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USDEUR trade ideas

EURUSD TA: Fibonacci, Bull Flags, and Data-Driven Entry StrategyTechnical Analysis: EURUSD (Euro/US Dollar) 📈 The EURUSD pair is demonstrating strong bullish momentum on the 4-hour timeframe, with price action currently trading at 1.13638, well above the key 50% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the previous range low to high. 🔍 The chart reveals a series of bull flags forming during the recent uptrend, suggesting continued buying pressure despite the pair trading at premium levels. This pattern typically indicates brief consolidation before further upside movement. 💹 From a Fibonacci perspective, the current price position above the 50% retracement level indicates strength in the Euro against the Dollar. However, this elevated position also creates potential for a healthy pullback to retest support before continuing higher. ⏱️ Today's upcoming US Retail Sales data release represents a significant market catalyst. Interestingly, this high-impact event could trigger a pullback regardless of the outcome: If actual figures come in below forecast: Dollar weakness could prompt profit-taking after the recent rally If actual figures exceed forecast: Dollar strength could naturally push EURUSD lower 🎯 Trade Idea: Monitor for a potential retracement toward the 50% Fibonacci level, followed by a bullish break of market structure on the 30-minute timeframe. This would provide a higher-probability entry point for long positions with a more favorable risk-to-reward ratio. 🔄 The presence of multiple bull flags suggests that any pullback may be temporary, potentially offering an excellent opportunity to enter with the prevailing trend at a better price point. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This analysis is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.
Long
by fxtraderanthony
EURUSD – Pullback before a new move?EURUSD has been consolidating for several sessions now after making a strong impulsive move to the upside earlier this month. Since breaking above the 1.1150 level, momentum has started to slow down and price is beginning to range near the recent highs. That alone isn’t surprising strong impulsive moves are almost always followed by periods of consolidation or retracement as the market pauses, takes profits, and reevaluates. What catches my attention now is how weak the price action looks during this consolidation. The candles are getting smaller, wicks are getting longer, and there’s not much follow-through on the bullish side anymore. This kind of price behavior typically shows indecision or exhaustion buyers are no longer driving price with the same force and sellers are starting to creep back in. So instead of chasing this move higher, I’m positioning myself for a pullback into a key demand zone that I think will offer a much higher probability long setup. The Level I’m Watching – Golden Pocket with Imbalance Confluence The zone I’m targeting for a potential entry sits in the 1.1070 to 1.1170 area. This range covers the golden pocket retracement zone, between the 61.8% and 65% Fibonacci levels measured from the recent impulse low to high, and overlaps with multiple technical factors that make it extremely attractive. First off, this zone contains three separate unfilled imbalance areas (or fair value gaps), created by aggressive bullish candles on the way up. These are areas where price moved too quickly to fill all orders on both sides, which leaves inefficiencies in the market. The market tends to revisit these areas to rebalance before continuing in the prevailing direction. So from a pure price action perspective, the unfilled imbalances create a natural magnet for price to retrace into. Second, we’ve got historical resistance right in this same zone. If you look back a few sessions, price rejected this level multiple times before finally breaking through. Now that we’re above it, there’s a strong chance this area flips into support. This concept resistance turning into support is a classic and reliable price action behavior, especially when it lines up with other tools like fibs and imbalances. Trend Structure Still Intact What’s crucial to me here is that a pullback into this zone will not break the overall bullish market structure. We’re still printing higher highs and higher lows, and a retracement into the golden pocket would simply be another higher low within the current uptrend. There’s also a clean ascending trendline from early April that hasn’t been breached. If price respects that trendline again while dipping into this demand zone, that would add further confluence to the setup. It would mean the trendline, golden pocket, unfilled imbalances, and historical support are all lining up at the same point that’s a textbook area where I want to be a buyer. Entry Triggers and Execution Plan I’m not looking to blindly set a limit order in this zone. I want confirmation that buyers are stepping in and that we’re getting a shift in momentum. Ideally, I’ll drop to a lower timeframe like the 1H or even the 15M and wait for a clear change of character — something like: A break of a local lower high A bullish engulfing candle at the base A sweep of liquidity below recent lows followed by a strong push back above structure Once I see that kind of reaction, I’ll consider entering a long position. My stop will go just below the structure low or the lowest point of the zone, depending on the entry signal. I’ll give it enough room to avoid getting wicked out on a false break. As for targets the first obvious one is the current range high around 1.1350. If we get a strong reaction, I’ll trail part of the position and look for continuation into new highs. This pullback could set the stage for the next leg of the broader bullish trend, especially if DXY starts showing weakness again. Why I’m Not Shorting Here Even though price looks weak and a retracement seems likely, I’m not interested in shorting this setup. We’re still firmly in bullish structure and shorting into a healthy uptrend just doesn’t make sense to me unless I’m scalping. The risk to reward just isn’t favorable on the short side right now I’d rather wait for price to come to my zone and then look for confirmation to go with the trend. Final Thoughts EURUSD is consolidating after a strong move up and I’m expecting a pullback. The golden pocket zone, stacked with unfilled imbalances and previous resistance, looks like the ideal place for a bullish reaction. As long as we stay above that zone, structure stays bullish and I’ll be looking for long opportunities once price confirms the bounce. Patience is key here. I’m not rushing into anything, but if price gives me the reaction I’m looking for in that zone, I’ll be ready to execute. The setup aligns well with both technical structure and market behavior and I’ll continue to monitor price action closely over the next few sessions. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Long
by TehThomas
51
EUR/USD Rejection at Resistance – Bearish Move Ahead?EUR/USD is showing signs of weakness near the 1.1363 resistance zone, forming a potential lower high after recent bullish momentum. Price action suggests a possible reversal setup, targeting the support zone near 1.0932. The setup indicates a favorable risk-to-reward ratio with the stop-loss placed above the recent highs at 1.1481. A break below 1.1229 would confirm further downside pressure toward the 1.0935–1.0932 region. Keep an eye on upcoming USD and Eurozone news events, which may act as key catalysts for volatility. Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Always perform your own due diligence before trading.
Short
by Fx_James_Trader
EURUSD(20250416) Today's AnalysisMarket news: U.S. import prices fell 0.1% in March from the previous month, the first month-on-month decline since September last year. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.1307 Support and resistance levels: 1.1421 1.1378 1.1350 1.1263 1.1235 1.1193 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.1307, consider buying, the first target price is 1.1350 If the price breaks through 1.1263, consider selling, the first target price is 1.1235
Long
by BraveTigercat
EURUSD climbing EURUSD is currently moving in line with expectations. Since the beginning of the week, it has been trading sideways, and yesterday it bounced off the 38.2% retracement level. On the next bullish move, it's important to watch how it reacts to the previous high and whether it can continue with a strong impulse. Today, FED Chair Powell has a press conference, which could lead to increased market volatility. Tomorrow, the ECB's interest rate decision is expected.
Long
by ForexTrendline
Bearish Retracement Setup Near Key Fib ZoneThe FX:EURUSD is showing a strong bullish retracement after a longer-term downtrend. Price is now above the Ichimoku cloud, with Span A at 1.0851 and Span B at 1.0825, which shows temporary bullish momentum but not a confirmed trend reversal. The area between the 61.8% (1.1402) and 78.6% (1.1907) Fibonacci retracement levels is a key supply zone. This zone also aligns with previous highs near 1.12, where the market seems to have grabbed liquidity before showing signs of exhaustion. Both Trend Strength Index (TSI) indicators are in the overbought zone: TSI(10): 0.92 TSI(20): 0.77 This shows strong momentum, but also that the move may be overextended and due for a correction. The current structure suggests a possible lower high forming, which supports the idea of a short entry if price reacts in this zone. Short Setup Plan: Entry zone: 1.1402 – 1.1907 (Fibonacci zone) Stop Loss: 1.25 (above the 100% retracement) Targets: TP1: 0.95 (key psychological level, previous lows) TP2: 0.88 (extension zone) Risk Reward Ratio: Over 2 This setup assumes the bullish retracement is temporary and price may continue the larger bearish trend. EUR/USD is reacting to shifting expectations between the ECB and the Fed. While the Fed is expected to cut rates later in 2025, the ECB may move earlier due to weak growth and cooling inflation in the Eurozone. Recent ECB statements show a cautious tone. At the same time, the U.S. economy remains relatively strong. If the Fed delays cuts or the ECB moves faster, the euro could weaken again, supporting a bearish technical setup. Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not represent financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.
Short
by SupertradeOfficial
EURUSD Analysis – Potential Bearish Reversal AheadFollowing a strong bullish move, EURUSD is now entering a premium zone where I expect sell-side pressure to start building up. Similar to my GBPUSD analysis, this setup is based on liquidity collection and a potential change of character (CHOCH) before bearish continuation. 🔍 Key Technical Observations: Price is currently reacting within a FVG zone, suggesting a temporary bullish push might grab liquidity before reversal. I'm closely watching for CHOCH confirmation, followed by impulsive bearish momentum toward demand zones. Targets are aligned with structure levels and imbalance zones between 1.1080 and 1.0780. 🛡️ Strategy Note: Patience is key here. I'll wait for signs of exhaustion or manipulation above the highs before engaging in any short bias. This idea continues to follow my model of trend exhaustion, liquidity sweeps, FVG reaction, and CHOCH validation. — Emerson Massawe
Short
by Lordemerson
1
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.1369 1st Support: 1.1147 1st Resistance: 1.1471 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
1
EUR/USD Bearish Setup Unfolding Below Key Resistance📊 Technical Analysis of EUR/USD (4H Chart) 🧭 Chart Overview: Current Price: ~1.1350 Indicators Used: EMA 50 (Red): ~1.1311 — acting as dynamic support. EMA 200 (Blue): ~1.1114 — aligns closely with major support zone. 📌 Key Levels: 🔼 Main Resistance Zone: 1.1375 – 1.1400 Price has tested this zone multiple times, forming a potential double top pattern. Strong bearish pressure observed each time price enters this area. 🔁 Minor Resistance (Retest Zone): ~1.1325 – 1.1345 Currently acting as a decision zone. If price fails to hold above this level, it could turn into resistance on the next bearish leg. 🔽 Support Zone: 1.1100 – 1.1130 Converges with EMA 200 — making it a high-probability demand zone. Potential target for the anticipated drop. 🧠 Price Action & Structure: Market showed a strong bullish rally previously, breaking through resistance levels. Now showing signs of exhaustion at the top. Bearish scenario projected with a lower high forming below the main resistance, followed by a sell-off toward the support zone. ⚙️ Possible Scenarios: Bearish Scenario (High Probability): Price rejects the minor resistance → breaks below EMA 50 → continues lower to support. Target: 1.1110 area. Bullish Scenario (Low Probability): Price reclaims and closes above 1.1375 with strong momentum. Potential breakout and continuation toward 1.1450+. 🧩 Confluences Supporting Bearish Bias: Lower high formation potential. EMA 50 starting to flatten. Failure to maintain momentum above main resistance. Clean drop path toward 1.1110 if support breaks. 📉 Conclusion: This setup favors short-term bearish movement, particularly if the price rejects around the 1.1345 level again. A breakdown below the minor resistance zone would likely trigger a sell-off toward the 1.1110 support, in line with the 200 EMA.
Short
by MrStellanSight
6
Bearish drop?EUR/USD has reacted off the support level which is a pullback support and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1304 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 1.1371 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 1.1160 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets