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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR/USD Hits Key Supply Zone! Pullback Loading?The bulls just slammed into a strong intraday supply zone (1.1415 – 1.1422), with signs of exhaustion showing near the highs. Liquidity sweep completed — are we set for a reversal? 🔵 Volume Profile shows a high-volume rejection. 📉 Previous aggressive drop from this zone adds confluence. 🔔 Multiple red news events ahead — brace for spikes and volatility. --- 🧠 Smart Money Insight This price action fits the liquidity grab + reversal pattern we’ve seen often during news-heavy weeks. Institutions may be unloading longs here — setting up for a quick 1.1323 or 1.1227 test. --- 📌 Key Levels to Watch 🔵 Supply Zone (Short-Term): 1.1415 – 1.1422 (Already reacting) 🟦 Mid Support: 1.1323 → Former resistance flip 🟫 Demand Zone (Buy Area): 1.1227 → Deep value zone if bearish move continues --- 🧪 Trade Setup Ideas > Scalp Short Setup 📍 Entry: 1.1415 – 1.1422 🎯 TP1: 1.1323 🎯 TP2: 1.1227 ❌ SL: 1.1435 > Aggressive Buy Plan (if price drops fast) 📍 Entry: 1.1230 – 1.1250 🎯 TP: 1.1320 – 1.1350 ❌ SL: 1.1205 --- 📰 Event Watch 📌 EUR & USD have back-to-back high-impact events over the next 48 hours. Expect rapid moves — stay nimble or wait for confirmation candles.
Short
by FrankFx14
EURO/USD a projected bullish breakout.🧠 Chart Structure Overview Pair: EUR/USD Timeframe: 4-hour (4H) Platform: TradingView Indicators: SMART D S 250 6 2.6 (likely a custom or proprietary indicator) Date Range: March to early June Chart Type: Candlestick --- 🧾 Key Technical Elements 🔴 Support Zone Marked in Red: A clear demand zone between 1.07002 and 1.08499, showing historical buying interest. This is a high-probability reversal zone where price previously bounced, reinforcing the zone's strength. 🟢 Trendline Support A dynamic upward sloping trendline intersects near current price action, adding confluence to the potential bounce area. 🟨 FVG (Fair Value Gap) A yellow rectangle labeled "FVG" suggests an imbalance in price, where the market moved too quickly, leaving unfilled orders. Often, price retraces to these zones before continuing the trend — a key liquidity magnet for smart money traders. --- 📈 Projected Price Movement (Trade Idea) ✔️ Bullish Bias The chart suggests a bullish continuation setup, with price expected to: 1. Retest the ascending trendline and support zone. 2. Possibly dip into the FVG area. 3. Form a higher low. 4. Resume upward momentum targeting the green zone above. 🟩 Target Zone Marked in green, the target zone ranges from around 1.14700 to 1.16750. This is likely a take-profit zone, corresponding to prior structure highs or supply zones. 🟥 Stop-Loss Zone Located just below the support area, likely in the 1.09800 - 1.07000 range, providing a tight risk-to-reward ratio. --- ⚙️ Risk/Reward Setup The green and red rectangles represent a classic risk-reward trade box: Risk: Below the trendline and support. Reward: Above the current range high, with a projected bullish breakout. --- 🧠 Final Thoughts This chart reflects a smart money concept-based approach, combining: Market structure Liquidity zones (FVG) Support/resistance and trendlines Risk-reward planning It implies a well-defined long (buy) trade plan with technical confluences supporting bullish continuation — ideal for swing traders or intra-week position traders.
Long
by Johnson67
EUR/USD Bulls Fail to Press 1.1500 - Builds Possible Lower-HighFor EUR/USD it's what didn't happen this week... Despite a seemingly open door for bulls to run a breakout, helped along by a Christine Lagarde that sounded less dovish than usual at Friday's rate cut, the pair put in a hard charge towards the 1.1500 handle but interestingly fell just about 5 pips short of the big figure. That's the same price that helped to bring a pullback back in April but in that instance, bulls were able to force a test above - and this time, it's as if sellers were waiting at the ready - and unwilling to miss the shot to get short. This can be read as bearish anticipation and while it's not an automatic indication of reversal, it can be an attractive first step towards that. So far there remains bullish potential on the daily chart as the past week has produced both a higher-low and a higher-high. But from the four hour, deeper pullback potential appears as a breach of the 1.1400 level shows a shorter-term lower-low. And that, combined with the failure to test 1.1500, makes EUR/USD an attractive venue if looking for USD-strength. And if looking for USD-weakness it seems that there are more attractive options out there, such as GBP/USD which did set a fresh three-year-high this week even as EUR/USD held at a lower-high. - js
by FOREXcom
EURUSD Wave Analysis – 6 June 2025 - EURUSD reversed from the resistance zone - Likely to fall to support level 1.1350 EURUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone located between the key resistance level 1.1475 (which has been reversing the price from the start of April) and the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star, Given the overbought daily Stochastic, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.1350.
Short
by FxProGlobal
Elliott wave daily EURUSD update Elliott wave daily EURUSD update The price movement of the last few weeks requires a change and update of the wave count ______________________________________ upward movement from area 1.018/genuary 2025 to area 1.1580/april 2025 looks impulsive - minute wave ((i)). we are now in a corrective minute wave ((ii)) zigzag or flat or any double target area 1.1040/1.0800 area in the very short term level to monitor 1.1500 area over 1.1500 area a flat correction more likely ( to area 1.1570) note FX option expiries for 6 June 10am New York cut 1.1500 (EUR 3.19bn) 1.1400 (EUR 2.38bn) 1.1300 (EUR 1.28bn) FOREXLIVE
by francescoforex
EUR/USD: Options signal more downside for the dollarIon Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst After a difficult start of the year for the greenback, the US dollar seems to have slowed its decline... but not for long, if we look at options market activity. Traders are still aggressively bearish, especially against the euro and the yen. According to LSEG data, more than 59% of FX options volume on CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) is in dollar put contracts, reflecting a clear expectation of further depreciation. This pressure is particularly concentrated in EUR/USD, where flows are pointing to a euro rally driven by the expectation of more aggressive rate cuts in the US than in Europe. Since the beginning of the year, EUR/USD has swung wildly, influenced by rate differentials, macroeconomic data and the Fed's dovish turn. Although the ECB is also poised to cut rates, the market seems to be discounting a deeper and faster cycle in the US, which is weakening the dollar in the medium term. Technical Analysis Technically, if the pair manages to consolidate above 1.13366 we could see an advance to the nearby 1.14896 resistance. If this resistance is pierced we could contemplate a free upside move towards 1.18853. If these upside predictions are not fulfilled the pair should look for the mid-range checkpoint at 1.09223, if this area fails to hold we would see a drop to the lower end of the range at 1.053227. The mid-range crosses signal a clear uptrend and the RSI supports the idea of an overbought advance at the current 58.42%. In short, the options market leaves no room for doubt: investors have not yet closed the bearish chapter for the dollar, and the euro could be one of the major beneficiaries if the selling pressure continues. "******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades
EUR/USD: Options signal more downside for the dollarIon Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst After a difficult start of the year for the greenback, the US dollar seems to have slowed its decline... but not for long, if we look at options market activity. Traders are still aggressively bearish, especially against the euro and the yen. According to LSEG data, more than 59% of FX options volume on CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) is in dollar put contracts, reflecting a clear expectation of further depreciation. This pressure is particularly concentrated in EUR/USD, where flows are pointing to a euro rally driven by the expectation of more aggressive rate cuts in the US than in Europe. Since the beginning of the year, EUR/USD has swung wildly, influenced by rate differentials, macroeconomic data and the Fed's dovish turn. Although the ECB is also poised to cut rates, the market seems to be discounting a deeper and faster cycle in the US, which is weakening the dollar in the medium term. Technical Analysis Technically, if the pair manages to consolidate above 1.13366 we could see an advance to the nearby 1.14896 resistance. If this resistance is pierced we could contemplate a free upside move towards 1.18853. If these upside predictions are not fulfilled the pair should look for the mid-range checkpoint at 1.09223, if this area fails to hold we would see a drop to the lower end of the range at 1.053227. The mid-range crosses signal a clear uptrend and the RSI supports the idea of an overbought advance at the current 58.42%. In short, the options market leaves no room for doubt: investors have not yet closed the bearish chapter for the dollar, and the euro could be one of the major beneficiaries if the selling pressure continues. On the other hand, the CFD derivatives market signals a possible price increase. Which data to believe? We will have to be attentive to both situations. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades
EURUSD – Tuesday, June 3rd, 2025🔹 Overview: EURUSD has now broken above 1.14149, confirming the next bullish leg. The daily chart shows clear momentum with a possibility of a clean retest before continuation. 🔹 Current Structure: Daily bullish breakout confirmed Previous high at 1.14149 now flips to potential support Bullish channel forming with room to expand toward next resistance 🔹 Key Levels: ✅ Safe Buys: 1.14149 (already triggered) 🔁 Retest Zone: 1.14149 🔓 Safest Buys: Break above 1.16020 🎯 Main Target: 1.18791 📌 Plan: Retest of 1.14149 = re-entry opportunity Momentum-based buys above 1.16020 toward 1.18791 Maintain bullish bias unless 1.14149 fails 🔸 Bias: Bullish 🔸 Outlook: Medium-to-long-term continuation
Long
by Thetraderscollective
Most Traders Want Certainty. The Best Ones Want Probability.Hard truth: You’re trying to trade like an engineer in a casino. You want certainty in an environment that only rewards probabilistic thinking. Here’s how that kills your edge: You wait for “confirmation” — and enter too late. By the time it feels safe, the market has moved. You fear losses — but they’re the cost of data. Good traders don’t fear being wrong. They fear not knowing why. You need to think in bets, not absolutes. Outcomes don’t equal decisions. Losing on a great setup is still a good trade. 🎯 Fix it with better framing. That’s exactly what we designed TrendGo f or — to help you see trend strength and structure without delusions of certainty. Not perfect calls. Just cleaner probabilities. 🔍 Train your brain for the game you’re playing — or you’ll keep losing by default.
Education
by TrendGo_Official
EURUSD | Bearish Divergence | Bearish MomentumCurrently, EURUSD is clearly in a downtrend, consistently forming lower lows and lower highs, confirming a bearish market structure. According to Dow Theory, the recent bullish momentum has now shifted into a confirmed downtrend. Additionally, the 1-hour trendline support has been broken, signaling weakness in the previous bullish leg. We now anticipate a pullback toward the recently broken structure or resistance zone, where further bearish continuation is likely. On the 1-hour timeframe, a well-formed bearish divergence on the RSI adds confluence to our bias, indicating weakening bullish momentum and a potential trend continuation to the downside. Since our initial entry was slightly late, we’ve strategically placed a limit order near the retest zone and executed a partial position at the current market price to secure early exposure. Overall, structure and momentum both align with short-term bearish sentiment.
Short
by awaisulabdeen
EURUSD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend. 🎯 Non Commercials closed longs and added shorts.It still seems to me like EUR dropping lower but it will have to take liquidity levels above. 📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. 💊 Tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
by David_Perk
30
EUR/USD Weekly Analysis – Key Price Action Zones & ForecastWelcome back to the long-term EUR/USD roadmap, where we're not just looking at the next move, but building a vision for the next decade. 📉 What's Happening Now? The market is currently battling between two major macro zones: Strong Resistance at 1.22 – This is where bulls face their ultimate test. If price breaks through this zone, we could be looking at a sustained bullish trend, with 1.24 and beyond in sight. First Strong Support at 1.08 – A level that has held in past market corrections, and a key buy signal if we see price rejection with strong confirmation. Second Support at 1.0176 – If the first level fails, this is where the ultimate buying opportunity lies. Think long-term here. The price tends to rebound sharply from this level. 🎯 The Educational Breakdown: Here’s how you can approach the price action using the concept of 'range trading' vs 'breakout trading': 1. Bullish Scenario: Condition to Watch: A breakout above 1.22 would set the stage for the next leg up, with 1.24 as the initial target. This is a high-probability bullish setup. Keep an eye on strong confirmation candles around this resistance, like a bullish engulfing or a close above the level. 2. Bearish Scenario: Condition to Watch: If price fails to break and retests the support zones, we could see a retracement back down. The first target should be 1.08, but if that level breaks, we’re looking at the 1.0176 support zone, which historically holds. 3. Major Support Opportunities (Unbeatable Long-term Buy): The 1.06 to 0.97 zone is your "unbeatable first touch support". Price tends to reject hard from this range, offering high-reward long opportunities for those who can time the entry correctly with strong confirmation. 🔥 The Big Picture This is not just about trading the next week. This is about building a macro trading model that looks at multiple years of price action. Understanding where the big money plays in terms of support and resistance gives you the advantage to position ahead of the market. 🧠 Key Takeaways for Traders: Be patient with major support zones – This is where price reversals often occur. If you're playing the breakout, wait for confirmation candles above 1.22 for sustained momentum. Use multi-timeframe analysis to confirm key levels – Don’t just rely on the weekly chart; lower timeframes (like daily and 4-hour) can provide entry confirmation. 📈 What’s Next? As we continue through 2025 and beyond, these key zones will play a crucial role in determining EUR/USD's long-term trajectory. Whether you're trading short-term moves or building a macro position, mastering these zones will set you apart from the crowd. "The best traders are those who anticipate the big moves, not just react to them." – TradeWithMky 🔔 Follow for more macro insights and exclusive trading strategies. 📈 @TradeWithMky – where the charts talk louder than the noise.
by TradeWithMky
EUR/USD - BUY BUY BUY!Here in my personal Opinion I can see a few potential reasons to buy with high confidence. Firstly- Weekly timeframe is showing a Bullish movement with us closing last week with a strong volume candle. Secondly- On the Daily time frame we can see this is a high possibility of a 5th leg of elliots wave to finish this Bullish run. Thirdly- The Daily has pushed out of the 71% level from the first demand zone. Following this on the 4H Time frame we can notice this previous push has also giving a strong Liqudity Grab into the new 71% level telling me Buyers are still highly in control. I will be looking to trade into Buy side Liquidity after this Volume gap has been filled Follow along for more updates
Long
by jamesibartram
Lingrid | EURUSD long Entry Opportunity from Support ZoneThe price perfectly fulfilled my previous idea . FX:EURUSD is pushing higher after breaking through the downward trendline and forming a higher low. Price is currently hovering above the key 1.1320 swap zone and could use this level as support for a bullish continuation. A bounce from this region would open the path toward the 1.1500 resistance inside the upper part of the bullish channel. However, failure to hold 1.1320 may trigger a deeper pullback into the rising trendline. 📈 Key Levels Buy zone: 1.1300 – 1.1320 Buy trigger: bullish bounce from 1.1320 Target: 1.1500 Sell trigger: break below 1.1300 💡 Risks Weak Eurozone data could derail bullish setup USD strength on Fed hawkishness may stall recovery Trendline break would signal bearish reversal structure Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Long
by Lingrid
6