EURUSD| Weekly OutlookSame story as last week — still patiently waiting for the major engineered liquidity above to get cleared before considering any meaningful longs.
That said, EU is currently offering a clean structure for short setups into the downside order block. Everything is lining up technically, but it’s important to note this is a counter-trend move — and personally, I’m not taking it.
It’s tempting when structure looks this clean, but I know it’s not my proper approach. For me, the real play is still higher — waiting on that bull-side OB mitigation to align with the bigger picture narrative. Until then, I’ll let others chase while I sit on my hands. Pure discipline only.
Bless Trading!
USDEUR trade ideas
Forex and Gold Market Highlights June 21 2025Forex & Gold Market Highlights – June 21, 2025
🕒 Key Events This Week:
• 🏦 Fed officials signaling possible rate cuts vs. cautious economic tone
• 🌍 Escalating Israel–Iran tensions boosting safe-haven flows
• 🏭 Mixed U.S. macro data (retail sales, Philly Fed, housing) shaping Fed expectations
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💶 EUR/USD Nears 1.1520 on Safe-Haven Flows
EUR/USD edged up to about 1.1520 amid weakness in the U.S. dollar, driven by global risk-off sentiment. Mixed signals from the Fed kept traders cautious.
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💷 GBP/USD Hovering Around 1.3500 on USD Strength
GBP/USD remains near 1.3500, slipping slightly off highs after weaker UK retail data. The pair faces resistance in the 1.3550–1.3600 zone.
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💴 USD/JPY Eyeballing 146 Resistance
USD/JPY climbed toward 146.00, driven by risk-averse USD demand and dovish BOJ stance. The pair is testing key retracement resistance near 146.76.
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🥇 Gold Pulls Back but Holds Ground
Spot gold slid to around $3,334 3,381 this week, under pressure from a stronger dollar and diminished Fed rate-cut hopes. Still, geopolitical jitters kept it from falling hard.
• Weekly drop of ~2.5%, trading in a $3,330–$3,400 range.
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📈 DXY Index Rallies on Risk Aversion
The U.S. Dollar Index rose ~0.45%, marking its strongest weekly gain in over a month due to heightened safe-haven flows amid Middle East tensions.
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📌 Market Outlook:
• EUR/USD: Mixed bias. May test 1.1550–1.1600 if risk-off continues; downside risk near 1.1400 if U.S. data surprises.
• GBP/USD: Expected to stay in the 1.3450–1.3550 range; UK economic data and USD momentum will be key.
• USD/JPY: Bullish tilt remains toward 146.76, but any BOJ hints of policy tightening could shake it.
• Gold: Pressure from a firm dollar is likely to persist. Watch for geopolitical developments and upcoming Fed signals for reversal clues.
EURUSD POSSIBLE TRADE SETUP💶 Potential Trade Setup on EURUSD
Overview:
Since March, EURUSD has shown consistent bullish momentum, especially after breaking through the key 1.0600 supply zone.
The pair has maintained higher highs and higher lows, suggesting continued strength in the medium term.
That said, I am still quite anticipating for a possible continuation of the bullish momentum that started a long time ago, and moving forward, I will anticipate for a clear retest of the 50% fib at the 1.1425 region, then I go in for the kill.
Alternatively, there is a clear short opportunity, provided that, the bullish trendline is broken and the 1.1370 region is broken to the downside, this is a bit far a stretch, but it is in play. "IF" the DXY keeps the bullish momentum going.
🧭 Trading Plan:
✅ BUY Bias (Primary Plan):
Look for a retest of the 50% Fibonacci retracement zone around 1.1425. This aligns with the ongoing momentum on the 4H timeframe.
🔻 SELL Bias (Alternative Scenario):
If price breaks the bullish trendline and the 1.1370 support zone, a short opportunity opens up.
This is only valid if DXY continues to strengthen, shifting sentiment.
🎯 Targets & Risk Management: Targeting 1:2 R:R on both setups.
Ensure entries are backed by price action signals and confluences.
EURUSD M15 Forecast - Check related IdeaAs explained in previous post we are expecting a pull back down to our order block (H4) then a bullish reversal to retest last weeks highs (1.16) region. If price breaks and closes above the M15 supply zone will have to re-evaluate and potentially take a long position from a retest into a FVG.
EURUSD to Retest 1.16 regionWatching the 1.1490–1.1450 zone for a potential bullish reaction. This area includes a 4H Fair Value Gap and Order Block. If price gives a 15M CoCH within this range, I’ll look to enter long.
Targets: 1.1540, 1.1570, and 1.1610
Invalidation below 1.1440
Patience until price delivers a clear setup.
EU could go up againHi traders,
Last week EU made a bigger (overlapping) correction to the downside so now the wave count is invalid. I must admit that I don't see a clear Elliott wave pattern. There are multiple options.
This last pattern could be a corrective pattern and next week we could see a next impulsive wave.
Or it is a bearish leading diagonal and next week we could see this pair drop.
At the moment my main (fundamental) bias is still bullish.
But let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for more development of price action.
If you want to learn more about trading with FVG's, liquidity sweeps and Wave analysis, then make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
EURUSD: Bearish Continuation
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the EURUSD pair which is likely to be pushed down by the bears so we will sell!
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EURUSD Gearing Up for Next Leg Up – DXY Weakens After PPI MissToday, key U.S. economic indexes were released, providing fresh insights into inflationary pressures and the state of the labor market:
Core PPI m/m:
Actual: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.4%
Lower than expected – suggests weaker underlying producer inflation.
PPI m/m:
Actual: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.5%
Slight miss – overall inflation at the producer level remains soft.
Unemployment Claims:
Actual: 248K | Forecast: 242K | Previous: 247K
Slightly higher than forecast – signaling some cooling in the labor market.
Market Outlook :
These data releases point toward cooling inflation and softness in job growth, which may strengthen the dovish narrative around the Fed’s next move.
DXY Index ( TVC:DXY ) is under pressure, and EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is showing signs of bullish momentum .
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Now let's take a look at the EURUSD chart on the 1-hour time frame .
EURUSD is trading near the Heavy Resistance zone($1.182-$1.160) and Monthly Resistance(2) .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , EURUSD appears to be completing microwave 4 . Microwave 4 could be completed at one of the Fibonacci levels .
I expect EURUSD to attack the Heavy Resistance zone($1.182-$1.160) at least once more after completing microwave 4 and could even rise to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
Note: If EURUSD touches $1.1446 , we can expect more dump.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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EURUSD RangeThe PO3/ model 1 accumulation i was talking about played out perfectly. I can't tell yet, but the purpose of this accumulation could have been to come back up into supply and redistribute from there to then go lower. I will look for a valid model in case this plays out like that. (I would want to see a better model, i don't like the first deviation)
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 20, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar has encountered a significant decline, dipping below the Mean Support level of 1.149; however, it exhibited a modest recovery on Friday. Recent analyses indicate that the Euro is likely to decrease further to the Mean Support level of 1.148, with the potential for extending its bearish trend to reach 1.140. Nevertheless, there remains a possibility that the current recovery will persist, which could result in price movements targeting the Key Resistance level at 1.158 and potentially leading to a retest of the Outer Currency Rally's 1.163 mark.
Long objective for the following week for EURUSD.We see EU after a deeper mitigation in our range, Shift structure in the lower timeframes, Which can indicate a trend shift in the higher timeframes because the markets are fractal.
We have undetified two significant demand zones for longs positions.
There is also a chance that price can mitigate deeper in our range so we should use correct risk managment because nobody knows from which point price will move from.
Chartanalyse: Der Chart zeigt eine Seitwärtskonsolidierung mitTechnical Overview:
The EUR/USD chart exhibits signs of a bearish reversal pattern forming near a key resistance zone (1.15800 - 1.16000), highlighted with repeated rejection wicks (🔴 red arrows). Price is currently trading at 1.15222, after failing to hold above the neckline of the rounded bottom pattern.
🔍 Key Observations:
🔺 Resistance Zone: Strong resistance has been confirmed multiple times (red arrows), indicating sellers are active at the top.
🟠 Double Top / Head & Shoulders Behavior: Price action shows topping formations (highlighted with orange circles), suggesting exhaustion of bullish momentum.
📉 Bearish Breakdown Possibility:
Price rejected near neckline and is showing bearish candle formations.
Breakdown from the current consolidation zone could push price toward the target zone at 1.14491, marked in purple.
This aligns with previous support structure, reinforcing a technical downside projection.
🔻 Support Zone: Around 1.13800 - 1.14000 is a strong area of demand and may act as the next bounce point if the bearish move continues.
📐 Chart Pattern Structure:
Rounded bottom formed earlier, but the failure to continue higher and breakout suggests a false breakout trap for buyers.
Downward sloping trendline broke, but now price is struggling to sustain above previous highs.
📌 Conclusion:
⚠️ Caution for bulls as price shows signs of weakness at resistance. A move below 1.15000 may initiate further downside toward 1.14491 and possibly lower. Short-term traders can watch for confirmation candles near this zone for entries.
📅 Short-Term Bias: Bearish
🎯 Target: 1.14491
⛔️ Invalidation: Strong breakout above 1.16000
EURUSD BEARISH SETUP
The EUR/USD 4-hour chart reflects a significant technical setup, showing price action within a bullish ascending channel that has recently broken to the downside, forming a falling wedge pattern—typically a bullish continuation signal.
Key Observations:
Bullish Channel Broken: The price broke below the ascending channel earlier this month, signaling initial weakness.
Falling Wedge Formation: A bullish falling wedge has developed, and the pair is now testing its upper boundary near 1.1522, attempting a breakout.
Resistance Zone: The price is approaching a key resistance area between 1.1550 – 1.1600, which aligns with previous highs and the wedge's upper edge.
Scenario Projection:
A temporary bullish breakout toward the resistance zone is expected.
If the pair gets rejected from this resistance, a sharp decline toward the major support area near 1.1300 is likely.
Bearish Confirmation: A clear rejection at the resistance zone followed by a break below the recent minor support (red zone) would confirm the bearish move.
Conclusion:
While short-term bullish momentum may push EUR/USD slightly higher, the confluence of resistance levels suggests a high probability of rejection. Traders should watch for reversal signals in the 1.1550–1.1600 zone, as failure to break higher could lead to a bearish move toward 1.1300 in the coming days.
EUR/USD - H4 - Triangle Formation (31.05.2025)The EUR/USD pair on the H4 timeframe presents a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern.
1. Wait for Breakout with Good Volume
2. Conformation in short Timeframe Must
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EURUSD - 2nd potential entryEvening all
Here is a still screenshot of what I am looking for the market open on EURUSD come Sunday night after the spreads have died down on the pair.
My pending order will go directly on the FVG with my stops below the manipulation of the range.
If I get tagged in great. If I don't also great if we continue to move high I mill just manage the one position.
If I am tagged in I will give you and update with a new idea and then depending on how that idea plays out win or lose I will come back and re-visit it and break it down some more.
However I have high hopes for this trade to make it up to 1.16300
Have a great weekend
and I will speak to you all soon
EURUSD - BreakdownApologies video is a bit rushed.
Wanted to get it done before the weekend arrived.
There's so much more to this video and entry reason that I have left out unintentionally like the fact we swept the Asia lows before creating a BoS. There are also a few other things like I have left out but without looking at the chart right now I cannot remember off the top of my head.
I will post the idea of this trade below so you can see that I was taking it before it played out.
Hope you all have a great weekend and a better trading week than you had this week.
Enjoy
P.S if you have any questions please do message