1%
Other:
US House Special Elections in Florida (Could impact markets)
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
A BUY/SELL side of EURUSDFrom Top Down Analysis Daily TF retracement happening. we are waiting for a sell side on 30minns once all liquidity is cleared out.
EURUSD: Eurozone CPI expectations and PMIs in Europe and the US.By Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
The EUR/USD trades cautiously on Tuesday, in a context marked by the release of key data that could define its direction in the coming days. The pair is trading slightly lower by 0.09%, reflecting investors' uncertainty ahead of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) and manufacturing PMIs in Europe and the United States.
Eurozone CPI under the spotlight
The market expects March CPI in the Eurozone to have risen by 2.2% y/y, one tenth less than in February, while core inflation could come in at 2.5%, also one tenth below the previous figure. A lower-than-expected figure could reinforce expectations of a more moderate stance by the European Central Bank (ECB), which would put further pressure on the euro against the dollar.
PMI and economic outlook
Manufacturing PMIs will also be released today in Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the UK, the Eurozone and the US. These data will offer insight into the health of the manufacturing sector and could influence perceptions of economic strength in both regions. If the data in Europe shows weakness and the US data beats expectations, the dollar could strengthen further, extending the downward pressure on the EURUSD.
Technical Analysis
The EURUSD is currently climbing in price since April 26th, supporting its climb at higher supports at each time 1.07364, 1.07649, 1.07913 its current POC, and today it has broken out generating support near 1.08 dollars per euro. If this price holds as support, we will see an increase in the value of the euro against the dollar. The 1-day chart shows an upward expansion of the averages, but if we go to 4 hours this expansion is much more timid. And in 1 hour this expansion is non-existent and the three averages are about to make a possible confluence of averages. In the Asian day there has been some correction with volume which could mark, together with the RSI currently at 43.10%, a recovery of the price. It is likely that in the news hours these prices will soar throughout the day, especially at the beginning of the American session that will put on the table the US data, which after the consequences of the tariff pressure are generating undesirable effects towards the United States, with its consequent weakening. If the U.S. data shows strength, the next area of movement for the dollar would be its second support indicated at 1.07649.
In this environment, investors will continue to watch bond market signals and central bankers' speeches for clues on future monetary policy decisions that could impact the EURUSD price. EURUSD remains in a key zone, with support at 1.08, awaiting inflation and PMI data. If European data disappoints and the US shows strength, the dollar could gain ground. The US session will set the direction of the pair.
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EURUSD Market analysishere is the EURUSD market analysis providing insight for the next comming days
