EURUSD Stuck Between Key Support and Resistance LevelsEURUSD appears to be setting up for round two. The white trendline, which represents the long-term trend from 2008, was tested at the beginning of this week. The expected bounce followed, pushing EURUSD back toward the yellow trendline. Now, the pair is once again approaching to white trend.
A clear break below the trendline could easily push EURUSD lower in the coming weeks, possibly toward 1.07. However, the outlook remains uncertain, with new developments and data pointing in different directions.
My base case is that the range between the 1.1050โ1.11 support zone and the 1.1275 resistance will hold for a few more days. With limited U.S. data scheduled for next week, EURUSD may take the opportunity to consolidate and trade sideways.
Of course, if a breakout occurs in either direction, I would expect volatility to increase significantly.
USDEUR trade ideas
Short EUR/USD as Dollar Strength Tests Support Levels
Targets:
- T1 = $1.11000
- T2 = $1.10000
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $1.12500
- S2 = $1.13000
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Euro.
**Key Insights:**
The Euro has been under pressure as the US Dollar gains strength, driven by a combination of rising Treasury yields and hawkish Federal Reserve tones. While the Eurozone continues to battle inflation with restrictive monetary policies from the ECB, the stronger-than-expected economic data from the United States is weighing heavily on EUR/USD. Additionally, geopolitical tensions within Europe and concerns over energy supply vulnerabilities remain a backdrop for Euro weakness.
**Recent Performance:**
The past week saw the Euro encounter formidable resistance at $1.12500. This failed breakout attempt has led to renewed selling momentum, dragging the pair closer to the $1.11500 support zone. Intra-day volatility has been dictated by news flows around the Federal Reserve's future rate trajectory and Eurozone PMI figures. The pair closed the week with a 0.45% loss, underscoring the Dollarโs dominance.
**Expert Analysis:**
Short-term technical indicators, including the RSI hovering near 45 and the MACD line below its signal line, confirm bearish momentum. A breach below $1.11500 would open a path toward $1.11000, with $1.10000 being a likely secondary target if dollar appreciation persists. Analysts suggest that Euro bulls are holding out for a dovish pivot from the Fed at upcoming meetings; until then, downside risks remain prominent.
**News Impact:**
Upcoming events to monitor include the Eurozone CPI release and the US Federal Reserve's minutes, which are expected to provide clearer policy direction. A continuation of strong US economic data could further widen the interest rate differential in favor of the dollar, sealing a bearish trend for EUR/USD. Energy pricing developments, particularly natural gas flows into Europe, will also be critical for market sentiment.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Based on the current economic and technical landscape, a short position on EUR/USD offers a strong risk/reward ratio. The USDโs momentum, coupled with weaker Eurozone fundamentals, solidifies the case for downside exploration. Traders are advised to set tight stops above $1.12500 to minimize risk and keep an eye on key support levels for potential profit-taking opportunities.
EURUSD May 19 Trade Executed EURUSD
May 19 Trade Executed
2 London Macro
Parent range equilibrium
Previous range coming into Asia premium
Narrative
*I suspected Sundays delivery to be aggressive, retracing Fridays inefficient delivered price, glad it did, setting up for a run on equal highs.
*Asia expanded with typical swing low back to 50 level to consolidate.
*Sell side taken the last session high probability for price to seek equal highs.
(I was a little shaky with my idea reading the minute charts which I need to read the candle formations but it sure swings my emotions)
Frame work-from 3 min TF
22:00 Price stayed above the 18:00 candle created a minor equal low.
0:03 FVG forms first presented FVG
1:09 creates a clean equal high and breaks down
1:45 candle barely takes minor sell side liquidity
1:51 energetic candle rallies away and breaks the swing high
2:00 comes down in the FVG
2:03 entered Price 1.11880
First target minor equal highs
Second target equal highs
Third target equal highs
Forth target the 1SD and FVG/NWOG
Exited 4:18 Price1.12492
Admittedly I had a lower price and when I did not get tagged in I did instant order -rule breaker, plus slip got me higher, its ok
NOTE I had to build my execution off GBP/DXY price action for confidence
NOTE I did buy above the 50 in a premium for this trade-rule breaker
This is one of my best trades, the most calm I have been and holding it was hard and trusting that price would hit the targets.
rinse wash and repeat, so grateful I m getting better every trade. Blessed!
EURUSD outlook 19 - 23 MayPrice reached the area of interest I marked out a couple weeks back and is currently showing a very good reaction. I do not have any sort of entry as of yet as I am waiting for a 2 Hour internal shift. Once I see that shift I will wait for a pullback and then entry into a long trade targeting the high.
All the best and have a good week
EURUSD 4H: Breakout or Bust at 1.1250?On the 4H timeframe, EURUSD is currently trading at 1.12450, sitting just below a key resistance level at 1.1250. This level is notable as it aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of a recent bullish wave and has historically rejected price advances, reinforcing a bearish tone after multiple tests. A breakout above 1.1250 could ignite further upside momentum, potentially driving the pair toward 1.1389, a target derived from recent trade setups. However, if the price fails to breach this resistance, a pullback toward the support zone at 1.1150, where buyers have previously stepped in, becomes likely.
Technical indicators will be key to decoding the pairโs next move. Watch the 50-period and 200-period moving averages on the 4H chart: if the price holds above these levels, it signals bullish strength, but a drop below could flip the trend bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is another tool to monitor, overbought conditions near 1.1250 might hint at a reversal, while oversold readings near 1.1150 could suggest a bounce. Look out for RSI divergence too, as it often flags weakening momentum before a shift occurs. These tools together can help pinpoint entry and exit zones.
In summary, EURUSD is at a crossroads on the 4H chart, testing the 1.1250 resistance with 1.1150 as the next support below. A clean break above 1.1250 opens the door to higher targets like 1.1389, while a rejection could see sellers push toward 1.1150. Use moving averages and RSI to time your trades, and stay alert for news that could jolt the market. With the pair consolidating between these levels, patience will pay off, wait for confirmation before jumping in.
EURUSD - LongA breakout of the bearish trendline indicates a potential trend reversal.
The pair has also broken above the previous lower high, signaling a shift in market structure from bearish to bullish.
A bullish divergence on the RSI adds further confluence, showing weakening bearish momentum and potential for upward movement.
Price is consolidating above key levels, indicating strong buyer interest and accumulation.
EUR/USD โ Symmetrical Triangle Breakout & Bullish Continuation๐ Overview
The EUR/USD pair has presented a classic and high-probability trading setup based on a symmetrical triangle formation, which recently experienced a bullish breakout. This pattern has formed after a period of compression and consolidation, creating a coiled spring scenario. Technical traders often watch for such breakouts as they signal the resumption of momentum with clear entry, stop-loss, and target zones.
This chart combines pattern recognition, key price action levels, psychological curve mapping, and structured trade planning. Letโs dive deeper into each component.
๐งฑ 1. Chart Structure and Pattern Analysis
๐ท Symmetrical Triangle Formation
A symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern formed when price action contracts between two converging trendlines.
This represents market indecision โ both buyers and sellers are cautious, gradually narrowing the price range.
In this setup, the triangle has been forming since May 11, 2025, with a visible tightening of price action.
The chart shows well-respected upper and lower trendlines, confirmed with multiple touches on both sides.
๐ผ Breakout Confirmation
A breakout occurred from the triangle's upper boundary around May 19, with a strong bullish candle closing above the structure.
Breakouts from symmetrical triangles often lead to sharp movements due to built-up pressure during the consolidation phase.
The volume typically expands at breakout zones (although volume is not displayed, price behavior implies it).
๐ Retesting Area
Price may revisit the broken trendline (previous resistance โ now support) for a retest before continuing higher.
This "retesting area" provides an ideal entry for those who missed the initial breakout.
Retests validate the breakout and confirm buyer strength.
๐งฑ 2. Key Levels and Market Dynamics
๐ป Minor Resistance Zone (~1.13700โ1.14100)
This zone has previously acted as a supply area where sellers pushed price down multiple times.
Price may hesitate or range within this area before breaking higher.
If bulls maintain control, breaking through this resistance zone will add confirmation to the bullish momentum.
๐ Target Projection: 1.14662
The target is derived by measuring the height of the triangle and projecting it from the breakout point.
It also aligns with a previous horizontal resistance level and psychological round number area.
This zone could act as a medium-term profit-taking level for swing traders.
๐ง 3. Black Mind Curve โ Market Psychology in Play
The "Black Mind Curve" is a representation of anticipated market sentiment and price flow.
It reflects a wave-like journey post-breakout โ early breakout, pullback, bullish continuation, minor consolidation, and final push toward the target.
Such curves are used to forecast crowd behavior patterns, capturing how traders typically react post-breakout:
๐ Initial breakout โ Profit taking โ Retest โ Re-entry โ Final impulsive move.
๐งฎ 4. Trading Strategy & Execution Plan
โ
Trade Setup
Entry:
Breakout Entry (already active)
OR Retest Entry near the triangleโs upper boundary for conservative traders.
Stop-Loss (SL) :
Placed just below the triangleโs lower boundary at 1.11726.
This level invalidates the breakout and prevents deeper drawdowns.
Take-Profit (TP):
Final target at 1.14662, offering excellent risk-to-reward potential.
๐ Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
Depending on the entry (breakout or retest), the RR can range from 1:2.5 to 1:3.5, which is ideal for swing or short-term position traders.
๐ 5. Educational Insight
This pattern illustrates the importance of:
Price compression zones (triangles and wedges) as precursors to momentum trades.
Confirmation via breakout candles before entering high-conviction setups.
Patience during retests, which allow re-entries with defined risk and improved pricing.
Blending technical structure with psychological forecasting to stay aligned with market sentiment.
๐ Conclusion
EUR/USD is showing a technically sound and psychologically supportive setup for bullish continuation. The symmetrical triangle has broken with strength, and price is heading toward key resistance with momentum.
If you're already long โ consider holding until the target is hit or trailing stops to protect profits. If you're not in yet โ watch for a retest to join the move with precision.
๐ Always remember to manage risk effectively. No setup is guaranteed, but trading based on structure, confluence, and price behavior improves your edge
EURUSD BUY ๐ EUR/USD NY Session Plan โ May 20
Price pushing into key supply zone
๐ช Watch 1.12830 โ 1.13100 closely
๐ 2 short setups prepared:
๐ป Option A Entry: 1.12839
๐ฏ TP: 1.12488
๐ SL: 1.12940
๐ป Option B Entry: 1.13101
๐ฏ TP: 1.12588
๐ SL: 1.13269
๐ฌ Forecast only. Waiting for NY open reaction.
โฐ Let price spike first โ
Donโt short early. Watch 15M candle rejection or M5 engulf inside the zone before pulling trigger.
EUR/USD Set for Bullish Continuation: Key Levels to WatchEUR/USD shows strong bullish momentum across all timeframes, signaling a potential continuation rally. On the daily chart, the pair remains above key EMAs (55, 89, 200), with support near 1.1100 and resistance at 1.1228 and 1.1400. The RSI suggests consolidation, but overall structure favors the bulls.
The hourly chart confirms a fresh bullish breakout above the 200 EMA at 1.1215, supported by increased volume and a rising RSI. Price action suggests a retest of the 1.1190โ1.1215 zone as a buying opportunity.
On the 15-minute chart, EUR/USD is overbought short-term, but momentum remains strong. A pullback into the 1.1190โ1.1200 zone could offer low-risk scalping entries targeting 1.1225โ1.1240.
The week-ahead plan favors dip-buying strategies. Initial targets are 1.1250 and 1.1300, with stops below 1.1180. A close above 1.1228 on the daily chart would confirm room for broader upside. Manage risk with staggered entries and hard stops.
EURUSD: Weekly overviewThe indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
These points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
After reacting to the following zones, you can enter the trade. Place the stop loss slightly above/below the zone to which the reaction was shown. The profit point is the next zone.
The drawn channels and their medians can also be considered as moving support and resistance. I usually use them as target points.
* Zones are not disturbed in this analysis.
This analysis is valid until the end of the week.
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Important news that could change the direction of the trade:
Monday: EURO CPI of April
Friday: German GDP
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We all now Trump tries to weaken USD to improve US trade efficiency, but all of these efforts might have reversal effects in short-term movements.
Best Regards
Long?Here is the translation of the Russian text into English:
"In the context of the reaction to the internal BSL, the price made a raid on the internal SSL within the H4 FVG, so with a higher probability, the price will move towards the H4 FVG as an FTA and a decision point, which will determine the further context of price movement. In case of its inversion, the idea of price movement towards targets in the premium zone will be validated."
EURUSD, Position TradeStill holding a bullish bias on EURUSD.
Price has respected the Monthly Orderblock from Jan 1st, 2001 and has continued to show strength, rejecting the lows and pushing higher. The market has cleared the Sellside liquidity and is now drawing toward Buyside Liquidity and the Fair Value Gap (FVG) above.
We are still within the accumulation and expansion phase based on the ICT AMD (Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution) framework. As long as price holds above the Major Institutional Level (1.1000), I remain long-biased targeting the FVG and higher Buystops.
DXY remains bearish, further supporting this bias.
EUR/USD 1H analysis๐งฑ Supply and Demand Zones
Supply Zones (Red/Orange boxes):
1.13996 - 1.13812: Major untested supply; strong selling pressure expected.
1.12930 - 1.12658: Cluster of supply zones; significant resistance area.
1.12281 - 1.12198: Recently formed supply, tested once.
1.11704 - 1.11645: Currently active supply zone; price just rejected this level.
Demand Zone (Blue box):
1.10653: Strong demand zone from previous swing low; price bounced significantly here on May 13.
๐ Trend and Price Action
Trend: Short-term bearish.
Price has made lower highs and lower lows.
A large bearish impulse drop occurred between May 13 and 14.
Minor consolidation is forming after the recent drop.
Current Price: Around 1.11614 โ just below a supply zone (1.11704 - 1.11645) and under the influence of selling pressure.
Recent Reaction:
The price attempted to move up but was rejected at the supply zone.
Now pulling back and potentially targeting lower demand levels.
๐ Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
1.11704 - 1.11645 (Immediate)
1.12281
1.12800
Support:
1.10653 (Major Demand)
Intermediate minor supports may form during the descent.
๐ Potential Scenarios
Bearish Continuation:
Price may continue lower towards the demand zone at 1.10653.
If this level breaks, it could lead to further downside, possibly forming new demand.
Bullish Reversal:
If price breaks and holds above 1.11704, the next test could be the 1.12198 - 1.12281 supply zone.
Bullish confirmation would require breaking 1.12930 with strength.
๐ง Summary
Market structure favors short-term bears.
Strong supply zones are capping upside.
The key demand at 1.10653 is the next potential support.
Traders may look for short entries near supply and long opportunities near demand, depending on confirmation and context.
Pair: USD/EUR (U.S. Dollar vs Euro)๐ป Trade Type: Short (Sell Setup)
Current Price: 0.8956
Timeframe: 30-Minute Chart
๐ Technical Setup
Pattern: Rising wedge / triangle near resistance โ bearish breakout potential
Entry Point: Just below 0.8965โ0.8956, after rejection from triangle resistance (yellow circle)
Structure:
Lower high near resistance zone (0.8984)
Price forming a tightening range with potential to break down
๐ฏ Targets & Stop-Loss
Take-Profit (TP):
TP1: 0.8927 (support zone)
TP2: 0.8888 (major support level)
Stop-Loss (SL):
Above resistance: 0.8984
โ๏ธ Risk-to-Reward (R:R):
Estimated R:R: ~2:1 or better
Good risk control by placing SL just above the recent spike
๐ง Trade Logic
Strong resistance at 0.8984 held firm
Price rejected from top of the wedge
Clear path to retest lower support zones
Consolidation breakout setup favors bears if breakdown confirms
How to Control FOMO in Trading โ ARX Mindset ShiftFOMO is one of the most destructive emotions for traders.
The ARX approach is all about patience, precision, and planning:
โ
Wait for your setup, not your emotions
โ
Trust your system, not the hype
โ
A missed trade is better than a rushed loss
Trade like a sniper, not a follower.
Master your mindset, and the market becomes clearer.
โ ARX | Price & Time