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EUR/USD Slumps Below 1.1200, Risk of Deeper PullbackEUR/USD is breaking down after failing to hold the 1.1200 resistance level. The pair is now testing support at the 50-day SMA near 1.1110, with momentum clearly shifting bearish: 📉 MACD has rolled over into negative territory 📊 RSI at 43 and trending lower 🔵 Next support zone: 1.1040 (38.2% Fib of March–April rally) 🔵 Further levels to watch: 1.0875 = 50% retracement 1.0710 = 61.8% Fib and near the 200-day SMA A close below 1.1100 would confirm the bearish reversal and increase risk of a deeper correction toward the mid-1.08s. -MW
by FOREXcom
EURUSD: US inflation on scheduleThe most important event during the previous week was the FOMC meeting. The Fed left interest rates unchanged, as was expected. In an after-the-meeting statement, the FOMC members noted that they will stay committed to their dual mandate, bringing inflation toward targeted 2% and maximum employment. Still, considering ongoing challenges for the economy, especially those related to trade tariffs, the Fed Chair Powell noted that the Fed will be ready to act immediately if threats to the economy emerge in the future period. As for macro data published during the week, the US ISM Services PMI was standing at 51,6 in April, above market consensus of 50,6. The Balance of Trade reached $-140,5B, which represents a higher deficit from forecasted $-137B. The Factory Orders in Germany were higher by 3,6% in March, beating market expectations at 1,3%. The HCOB Construction PMI in April in the Euro Zone reached the level of 46, while the same indicator for Germany was at the level of 45,1. The Retail Sales in the Euro Zone in March dropped by -0,1% for the month, reaching a 1,5% increase on a yearly basis. The Balance of Trade in Germany reached euro 21,1B in March, higher from forecasted euro 20,8B. The Industrial Production in Germany in March was higher by 3% for the month, significantly above market expectation of 0,5%. As expected, the FOMC meeting caused higher volatility on financial markets. Currently, the most sensitive topics are related to further decrease of the US interest rates and potential negative impact of trade tariffs on the US economy. Since Fed Chair Powell brought some confidence to market participants that the Fed is ready to react in case of worsening economic conditions, the US Dollar gained in strength. The eurusd currency pair started the week around the level of 1,1370 and moved to the downside for the rest of the week, ending it at 1,1248. The RSI started its stronger move toward the level of 50, indicating the potential that the market will soon look at the oversold market side. The MA50 continues to strongly diverge from MA200, confirming further the cross occurred some time ago. The US April inflation figures are scheduled for a release on Tuesday next week. Depending on figures, there is some probability of higher market volatility. The support line at 1,12 has been shortly tested during the previous week. The start of the week ahead might bring some further testing of this level. In case that this level is broken to the downside, then the next supporting level will be at 1,11, but this is not a significant level, on a historical scale of eurusd movements. There is also an equal probability that the market will shortly revert to the upside, when 1,13 might be tested for one more time. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for May for the Euro Zone and Germany, Inflation Rate in Germany, final for April, Industrial Production in the EuroZone, GDP Growth Rate Q/Q, second estimate for Q1, USD: Inflation Rate in April, Producers Price Index in April, Industrial Production in April, Building Permits preliminary for April, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for May
by XBTFX
EURUSD broke the Support line 1.11960 👀Possible scenario: The euro (EUR) edged up 0.19% on May 9 amid optimism over trade deals. The U.S. dollar remained under pressure from unpredictable trade policies but stabilized after the Fed signaled no near-term rate cuts. With a quiet macroeconomic calendar on May 12, market volatility is expected to stay low, though end-of-week position adjustments could trigger sharp moves. Traders are watching April inflation data for signs of tariff impact. EUR/USD remains bearish below the key 1.13000 level. ✅Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.09500. Resistance level is now located at 1.13700.
by MaxOnMarkets
Short trade 1Hr TF overview 🟥 Sellside Trade Log 📉 Pair: EUR/USD 🏷️ Type: Intraday | Tokyo Session AM 🧠 Setup: Breakdown from Triangle + Resistance 🆔 Trade ID: #EURUSD-0512A 📅 Date: Monday, 12th May 2025 🕑 Time: 2:00 AM 🔹 Entry Price: 1.12309 🔹 Profit Target: 1.10713 (-1.42%) 🔹 Stop Loss: 1.12424 (+0.10%) 🔹 Risk-Reward Ratio: 13.88 🔍 Reasoning: Sellside trade taken following a breakdown from a triangle formation, with price rejecting firmly from a well-established resistance zone. The structure showed compression into resistance, followed by a decisive break to the downside during the Tokyo AM session. Entry was timed at the base of the pattern as momentum shifted, aligning with expected liquidity sweep beneath the formation.
Short
by davidjulien369
1
EURUSD Analysis – Waiting for Reaction at Key Demand Zone OANDA:EURUSD Technical Outlook: EURUSD is forming a potential bullish continuation pattern. I'm watching for a retracement to the demand zone around 1.1196, where a long opportunity may present itself if bullish confirmation appears. Buy Scenario: Wait for price to dip into 1.1196 zone Look for bullish price action signals Target: 1.1395 Stop loss: Below 1.1160 Sell Scenario (if broken): Clean break of 1.1196, followed by retest (pullback) Target: 1.0953 Note: This setup is based on key market structure levels and potential reaction zones. I update my levels weekly and track how price respects them. For detailed entry points, trade management, and high-probability setups, follow the channel: @ForexCSP
Long
by ForexCSP
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 12, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD is retreating from the gains made in the previous session, trading near 1.12400 in Monday's Asian session. The Euro (EUR) has been under pressure since European Central Bank (ECB) official Olli Rehn said last week that the ECB may consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting, provided that upcoming forecasts confirm a continued trend of disinflation and slowing economic growth. Despite this, EUR/USD found some support thanks to optimism surrounding the trade talks between the US and China that took place in Geneva. Both sides reported “substantial progress” after two days of talks aimed at de-escalating the ongoing trade dispute. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng called the talks an “important first step” in stabilizing bilateral relations, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed his sentiment, noting significant progress. Markets are now awaiting Washington's response to the European Commission's proposed countermeasures against U.S. tariffs. On Thursday, the Commission launched a public consultation that outlined potential tariffs on up to 95 billion euros worth of imports from the U.S. if trade talks break down. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic outlook remains uncertain. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have noted the risk of stagflation, and Fed Chairman Michael Barr has warned that higher tariffs could disrupt supply chains, leading to higher inflation, lower growth and higher unemployment. Investors remain cautious as further escalation of trade tensions could pose serious problems for the US economy. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.12300, SL 1.11900, TP 1.13000
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Looking at sell limit at 1.12759Trading Journal Entry – Trade Setup: Considering a sell limit order around the 1.12759 level. Rationale: Upon analyzing the higher timeframes (H4/Daily), I’ve identified multiple key resistance zones converging near the 1.12759 area. This price level has acted as a significant supply zone in the past, where selling pressure has consistently overwhelmed buying interest. Additionally, the current market structure shows signs of bullish exhaustion, with price approaching an overextended zone after a strong upward move.
Short
by SkyLegendary
EUR/USD Price Action Update – May 12, 2025📊 EUR/USD Price Action Update – May 12, 2025 🔹Current Price: 1.12300 🔹Timeframe: 1H 📌 Key Observation: 🔹Price tapped demand zone and bounced, forming a potential higher low. A bullish structure shift may be developing. ⚡️Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation: If price breaks and retests 1.12430 with strong 15M bullish confirmation, we could see upside momentum toward 1.12800–1.13000 in the coming sessions. ⚠️Scenario 2 – False Breakout Risk: Failure to sustain above 1.12430 could trap early buyers, possibly pushing price back into the demand zone around 1.1200 for re-test. 🔍 FXFOREVER Insight: ✅ Keep alert set at 1.12430 ✅ Look for M15 BOS and FVG fill to confirm entries ✅ Ideal setup for NY session breakout traders #EURUSD #ForexUpdate #FXFOREVER #PriceActionTrader #SmartMoneyZones #DemandZonePlay #IntradayFX #ForexSignals #BreakoutSetup
Long
by FXFOREVER_87
EURUSD: Weekly overview and Scenarios Hello everyone! The longer-term bullish channel is broken. the shorter-term bearish channel is formed. And we know that it is not so strong, simply because she is thin. (in my personal life I don't have 17th century beliefs that being fat means being healthy but for channels it is the working rule) ;-). Two important zones have been detected by us and according to them, other important zones projected! Confirmation of the break would happen in 4h timeframe and the SL is 1.6 of ATR14 over/below the level. TPs are clear in the chart. Best Regards, Ali
Short
by AliSignals
EURUSD TechnicalsFalling wedge pattern on the EUR/USD 4-hour timeframe. # Typically a bullish reversal or continuation pattern. # Both support and resistance lines are sloping downward and converging. # Often declines during the formation, which aligns with what’s visible here. 📈 Implications: Bullish Bias: A breakout above the upper resistance trendline usually signals a reversal to the upside. Confirmation: Wait for a breakout with volume to confirm the pattern. False breakouts can happen. Target: The initial target after a breakout is often the height of the wedge projected upward from the breakout point. RSI: Currently near oversold levels (~36), suggesting potential upward momentum. ✅ What to Watch For: Breakout above the upper trendline with a bullish candle and increased volume. A retest of the broken trendline (now support) for a more conservative entry.
Long
by xxChartWhizxx
EUR/USDThis week, high-impact economic news is on the radar for EUR/USD. We're seeing solid supply levels to support euro buying, but the Eurozone economy still shows friction from Q1, keeping things shaky short-term. With CPI data from the U.S. and Eurozone GDP revisions coming up, I expect some confusion and mixed moves in the pair early in the week. Market participants may hesitate before committing to bigger positions. 🧭 My View: There’s still strength behind the euro, but we need clearer momentum before we get a solid move. I’m staying patient this week waiting for confirmation before entry. Chop and fakeouts are possible, so it’s a week for discipline and reaction over prediction.
by TheMoney_Association
Long Trade Setup – EUR/USD!📈 Timeframe: 30-Minute Chart Pattern: Falling wedge breakout (bullish reversal) 📌 Trade Plan Entry Zone: Around 1.1233 (breakout confirmation) Stop-Loss (SL): Below 1.1194 (support + wedge invalidation) 🎯 Take Profit Targets: TP1: 1.1277 – Local resistance TP2: 1.1335 – Upper range resistance (measured move) 🔍 Technical Highlights Wedge breakout with bullish candle close Yellow line = breakout zone, now support Strong bounce off trendline + volume spike 📊 Risk-Reward Risk: 1.1233 - 1.1194 = 39 pips Reward to TP2: 1.1335 - 1.1233 = 102 pips → R:R ≈ 1:2.6 ✅ Execution Strategy Enter only after candle closes above yellow resistance SL tight below wedge Partial book at TP1, rest trail to TP2
Long
by ProfittoPath
EURUSD InsightWelcome, dear subscribers. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to hit the booster and subscribe! Key Points - U.S. President Trump stated on the first day of talks held on May 10 in Geneva, Switzerland, that “many things were discussed and many agreements were reached.” - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remarked that there was “substantial progress” in a critical trade negotiation between the U.S. and China. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng also stated that “both sides reached important agreements and a joint statement will be released on the 12th.” - Isabel Schnabel, a key figure on the ECB Executive Board, emphasized that “in the medium term, the risks to Eurozone inflation are likely tilted to the upside” and that “a highly accommodative monetary policy stance would be inappropriate.” Key Economic Events This Week + May 13: U.S. April Consumer Price Index (CPI) + May 14: Germany April Consumer Price Index (CPI) + May 15: U.K. Q1 GDP, U.S. April Retail Sales, U.S. April Producer Price Index (PPI), Speech by Fed Chair Powell + May 16: Japan Q1 GDP EUR/USD Chart Analysis A medium- to short-term downtrend continues from the resistance at recent highs, with the pair having broken below the support level at 1.12000. A further decline toward the 1.11000 level is expected. A medium- to long-term rebound toward the 1.16000 level is anticipated afterward. However, if the 1.11000 support is breached, the decline could extend to the 1.10000 level, making it important to keep a close eye on this support zone.
Short
by shawntime_academy
An Long Position on EURUSD(Buys)Entry: 1.12250 SL: 1.12050(20 pips) TP: 1.13190 Looking at this EUR/USD chart, you’ll notice several trendlines (which I call “T-lines”) drawn across key points. Here’s how I trade based on them: When price breaks one T-line, I look for the next clear or obvious wick near that break and enter a *buy or sell* from there. In this case, price broke a T-line downward, so I started buying from the most obvious wick after the break. I plan to hold the trade until price breaks the next T-line* going upward. Once that next T-line is broken, I’ll take my profit at the most visible or closest wick* right after that break. *Example on the chart:* Entry: 1.12250 (after the first T-line break, near the wick) Stop Loss: 1.12050 (20 pips below) Take Profit: 1.13190 (after the next T-line break, around the nearest wick)
by SalesPublicist
Short-Term Dip, Long-Term Gain: EURUSD Poised for ReboundAlthough EURUSD has pulled back from its recent highs, it remains stable above the 1.10 mark. Is now the time for new long positions, or are shorts the better option? We remain bullish but initially expect a moderate price decline to just below the 1.12 level, entering the suggested entry zone. From there, EURUSD should quickly resume its move toward the high seen in the last week of April. With the presented long setup, one can benefit from this expected price movement with a very favorable risk-reward ratio (RRR).
Long
by Ochlokrat