EURUSD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my EURUSD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
USDEUR trade ideas
May 8, 2025 EURUSD Buy📈 Bias: Countertrend Long | Risk: 1% (2 entries)
🎯 Target: Fill Asia range / 15mOB for LH
🧠 Reasoning:
London session opened inside a 5m OB, followed by a BOS in our direction.
Even though it's a countertrend trade, it aligns with the idea of forming a lower high from a strong reaction zone.
Waiting for 2 entries:
🔹 1 at the 5m OB
🔹 1 at a refined 1m OB
EURUSD tested the Support line 1.12725 👀 Possible scenario:
The euro (EUR) fell 0.59% on May 7 after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, as expected. The U.S. dollar strengthened, supported by the Fed’s cautious tone on inflation and unemployment risks, as well as optimism around upcoming U.S.-China trade talks set for May 10 in Switzerland.
On May 8, EURUSD held above the 50-day moving average. Traders are watching the Bank of England’s rate decision at 11:00 a.m. UTC, which could spark volatility in euro pairs. U.S. Jobless Claims data, due at 12:30 p.m. UTC, may also influence USD movements across the board.
✅ Support and Resistance Levels
Now, the support level is located at 1.12725.
Resistance level is now located at 1.14220.
EUR/USD 30M CHART PATTERNThe EUR/USD 30-minute chart presents a bearish setup based on a rising wedge pattern. This pattern typically signals a potential trend reversal after an upward move. Price action within the wedge shows weakening bullish momentum, and the recent downward move suggests sellers are gaining control. Additionally, the price is moving below the Ichimoku Cloud, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
Entry: 1.13600
First Target point: 1.12800
Second Target point 1.12400
Third Target point 1.12000
Stop Loss : 1.13830
Remembering Key Levels Indicators are reading neutral which I can see
Right now price is ranging 1.13700-1.12700
Price is making LH and LL on the 4hr and Daily Time frame
Price is near a key support area and from my aspect of price action it looks like it isn't breaking 1.12700
DXY is also heading near a recent high 99.932 and the probability of his breaking is weak if it does this trade becomes invalid
Right now price is in the contraction phase waiting to go into expansion
In order for me to Sell EURUSD I need to see a strong push to the down side forming within the bodies of candles no wicks
Otherwise I am Still Bullish on EURUSD
BUY 1.12868
SL 1.12660
TP1 1.3200
TP2 1.13360
TP3 1.13650
EUR/USD..3h chart pattern.**high-probability EUR/USD buy strategy** with clear rules and risk management:
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### **EUR/USD Buy Trade Plan**
**✅ Entry:** **1.1300** (Key support zone)
**🎯 Target:** **1.1550** (+250 pips | **1:3+ Risk-Reward**)
**🛑 Stop Loss:** **1.1220** (-80 pips | Below recent swing low)
### **Why Buy Here?**
1. **Support Zone:**
- 1.1300 is a **psychological + historical support** (2023 swing lows).
- Strong bounce potential if USD weakens (Fed pivot hopes).
2. **Trend Structure:**
- Higher lows in weekly chart suggest **long-term bullish bias**.
3. **Fundamental Catalyst:**
- ECB rate hikes vs. Fed pause could boost EUR.
### **Entry Confirmation (Avoid Fakeouts!)**
- **Wait for:**
✅ **Bullish price action** (e.g., hammer, engulfing candle on 4H/Daily).
✅ **RSI >30** (no extreme oversold condition).
✅ **MACD histogram turning upward**.
### **Trade Management**
- **Scale in:** Enter 50% at 1.1300, add 50% on retest of 1.1280 (if possible).
- **Move SL to breakeven** at **1.1340** (+40 pips).
- **Partial profits:** Take 50% at **1.1450**, let rest run to 1.1550.
### **Invalidation Scenario**
- If price closes **below 1.1220**, trend turns bearish (exit trade).
---
### **Key Risks & Mitigation**
⚠️ **USD Strength:** Watch Fed speeches, CPI data.
⚠️ **Eurozone Recession:** Weak GDP could hurt EUR.
**Alternative Play:** If 1.1300 breaks, wait for **1.1200** (stronger support).
---
Would you like a **shorter-term scalp version** (e.g., 100-pip target)? Or add **Fibonacci levels** for precision?
EUR USD Buy nowTook a EUR/USD buy after a clear sell-side liquidity sweep, followed by a bullish CHOCH (Change of Character) and a break of structure (BOS). Waited for price to retrace into the fair value gap on the 5-minute timeframe, then entered on the confirmation. Targeting buy-side liquidity above.
EURUSD Poised for a Sharp DeclineAfter what appears to be a completed distribution phase, FX:EURUSD looks ready to break lower toward key support levels. The first significant level to watch is 1.1263 — a clean break below it would likely open the way to the next two targets at 1.1145 and 1.1094. This move is supported by a strengthening TVC:DXY , which also appears bullish.
EURUSD Will Fall! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 1.136.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 1.132 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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EURUSDThe third and final trade of the day will be on EURUSD.
Following the significant depreciation of the Euro during the U.S. and Asian sessions yesterday, I expect this downward trend to continue today as well. That’s why I’m opening a sell trade on the 15-minute chart (as always, using a short-term timeframe).
🔍 Criteria:
✔️ Timeframe: 15M
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2
✔️ Trade Direction: Sell
✔️ Entry Price: 1.12932
✔️ Take Profit: 1.12743
✔️ Stop Loss: 1.13028
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It's a trade I’m taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes.
📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies:
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EUR/USD Elliott Wave Forecast: Preparing for Wave 5 RallyIn the daily timeframe of EUR/USD, the third wave of the larger Elliott Wave structure appears to have been completed. Within this third wave, we can also observe that the subwave 3 of wave 3 has concluded, and currently, Wave 4 is unfolding.
Wave 4 is presently developing and is likely to retrace toward the 1.10683 level or potentially form a supportive close above it. This zone corresponds to both the subwave 4 of Wave 3 and the main Wave 4 correction, which indicates a critical area of confluence and potential completion of the corrective structure.
Once Wave 4 is confirmed to be complete near this region, the chart suggests that we may enter the beginning of Wave 5, providing a favorable long trade opportunity.
Entry Trigger: Sustained price above 1.10719
First Target: 1.12900
Second Target: 1.13837
Stop-Loss: 1.09518 (below the corrective Wave 4 low to protect the setup)
EURUSD: Potential Head and Shoulders PatternEURUSD: Potential Head and Shoulders Pattern
EURUSD is about to complete a Head and Shoulders pattern.
Ahead of the FOMC, the market is still directionless and in a long pause. As we can see from the chart, we have a possible Head and Shoulders pattern that points to further declines.
The first target is near 1.1280.
A move below the neckline of the pattern should confirm a larger bearish wave for today. However, everything will be tied to the FOMC comments, so it should be a busy day and also with high risk during Powell's speech.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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Euro Strengthens on Political ShiftsEUR/USD traded just above 1.1300 on Thursday, staying in a tight range as reduced political uncertainty in Europe and a softer U.S. dollar offered mixed cues. The euro was supported by news of Friedrich Merz becoming Germany’s chancellor, while the dollar struggled despite a hawkish Fed pause, as Powell flagged tariff-related risks. Traders are focused on Trump’s press conference at 14:00 GMT and U.S. jobless claims for near-term direction.
Resistance is seen at 1.1460, with higher levels at 1.1580 and 1.1680. Support lies at 1.1260, followed by 1.1200 and 1.1150.
Range-Bound EUR/USD: Sell Setup Pending Dollar StrengthI'm currently watching the EUR/USD currency pair, and it appears to be under pressure while trading within a range 📉. If you check out the chart in the video 📊, you’ll see what I mean. I’m on the lookout for a potential sell opportunity, but only if the upcoming data release signals strength for the US dollar 💵. In that case, I’d be watching for a break and retest of the current range low—(BoS). My targets would be set two levels below, aiming to close the position by the end of the New York session 🗽. Please note, this is not financial advice! 🚫
Trade Wars, Tariffs & Currencies: The Connection Explained📊 What Are Tariffs & Why Should Traders Care? 💱
Tariffs are taxes imposed by a country on imported goods. Think of them as the "price of entry" foreign products must pay to access domestic markets.
🔍 Why Governments Use Them:
Protect domestic industries from cheaper foreign goods
Retaliate in trade disputes
Raise revenue (less common today)
🧠 Why Traders Should Watch Tariffs:
Tariffs don’t just hit companies—they ripple through economies and currency markets. Here’s how:
📉 1. Currency Impact
Tariffs can lead to currency depreciation in the targeted country as trade volumes fall and foreign demand drops.
Example: When the U.S. imposed tariffs on China, the Yuan weakened to offset the blow.
📈 2. Inflation Pressure
Tariffs make imports more expensive, fueling inflation. Central banks may respond with rate hikes—which moves markets.
🌐 3. Risk Sentiment
Tariff wars increase global uncertainty = risk-off sentiment. Traders flee riskier currencies (like EMFX) for safe havens like the USD, CHF, or JPY.
🔄 4. Trade Balance Shifts
Tariffs can affect a country's trade balance, influencing long-term currency valuation.
💡 Trading Tip:
Watch for tariff announcements or trade tension headlines—they often precede volatility spikes in major pairs. Combine with sentiment tools and fundamentals for best results.
MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD, USDCHF
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ #EURUSD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD formed a huge head and shoulders pattern.
The price is currently testing its horizontal neckline.
Bearish breakout of that and a daily candle close below
will confirm a bearish reversal and push the prices lower.
2️⃣ #USDCAD daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇦
The price is breaking a solid falling trend line.
Its violation is an important bullish signal that
indicates a strength of the buyers.
We can expect even more growth.
3️⃣ #NZDUSD daily time frame 🇺🇸🇳🇿
The pair is consolidating within a horizontal range.
The price is going to reach its support soon.
I suggest looking for a pullback trade from that then.
4️⃣ #USDCHF daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇭
The price is stuck within a horizontal parallel channel.
I expect a bullish continuation within that and a test
of its upper boundary.
Then, look for a confirmation to see and try to catch a retracement from that.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
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EURUSD Is Ready to Break Resistance LinesEURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is trying to break the Resistance lines , it has tried several times in the past few days but failed. Will EURUSD succeed this time?
In terms of Elliott wave theory , it seems that EURUSD has completed the main wave 4 near the Support zone($1.1300-$1.1160) and Support line , and we should wait for impulsive waves . Breaking the Resistance zone($1.1480-$1.1420) can confirm the end of the main wave 4 . Otherwise , the main wave 4 can have other forms.
I expect EURUSD to break the Resistance lines in this attack and rise to at least $1.1384 , and the next target can be around $1.1437 .
Note: If EURUSD can break below $1.1272(the worst Stop Loss(SL)), we can expect more dumps.
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Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame.
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Euro Holds Ground as German Output SurgesGermany’s March Industrial Production surprised to the upside, jumping 3.0% MoM vs. 0.8% expected, signalling a rebound in Europe’s economic engine. However, EUR/USD remains subdued near 1.1300 as markets shift focus to Fed policy signals and upcoming trade talks. On the chart, key support at 1.1280 is holding, a bounce from here could open room toward 1.1370/1.1500 if sentiment shifts. Keep an eye on macro cues and potential breakout momentum.
Resistance : 1.1374, 1.1558
Support : 1.1281, 1.1190