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Giveaway: Happy Holidays & Merry Christmas!It's that time of year where we can openly say (without sounding too cringe) how thankful we are to have you. Your unwavering support, charting enthusiasm, and shared passion for the markets is what drives us. You've been the heartbeat of our work and community. As we close the book on another year of trading, we’re reminded that it’s not just the numbers or the record highs — it’s you that makes this journey worthwhile. Happy Holidays from all of us at TradingView! May your holidays be filled with warmth, laughter, and just the right amount of volatility to keep things exciting. 🥂📈 Wishing you a breakout year ahead, fewer false signals, and plenty of wins — on and off the charts. 🥁 And now... 🥁 🎁 THE GIVEAWAY 🎁 Who: 🏆 THREE LUCKY WINNERS 🏆 walk away with prizes What: 🚀 PREMIUM PLAN 🚀 for a full year When: ⏳ JANUARY 3 ⏳ we announce the winners To participate, leave a comment under this Idea, answering the two-part question: 1️⃣ What was your best trade this year? 2️⃣ What is your trading goal for 2025? And now follow these rules: 1️⃣ Like this Idea 2️⃣ Follow our official account Note: 💡 You can only participate once — three lucky winners will be picked randomly by the TradingView Santa to win a Premium plan for one year. Watch this space — announcing the winners on January 3 !
by TradingView
306
EUR/USD Break-and-Retest: Next Stop 0.97?Weekly Timeframe: Clear downtrend with a rejection at the 50 MA and a break below key support. Next target lies around 0.97-0.98, a major demand zone. Daily Timeframe: Confirms the bearish bias with a retest of the broken support, now acting as resistance. Price remains below the 50 MA, signaling continued downside. Correlation: Both timeframes align in a bearish trend. Weekly sets the direction, while daily refines entry opportunities with break-and-retest setups.
Short
by unichartz
18
1-Minute Scalping Trading Strategies With Examples1-Minute Scalping Trading Strategies With Examples Scalping is a popular trading style capitalising on rapid, small price movements within minutes. 1-minute scalping strategies are often used by traders but require precise execution and solid understanding of technical indicators. This article explores four 1-min scalping strategies, detailing the indicators used alongside specific entries and exits. Understanding 1-Minute Scalping 1-minute scalping is a fast-paced trading style focusing on taking advantage of small price movements within a minute timeframe. Traders using this approach rely on 1-minute charts to make quick, multiple trades throughout the trading session. The primary goal is to accumulate potential small gains that might add up to larger returns over time. A scalp trading strategy requires a solid understanding of technical analysis and market conditions. Scalpers typically use indicators, price action patterns, and trend analysis to identify short-term market movements and potential entry and exit points. The rapid nature of 1-minute scalping demands precision and discipline, as even a slight delay can impact the trade outcome. One of the key advantages of 1-minute scalping is the ability to generate frequent trading opportunities, which can be particularly appealing during volatile market conditions. However, it also comes with higher risks due to the speed and frequency of trades, meaning risk management plays a significant role. Scalpers must also be aware of transaction costs, as frequent trading can lead to significant fees, which can erode potential returns. Choosing a broker with low commissions, tight spreads, and fast execution speeds is essential to maximise a scalping forex strategy’s potential. FXOpen provides an ideal environment for scalping trading strategies, with commissions from $1.50 per lot, spreads from 0.0 pips, and ultra-fast execution. Open an account! Four 1-Minute Scalping Strategies Now, let’s take a closer look at four 1-minute trading strategies. To apply these strategies, see how they work in practice, and access each of these 1-minute scalping indicators, consider following along in FXOpen’s free TickTrader trading platform. Strategy 1: VWAP + MACD Indicators Used - VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): VWAP calculates the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price. It helps traders understand the trend and identify potential support and resistance levels. - MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD is an indicator that visualises the relationship between two moving averages. MACD settings for a 1-minute chart are standard: the MACD line is derived from the difference between the 12-period and 26-period exponential moving averages (EMA), while the signal line is a 9-period EMA of the MACD line. VWAP and MACD work well together by providing both trend and momentum analysis. VWAP helps identify the overall trend and significant price levels, while MACD offers insights into momentum changes. This combination can help traders determine entries by confirming trends and potential reversals. Entry - Traders typically look for the price to close through the VWAP, with the MACD turning from positive to negative or vice versa. This coincides with the signal line crossing over the MACD line. - Alternatively, another common entry point is when the price uses the VWAP as a level of support or resistance, confirmed by the MACD turning from positive to negative or vice versa. These triggers will likely occur within a few candles of each other, typically within 4 or 5 candles. Stop Loss - Stop losses are often set just beyond a recent high or low swing point, which helps potentially protect against losses if the market moves unexpectedly. Take Profit - Traders commonly take profits when the signal line crosses the MACD line in the opposite direction, and the histogram switches from positive to negative or vice versa. This approach allows traders to take advantage of momentum shifts and potentially lock in gains as the trend changes. - However, some may prefer to exit at a significant support or resistance level in order to maximise potential gains. Strategy 2: Keltner Channels + RSI Indicators Used - Keltner Channels: A volatility-based envelope set above and below an exponential moving average. The channels are typically set to two average true range (ATR) values away from the EMA. They help identify overbought and oversold conditions and potential breakouts. - RSI (Relative Strength Index): A momentum oscillator that gauges the rate and extent of price changes. It ranges between 0 and 100, where readings above 70 signal overbought conditions, and readings below 30 indicate oversold conditions. RSI can also indicate bullishness when it crosses above 50 and vice versa. The Keltner Channels and RSI strategy leverages volatility and momentum to identify effective trading opportunities. By combining the channels, which offer insights into breakouts, with the RSI, which gauges momentum, traders can uncover trading opportunities on the 1-minute chart. Entry - Traders often look for two or more closes outside of the Keltner Channel and ideally strong and/or consecutive green (bullish) or red (bearish) candles. - This is confirmed by the RSI recently breaking above 50 for bullish signals or below 50 for bearish signals. The combination of strong price action and momentum change helps traders identify potential trend continuations. Stop Loss - Stop losses are commonly set beyond the opposite side of the Keltner Channel to potentially protect against adverse price movements. - For a higher risk-reward ratio, traders might place stop losses beyond a nearby swing candle. Take Profit - Traders typically take profits when the price crosses back beyond the Keltner Channel's midpoint or reaches the opposite side of the channel, indicating a potential exhaustion of the current move. - Alternatively, profits may be taken when RSI moves beyond 70 (overbought) or below 30 (oversold), signalling potential reversals in price direction. Strategy 3: ALMA + Stochastic Indicators Used - ALMA (Arnaud Legoux Moving Average): ALMA is a moving average that aims to smooth price data while reducing lag. The settings used are 21 for the window size, 0.85 for the offset, and 6 for the sigma. This combination helps in identifying the trend with greater precision. - Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic measures the location of the close relative to the high-low range over a set period. Settings of 21, 1, 3 are used to capture momentum and potential reversal points. A figure above 80 signals overbought conditions, while below 20 indicates the opposite. Combining ALMA with the Stochastic Oscillator allows traders to identify potential reversals in trends. ALMA provides a smoothed view of the price trend, while the Stochastic Oscillator offers momentum-based signals, helping to confirm the strength of a move. Entry - Traders look for the price to close through the ALMA, ideally with a strong close, which suggests a potential trend change. - This is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator crossing below 80 for a bearish signal or above 20 for a bullish signal, indicating momentum alignment with the trend. Note that price may fluctuate above and below the ALMA in ranging conditions and produce false signals. Stop Loss - Stop losses are typically set beyond the nearest swing point, which helps to potentially protect against adverse price movements. Take Profit - Traders typically take profits when the Stochastic reaches the opposite territory (e.g., from above 80 to below 20 for a bearish move), indicating a potential exhaustion of the current trend. - Alternatively, profits may be taken at identified areas of support or resistance, where price action historically reacts, providing a logical exit point. Strategy 4: RSI + Bollinger Bands Indicators Used - RSI (Relative Strength Index): For this strategy, RSI setting for a 1-minute chart is a length of 4, with overbought and oversold boundaries at 80 and 20, respectively. These RSI settings for the 1-minute chart help in identifying short-term overbought and oversold conditions. - Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands settings for a 1-minute chart are a 20-period simple moving average (middle band) and two outer bands set at a standard deviation level of 2 from the middle band. They help identify periods of high and low volatility as well as potential reversal points. The combination of RSI and Bollinger Bands allows traders to identify potential short-term reversals in the market. The Bollinger Bands provide a dynamic range for price action, while the RSI helps confirm overbought or oversold conditions, improving the accuracy of entry and exit points. Entry - Traders often enter when the RSI crosses below 80 from above or above 20 from below, signalling an exit from potential overbought or oversold conditions. - This entry is confirmed when the price is also touching or breaching the Bollinger Band, indicating the likelihood of a short-term reversal. Stop Loss - Stop losses are typically set beyond a nearby swing point or just outside the Bollinger Band, providing potential protection against significant adverse price movements and giving the trade room to develop. Take Profit - Traders commonly take profits when the price touches the opposing Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential end to the current price move. - Alternatively, some may take profits when the RSI crosses into the opposing overbought or oversold territory, indicating a shift in momentum. The Bottom Line Mastering a 1-minute scalping strategy can potentially enhance your trading performance. To take advantage of these techniques, consider opening an FXOpen account. As a regulated broker, FXOpen offers access to over 600 markets for scalping, supported by commissions as low as $1.50 and spreads from 0.0 pips. With the right tools and strategies, you can navigate today’s fast-paced trading environment effectively. FAQ What Is the 1-Minute Timeframe Trading Strategy? The 1-minute timeframe trading strategy involves making multiple trades within a single minute, aiming to capture small price movements. Traders use a 1-min scalping strategy to identify quick trading opportunities and rely heavily on technical indicators for entry and exit points. Which Indicator Is Best for 1-Minute Scalping? There is no single best 1-minute scalping strategy indicator; it comes down to preference and experience. However, popular choices include the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands, and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP). Combining several indicators can potentially provide more reliable signals. What Is the Best Timeframe for Scalping Crypto*? The best timeframe for scalping crypto* depends on the trader's preference and strategy. While a 1-minute crypto* scalping strategy offers rapid trades and numerous opportunities, some traders prefer slightly longer frames like the 5-minute or 15-minute charts to balance speed and cryptocurrency* market noise. What Is the Stochastic Setting for 1-Minute Scalping? For 1-minute scalping, the Stochastic Oscillator is typically set to the standard settings of 14, 1, 3. These settings help capture short-term momentum changes, providing timely signals for entry and exit points. Adjustments can be made based on the trader's specific strategy and market conditions. *At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
8
EURUSD Ahead of FOMC and Its Possible ImpactEURUSD Ahead of FOMC and Its Possible Impact The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points at its final meeting of 2024. Remarks from Fed Chairman Powell and the updated dot plot are likely to offer crucial insights into the future direction of interest rates. As a result, the US Dollar's value could be significantly affected. Technical Analysis: The FOMC meeting is the biggest event this month. A dovish decision by the FOMC could push the price above the pattern. If EURUSD breaks through 1.0530, which appears to be a strong resistance zone, then the only direction should be up in the coming days, as shown in the chart. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Long
by KlejdiCuni
22
EURUSD 1HPrevious Analysis: View previous analysis The reaction to the 1.0422 level showed a bearish move, indicating that sellers remain active in the market. Current Scenario: Moving forward, the market is expected to approach the 1.0460 level, which will be the next target for bullish positions. Trading Plan: At 1.0460, I will assess potential sell opportunities to evaluate signs of a bearish reversal. Conclusion: For now, wait for the bullish target to be reached, and then analyze market behavior for further trades. (Further updates will follow as more data becomes available.)
Short
by GreyFX-NDS
7
EURUSD Strategic Outlook 2025: 0.9000 end of year target🔸It's time to update the EURUSD outlook, this is weekly price chart, downtrend is well defined since 2012 and we recently got a strong rejection after distribution 🔸Based on technical outlook, EURUSD is set to hit 0.95 by summer 2025 and end the year at 0.9000. I don't see any upside beyond 1.05 in 2025. 🔸The key reason for further decline in EURUSD: Strong DXY, strong political leadership and weak political leadership in EU / weak economy. Below there is a summary of why EU zone is set to decline further based on fundies. 🔸Slow Economic Growth: The Eurozone has faced relatively sluggish economic growth compared to other regions. Factors like low productivity growth, weak domestic demand, and a high dependency on exports to slower-growing markets (such as China) contribute to this. Slow growth impacts investor sentiment and reduces the demand for the Euro. 🔸Demographic Issues: The Eurozone is dealing with an aging population, particularly in countries like Germany, Italy, and Spain. This demographic shift results in a shrinking labor force and increasing pressure on social services and pension systems, which weakens economic growth potential. 🔸High Energy Prices and Inflation: The Eurozone has been significantly impacted by energy price fluctuations, particularly following the geopolitical tensions related to Russia and Ukraine. High energy costs put a strain on businesses and consumers, eroding purchasing power and dampening economic activity. Additionally, inflation remains a challenge in many Eurozone countries, complicating the ECB's ability to stimulate growth without triggering further inflation. 🔸Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing war in Ukraine, energy disruptions, and broader geopolitical risks have hurt European economies more severely than other regions. The Eurozone's reliance on Russian energy made it especially vulnerable to supply shocks, and the economic sanctions against Russia created ripple effects that continue to affect the region. 🔸Structural Issues in the Eurozone: The Eurozone faces structural challenges such as uneven economic conditions between member states, fiscal constraints (due to the Eurozone's common monetary policy), and a lack of fiscal unity. While Germany and France may have relatively strong economies, countries like Italy and Greece still struggle with high debt levels and low growth, which can drag down overall Eurozone performance. 🔸Tight Fiscal Policies: The EU's fiscal rules restrict how much debt individual member states can take on, which limits governments' ability to use fiscal stimulus to respond to crises. This can exacerbate economic stagnation and prevent the region from achieving sustainable growth. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Short
by ProjectSyndicate
13
Euro can fall to buyer zone and then rebound upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see how the price a few moments ago broke the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone and started to grow inside the upward channel. In this channel, the price grew to the resistance line, after which turned around and started to decline in a downward channel, exiting from the upward channel. In this channel, the Euro declined to the seller zone, where it soon broke the 1.0485 level and fell to the support line, but soon turned around and backed up. Next, the price some time traded near the resistance level and later rebounded and made a strong impulse down, breaking the 1.0390 support level, which coincided with the buyer zone, thereby exiting from the downward channel as well. Later Euro turned around and started to grow and some time later reached the 1.0390 level, broke it, and continued to move up. But a not long time ago, the price started to decline, so, for this case, I think that the price can decline to the buyer zone. AFter this movement, Euro will turn around and start to move up to the resistance level from the buyer zone. Therefore I set my TP at 1.0485 level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
6
Lingrid | EURUSD Bearish Momentum Persists. ShortFX:EURUSD dropped after the news was released and is now pulling back toward the resistance zone. The price is slowing down and forming rejection candles, indicating a potential reversal at this resistance zone. On the 1H chart, the price is showing an ABCD pullback pattern. Given the bearish sentiment, I believe the market might continue to move downward. I expect a pullback to the resistance zone around 1.04300 before the bearish trend resumes. My goal is support zone around 1.03260 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Short
by Lingrid
8
EUR/USD long: Thank you first buddy!Yup, the heading of this idea is very much tongue in cheek. The Euro is fundamentally on the backfoot, especially after the confusing FOMC "we are slowing down while walking into this dark room" rate cut. WTH??? No need to cut because the Labor market is A OK, but we are cutting anyway because inflation may increase again. Call me dumb but I replayed that Press Conference over and over again. My take away: The FOMC is very aware of the impact after January 20 2024. The former guy is back and this time around he is bringing his new best friend along for the ride. Well, we all know how these bromances work out in his world. They don't last but up until then, they are already starting to cause chaos as they go along. Democrats and some Republicans have been raising the alarm about our democracy being under attack for some time now. There you have it. The second generation American and the Naturalized immigrant citizen are now running our beloved United States. The first mentioned not even in office yet and the other one not an elected official. But they bad mouth immigrants like these people are the spawn of the devil, conveniently forgetting their own roots. Between the two of them the have the money and social media resources to tank the current spending bill negotiations and they did so with glee. I am certainly not anti immigration because immigrants are still the backbone of our economy. Why do you think is the Labor market so strong? Because a significant percentage of the reported 10 million plus recent immigrants are willing to work in slaughter houses, scrub floors, pick oranges for the Mar-A-Lago guests' freshly squeezed juice, clean Wall Street offices at 2 AM and so on. I am also not anti cutting unnecessary Government spending but this is not Twitter. The individuals who will be affected won't be Musk and his numerous children or Trump living in luxury in Mar-A-Lago. It will be our Military Troops, the same people who defend us and sacrifice their lives for our country and quite frankly the International Order who will not have a pay check next week. And they do not plead bone spurs to avoid duty to their country... Our TSA agents and air traffic controllers who will have to work with deferred pay to get us to our Holiday destinations to be with family. In case, dear colleagues, you have not noticed: I AM FURIOUS at the current state of affairs and incomprehensible hypocrisy and blatant cronyism in this country. Musk stands to gain more than anyone else from this cozy relationship. Space X Federal contacts, removing self driving regulations, stopping numerous active investigations into his businesses, boosting his crypto investments etc. If you, dear reader, is a fan-boy/girl, have at it. I do not put my money in the hands or pockets of people like these two. Technically, the chart should explain my reasoning. So far, the recent low has been respected. Some indicators are turning up. We also have USD PCE on tap tomorrow. And investors DO NOT like uncertainty like the potential Government shutdown by tomorrow night. There is also a break down level that has to be revisited per the resistance zone on the chart. This is not a change in trend but merely a technical correction if it plays out. BTW, I am also short AUD/JPY as a technical correction. My long EUR/USD from the lows and short from the 1.0420 level have played out profitably. And I am long EUR/USD again. Finally, Happy Holidays and have a rocking 2025 trading around and through the guaranteed chaos.
Long
by jvrfxalerts
9
HelenP. I Euro can reach resistance level and then continue fallHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. If we look at the chart we can see how the price reached the trend line, making a first gap as well and then starting to decline. EUR dropped to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone and soon broke resistance 2. Then it started to trades inside consolidation, where it declined to resistance 1, which coincided with the bottom part of the range with the support zone. After this movement, the EUR rebounded up, making a second gap, and later almost reached the trend line. Then the price little declined and later rebounded up to resistance 2, breaking the trend line, after which it turned around and started to decline. In a short time, Ethe uro declined to resistance 1, broke it, thereby exiting from consolidation, and then fell to the trend line. A not long time ago, the price bounced and started to grow. So, I expect that EURUSD will reach a resistance level and then continue to decline next. For this case, I set my goal at 1.0270 points, which coincided with the trend line. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Short
by FirstNameHelen
4
EURUSD Analysis==>>Pumping Soon!?EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is currently moving near the Heavy Support zone($1.040-$1.022) , Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , and an Important Support line . According to Elliott's wave theory , EURUSD is completing microwave 5 of the main wave 5 , so we should expect bullish waves soon . Also, Regular Divergence (RD+) between Consecutive Valleys . I expect EURUSD to rise to at least $1.049 AFTER the Downtrend line is broken , and if the Resistance zone($1.040-$1.022) is broken, we have to wait for further increases . ⚠️Note: If EURUSD breaks the Important Support line, we can also expect the break of the Heavy Support zone($1.040-$1.022).⚠️ Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour Time frame ⏰. 🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔 Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
4
Can the U.S. Dollar Overtake the Euro? Will EUR/USD Fall Below 1The EUR/USD pair has been hovering near a critical psychological level of 1.0000, sparking debates among traders about whether the U.S. dollar's strength could push the euro below parity. Current market dynamics suggest that a break below this level is plausible, with a potential target of 0.9889. Historical Context: Why Did EUR/USD Fall Below 1.00 in September 2022? The last time EUR/USD fell below parity was in September 2022, driven by several key factors: Aggressive Federal Reserve Rate Hikes: The Federal Reserve was highly hawkish in 2022, implementing aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation. This strengthened the U.S. dollar significantly against other currencies, including the euro. Eurozone Energy Crisis: The Eurozone faced an energy crisis due to reduced natural gas supplies following geopolitical tensions with Russia. This created economic uncertainty, weakening the euro. Recession Fears in Europe: Concerns about a potential recession in the Eurozone further pressured the euro, as investors shifted their focus to the relative safety of the U.S. dollar. ------------------------------------ Key Technical Levels: Resistance at 1.0090: The pair is currently facing strong resistance at 1.0090, where sellers have consistently stepped in to cap bullish attempts. This level aligns with a key supply zone, suggesting heavy sell-side liquidity. Support at 1.0000: The psychological level of 1.0000 acts as a critical support zone. A break below this level could lead to accelerated selling pressure. Next Target: 0.9889: If the support at 1.0000 is breached, the pair could decline toward 0.9889, marking the next major support level from the previous price action. ------------------------------------ Factors Driving the Dollar’s Strength Today: U.S. Economic Resilience: ]Strong economic data from the U.S., such as better-than-expected GDP growth and employment numbers, continues to support the dollar’s strength. Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance: The Federal Reserve’s commitment to keeping interest rates high to combat inflation has been a major driver of USD appreciation. Eurozone Weakness: On the other hand, weaker economic performance in the Eurozone, coupled with uncertainty around energy markets, has kept the euro under pressure.
Short
by melikatrader94
3
Fed Rate Expectations: How Are They Formed?Changes in the Federal Reserve's funds rate have far-reaching implications for nearly all existing assets. When the rate increases amidst moderate inflation, the U.S. dollar TVC:DXY typically strengthens, attracting capital from both the cryptocurrency and stock markets. Conversely, if inflation is rising rapidly and the Fed is compelled to aggressively raise rates to stabilize the economy, investors often interpret this as a sign of underlying trouble, prompting them to shift their assets into TVC:GOLD . However, it is essential to recognize that the Fed’s decisions are reactions to prevailing economic conditions. More crucially, market expectations regarding the Fed's rate movements—shaped by collective sentiment—play a significant role in shaping economic outcomes. This post explores the factors that form these expectations. 📍 Key Indicators Influencing Expectations for the Fed Funds Rate The market tends to respond significantly only when actual changes in the funds rate diverge from expectations. If adjustments align with market forecasts, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar typically remains stable. Thus, accurately predicting the Fed's actions is vital for investors and traders. 1. Labor Market Dynamics The labor market is a primary focus for the Fed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases employment reports every Friday, providing insight into unemployment rates. The Fed maintains a forecast range for acceptable unemployment levels—generally between 4.2% and 4.8%—indicating economic balance. An uptick in unemployment signals economic weakness, often prompting a reduction in the funds rate. Conversely, a decline in unemployment raises concerns about potential economic overheating, which could lead to tighter monetary policy. 2. Inflation Trends The Fed’s target inflation rate is set at 2%. As inflation rises, the Fed typically increases the funds rate to curb borrowing. This was clearly illustrated during the 2022-2023 period, where persistent inflation above 8% led to a series of rate hikes. In contrast, deflation would necessitate maintaining ultra-low funds rates. Additional indicators to monitor include wage trends, inflation expectations, and the consumer price index (CPI). 3. Overall Economic Health Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic health. Although GDP data is often retrospective, it reflects long-term economic trends. A decline in GDP may prompt the Fed to adopt stimulative monetary policies. Analysts often utilize the GDPNow model, developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, to obtain real-time estimates of U.S. GDP growth. 4. Treasury Yield Curve The yield curve illustrates the relationship between bond yields of different maturities from the same issuer. A flattening yield curve typically signals economic slowdown, while long-term bonds yielding less than short-term bonds can foreshadow a recession. The Fed could respond to such signs by adjusting funds rates higher depending on the crisis’s underlying causes. 5. Global Economic Influences Economic conditions in other major economies, particularly China and the European Union, can indirectly impact the U.S. economy due to deep economic ties. Monitoring central bank funds rates and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in these regions is essential. 6. The Dollar’s Exchange Rate Against Key Currencies A strong U.S. dollar can adversely affect American exporters. If other central banks, such as the Bank of Japan or the European Central Bank, adopt accommodative monetary policies, the Fed may also consider lowering rates to avoid a detrimental trade balance caused by a strengthening dollar. 7. Market Expectations Investor sentiment creates a feedback loop. With over 50% of Americans investing in equities, a hawkish stance on funds rates tends to increase bond yields and instigate a sell-off in securities, negatively impacting overall economic wealth. Investors’ anticipation of potential rate cuts can pressure the Fed to align with these expectations. 8. Communication from Fed Officials The rhetoric from Fed officials often hints at future monetary policy, providing insights into rate expectations based on their communications. Numerous indicators, including analysts’ forecasts and futures trading on key rates, contribute to understanding the Fed's policies. Due to the complexity of these influencing factors, relying solely on fundamental analysis for trading is not advisable for beginners. 📍 Conclusion Forecasting changes in the Fed's funds rate often begins with the first clear signals about the Fed's potential actions. The primary motivations guiding the Fed are the control of inflation and the management of unemployment—making these two indicators crucial for predictions regarding monetary policy. Additionally, it is essential to consider fundamental factors impacting other major currencies. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
3
EUR/USD Fundamental AnalysisOur Preferance EUR/USD is under bearish pressure due to dollar strength driven by hawkish Fed expectations and slowing Eurozone growth. Entry: Near resistance, aligning with technical rejection. SL: Above the recent high to limit risk. TP1 & TP2: Targeting key support levels, considering weaker EUR fundamentals. Note: This analysis is for educational purposes and not trading advice. Consider market conditions and strategies. Please do not forget the like button, Share it with your friends,thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by David_Josh_Trader
2
EUR/USD Analysis – December 19, 2024EUR/USD Analysis – December 19, 2024 Overview: Today, let’s focus on EUR/USD. The price recently retested its demand zone at 1.03611, where it experienced a strong rejection from the downside. Following this, the price has begun to climb upward, indicating a potential bullish move. Trade Idea: Potential Long Entry: Around 1.03611, where the demand zone lies. Target: The price could rise to 1.04628, which corresponds to the previous supply zone. Risk Management: Use a proper risk-to-reward ratio to manage your trade. Ensure there is clear confirmation (e.g., bullish momentum, strong candles, or other signals) before entering a position. Important Notes: Do Your Own Analysis: While this setup suggests a potential upward move, don’t follow it blindly. Always analyze the market conditions yourself before taking a trade. Risk Awareness: Protecting your capital is more important than making quick profits. Avoid impulsive trading and use stop-loss orders to mitigate risk. Trading Is Reactive, Not Predictive: Respond to what the price action shows you rather than forcing trades based on expectations.
Long
by KainT21
7
Lingrid | EURUSD Capitalizing on TREND ContinuationFX:EURUSD has pulled back after a strong move down, testing the resistance and downward trendline around 1.04500. Overall, the price action is clearly bearish, making lower lows. However, it recently formed equal lows at a previous support level, which could indicate that the price might struggle to make new lows at this levels. We may see the price create a triangle pattern just above the support before continuing bearish movement. Given that the weekly candle is bearish, it makes sense to expect the price to continue moving lower below the previous month low at 1.03315. My goal is support zone around 1.03450 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Short
by Lingrid
4
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Short to Support area 1.02539.Dear Colleagues, due to the recent sharp price movement, I have redrawn the waves and now I see the completion of the five-wave impulse in the wave “5” of higher order. I expect that the price should update the nearest local minimum of the wave “3” 1.03350. I expect the price to reach at least the area of 1.02539. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Short
by Hellena_Trade
3
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the pullback support. Pivot: 1.0464 1st Support: 1.0333 1st Resistance: 1.0600 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
1