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idea on a NFP EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.0600 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar holds ground due to profit-taking and a softer risk tone. Traders refrain from placing fresh bets on the pair ahead of the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls data release.US Nonfarm Payrolls are set to jump by 200K in November after rising by just 12K in October. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the labor data on Friday at 13:30 GMT. US jobs data is critical to gauging future Fed rate cuts and the US Dollar price direction.
by EZIO-FX
EUR/USD Remains Cautious: Traders Await US Payrolls DataThe EUR/USD currency pair remains cautious as it trades below the 1.0600 level during the European session on Friday, just shy of a previous resistance zone. The US Dollar is maintaining its stability, supported by profit-taking and a subdued risk appetite among investors. Market participants are hesitant to commit to new positions ahead of the pivotal US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which includes key indicators such as Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. The day's events are significant and will likely influence the direction of the DXY index as we approach the new week. From a technical perspective, the price remains under the 1.0600 resistance level. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates a shift in retailer positioning towards a bullish sentiment, while non-commercial traders continue to display a bearish outlook. Currently, we are refraining from taking any positions. However, we maintain a bearish bias and anticipate a potential decline that could retest the 1.0400 zone or even extend lower. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EURUSD: Today's Key Events Set Your CourseThe EURUSD is facing a critical day driven by important economic data in both the Eurozone and the US. Today's releases could set the near-term direction for the pair as traders look for clues on economic growth and the state of the labor market. Europe: Retail Sales and GDP October retail sales data (10:00 CET) in the euro zone will be the first point of focus. This indicator reflects the health of consumption, a key component of GDP. Expectations are for monthly growth of 1.2% , up from the previous figure of 0.9% . A positive result could strengthen the euro, showing the resilience of consumption in an inflationary context. At 11:00 CET, Q3 GDP will be released, with more conservative forecasts: 0.2% q/q and 0.6% y/y , versus previous data of 0.4% and 0.9% , respectively. Lower-than-expected growth could pressure the euro, especially if the weakness is also reflected in employment data for the same period. United States: Labor Market in Focus Attention will shift to the United States with Nonfarm Payrolls data (14:30 CET).A marked slowdown in job creation is expected, with only 12K versus 200K in the previous month. Despite this, a slight improvement in the unemployment rate is anticipated, dropping to 4.1% from 4.2% . If the data confirms a weakening in the labor market, the dollar could lose strength, giving support to the EUR/USD. EUR/USD Outlook The EUR/USD is in a key range, hovering around support between 1.04506 and 1.04956 and resistance at 1.05996 . Its current control point (POC) at 1.05266 could indicate some previous bearish pressure, currently the signal was given yesterday at 8 pm Spanish time in which the 50-average cross overtook the 100-average cross, indicating a change in the downtrend of the last few days. At the moment the RSI is slightly oversold at 61.35%.Positive data from Europe could help the euro regain ground against the dollar, especially if GDP surprises to the upside. Conversely, if U.S. employment data comes out better than expected, the dollar could strengthen, pushing the pair lower. Traders should monitor volatility following the data and watch for comments from Fed officials, who will also speak today. These signals could offer additional clues about the direction of monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic. Conclusion: EUR/USD will face important catalysts today. Economic data from both sides of the Atlantic will have a significant impact on the direction of the pair, offering key opportunities for intraday traders. Ion Jauregui –ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Long to Resistance area 1.06197.Colleagues, Price closed the gap and now I believe that wave “C” is almost over or already over. Therefore, I think that we should look only at long positions with the aim to reach the area of 1.06197. There are 2 possible scenarios: 1) Wave “C” is finally formed and the price will continue the upward movement. (More risky market entry) 2) The price will still make a small movement to the nearest minimum and here I would recommend placing pending limit orders. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
48
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 06, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD is declining to 1.0575 at the start of the European session on Friday. Concerns over US tariffs on European goods and rising bets on interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) are weighing on the Euro against the US Dollar. This Friday, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will take center stage. The single currency remains on the defensive as traders are concerned about potential tariff policies on all goods imported into the US, which could undermine the Eurozone economy. In addition, the ECB is widely expected to cut the interest rate at its last monetary policy meeting of the year. All but two of the 75 economists surveyed believe the ECB will cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) on Dec. 12. On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron said he would appoint a new prime minister in the coming days, with the top priority being parliament's passage of the 2025 budget. Any signs of political uncertainty in France could contribute to the euro's decline. Abroad, the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce borrowing costs at its December meeting could put pressure on the dollar and limit EUR/USD's decline. Markets now estimate the probability that the central bank will cut rates by a quarter point at its December 17-18 meeting at 70.1%. Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0570, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD: Risk 10-20 pips for a big returnHello traders. THIS IS JUST AN IDEA, NOT INVESTMENT OR TRADING ADVICE The fundamental backdrop for a bearish EUR/USD continuation stays unchanged in my opinion. This morning's reaction to new jobless claims was probably a knee jerk reaction since the release is only 24 hours away from NFP data and two weeks away from the FOMC rate decision. And the BOJ decision. And a week away from the ECB decision. A lot of upcoming risk events. Price also tested the daily high at 1.05868 which was the last daily high before price had reversed from the daily high at 1.05963. There was an initial doji candle on the 4H chart but the next two candle up until the daily close retested the high without exceeding it. Is this a clear reversal again? Not at all. There are three levels of interest above 1.05868: Daily high at 1.0596 Daily high at 1.0609 ( also the 0.382 fib level on the monthly chart) Two daily closes at 1.0622 The October NFP print of 12K was was attributed to harsh winter storms. This has raised the bar considerably for tomorrow's data. Will it just be about the headline or will a deep dive into the data tell a different story? Will investors look at the average of the the two months? There is no clarity, so proceed with caution. The German Industrial Production print at 07:00 GMT may be market moving especially since the EURO simply shrugged off the political drama in France. However, volatility can be very rewarding if one has the stomach to deal with the whiplash. It sure beats staring at a monitor for hours on end and still getting stopped out. Might as well make it data based and get stopped out instantaneously. On this topic: I make good use of the alerts in TV on both my desktop, laptop and phone. It prevents the constant glancing at the charts. A possibility is to set an entry order at 1.0622 to short the pair. The stop loss? 10-20 pips? OR half a position at 1.0610 and half at 1.0622. It is a very personal preference BUT one thing is clear: keep the position size and stop loss modest as a ratio of your equity. Finally, the technical indicators point to maybe just a continuation of the range for now. As for the cup and handle pattern, I stand corrected if it is not valid. Best of luck.
Short
by jvrfxalerts
5
Comprehensive Summary of the Day's Events - December 5, 2024Comprehensive Summary of the Day's Events - December 5, 2024 Global Financial Markets and Economic Developments 1. United States: - The Federal Reserve's funding loans decreased to $17.1 billion for the week ending December 4, down from $18.5 billion previously. - Discount-window loans fell slightly to $2.43 billion from $2.5 billion. - Initial jobless claims rose to a one-month high of 224,000, with continued claims decreasing slightly to 1.871 million. Economists anticipate November's nonfarm payrolls to reflect a rebound. - Treasury yields held steady, with the 10-year yield at 4.18%, while short-term Treasuries underperformed. - The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Nasdaq 100 by 0.3%, and the Dow by 0.6% as markets awaited critical jobs data. Meme stocks such as GameStop surged on social media speculation. - The US trade deficit narrowed to $73.8 billion in October, with trade figures showing improvement in key areas. 2. Asia: - South Korea's October current account surplus decreased to $9.784 billion from $11.12 billion. GDP for Q3 remained unchanged at 0.1% QoQ and 1.5% YoY. - Japanese markets were influenced by comments from BoJ Board Member Nakamura, who emphasized a data-dependent approach to potential rate hikes and warned about weak consumer spending. - Australia's trade surplus exceeded expectations, reaching AUD 5.953 billion in October, with exports rising 3.6%. 3. Europe: - France faced political turmoil after Prime Minister Barnier's government lost a no-confidence vote. President Macron announced plans to name a new prime minister shortly while reiterating his commitment to fulfilling his mandate. - Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.5% MoM in October, with YoY growth at 1.9%, slightly above forecasts. - Germany reported weaker-than-expected industrial orders (-1.5% MoM) and mixed construction PMI data. - The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps in December to 3.00%, with further cuts anticipated into 2025. Energy and Commodities - OPEC+ concluded its meeting with a decision to delay a planned oil output increase to April 2025. Oil production cuts will gradually unwind through September 2026. Russia and Saudi Arabia's quotas were confirmed for the next year. - Crude oil prices dipped, with Brent settling at $72.09 per barrel and WTI at $68.30 per barrel. - Natural gas inventories fell by 30 billion cubic feet, below forecasts, reflecting seasonal demand dynamics. Cryptocurrency and Technology - Bitcoin surged past $100,000, buoyed by President-elect Trump's nomination of a crypto-friendly SEC chair. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index indicated "Extreme Greed" at 84/100. Political Developments 1. France: - Polls indicated 54% of French citizens want President Macron to resign amid fiscal and political uncertainty. The far-right leader Marine Le Pen proposed alliances to unseat Macron's government. - The crisis may delay France's efforts to reduce its budget deficit. 2. South Korea: - Political tensions heightened as President Yoon faced potential impeachment proceedings, impacting market sentiment. 3. Middle East: - Israel reportedly updated Hamas on a proposal for hostage releases and a ceasefire, mediated by Egypt. Other Key Updates - China's central bank injected liquidity into the financial system while strengthening the yuan's fixing. - Australian household spending rose 2.8% YoY in October, signaling resilience in consumer activity. - Fitch Ratings warned of rising US inflation risks due to robust consumer spending and upcoming tariff hikes. This summary encapsulates the economic, political, and financial narratives driving global markets and sentiment today.
by InvestMate
4