USDEUR trade ideas
explicaciรณn e idea 16 abril 2025๐ EUR/USD Analysis โ Looking for Buys ๐ถ๐ต
For me, EUR/USD is setting up for buys, even despite the news that might bring some noise to the market. Why? Because the current structure still shows bullish strength, and even though fundamentals can add pressure, price always speaks first.
๐ง But watch out: that doesnโt mean jumping in blindly. We need to wait for the setups, meaning price has to confirm with a clear structure:
Break with intention
Retest
Confirmation of liquidity grab
๐ Sometimes the market proves you rightโฆ but if you jump in too early, itโll still take you out. Thatโs why I prefer to let price show me the way. No guessing, no rushing.
๐ So stay alert: if the right pattern forms and key zones are respected, then we go all in on buys. Patience pays.
EURUSD EXPECTING TO GO LONG FROM MY POI Seen, that price is overall in a bullish structure on the higher timeframes (H4-H1), Will now find Entries in that direction following the pro trend .
We head to H1 And spotted our range and our break of structure to the upside after that will look for our premuim level of supply or demand using our fib tool which gave us the above Point of Interest we marked with our rectangle tool.
overall we wait for price to do its thing to get to that zone then will take either a risk entry or confirmation on that premuim level .
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 16, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today:
15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
EUR/USD is trading in positive territory around 1.1285 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US dollar (USD) is currently trading near a three-year low against the euro (EUR) as trade tensions persist.
On Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that the Trump administration's tariff policy was a major shock to the US economy that could force the central bank to cut rates to prevent a recession even if inflation remains high. At the same time, Atlanta FRB President Raphael Bostic said the Fed should hold rates until there is more clarity.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps on Thursday amid growing recession fears related to US tariffs.Analysts believe the ECB may cut all three key interest rates at its April meeting on Thursday. The ECB cut interest rates for the second consecutive time in March, bringing the deposit rate to 2.5 per cent. Further cuts would bring the rate down to 2.25%.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1260, SL 1.1360, TP 1.1080
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D16 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D16 Y25
GM.
This play could well materialise sooner rather than later.
The weekly higher time frame order block previously provided an incredible sell off. We have arrived and simply looking to get involved in the short party.
15' order block identified.
But a tap In London short? NO. We will await for 1' break of structure alongside bearish candle stick formations.
FRGNT X
EURUSD(20250416) Today's AnalysisMarket news:
U.S. import prices fell 0.1% in March from the previous month, the first month-on-month decline since September last year.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
1.1307
Support and resistance levels:
1.1421
1.1378
1.1350
1.1263
1.1235
1.1193
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 1.1307, consider buying, the first target price is 1.1350
If the price breaks through 1.1263, consider selling, the first target price is 1.1235
EURUSD climbing
EURUSD is currently moving in line with expectations.
Since the beginning of the week, it has been trading sideways, and yesterday it bounced off the 38.2% retracement level.
On the next bullish move, it's important to watch how it reacts to the previous high and whether it can continue with a strong impulse.
Today, FED Chair Powell has a press conference, which could lead to increased market volatility.
Tomorrow, the ECB's interest rate decision is expected.
Bearish Retracement Setup Near Key Fib ZoneThe FX:EURUSD is showing a strong bullish retracement after a longer-term downtrend. Price is now above the Ichimoku cloud, with Span A at 1.0851 and Span B at 1.0825, which shows temporary bullish momentum but not a confirmed trend reversal.
The area between the 61.8% (1.1402) and 78.6% (1.1907) Fibonacci retracement levels is a key supply zone. This zone also aligns with previous highs near 1.12, where the market seems to have grabbed liquidity before showing signs of exhaustion.
Both Trend Strength Index (TSI) indicators are in the overbought zone:
TSI(10): 0.92
TSI(20): 0.77
This shows strong momentum, but also that the move may be overextended and due for a correction. The current structure suggests a possible lower high forming, which supports the idea of a short entry if price reacts in this zone.
Short Setup Plan:
Entry zone: 1.1402 โ 1.1907 (Fibonacci zone)
Stop Loss: 1.25 (above the 100% retracement)
Targets:
TP1: 0.95 (key psychological level, previous lows)
TP2: 0.88 (extension zone)
Risk Reward Ratio: Over 2
This setup assumes the bullish retracement is temporary and price may continue the larger bearish trend.
EUR/USD is reacting to shifting expectations between the ECB and the Fed. While the Fed is expected to cut rates later in 2025, the ECB may move earlier due to weak growth and cooling inflation in the Eurozone. Recent ECB statements show a cautious tone. At the same time, the U.S. economy remains relatively strong. If the Fed delays cuts or the ECB moves faster, the euro could weaken again, supporting a bearish technical setup.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not represent financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.
EURUSD TRADE PLANS (BUY & SELL)๐ฅ EUR/USD TRADE PLAN
๐
Date: 15 April 2025
๐ Plan Type:
Dual-Sided Swing Plan
Buy Setup: Bullish Continuation from Demand
Sell Setup: Counter-Trend Reversal from Supply
๐ Bias:
๐ต Primary Bias: Bullish (HTF trend continuation)
๐ด Secondary Bias: Bearish (short-term exhaustion + liquidity grab)
๐ง Structure Observations:
Price has reacted off weekly supply near 1.1420+
Bearish engulfing confirmed on H4
Still bullish on HTF, unless 1.1180 breaks clean
Demand remains valid at prior breakout and imbalance zones
Volume support at breakout base (H4 OB region)
๐ข BUY PLAN โ BULLISH CONTINUATION
๐ฐ Confidence Levels:
๐ข Buy Plan โ Bullish Continuation
Confidence: โญโญโญโญ (80%)
โ
Reasons:
HTF uptrend still intact
Price respecting major demand zone structure
Clean reaction zones + recent bullish reaction wicks
๐ Entry Zones:
๐ฉ Primary Buy Zone: 1.1180 โ 1.1200
โ(FVG + H4 OB + H1 reaction point + 50 EMA region)
๐ Entry trigger: M15โH1 bullish engulfing or sweep-reclaim pattern
๐จ Secondary Buy Zone: 1.1110 โ 1.1135
โ(Deep demand + macro OB + previous resistance turned support)
๐ Entry only after liquidity sweep and reclaim on H1
โ Stop Loss:
Below 1.1090
โโ Clears all demand layers and invalidates bullish bias
๐ฏ Take Profits:
๐ฏ TP1: 1.1285 โ Reaction point & H1 imbalance top
๐ฏ TP2: 1.1340 โ Prior highs before supply zone
๐ฏ TP3: 1.1395 โ Supply edge retest / liquidity magnet
๐ด SELL PLAN โ REVERSAL FROM SUPPLY
๐ด Sell Plan โ Counter-Trend Reversal
Confidence: โญโญโญ (70%)
โ ๏ธ Reasons:
Near-term overextension visible from 1.14+ zone
Weekly supply unmitigated; wicks show rejection
Lower timeframes indicate momentum loss
But trend is still bullish overall (so more caution)
๐ Entry Zones:
๐ฅ Primary Sell Zone: 1.1340 โ 1.1385
โ(Weekly supply + wick fill + unmitigated imbalance)
๐ Confirmation: M15โH1 bearish divergence, exhaustion wick, or engulfing
๐ฅ Secondary Sell Zone: 1.1285 โ 1.1310
โ(Short-term supply pocket + FVG gap)
๐ Needs aggressive confirmation โ avoid early entry
โ Stop Loss:
Above 1.1405
โโ Invalidates supply and structure, breakout confirmed
๐ฏ Take Profits:
๐ฏ TP1: 1.1230 โ Intra-demand + mid FVG
๐ฏ TP2: 1.1180 โ Bullish entry zone
๐ฏ TP3: 1.1135 โ Final target at deep support zone
๐ RiskโReward Projection:
Buy Plan: Approx. 1:3.2 R:R
Sell Plan: Approx. 1:2.8 to 1:3.5 depending on execution
๐ Validity:
48 hours from plan release or upon break of SL levels on either side
๐ Fundamentals to Watch:
Upcoming Eurozone ZEW data + US retail sales
Fed rate sentiment remains dovish near-term
Watch bond yield volatility this week
๐ Final Summary:
EUR/USD is in a broader bullish structure but has now faced significant overhead supply. Short-term bearish pressure is visible, but structure remains intact unless 1.1090 is breached. Dual-plan allows traders to operate both edges with proper confirmation.
EURUSD Short Term Buy IdeaH4 - Strong bullish momentum
Higher highs on the moving averages of the MACD
No opposite signs
Expecting retraces and further continuation higher until the strong support zone holds.
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