Get started

U.S. Dollar / Euro

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals Economic Calendar

USDEUR trade ideas

EURUSD FORECAST FY25 TIDES TURNINGi dont usually do forex unless its big yields like this the concerning kind im bearish on dxy so im going to take the time to call out what i see i believe the us is in over its head and might jus transition to crypto as their legal tender to save themselves global de dollarisation sentiment (geopolitical tensions and sanctions have proven how dollar can be a liability) national debt cant keep playing jenga with that inflation might just respike with how they want to print more while cutting interest rates while still not having dropped it to the 2% target nations like japan suffered from the covid stimulus nobody will repeat that mistake they will divert their dollar assets into something else like gold not enough tho maybe euros id need to research into their holdings but i wont be suprised if nations dropping dollar instruments its all just strategic for economic resilience looking out for number 1 japan is a loco one they shot rates up 17% from nowhere bro spontaneous
Long
by Bekiumuzi_Dube
ECB rate announcement in focusthe European Central Bank (ECB) will be in focus today at 12:15 pm GMT and is anticipated to reduce rates amid recent CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) softening by more-than-expected in May to 1.9% at the headline year-on-year (YY) level from 2.2% in April. YY core inflation – a measure that excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices – also softened to 2.3% in May from 2.7% in April. I believe the last thing the ECB wants to do is shock the markets today, so I would be very surprised if they maintained rates at current levels. The decision, however, will be far from unanimous, with divisions among the 26 members who make up the ECB’s decision-making body. Markets expect the central bank to reduce all three benchmark rates by 25 bps, which would lower the deposit facility rate to 2.00% and the refinancing rate to 2.15%. If the ECB proceeds with another rate cut, this would mark the eighth reduction since the central bank commenced its easing cycle in mid-2024. With a rate cut already baked in, I think the question top of mind among investors is what comes next. The ECB will likely want to signal a pause following today's cut, albeit a ‘dovish pause’. In the ECB’s macroeconomic projections, analysts are also expecting notable downward revisions to inflation and growth. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how they convey this via language in their rate statement and in ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference. However, I find it very unlikely that forward guidance will provide a clear path, and the central bank is likely to remain in a data-dependent mode. While a dovish cut from the ECB could send the EUR/USD southbound today, I expect it to be short-lived if US employment data comes in lower than expected on Friday. Despite a temporary push lower potentially unfolding in the pair today, I remain bullish EUR/USD. As shown on the chart, the pair is shaking hands with monthly resistance from US$1.1457. Those who regularly follow my research will know that I am not enthusiastic about this level, given the inability of price to push through monthly support at US$1.1134 in May. Should follow-through buying emerge and US$1.1457 bids are consumed, I will be watching monthly resistance as far north as US$1.2028-US$1.1930. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Long
by FPMarkets
EURUSD Volatility Alert - ECB Rate Decision/US Non-farm PayrollsEURUSD has experienced a choppy start to the week so far. Initially trading from opening levels around 1.1345 up to a 6-week high of 1.1455 early Tuesday morning, before running into profit taking and then bouncing between these two levels in response to various drivers, including updates on US/China trade discussions, Eurozone inflation, US economy ,and constantly changing interest rate differentials. Looking forward, there may be potential for this type of price action to continue over the next two trading days, as traders first digest the ECB interest rate decision, which is released at 1315 BST later today, then the comments of ECB President Lagarde in the press conference that commences at 1345 BST. A 25bps (0.25%) interest rate cut from the ECB is fully anticipated, so is unlikely to cause much of a stir. However, comments from Madame Lagarde in the press conference could lead to volatile EURUSD price action, depending on if she outlines whether policymakers remain open to further cuts, as Eurozone inflation (May CPI 1.9% YoY) moves below the central bank’s 2% target, or if now is the time for a pause to assess the potential impact of US tariffs and future European defence/infrastructure spending. On Friday, the dollar side of the EURUSD currency pair, could be impacted significantly by the outcome of the latest update on the US labour market in the form of the US Non-farm Payrolls release at 1330 BST. Data out earlier in the week has so far offered a mixed assessment of the US labour market during the on-going trade tariff uncertainty. However this payrolls update is the one that usually grabs the attention of traders and investors and probably holds more significance. Their focus is likely to be on the direction of the unemployment rate (currently 4.2%) and average hourly earnings, where any large deviation from market expectations may see EURUSD volatility increase into the weekend, especially if it indicates a weakness in the US economy. Technical Update: Today’s ECB announcement, followed by payrolls on Friday, has the potential to be the next important EURUSD sentiment driver, with the reaction to these events possibly offering clues to the next path for price activity. It has already been an impressive recovery in EURUSD since the May 12th session low at 1.1065, a move that has now seen closing breaks above resistance at 1.1425, which is equal to the April 28th last recovery failure high. However, as we approach the ECB decision and payrolls release, what are the potential support and resistance levels traders may be watching? Potential Resistance Levels: Price strength so far this week has been capped by sellers at 1.1455 on June 3rd. As such, this level represents a first possible resistance focus, as having found sellers at this point previously, they may be found again. While breaks above the 1.1455 high will not guarantee continued price strength, it could open potential for an upside push in price towards the April 21st high 1.1573, possibly further, if this were to give way on a closing basis. Potential Support Levels: After a period of price strength, such as that seen since the May 12th low, it is potentially the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the upside move, which in EURUSD stands at 1.1306, that may be viewed as a first support. As such, if breaks below 1.1306 are seen over coming sessions, it may lead to a deeper decline in price towards 1.1214, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, possibly further. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 5, 2025 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair is trading cautiously, slightly above the key level of 1.14000 during Thursday's Asian trading session. The major currency pair is expected to remain in a sideways trend as investors await the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision. The ECB is almost certain to cut its key lending rates by 25 basis points (bps), bringing the deposit rate and the main refinancing rate to 2% and 2.15%, respectively. This will be the ECB's seventh consecutive interest rate cut and the eighth since June last year, when it began its cycle of monetary expansion. Traders are increasingly confident of a seventh consecutive ECB interest rate cut as deflationary trends persist in the eurozone. Preliminary data from the eurozone's harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) released on Tuesday showed that inflationary pressure fell below the central bank's 2% target. With the Fed widely expected to cut interest rates, investors will be watching ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference closely for clues on likely monetary policy in the second half of the year. Market participants would also like to hear about the progress of trade negotiations with the US. Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) is struggling to stay near a six-week low as weak US data has reignited stagflation risks. The ISM Services PMI unexpectedly declined in May, while its components showed that production costs continue to rise rapidly. ADP employment change data, which reflects labor demand in the private sector, showed that 37,000 new jobs were created in May, the lowest figure since February 2021. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.14100, SL 1.14400, TP 1.13600
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD – Daily Chart AnalysisPrice has approached a major resistance zone (1.1415 area), which has previously acted as a strong barrier. A bearish rejection is visible, indicating potential for a downside move if price fails to break above convincingly. 📉 Bearish Scenario in Focus Resistance Zone: 1.1415 – 1.1450 Target 1: 1.1231 Target 2: 1.1068 Target 3: 1.0746 A clean rejection from the resistance zone may trigger a move toward the marked support levels. Confirmation from candlestick patterns or momentum indicators would strengthen this outlook. ⚠️ This idea is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Short
by MX1_Trader
1
EUR/USD Coils Below Resistance Ahead of ECB, NFPEuro broke above the April downtrend last month with price surging more than 3.5% off the May low. The advance failed at technical resistance into the start of June at the 1.618% extension of the May advance near 1.1455. The focus is on a reaction off this mark with a breakout of the weekly opening-range to offer some guidance in the days ahead. The weekly-range is now set just above the objective weekly / monthly open at 1.1347. Subsequent support seen at the 2023 swing high at 1.1276 with near-term bullish invalidation at the 2024 swing high / 61.8% retracement at 1.1214- a break / close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger reversal is underway towards key support at 1.1040/74. A topside breach of the weekly opening range exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 2025 high-day close (HDC) at 1.1514 and 1.1564/73- a region defined by the 100% extension of the May advance and the yearly swing high. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a daily close above needed to mark uptrend resumption / fuel the next major leg of the Euro advance towards 1.17. Bottom line: A breakout of the April downtrend is now testing the first major resistance hurdle with the weekly / monthly opening-ranges taking shape just below- look for the breakout. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.1214 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the yearly high needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. ECB on tap tomorrow with NFPs slated for Friday- stay nimble into the weekly close. -MB
by FOREXcom
1
EURO/USD significant price move or breakout.1. Support and Supply Zones: SUPPORT zone is marked in green at the bottom, around the 1.0400–1.0600 level. SUPPLY zone is labeled and marked slightly above the March price action (mid-chart). 2. CHoCH (Change of Character): Marked on the chart to indicate a potential trend reversal or significant shift in market sentiment (typically when a previous high/low is broken in the opposite direction). 3. NE (New Entry or New Expansion): Marked near a price peak, possibly indicating a significant price move or breakout. 4. Channel: A bullish ascending channel is drawn where the price was moving upward within parallel trendlines. 5. Projected Movement: A forecast is shown with an arrow pointing upward inside a green and red box: Green area = Target/Profit zone Red area = Stop loss zone The forecast suggests a bullish move after a potential consolidation. 6. Date/Time: X-axis ends in June and shows historical price movement from early 2025 (around January–April). Current chart time (bottom right) is 04:51:38 UTC. Trading Sentiment The chart indicates a bullish sentiment on EUR/USD, expecting price to: Hold above the support Break or continue through CHoCH Possibly reach the target zone near 1.1600–1.1800
Long
by Johnson67
EURUSD: Twin Channel Up structure aims for 1.14950.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.016, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 22.852) as it maintains a bullish structure consisting of successive Channel Up patterns. We are currently on the 2nd, with the price supported by both the 30m MA50 and MA200. The 1st Channel Up peaked after a +1.29% rise. We remain bullish, aiming for a similar rise, TP = 1.14950. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
EURUSD - Potential Bearish ContinuationEURUSD recently tapped into a 4-hour Fair Value Gap, aligning perfectly with a prior liquidity sweep just above the recent swing high. This zone acted as a magnet for buy-side liquidity, and price reacted sharply once that liquidity was taken out. The rejection confirms this area was used by larger players to offload positions rather than push higher. Rejection and Structure Shift After the sweep and tap into the FVG, we saw an immediate and aggressive bearish reaction, signaling a clear rejection of higher prices. Momentum flipped decisively, breaking smaller structural points on the way down. The rejection is not just technical, it’s reactive, showing that the intent was never to sustain the breakout. Break of Support Zone and Bearish Setup Price is now testing the critical mid-range structure marked in red. This zone previously held as support multiple times, but it is now under pressure. If we get a clean 4H close below this area, it confirms a market structure shift and opens the door for further downside. Bearish Target and Liquidity Zone Below If the break confirms, the next logical move would be a push down into the broader support area below. That zone holds untapped liquidity and marks the base of the recent rally. A sweep of those lows would align perfectly with the narrative of a failed breakout, followed by a deeper correction. Conclusion The rejection from the 4H Fair Value Gap, combined with a liquidity sweep and a pending structure break, builds a clean bearish case. A confirmed close below the marked zone would shift this into a continuation setup, with expectations for a move toward the lower support and a potential sweep of the lows. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Short
by TehThomas
67
Can it stabilize above 1.14?The euro against the US dollar traded in a narrow range during the North American session, with the current exchange rate consolidating near the 1.14 level as the market awaits the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision this Thursday. In the US, the ADP employment data far missed expectations, with private sector employment increasing by only 37,000 in May—significantly below the market forecast of 115,000. This weak data triggered a decline in the US dollar, pushing the EUR/USD exchange rate to rebound to the 1.1400 zone. While the exchange rate is expected to continue its rebound momentum, its upside potential remains limited. If the key resistance level of 1.1418 is effectively broken, it could open the door for further upward movement to the 1.1450-1.1480 range. Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Long
by Ashbur
EUR/USD is about to clarify its trend direction 💡Message Strategy The recent trend of the euro is affected by the resonance of multiple macroeconomic factors. First, the eurozone CPI data for May showed that the overall annual rate dropped sharply from 2.2% to 1.9%, and the core CPI annual rate also fell to 2.3%, hitting a one-year low, which suppressed the market demand for the euro. This cooling trend of inflation has significantly strengthened the market's expectations that the European Central Bank will further cut interest rates. The current market has fully taken into account the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday, and even expectations of further rate cuts in July have fermented. At the same time, US economic data is still weak. The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5, which has been in the contraction range for several consecutive months. In addition, the JOLTS job vacancies may hit a new low, which makes the dollar bulls lack support. In general, the euro is facing a tug-of-war between the eurozone's easing expectations and the weakness of the US dollar, and the market is generally optimistic about the trend. 📊Technical aspects From the K-line pattern, the long and short sides are stuck near 1.1400, and a unilateral trend has not yet formed. It is worth noting that the high point of 1.1572 in mid-April has formed an obvious resistance band so far, and the upper 1.1500 is a psychological integer mark, and it is also the previous high, forming the first key resistance line. If it breaks through this level, it may usher in further upward space. In terms of MACD indicators, the bar chart is currently oscillating near the zero axis, and the fast and slow lines are above the zero axis, indicating that the bullish momentum is dominant. RSI remains at 57.94, which is in the neutral to strong range, but has not entered the overbought area, and there is still potential for short-term growth. 💰 Strategy Package Long Position:1.13750-1.13850
Long
by TheodoreSilas
1
EURUSD What Next? SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for EURUSD is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1401 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 1.1380 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
4
EURUSD is moving within the 1.13230 - 1.14550 range👉🏼Possible scenario: The euro (EUR) dropped 0.64% vs. the U.S. dollar (USD) on June 3 after eurozone inflation missed estimates, rising just 1.9% YoY in May vs. the expected 2%. The softer print boosted bets on a 25 bps ECB rate cut this week, likely the last before a pause. The OECD also cut its global growth forecast, citing rising trade tensions and inflation risks. It now sees GDP slowing from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% by 2026. On June 4, EURUSD held steady in early trading. Attention shifts to key U.S. data: ADP Employment (12:15 p.m. UTC) and ISM Services PMI (2:00 p.m. UTC). Strong results may pressure EURUSD lower; weak numbers could push it toward 1.1450. ✅Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.13230 Resistance level is located at 1.14550
by MaxOnMarkets