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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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USDEUX trade ideas

Clear Sign for short-tradeThe price chart has clearly established a robust resistance level, showing no signs of breaking through again. As a result, the price is likely to breach the first trendline in the near term, entering an accumulation phase. During this phase, the price is expected to consolidate for some time before eventually breaking the second trendline. This breakout will likely trigger a downward movement, potentially driving the price toward the 1.013 level by mid-March.
Short
by rahamb
Time the Markets Like W.D. Gann Using Planetary & Lunar Cycles! Unlock the Secrets of W.D. Gann’s Trading Method! Is it possible to predict market movements using astrological cycles, planetary longitudes, and time-price harmonics? In this in-depth video, we explore how W.D. Gann’s trading strategies used the Square of 9, time cycles, and astro cycles to anticipate market highs and lows with incredible accuracy. Gann believed that “time and price are equal”, meaning that markets move in predictable mathematical and astrological cycles rather than randomly. We’ll show real examples from Soybeans, Tesla, and Amazon, demonstrating how Gann’s time cycles trading strategy can be applied to today’s financial markets. What You’ll Learn in This Video: ✔ Gann Square of 9 & Price-Time Convergence – How market prices align with planetary degrees ✔ Astro Trading Strategy – Using planetary longitudes, planetary aspects, and alignments for trade timing ✔ Gann’s Time Cycles Trading Strategy – Identifying reversal dates using time and price calculations ✔ Gann Cosmogram Strategy – How to use the cosmogram for timing major market moves ✔ Price & Longitude Equivalence – Understanding why certain prices act as natural support/resistance ✔ Astro Time Cycles & Harmonics – Discovering how planetary angles influence market trends ✔ Gann's Square of 144 & Other Geometric Forecasting Tools – Using squares and angles for market predictions ✔ The Role of Numerology in Gann Trading – How numbers relate to market movements ✔ How to Apply Gann’s Techniques in Forex, Stocks & Commodities Why This Video Is Important for Traders: - Learn how to predict market reversals instead of reacting to them. - Gain insights into historical price movements and time cycles. - Improve your technical analysis skills with Gann's mathematical and astrological approach. - Understand why markets reverse at specific dates and price levels. - Apply astro trading strategies and planetary cycles to your trades for better accuracy. This is one of the most detailed explanations of Gann’s astro-trading methods, so make sure to watch until the end! Whether you're a Gann enthusiast, forex trader, stock market investor, or commodities trader, this video will give you actionable insights into how to use Gann’s techniques for trading success.
by GannAstroTrader
EUR/USD keeps rolling after ECB rate cutThe euro has posted strong gains on Friday after taking a pause a day earlier.  EUR/USD is trading at 1.0858 in the European session, up 0.69% on the day.  It's been a remarkable week for the euro, which has soared 4.7% against the US dollar. The ECB lowered rates by 25 basis points on Thursday in a widely-expected decision.  This brings the deposit rate to 2.5%, its lowest level since Dec. 2022.  The central bank has been aggressive in its easing cycle, slashing rates by 185 basis points in just nine months. The rate reduction was no surprise and is being described as the "last easy cut".  Inflation is running at a 2.4% clip, above the ECB's 2% target but low enough to deliver rate hikes in order to boost the flagging economy. What's next for the ECB is a tricky question, especially with economic and political developments moving at a dizzying pace. First, the new Trump administration hasn't wasted any time in imposing (and in some cases, suspending) tariffs, which has chilled investor sentiment and sent equity markets tumbling. The US hasn't applied tariffs to the European Union although it has threatened to do so.  The EU would surely retaliate and a trade war between the two giant economies will damage growth and raise inflation in the eurozone. Second, Trump is showing growing impatience with Ukraine and has suspended military aid. Germany has responded by easing its fiscal spending rules and has proposed a massive spending scheme for defense and infrastructure. This has sent German bond yields and the euro soaring. ECB President Lagarde said after the ECB meeting that the situation was changing "dramatically" by the day and the ECB would need to be "extremely vigilant" and "agile". She reiterated that future rate decisions would be based on the data. The US wraps up the week with the February employment report. Nonfarm payrolls sank to 143 thousand in January from 256 thousand a month earlier.  The market estimate for February stands at 160 thousand. A surprise in either direction from nonfarm payrolls would likely have a significant impact on the direction of the US dollar. EUR/USD has pushed above resistance at 1.0801 and 1.0837 and is putting pressure on resistance at 1.0889.  Above, there is resistance at 1.0925 1.0749 and 1.0713 are the next support lines
by OANDA
Euro Surges Above $1.08 on ECB Rate CutThe euro rose above $1.08, hitting a four-month high after the ECB’s expected 25bps rate cut. The central bank signaled a less restrictive stance but hinted at a pause in further cuts, shifting its rhetoric away from "restrictive policy." Markets now anticipate one or two more 25bps cuts this year. The euro also gained support from expectations of increased government spending. EU leaders are meeting for a special defense session, where Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed an €800 billion plan, including €150 billion in loans, to strengthen defense capabilities despite budget constraints. Key resistance is at 1.0840, followed by 1.0900 and 1.0950. Support stands at 1.0730, with further levels at 1.0700 and 1.0650.
by ChartMage
Will we see parity again?The U.S. dollar will tighten its stranglehold over global currency markets with little standing in the way of its remarkable run, and a significant number of foreign exchange forecasters polled by Reuters expect it to rise to parity with the euro in 2025. The greenback (.DXY), opens new tab surged over 7% against a basket of major currencies last year, falling just shy of an 8% gain in 2022 - a seven-year high - and driving the euro to the brink of dollar-parity and an over two-year low of $1.02 on Jan. 2. The euro has been dragged lower by fears that the bloc's export-orientated economies will be hit by US trade tariffs and expectations the European Central Bank will cut interest rates more aggressively than the Federal Reserve. Technically, I think we might have still pending wave C, to complete ABC of wave Y.
by TRADINGACPVIP
EURUSD short until TP 1.0250 = see my reasons !Hello guys, In the last few months I studied more the currencies in order to make more precise predictions about buying or selling. This time, we have a SELL signal. My reasons : - daily chart : upward band of Bollinger touched twice already and rejected - 4 hour chart : there is a resistence area there should reject also this time So, the quote should go on SELL until quote 1.0250 which is a possible support area and a psychological level as well. See the attachements. /url] What do you think ?
Short
by 10yearsfxexpert
EURUSD March 3 Macro 2EURUSD March 3 London Macro 2 Price was in a Discount in Asia. Price consolidated to take liquidity. On the 5 min the signature 2022 ICT model formed. Criteria -take session liquidity -form a four candle formation energetically -creates a FVG -Price comes up to test the FVG and drops -inside the macro at 23:10 All above is a 2022 model set up I was not at my computer would have signalled a set up and entry during that macro. Why because I saw DXY take 2 sets of equal lows, with the FVG to the high side and knowing price will at least come to the range box 50 level. I did enter at 2:10 lower than I wanted based on my analysis of DXY reaching for the 50 and potentially coming into the range created in the dealing range. It was a scalp trade. I note my error that the previous session range for EUR in Asia price did not want to expand through the 50. Dropped the fake out. Where is now showing its wanting to go it the previous session 50 and FVG. With both DXY and EUR on the 50 on HTF leaving me read the tape todays analysis at 2 was correct. What did I learn TAKE PARTIALS when your level is hit. I suspected it would come to the CE-50 of the range level. In hind sight once price hit the CE of the range, the .79 and coming into the Macro and leaning bias of bull liquidity above I could have entered a long on the .70 OTE What am i learning, blending of the ranges, while seeing what stops are taken. I also learned the fake move is still a valid move and that the next move can produce the move of the day. Im happy that my analysis was correct for the 2 I just need to span out and consider the session range with the previous session range and the institutional range. Lots to analyze. Keep going!
by LeanLena
EUR/USD Bearish Outlook – Key Levels & Trade Setups📊 Technical Analysis EUR/USD Timeframe: Likely Weekly (1W) Current Price: ~1.0416 📉 Bearish Context: Key Resistance: 1.05290 This zone has been tested multiple times without a breakout, indicating strong selling pressure. It aligns with a liquidity area visible in the red rectangle. Also near the yellow moving average (likely 50 or 100 periods), acting as dynamic resistance. Key Support: 1.02838 Marked in blue as a potential short-term target. A level that previously provided support and may attract buyers again. 📉 Current Scenario: The price has rejected the 1.0529 resistance with a strong bearish candle. A breakdown from the gray zone suggests a potential continuation downward. If selling pressure persists, the 1.02838 target could be reached. 📈 Potential Trading Strategies: 🔻 Short Scenario (Bearish Bias): Entry: Below 1.0430 after confirmation with a daily bearish close. Target 1: 1.02838 Target 2: Below 1.0200 (depending on price action). Stop Loss: Above 1.0500 (to avoid false breakouts). 🔼 Long Scenario (Less Likely Bullish Setup): Entry: Confirmed bounce above 1.02838 with a strong reversal candle. Target: Retest of 1.0529, with a stop below 1.0280. 📌 Final Considerations: The current structure favors a short-term bearish continuation. Key areas (support and resistance) will be crucial for the next move. Watch for macroeconomic data and volatility, as they could impact the trend.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD → Pre-break consolidation against 1.053FX:EURUSD continues to form bullish hints for a possible continuation of growth. There is strong resistance ahead and the market is forming a pre-breakdown consolidation The dollar continues its correction amid economic data, the country's politics and hints from Trump and Powell of a possible rate cut soon. The euro is benefiting from the dollar's decline, but how long will it last, especially amid the tariff war between the U.S. and Europe? Technically, at the moment, the chart indicates a bullish outlook. Within the local uptrend, an ascending triangle is forming, which generally indicates bullish interest in the market. The focus is on the pattern base - resistance at 1.053. Support levels: 1.045, 1.040 Resistance levels: 1.053 If the dollar continues its downward course, the currency pair has all chances to grow. A retest of the trend support (false breakout) before the resistance breakout is possible. Breakout and consolidation of the price above 1.053 may provoke growth. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
2
EUR/UDS D1 | Heading into swing-high resistanceThe Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 1.0929 which is a swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 1.1031 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 1.0728 which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
Why ATR Stops Work (And When They Don’t)Ask ten traders where to place a stop-loss, and you’ll get ten different answers. Some swear by fixed-point stops, others use percentage-based levels, and then there are those who simply ‘feel’ where the market might turn. But traders looking for a more structured approach often turn to the Average True Range (ATR) —a volatility-based indicator that adapts to market conditions. ATR stops can be a great tool for trade management, but they’re not perfect. Let’s break down when they work—and when they don’t. Why Use ATR for Stop-Loss Placement? ATR measures the average volatility of a market over a set period, usually 14 days. Instead of setting a static stop-loss, traders use a multiple of the ATR to position their exit level. The logic is simple: a more volatile market needs a wider stop, while a quiet market can afford a tighter one. For example, if the ATR on GBP/USD is 50 pips and you’re using a 2x ATR stop, your stop-loss would be 100 pips away from your entry. In contrast, if volatility drops and ATR shrinks to 30 pips, your stop would adjust to 60 pips. This approach helps traders avoid getting stopped out by normal market noise while still maintaining a structured risk framework. EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results When ATR Stops Work Well Adapting to Market Conditions Markets aren’t static. Volatility expands and contracts, and ATR-based stops naturally adjust to these shifts. This makes them particularly useful in trending conditions, where price swings can widen over time. Avoiding Arbitrary Stop Placement Instead of guessing where a stop ‘feels right,’ ATR provides an objective framework based on real price movement. This helps remove emotional bias from trade management. Reducing the Impact of Spikes and Noise Many traders place stops just below recent lows or above recent highs—prime hunting grounds for liquidity grabs. ATR stops, positioned at a calculated distance, can help avoid these shakeouts. When ATR Stops Can Fail You Low Volatility = Tight Stops = Premature Exits ATR stops rely on recent price action. In quiet markets, ATR contracts, leading to tighter stop placement. This can be problematic when volatility suddenly picks up, as small price swings can take traders out of otherwise good trades. Doesn’t Consider Market Structure ATR is purely mathematical—it doesn’t care about support, resistance, or key technical levels. Traders who use ATR stops in isolation may find themselves stopped out just before price respects a critical level. Choppy Markets Can Whipsaw ATR Stops In sideways, erratic markets, ATR stops can lead to unnecessary exits. If a market is ranging tightly and ATR is small, stops may be placed too close to entry, leading to multiple stop-outs in quick succession. One Rule That Can’t Be Broken: Never Widen Your Stop One of the biggest mistakes traders make—whether using ATR stops or any other method—is moving a stop-loss further away once it’s placed. This usually happens when a trade starts going against them, and instead of accepting the loss, they ‘give it more room to breathe.’ The problem? This completely undermines risk management. A stop-loss should be a pre-determined level that, if hit, signals the trade idea was wrong. Widening it turns a small, manageable loss into a much bigger one—sometimes even wiping out weeks of gains. If a trade isn’t working and your stop is at risk of being hit, accept it, take the loss, and move on. Adjusting stops should only ever mean tightening them to lock in profits—not loosening them to avoid taking a hit. How to Improve ATR-Based Stops ATR stops work best when combined with other trade management techniques: Use ATR in Conjunction with Market Structure Rather than blindly placing a stop at 2x ATR, check if your stop aligns with key support or resistance levels. If ATR suggests a stop that sits just below a major level, consider widening it slightly to avoid getting shaken out. Adjust for Volatility Cycles If ATR is unusually low due to a period of calm, consider using a longer lookback period (e.g., 21-day ATR) to get a broader view of market volatility. Pair ATR with a Trailing Stop Strategy ATR-based trailing stops allow traders to lock in profits as a trend develops while still giving the trade room to breathe. Instead of setting a fixed stop, you can trail a stop at 1.5x ATR below the most recent high in an uptrend. Final Thoughts ATR stops provide a structured, volatility-adjusted approach to risk management, helping traders avoid common pitfalls like placing stops too tight in high-volatility markets or too wide in quiet conditions. But like any tool, they’re not foolproof. Used in isolation, ATR can lead to premature exits or misplaced stops. The best approach? Use ATR as a guideline, not a hard rule. Combine it with market structure, trend analysis, and an understanding of volatility cycles to refine your stop placement. After all, trading is about staying in the game long enough to capitalise on the big moves—without getting chopped up in the noise. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. 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Education
by Capitalcom
UPDATE ON EUR/USD LONG + 150 PIPS!EUR/USD 15M - As you can see price has gone on to play out really well overnight which has provided us with some amazing profits. I am expecting a TP hit by the end of the week. As we are seeing the production of higher highs and lows we can expect that the last low set is protected and our SL shouldn't be hit in theory if we are to follow the laws of bullish structure. This trade is running + 150 pips. (+ 7%) 7RR What a brilliant trade to be involved in, as you all know I am not someone who over trades or places multiple positions a week, I pick my moments. This is exactly why, as we can take advantage of trades like this. A big well done to all involved, please make sure you take partials and you are applying safety positions with your trades, its important you are managing your trades correctly! Any questions drop me a message or comment below!
Long
by Lukegforex
Previewing Thursday's ECB Decision | FX ResearchLater this week on Thursday, we get the European Central Bank policy decision. The overwhelming expectation heading into the event risk is that the ECB will go ahead and cut rates another 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. Euro area economic activity has been sluggish of late, and the central bank's move to cut rates will help stimulate growth. Indeed, inflation data has also shown signs of easing, which has only helped to strengthen the case for lower rates. At the same time, the ECB will need to be careful, as underlying inflation pressures remain more resilient. But for now, a path forward in which the ECB is leaning towards lower rates makes sense, especially at a time when the central bank is contending with added stress around trade tension, geopolitical risk, and political shifts in France and Germany. As far as the market reaction goes, we believe the balance of risk leans towards more Euro upside than downside against the US dollar. We say this because so much bearishness is already priced in, leaving little room for the Euro to trade much lower on confirmation of a dovish decision. This suggests anything that deviates from this expectation could inspire a decent amount of demand. We are already seeing formidable demand from medium- and longer-term players on dips below 1.03. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets