04.12.2024 - EU Longs - Liquidity HuntLH setup for EU longs. Market liquidated PDL. We have shift in a H1 FVG. Looking to get 1:3 RR.
USDEUR trade ideas
Euro reacts to French budget crisis: France to set up a DOGE?The euro remains under strain as French PM Michel Barnier faced a no-confidence vote over a divisive budget plan of tax hikes and spending cuts. The vote closed at 8:20 p.m. local time.
President Macron is expected to swiftly appoint a caretaker PM if Barnier’s government collapses, ahead of July elections.
Barnier warned that France’s debt burden—€60bn in annual interest, surpassing defense and education budgets—demands tough fiscal reforms regardless of leadership. Maybe every western nation needs to establish a DOGE (Department Of Government Efficiency)?
EUR/USD traders now eye key technical levels: resistance near 1.0550, with risks of retesting support at 1.0500 and 1.0450 if momentum fades
1,06113 the decision point for EURUSD Currently, the 4H chart shows indecision on this pair. The key level to watch is 1.061113, which is the price structure that led to the last break of structure. If the price manages to break this level with sufficient momentum, I expect a retest of the demand zone, followed by a continuation upward. However, there is also a possibility that the price will enter a ranging phase, which is ideal for scalpers to trade within the range.
If you decide to trade this idea, do not trade the first move, as it could be a trap. Instead, wait for the right moment to enter. For beginners, I will update this trade setup if and when entry conditions are met. Good luck!
Note: I am not a signal service, but I do share trade ideas. If you're looking for buy signals through some kind of "premium channel," you might want to contact one of the signal providers who often comment on various ideas, aiming to attract beginners into purchasing something. Instead, invest your time in learning and trading based on your own analysis.
This will help you avoid constant confusion. I know it can be challenging at the beginning, but it will be worth it in the long term. Aim to be a marathoner, not a sprinter, in trading.
EUR/USD IDEAHello again friends, I want to try to buy this currency, the market is in a sell flow, but I understand that it will be psychologically buy for a short time. I understand that maybe the behavior of the market will change, that our main expected zone will break the strong return zone above the market, and it will be more reliable if we retest from there and enter further buy, what is your idea?
EUR/USD Intraday Short Idea: 5:1 RRLong term downtrend on the EUR, with price tapping a 4H key level, and the 0.618 FIB level. I think it's very possible to see price sweep liquidity once more down at 1.047.
EURUSD WILL MOVE UPOur analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis
Based on our view the price will rise to the monthly level
DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please this is a PREDICTION and I have no reason to act on it and neither should you
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The Cascade Effect: A Force for Success or Self-Sabotage
The path to successful trading can sometimes feel overwhelming. The reality is daunting, with numerous small and often psychologically challenging biases that need to be overcome daily. However, an awareness of certain chain reactions—like the "Cascade Effect"—can make the mountain top feel within reach.
By harnessing this effect, traders can set in motion a sequence of positive actions that build on each other, creating momentum and growth. On the flip side, if neglected, these small actions can spark a downward spiral, triggered by seemingly insignificant missteps.
Understanding the Cascade Effect: From Fitness to Finance
The Cascade Effect is a concept well-documented in fields like fitness and psychology, where small, consistent actions lead to either upward or downward trajectories in well-being. This principle is not new; research has shown how even one positive action can trigger a chain of beneficial events.
For example, a study exploring the daily impact of exercise found that participants who engaged in physical activity experienced more positive social interactions and achieved more goals, both on the same day and even the next. The researchers concluded, "Exercise creates a positive cascade, increasing positive social and achievement events experienced on the same day and positive social events on the following day." In essence, a simple action like exercising acts as a powerful catalyst, initiating a cycle of rewarding behaviours that reinforce one another and drive overall well-being.
In trading, this concept applies in a similar way. A small, disciplined action—such as a daily review of market conditions—can serve as the foundation for more deliberate decision-making throughout the day.
The Positive Cascade Effect in Trading
The positive Cascade Effect in trading begins with small, intentional actions. For instance, starting the day with a dedicated market review—whether analysing charts, tracking news, or identifying key levels—creates a sense of preparedness. This act of preparation forms the bedrock for disciplined trading decisions throughout the day. These small actions can set off a chain of events that builds mental momentum. As the trader continuously follows these routines, they not only feel more grounded in their approach but also less vulnerable to impulsive decisions or emotional trading.
A powerful example of this positive cascade is the practice of trade journaling. By regularly reviewing each trade and assessing what went well or could be improved, traders gain valuable insight into their unique strengths and weaknesses. This reflection process reinforces positive behaviours while shedding light on areas that need refinement. With each small improvement, traders feel a sense of progress and growth. As this momentum accumulates, their approach becomes more disciplined, which over time can yield more consistent, positive results. This continuous loop of reflection, adjustment, and improvement leads to a more robust trading strategy, underpinned by both mental and emotional resilience.
The Negative Cascade Effect in Trading
Unfortunately, the Cascade Effect can work in the opposite direction, leading to a negative spiral that can be just as powerful, if not more so. Missing a pre-trade routine or skipping chart analysis may seem inconsequential at first, but these small lapses can gradually erode a trader’s discipline. For example, a trader who skips their market prep one day might find it easier to do the same the next day, creating a chain reaction that leads to increasingly haphazard trades. These small oversights compound over time, causing habits to deteriorate and weakening the foundation of a trader’s strategy. As these small mistakes pile up, the trader’s decisions become more reactive rather than proactive, and the trading process feels less grounded and more erratic.
The impact of impulsive decisions can also amplify the negative Cascade Effect. For example, after a loss triggered by an impulsive trade, the trader may feel frustrated, leading them to chase losses or engage in revenge trading. This emotional response worsens the situation, compounding the original mistake. The resulting cycle of frustration and hasty decisions chips away at the trader’s confidence and increases mental strain. Over time, this pattern not only harms trading performance but also makes it more difficult to break free from the cycle. It’s crucial to recognise these small slips early on to prevent them from spiralling into bigger problems that can ultimately undermine your entire approach.
Ensuring a Positive Cascade Effect: Cultivating Conscious Habits
To ensure that the Cascade Effect works in your favour, focus on routines that reinforce discipline and mindfulness. By cultivating awareness and consistency, you can leverage the Cascade Effect to build positive momentum in your trading. Here are a few practices that can help:
• Morning Pre-Trade Routine: Start each day with a consistent market analysis session. Reviewing news, technical setups, and key levels not only prepares you mentally but also sets a positive tone for the day.
• Post-Trade Journaling: After each trade, take the time to reflect on your decisions, emotions, and outcomes. This habit keeps you aware of your decision-making process and allows for continuous learning.
• Mindfulness and Meditation: Incorporating a few minutes of meditation each day can help you stay centred, reducing emotional reactions and fostering awareness of your thoughts and actions.
These habits create a solid foundation for discipline and self-awareness, empowering you to harness the Cascade Effect in a way that can keep the forces of momentum working for you.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
EurusdMy idea for eurusd structure h4 still downtrend..
If you can see eurusd h4 didn't make it any new H..
EURUSD A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.0523
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.0496
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
#022 DCA EURUSD SHORT Power MovePrice made a power move into a significant resistance level and I decided to short it.
I have placed the 1st Sell Limit at the next major resistance level if price does move against us.
I am currently in drawdown on the AUDCHF and SGDJPY trade but oh well, since I have yet to enter on anything EUR or USD I think this is a great opportunity for me to continue trading and also serves as some kind of hedge so long as EURUSD moves in our intended direction, or the other pairs I am trading recovers.
Shall see..
2335SGT 04122024
EURUSD-TIME FOR REVERSAL- SWING TRADEReversal Opportunity Amid a Bearish Bias
FX:EURUSD
The EUR/USD is showing potential for a reversal, although the overall probabilities remain bearish. This setup offers an opportunity with a possible 3RR.
Trade Management:
Today's FED meeting could cause sharp and unexpected market movements. It’s crucial to keep a tight SL to protect against liquidity hunts, especially near the November PML wick. The TP is set at the bearish FVA, but if the price reaches this area, it could signal a higher probability of continued upside.
Stay cautious and adapt to market conditions. Manage your risk and remember: capital preservation comes first.
"EUR/USD: Rebound Before Deeper Decline"The EUR/USD currency pair finds itself in a delicate phase of local correction, driven primarily by the temporary softening of the US dollar. This correction comes amidst a backdrop of complex global dynamics and heightened market sensitivity to news-driven events. The currency pair appears poised to retest local highs in the short term, yet traders should approach this opportunity with a heightened sense of vigilance. Today’s economic calendar is packed with high-impact events, and the fundamental backdrop remains skewed heavily toward negativity for the euro. These factors could amplify volatility and result in sharp, unpredictable price movements.
### **Macro and Fundamental Overview**
From a macroeconomic perspective, the euro faces a host of challenges that continue to undermine its strength. Persistent global headwinds, such as the lingering effects of Trump-era policies, including tariffs targeting European exports, have placed sustained pressure on the region’s trade dynamics. Meanwhile, Europe’s monetary policy stance remains dovish, with the European Central Bank leaning toward maintaining or even reducing already historically low interest rates. Such a backdrop has solidified the downtrend in EUR/USD, both on a broader and local scale.
The US dollar, despite its temporary pullback, remains supported by its role as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. Factors such as a resilient US labor market, better-than-expected GDP figures, and the Fed’s measured approach to monetary policy keep the dollar attractive relative to the euro. The interplay of these forces suggests that the euro’s upward momentum during corrections is likely to remain limited and short-lived.
### **Technical Analysis: False Breakouts and Resistance Retests**
On the technical front, the EUR/USD pair is exhibiting signs of a potential false breakout below key support levels. Such patterns often serve as a precursor to temporary price recoveries, as market participants test resistance levels before resuming the dominant trend. In this context, the price action suggests that a retest of nearby resistance levels, coupled with bearish reversal patterns, could pave the way for renewed selling opportunities.
The most immediate resistance levels to monitor are 1.0606, 1.0650, and 1.0760. These zones are likely to attract selling pressure, especially if bearish sentiment is reinforced by today’s news events. Conversely, support levels at 1.0517, 1.0440, and 1.0330 remain critical. A decisive break below these levels could accelerate the pair’s descent, signaling the continuation of the broader downtrend.
### **News Sensitivity and Bearish Triggers**
Given the heavily saturated news cycle, traders should remain particularly attentive to market reactions to economic releases and geopolitical developments. Key announcements, such as US labor market data, European inflation figures, or updates on trade negotiations, could act as catalysts for sharp price swings. If bearish triggers dominate, such as unexpectedly hawkish commentary from the Fed or further downgrades to Europe’s growth outlook, the pair is likely to face renewed selling pressure, particularly at resistance zones.
### **Trading Strategy and Outlook**
In this environment, a prudent trading approach involves waiting for confirmation of bearish reversal signals at resistance levels before considering short positions. Patience is key, as the market may temporarily attempt to test or even breach resistance before resuming its downward trajectory. Traders should also consider using tight stop-loss levels to mitigate risk, given the potential for heightened volatility.
To summarize, while the local correction in EUR/USD presents a short-term opportunity to test resistance levels, the overarching bearish narrative remains intact. The interplay of weak euro fundamentals, dovish monetary policy, and a generally strong US dollar points to further downside potential. Monitoring key technical levels, understanding news-driven volatility, and adopting a disciplined approach to risk management will be crucial for navigating the next phase of this downtrend.
EURUSD: Bearish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
Looking at the chart of EURUSD right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move down seems to be quite likely.
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EUR/USD GET THE MONEY!Looking EUR/USD chart here are my observations:
1. Price Action & Trend Analysis
Current Price: 1.04923, indicating a downward trajectory.
The pair is clearly in a downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows being formed over the past few months.
The price is below both the 50 EMA (1.0728) and the 200 EMA (1.0832), which reinforces the bearish trend.
Recent candles show a consolidation near 1.0500, suggesting indecision or the formation of a short-term base.
2. Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance:
Immediate resistance is near 1.0532 (highlighted zone on the chart).
Further resistance lies around 1.0600, which aligns with the EMA levels and a previous support-turned-resistance zone.
Support:
The current price seems to be hovering just above a support level at 1.0450, which aligns with the recent lows.
A breakdown below this could lead to a retest of the next support at 1.0400 or lower.
3. Indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Currently at 33.88, indicating the pair is near the oversold zone. While this suggests bearish pressure, it could also hint at a potential reversal if buyers step in.
MACD:
The MACD line is below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum.
However, the histogram shows a slight reduction in selling pressure, suggesting that bearish momentum could be weakening.
4. Observations from Chart Patterns and Signals
Multiple red sell signals indicate sustained bearish sentiment.
The blue buy signal near recent support (around 1.0450) suggests potential for a small bounce or reversal at this level.
Consolidation near the psychological level of 1.0500 might lead to a breakout or breakdown, depending on market sentiment.
5. Sentiment & Fundamentals
The news on the right-hand side (e.g., "Euro steady ahead of French no-confidence vote") suggests macroeconomic factors could heavily influence the pair.
Continued bearishness in EUR/USD could also be linked to strength in the USD or weakness in the Eurozone economy.
Lower Highs (LH)
First LH: Around 1.1275 (visible at the top of the chart), marking the peak before the downtrend started.
Second LH: Around 1.1050, where the price attempted to rally but failed, forming a lower peak.
Third LH: Around 1.0850, a smaller rebound that also failed below the previous lower high.
Fourth LH: Around 1.0650, the most recent swing high before continuing downward.
Lower Lows (LL)
First LL: Around 1.0950, the initial significant dip after the first LH.
Second LL: Around 1.0750, breaking below the first LL and continuing the downtrend.
Third LL: Around 1.0550, the next lower trough as the downtrend persisted.
Fourth LL: Around 1.0450, the current area of consolidation and the lowest point on the chart so far.
Visual Explanation
The sequence alternates between lower highs (peaks) and lower lows (troughs), forming the classic downtrend structure:
Lower High → Lower Low → Lower High → Lower Low.
Key Levels to Watch
A new lower low below 1.0450 would confirm the continuation of the downtrend.
A higher high above 1.0532 (recent swing resistance) could signal a potential trend reversal.
Summary
Bearish Bias: The pair is in a clear downtrend. A break below 1.0450 could open doors for further downside toward 1.0400 or lower.
Potential Reversal: If RSI stays near oversold levels and the pair holds the 1.0450 support zone, we might see a short-term bounce to retest 1.0532 or higher.
Actionable Levels:
Watch for a breakout above 1.0532 for bullish opportunities.
A breakdown below 1.0450 confirms bearish continuation.
THIS AINT FINANCIAL ADVICE YOU DO YOU!!
EURO - Price can bounce down from resistance area to $1.0385Hi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few days ago price bounced from $1.1000 level and rose to $1.1205 points, after which turned around.
Then price started to decline inside falling channel, where it at once reached and broke $1.1000 level.
After this, EUR fell to support line of falling channel, and then bounced and rose to resisatnce line, making a first gap.
Price made downward impulse, thereby exiting from channel and starting to trades inside flat, breaking $1.0585 level too.
In flat, Euro fell to bottom part but then turned around, made a second gap, and now trades close to $1.0585 level.
In my mind, Euro can enter to resistance area and then start to decline to $1.0385, which coincides with bottom part of flat.
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EURUSD trade idea trade idea to shot EURUSD, waiting for a breakout, then enter on retest to enter trades.
but double check for other conferences to execute your trades.
Silver Bullet Strategy EURUSD AUDUSD | 03/12/2024Trading the Silver Bullet strategy was tough yesterday. While many may only discuss the wins associated with their trading strategies, we encountered some losses yesterday. We entered two trades on two major currency pairs (EURUSD, AUDUSD) and aim to walk you through what happened during our trading session using the Silver Bullet strategy.
At 10:00 EST, we began scouting for potential trading setups, as this marks the beginning of the Silver Bullet window, which concludes at 11:00 EST. By 10:20 EST, a Fair Value Gap (FVG) had formed on the EURUSD currency pair, presenting us with a sell bias and directing our attention to potential selling opportunities in EURUSD for the current trading session. Upon reviewing AUDUSD, we observed that an FVG had also formed at 10:20 EST, further indicating a sell bias for the currency pair.
Once we establish a bias, we typically wait for a retracement into the formed FVG and only execute the trade after the candle that enters the FVG has closed. This step is crucial on our checklist because our backtesting revealed scenarios where the candle entering the FVG could proceed to hit the stop loss. This check helps us avoid entering trades under such conditions. Meanwhile, those who use limit orders may find themselves at a disadvantage in these situations. After a 20-minute wait following the formation of the FVG, we identified a trade on EURUSD that satisfied all the criteria on our checklist, and without hesitation, we proceeded to execute the trade.
In this trade, since the high of candle number 1 from the entry price is approximately 7 pips, which does not satisfy the minimum stop loss requirement, we adjust it to a 10 pips stop loss, our minimum threshold. This rule ensures the trade has sufficient room to fluctuate. Immediately after executing the EURUSD trade, we identified another opportunity with AUDUSD that met all the criteria on our checklist. As it fulfilled the necessary requirements, we proceeded without hesitation to execute the trade.
Please be aware that we risk 1% of our trading account on each trade. This level of risk is acceptable for us, as it's an amount we're comfortable with potentially losing, thus preventing emotional attachment to the trades. Ten minutes after initiating a sell position on EURUSD, our trade reached the stop loss, resulting in a 1% loss for the day. Consequently, we are left with our sell position on AUDUSD.
After incurring a loss on EURUSD, we examined the AUDUSD position and found that this trade was also facing a drawdown. Did we experience any emotions upon realizing we might lose 2% that day? No, because we had already accepted the risk and were prepared for any outcome, whether it was a win or a loss. We were aware that the strategy's win rate was around 48%, indicating that losses are a part of the process. However, with a positive risk-to-reward ratio, our wins are expected to outweigh the losses.
While awaiting the outcome of the AUDUSD trade, we noticed a setup on USDCAD where a Fair Value Gap (FVG) had formed. However, upon closer inspection, we realized it materialized exactly at 11:00 EST. This timing meant we couldn't engage in the trade, as our checklist mandates that trades must be executed before 11:00 EST, thus invalidating this setup. It's important to note our discipline here; despite the temptation, we didn't enter another trade out of revenge. Instead, we let it pass because it failed to meet certain criteria on our checklist. Discipline is a crucial quality of a successful trader and should never be underestimated.
Upon reviewing the AUDUSD trade once more, we observed that it was no longer in a drawdown; instead, the trade had returned to our entry price. Consequently, there was no action required other than to allow the trade to proceed as it will
After being in the trade for an hour and 10 minutes, the AUDUSD position hit the stop loss, putting us down 2% for the day. Indeed, we took two losses and it's likely we'll face more, as that is the nature of trading. It's normal to encounter multiple losses throughout your trading career, and it's crucial not to let them discourage you. Ensure that any strategy you use has been thoroughly backtested and has the data to support its long-term profitability. Also, make certain that your wins consistently exceed your losses, so that during a losing streak, just a few wins can compensate for the losses.
What Do you think?EU has been respecting the monthly order blocks and has consistently been on the rise.
What do you think?
EURUSD - Near a Bearish BreakWe were expecting a bullish continuation on EURUSD however as the Dollar continues to go up, EURUSD is edging a breakout which could open lower levels. If the support holds, we should see a Bullish reversal otherwise it is destined for a bearish move.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
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Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
EURUSD SHORT - NEW STRATEGYI have been working hard on a new Lower time frame Long/Short early momentum strategy. Larger drawdown but much bigger Risk to reward.
Forward testing mode on a live account. Lets see how we shape up compared to the backtest...
(separate account to my HTF long only momentum strategy)
TP1- 1.03527
TP2- Manual Close TBC
New Strategy Log
Trade 1- BNBUSDT - (-1)
Trade 2- BTCUSD - (-0.5)
Trade 3 - ETHUSDT
Trade 4 - EURUSD
EURUSD H1 04/12/2024 - SELL below 1.04900 OR BUY above 1.05150Time Frame Analysis
D1 (Daily Timeframe)
Trend: Bearish overall, with the price below the Ichimoku Cloud and the 200 SMA. However, the price is consolidating above the 1.0490–1.0500 support zone.
Indicators:
RSI: 38.7, near oversold but stabilizing.
Stochastic: Slightly bearish but approaching a bullish crossover near 50.
MACD: Negative but narrowing, showing consolidation.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0550–1.0580 (Daily Ichimoku and prior highs).
Support: 1.0480–1.0490 (Key structural support).
H4 (4-Hour Timeframe)
Trend: Price is consolidating below the 200 SMA and inside the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating uncertainty.
Indicators:
RSI: 44, slightly bearish.
Stochastic: Neutral, with potential for a bullish crossover.
MACD: Negative but flat, showing low momentum.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0530 (upper Ichimoku boundary), 1.0550.
Support: 1.0490 (lower Ichimoku boundary), 1.0465.
H1 (Hourly Timeframe)
Trend: Consolidating within a tight range of 1.0490–1.0510.
Indicators:
RSI: 46, leaning bearish but neutral.
Stochastic: Slight bearish crossover but near oversold, with potential for reversal.
MACD: Flat, showing consolidation.
ATR: 16 pips, indicating low volatility.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0515–1.0530 (recent highs and Ichimoku resistance).
Support: 1.0490 (current floor), 1.0465 (next support below).
M30 (30-Minute Timeframe)
Trend: Similar to H1, consolidating within a tight range.
Indicators: Neutral with signs of potential support near 1.0490.
Trade Scenarios
Scenario A: Bullish Breakout (BUY Setup)
Rationale: If the price holds above 1.0490 support and breaks above 1.0515, it could target the next resistance levels.
Setup Details:
Entry Price: Above 1.0515 (breakout confirmation).
Stop-Loss: 1.0490 (below consolidation support).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0530 (H4 Ichimoku resistance).
TP2: 1.0550 (Daily resistance level).
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Scenario B: Bearish Breakdown (SELL Setup)
Rationale: If the price breaks below 1.0490, it could target lower support levels, aligning with the broader bearish trend.
Setup Details:
Entry Price: Below 1.0490 (breakdown confirmation).
Stop-Loss: 1.0510 (above consolidation).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0465 (next key support).
TP2: 1.0440 (H4 and Daily support area).
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Correlated Instruments to Monitor
DXY (US Dollar Index):
A weaker DXY supports the BUY scenario (EUR/USD up).
A stronger DXY supports the SELL scenario (EUR/USD down).
Gold (XAU/USD):
If gold rises, it could weaken the USD and support a BUY trade on EUR/USD.
US 10-Year Treasury Yields:
Rising yields favor USD strength (SELL scenario).
Falling yields favor USD weakness (BUY scenario).
