eurusd short trade trendline broken. no support underneath. should be a large delta move on the eurusd downwards
USDEUR trade ideas
EURUSD - Can Bulls Maintain Control?Overview
The EUR/USD 4-hour chart is currently displaying strong bullish momentum, confirmed by a breakout above a key resistance zone that previously acted as a rejection area. The price has successfully closed a candle above this resistance, indicating a shift in market sentiment toward further bullish movement. Additionally, the pair has been forming higher lows, a crucial sign of a strengthening uptrend. The combination of these technical factors suggests that EUR/USD is in a strong bullish phase, with the potential for continued upside movement. If this breakout holds and the market structure remains intact, we could see further bullish expansion in the coming sessions, making this a critical moment for traders to assess potential trading opportunities.
Detailed Analysis
1. Breakout of a Key Resistance Zone
The highlighted red resistance zone on the chart represents a historically significant level where price action has previously struggled to break through. This area has acted as a strong supply zone, leading to multiple rejections in the past. However, in the most recent price movement, EUR/USD has managed to break above this level, closing a 4-hour candle above it. This is a major bullish signal, as it confirms that buyers have gained control and are pushing the price into new territory.
A candle close above a key resistance zone is often seen as a strong confirmation that a breakout is valid. False breakouts are common in trading, but the presence of a solid close above the level reduces the likelihood of a fakeout and increases the probability of sustained bullish momentum. If the price remains above this level and does not fall back into the previous range, the breakout is likely to hold, opening the door for further upside movement.
2. Formation of Higher Lows and a Strong Uptrend
One of the most important indicators of bullish strength is the formation of higher lows, which we can clearly observe in this EUR/USD price action. Higher lows indicate that buyers are stepping in at progressively higher price levels, preventing the market from making deeper pullbacks. This shows increasing buying pressure and confidence among market participants.
The ascending trendline visible on the chart further confirms this bullish structure. As long as the market continues to form higher lows and remains above the trendline, the bullish trend remains intact. Traders often use these trendlines as dynamic support levels, meaning that future pullbacks could present opportunities to buy at favorable levels before the price resumes its upward movement.
3. Price Action Scenarios and Potential Market Behavior
Scenario 1: Retest and Continuation
A common pattern after a breakout is a retest of the broken resistance, which now acts as new support. If the price pulls back to this zone and finds strong buying interest, it would provide a high-probability long setup. A successful retest followed by bullish confirmation (such as bullish candlestick patterns or high buying volume) would signal that the breakout is strong and that the market is ready to continue higher.
Scenario 2: Immediate Bullish Expansion
If the buying pressure remains strong, the price may not even need a deep retest and could continue rallying straight to the next resistance levels. This would indicate strong market conviction and could lead to an accelerated bullish move.
Scenario 3: Fakeout and Breakdown
While this is less likely given the current structure, traders should remain aware that sometimes breakouts fail, and the price can fall back below the broken resistance. If this happens, it would invalidate the bullish scenario and suggest that the market still lacks the strength to sustain higher prices.
4. Key Levels to Watch for Confirmation
To manage risk effectively and identify potential trade opportunities, it is essential to monitor key price levels:
Support Level (Retest Zone)
The previous resistance zone, now acting as support, should be closely observed. If the price remains above this level and forms bullish price action (such as bullish engulfing candles, pin bars, or high-volume buying), it would confirm the breakout and signal further upside potential.
Resistance Levels (Upside Targets)
The next potential resistance areas can be found by analyzing previous swing highs and psychological price levels:
1.1000 level – A major psychological round number that could act as the next short-term target.
1.1100 – 1.1200 zone – The next key resistance area based on historical price action.
Conclusion and Trading Strategy Consideration
Conclusion
EUR/USD is showing strong bullish momentum, with a confirmed breakout above resistance and a candle close supporting this move. The formation of higher lows reinforces the bullish outlook, suggesting that buyers are in control. As long as the price remains above the broken resistance zone, the probability of further upside remains high.
Given the strong technical structure, bullish market sentiment, and the presence of higher lows, EUR/USD is looking very bullish at the moment, with the potential to reach higher resistance levels in the near future. Traders should remain attentive to key price action developments to maximize trading opportunities in this trending market.
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Trump Zelensky and Putin Phone Calls
Hi, my name is Andrea Russo and I am a Forex Trader. Today I want to talk to you about how the recent phone calls between Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin have had a significant impact on the financial markets, especially the Forex market.
In recent days, US President Donald Trump has had crucial phone conversations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. These talks have mainly focused on finding a truce in the conflict in Ukraine and stabilizing international relations.
Trump-Zelensky Phone Call
The call between Trump and Zelensky was described as "very good" by both leaders. During the conversation, Trump promised support for strengthening Ukraine's air defense, with a focus on the resources available in Europe. In addition, the possibility of the United States taking a role in managing Ukraine's energy infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants, to ensure greater security was discussed2. This has opened up hope for a partial truce, with technical negotiations expected in the coming days in Saudi Arabia.
Trump-Putin Call
The conversation between Trump and Putin, which lasted about three hours, touched on key issues such as the ceasefire and the need for lasting peace. Both leaders agreed on a path that includes a partial ceasefire on energy infrastructure and negotiations to extend the truce to the Black Sea. In addition, they discussed improving bilateral relations between the United States and Russia, with a focus on economic and geopolitical cooperation5.
Impact on the Forex Market
These developments had an immediate impact on the Forex market. The prospect of a truce strengthened the Russian ruble (RUB) and the Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH), while the US dollar (USD) showed slight volatility due to the uncertainties surrounding the negotiations. Investors reacted positively to the possibility of geopolitical stabilization, increasing demand for emerging market currencies. However, the market remains cautious, awaiting further details on the negotiations and the actual implementation of the measures discussed.
Conclusion
The phone calls between Trump, Zelensky and Putin represent a significant step towards resolving the conflict in Ukraine and stabilizing international relations. For Forex traders, these events offer opportunities but also risks, making it essential to closely monitor geopolitical developments and their implications on financial markets.
EUR/USD 4H Analysis – Bearish Breakdown Setup1. Market Structure & Trend
The EUR/USD chart shows a previous uptrend, confirmed by the ascending trendline, where the price made higher highs and higher lows. However, the trendline has now been broken, signaling a potential shift in market direction. The price is currently retracing from a key resistance zone, and a possible bearish continuation is expected.
2. Key Levels & Zones
✅ Resistance Zone (1.09563 - 1.1000):
This blue-shaded area represents a strong resistance level, where sellers have stepped in multiple times.
Price previously attempted to break this level but failed, forming a rejection.
This suggests buyers are losing strength, and sellers are likely to dominate.
✅ Support Level (1.0800 - 1.0780):
A critical support zone, which acted as a demand area in the past.
If price breaks below this level with strong bearish momentum, it confirms a trend reversal.
✅ Target Level (1.06870):
The next major downside target aligns with previous market structure and liquidity zones.
This area marks a key demand zone, where buyers might step in again.
3. Trade Setup & Execution Plan
🔹 Entry Strategy
A sell entry is ideal on a confirmed break and retest of the support zone at 1.0800.
If price retests this level and forms bearish rejection candles (such as pin bars or engulfing patterns), it strengthens the bearish bias.
🔹 Stop Loss & Risk Management
A stop loss should be placed above the resistance zone at 1.09563, ensuring a safe exit if the market reverses bullish.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
Entry: Below 1.0800 (after confirmation).
Stop Loss: Above 1.09563 (resistance zone).
Target: 1.06870 (support zone).
RRR: Around 1:3, meaning potential profit is three times the risk.
4. Confirmation Indicators & Confluences
✅ Bearish Trendline Break:
The ascending trendline has been broken, confirming a possible shift in trend.
✅ Support Flip:
If the price breaks support and retests it as resistance, it confirms bearish continuation.
✅ Price Action Candlestick Patterns:
Look for bearish engulfing candles, pin bars, or rejection wicks at key levels.
✅ Volume Analysis:
Increased selling pressure after support break indicates strong bearish momentum.
5. Final Thoughts & Bias
📉 Bias: Bearish (Unless resistance is reclaimed).
💡 Key Watch: Break and retest of 1.0800 support for confirmation.
⚠️ Risk Management: Always use a stop loss to manage risk effectively.
Conclusion
This setup presents a high-probability short trade with a clear entry, stop loss, and target. Traders should wait for confirmation signals before executing the trade. If price breaks above resistance, the bearish outlook is invalidated.
🔔 Stay cautious and trade with discipline! 🚀
Eurusd another new high coming?Time wise, this correction down is quite short in time, bulls can push for another new high but i believe it will take longer and more side ways before the actual move up.
Short term, i am entering both long and short for scalping, expecting price to be support at least for the short term.
Good luck.
EURDUSD - TCT M2 distribution in 2H - 6RR shortDecent looking RTZ and volume profile. Third tap felt a bit too close to the second one, but still valid in 2H. 5m BOS didn't quite break the VAH but also range didn't have any supply above to go to. Demand OBs below POC and range equilibrium. Good 6+ RR short.
USDEUR 4h time frame analysishi traders
Let's have a look at USDEUR in 4h time frame.
As we can see the price broke the downsloping resistance.
We believe that it's time for a pullback to the upside before continuing the downtrend.
Breakout seems to be real, but putting stop loss at 0,918 would be reasonable.
2 targets are shown on the chart.
EUR/USD Under Pressure as Profit-Taking Kicks InThe EUR/USD is experiencing a pullback following ECB comments and Morgan Stanley's recommendation to pause EUR long positions. Yet fundamentals suggest long-term bullish potential. What are the levels we should watch?
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EURUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
After a strong bullish rally, EURUSD has now reached the resistance zone.
As expected, the price has started to pull back from this resistance level.
We anticipate the correction to continue toward the specified level before the price resumes its upward movement.
The pair remains in an overall uptrend, and these pullbacks could present buying opportunities within the trend.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
EURUSD LIVE TRADE UPDATE 9K IN PROFITS EUR/USD falls to near 1.0860 as ECB Lagarde expects US President Trump-led trade war could slowdown the Eurozone economic growth.
The Fed kept borrowing rates steady and stuck to their two interest rate cut in 2025 forecasts on Wednesday.
The Fed expects Trump’s policies to weigh on US economic growth and accelerate price pressures.
EUR/USD declines to near 1.0860 in European trading hours on Thursday. The major currency pair drops as the Euro (EUR) faces pressure after European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warned of Eurozone economic risks due to potential tariffs by the United States (US).
Lagarde testified before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament during European trading hours on Thursday. She said that US tariffs of 25% on imports from Europe, as threatened by US President Donald Trump, would lower “Euro area growth by about 0.3% in the first year”, according to an ECB analysis. The study also shows that retaliatory tariffs from Europe would further increase this to about 0.5%.
EUR | USD THE DOLLAR SHAKES, THE EURO DANCES with PipGuardEUR | USD THE DOLLAR SHAKES, THE EURO DANCES with PipGuard
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GOOD MORNING, DEAR NON-FRIENDS!
Yeah, because if you were my friends, we’d be throwing death stares at each other by the coffee machine every time someone dared to question my analysis. But instead, here I am—calm, composed, and totally not petty.
Today, we’re talking about EUR/USD. But first, a challenge: SHOW ME ANOTHER ANALYSIS FROM NOVEMBER THAT'S STILL ACCURATE TODAY.
Go check the related article. Do yourself a favor, so maybe you’ll stop busting my chops at the coffee machine. Oh, by the way, got a spare euro? No? Alright, no analysis for you.
Just kidding, just kidding. I know you’re smart, humble, and definitely not thin-skinned… or at least, I hope so, otherwise, get ready for another lawsuit.
Anyway, let’s be clear—my analysis is NOT financial advice.
No, you don’t need to mortgage your house and bet it all. Also, let’s be real, you don’t even have one! 😆
LET’S GET TO THE POINT.
Back in November, I called the U.S. recession.
Guess who didn’t call me? Bloomberg.
Guess who did? An investment fund.
And guess how it went? Badly. My spoken English is worse than a drunk tourist trying to order a beer in a London pub, so I panicked and hung up. 📞❌
Unless you want to talk money 💰 or women 💃, don’t call me. Write me. But again—only for money or women, not for emotional support. I’m not your therapist.
EUROPE, REARMAMENT, AND THE CIRCUS OF POWER.
Same old show:
The tall blond guy with the orange face? Check.
The bald dude in the tie? Still there.
The political circus? In full swing. 🎭
But let’s cut to the chase: if you’re in the Eurozone, BUY A HOUSE.
I did— 180K for 122 square meters of prime real estate. Solid deal.
And why?
Because the euro is set to rise. 📈
Because Russia is in an economic lockdown.
Because when sanctions lift, we’ll likely see a mini Russian market collapse.
And the dollar? The U.S. is reliving 2008, but this time, it’s even dumber.
What’s different? Instead of subprime mortgages, now it’s credit card debt spiraling out of control.
Yes, you heard me. Americans are sinking their economy with loans for iPhones, 85-inch TVs, and vacations to Hawaii.
And banks?
“No worries, the debt is under control.”
Oh yeah? So if you’re 100K in debt for a house, that’s a crisis, but if you blow 100K on home decor and luxury junk, that’s fine? Make it make sense.
But who cares—I’m Italian, I eat pasta for breakfast. 🍝 Their problem, not mine.
NOW, THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.
Trend is BULLISH, get that in your head. Look for long setups, not shorts. If you must short, do it only for retracements.
Reversal zone: 1.082 – 1.095.
If it closes above, we keep going up.
Watch out for liquidity between 1.099 and 1.10.
If price gets there, look for a key level on the 4H. If it reacts bearish, wait for confirmation before shorting. If it closes above, we send it to 1.21.
Other key support levels:
1.076 – 1.062, solid area for bullish reaction.
If that’s not enough, 1.060 – 1.052 is the ultimate buy zone.
If you mess up, toss your PC. 💻🔥
Kidding. Hold on tight, because price is going up from there.
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Or else… I’ll have to come find you.
Much love, PipGuard.
EURUSD DROPPING ?? OR THIS IS JUST RETESTING EUR/USD has recently experienced a bearish rising wedge breakout, a pattern that typically signals a potential downtrend reversal. Currently, the pair is undergoing a retest phase, a common occurrence where the price revisits the broken support level before resuming its downward trajectory. This phase is crucial for traders as it often determines whether the breakout was genuine or if price action will invalidate the move.
As of March 20, 2025, the EUR/USD is trading around 1.085, with a target price set at 1.070. The retest phase offers traders an opportunity to enter short positions, anticipating further declines toward the target. It's essential to monitor key support levels during this period, particularly around 1.0767, where buyers have previously stepped in. A strong rejection from this level could accelerate bearish momentum, pushing the pair lower in alignment with the breakout pattern.
Fundamental factors are also shaping the current market sentiment. The recent FOMC decision to maintain interest rates has kept the U.S. dollar in a relatively strong position, while the European Central Bank has taken a more cautious approach regarding rate cuts. This divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and ECB may add further pressure on the euro, making the bearish setup more compelling. Additionally, any unexpected macroeconomic data releases, such as U.S. inflation numbers or Eurozone GDP data, could further influence price action.
Traders should closely watch for confirmation signals during the retest phase, such as bearish rejection candles or increased selling volume. Implementing proper risk management strategies, such as stop-loss placement above the broken support level, is crucial to navigating potential reversals. If the bearish momentum continues as expected, EUR/USD could hit the 1.070 target in the coming sessions, providing a profitable short trade opportunity.
Long on EURUSDLooking to buy EURUSD and possibly create new highs. I will be looking for price to bounce from these prices of 1.08037 to 1.084
EURUSD Consolidates; Watch for a Bearish Pullback
After a strong bullish run, EURUSD has shifted into a sideways phase. The double‐tap near 1.0950 hints at fading upward momentum. Multiple quick breakouts above and below the 200‐period moving average confirm choppy market conditions. However, the short‐term technical bias suggests a push lower toward the 1.0840 zone—about 60+ pips from current levels—before the pair finds firmer support.
(This is a technical view, not financial advice. Always manage risk accordingly.)
EURUSDwhole plan for EU .
1-Swept liquidity
2- making 1 day fractals shift
3- 4h already happened
So waiting for 1d fractals shift to confirm it's down move.
EURUSD is BearishPrice was in an uptrend, however the bulls seem to be exhausted now. Bearish RSI divergence with a double top pattern is a strong indication of bearish control over price action. If previous higher low is broken then we can expect a bearish reversal as per Dow theory. Targets are mentioned on the chart.
EURUSD Trades Taken What did I learnEURUSD
Trades Taken
What did I learn:
*Trust what your reading instead of projecting.
*I appreciate that you are staying open to what Price is printing
*your backtesting the direction has been very accurate
*trades taken were very messy and stalling instead of trusting
*follow your rules
Hindsight notes
When price did not break through the equal highs and primarily rebalance the bottom of the FVG that is tipping its hand price will seek lower prices.
Price 22:00 candle I think is a bearish order block and then creates a swing low which is violated on 0:30 candle that could have been an entry for the short
Confidence was the cross reference of DXY/GBP as they were far from there 50 level leading me to believe that short was a good idea
More confirmation at 2 macro and then again at 3 macro
The 4 macro scared me out after 4 sloppy trades of attempting to catch it.
I still managed to scalp 30 pips but they were messy and not following your rules.
Span out and be more proactive in Asia as it plays a key role in telling what Price is doing.
Today is a win and a further double down on your rules and reading all timeframes.
Be more dynamic in reading price.
Good job
eurusd h4 pullback in progress buy dips target 1150🏆 eurusd Market Update
📊 Technical Outlook
🔸Mid-term: BEARISH OUTLOOK
🔸Status: pullback in progress
🔸Hit resistance at 0950
🔸0650/0660 normal pullback
🔸300 pullback off the recent highs
🔸BULLS still maintain control
🔸Price Target Bears: 0650/0660
🔸Price Target BULLS: 1100/1150
📊🔥 Latest EUR/USD & Fed Update
🛑 Federal Reserve Decision:
🏦 Fed Holds Rates Steady – No rate cuts yet, citing economic uncertainty. 📉⚖️
📊 Growth Forecasts Lowered – 2025 GDP outlook down to 1.7% as trade tensions weigh on the economy. 🌍📉
💸 Inflation Expectations Rise – Now at 2.7%, signaling persistent price pressures. 🔥💰
💱 EUR/USD Market Reaction:
💹 EUR/USD Steady at 1.0900 – Traders await ECB President Lagarde’s speech for further direction. 🏦🇪🇺
📉 USD Under Pressure – DXY drops to 103.40, as declining yields weaken the dollar. 💵🔻
📊 Market Cautious – Investors eye ECB policies & Fed rate-cut expectations for next moves. 🔍
ECB Rate Cut Hopes Fade, EUR/USD Nears 1.0900EUR/USD fell for a second day, nearing 1.0900 in the Asian session. The pair found support as the dollar weakened on falling Treasury yields after the Fed reaffirmed plans for two rate cuts. However, uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies kept sentiment cautious.
In Europe, German lawmakers approved a debt plan by likely Chancellor Friedrich Merz to increase growth and defense spending. A shift from Germany’s conservative fiscal stance could drive inflation and influence ECB policy.
Investors await ECB President Lagarde’s speech on economic and monetary affairs in Brussels on Thursday.
Key resistance is at 1.0950, followed by 1.1000 and 1.1050. Support stands at 1.0880, with further levels at 1.0800 and 1.0730.
Eurusd is still bullish This EUR/USD daily chart from FXCM suggests a bullish breakout following a well-formed rounded bottom pattern.
Key Observations:
Rounded Bottom Formation: This pattern, marked with multiple lows (highlighted in orange circles), signals a gradual trend reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend.
Breakout Confirmation: Price has broken above the rounded resistance, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Projected Price Movement: The hand-drawn path suggests further upside, with possible retests before continuing higher.
Volume Profile: Increased activity around the 1.0900 level suggests strong support, with potential resistance near 1.1200 - 1.1400.
Conclusion:
This setup indicates a bullish continuation, but confirmation through sustained volume and price action above resistance is crucial.
20.03.25 Morning ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:EURUSD
FX:GBPUSD
FX:AUDJPY
FX:NZDJPY
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
EURUSD SHORT DAYTRADING SIGNALStock traders may advise shareholders and help manage portfolios. Traders engage in buying and selling bonds, stocks, futures and shares in hedge funds. A stock trader also conducts extensive research and observation of how financial markets perform. This is accomplished through economic and microeconomic study; consequently, more advanced stock traders will delve into macroeconomics and industry specific technical analysis to track asset or corporate performance. Other duties of a stock trader include comparison of financial analysis to current and future regulation of his or her occupation.
