Check the trend If the price can cross the resistance range with strength, the continuation of the upward trend will be likely. If the support trend line is broken, the downward trend will be likely
USDEUX trade ideas
EURUSD 4H waiting for breakdown and confirmation for growthEURUSD 4H waiting for breakdown and confirmation for growth
Key Points of Analysis:
Expected upward movement: The price may continue to rise after the breakdown of the trend line. Confirmation will be the price holding above this line and the demand zones.
Key targets:
1.0436: First resistance zone expected to be reached if the upside continues.
1.0492 and 1.0553: Next target resistance zones.
Risks: If the price returns under the demand zone (1.0380-1.0404), the upside scenario could be canceled and the price could fall again.
Forecast
With current expectations and if the trend breakout is confirmed, a rise to 1.0436 levels and then to 1.0492 and 1.0553 is likely.
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EUR/USD AnalysisTechnical Setup and Market Outlook
The EUR/USD pair is showing a bearish setup on the 30-minute chart. Key resistance is observed at 1.0420, with the support zone highlighted near 1.0365. A sell trade is initiated at 1.0410, targeting TP1 at 1.0390 and TP2 at 1.0365, while the stop loss is set at 1.0443 to manage risk. This setup aligns with the consistent rejection of the resistance area, signaling potential downside momentum.
From a fundamental perspective, the U.S. dollar is bolstered by strong economic data and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Meanwhile, the euro remains under pressure amid mixed economic performance in the Eurozone. Upcoming macroeconomic events could add further volatility, so traders are advised to stay alert
Note: This analysis is for educational purposes and not trading advice. Consider market conditions and strategies.
Please do not forget the like button, Share it with your friends,thanks, and Trade safe
EURUSD Daily Pivot Points Analysis 27-Dec-2024EURUSD Daily Pivot Points Analysis 27-Dec-2024
Daily R3 - 1.0476
Daily R2 - 1.0453
Daily R1 - 1.0437
Daily Pivot Point - 1.0414
Daily S1 - 1.0397
Daily S2 - 1.0374
Daily S3 - 1.0358
✅✅ EURUSD is holding strong above the Daily Pivot Point, suggesting a slight increase in bullish momentum. Today, EURUSD is above the Daily Pivot Point at 1.0414, indicating continued bullish momentum. If the price rises today, the first resistance will be found near Daily R1 at 1.0437, and the second resistance near Daily R2 at 1.0453.
However, we should remain realistic. Given the current conditions, the market may not begin a new trend. Therefore, the price might release the liquidity again, moving back down near the Daily Pivot Point at 1.0414.
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A pivot point is an intraday technical indicator that's used to identify trends and reversals in equities, commodities, and forex markets.
Pivot points are calculated to determine levels in which the sentiment of the market could change from bullish to bearish and vice-versa.
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You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
EURUSD Will Go Down! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 1.040.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 1.025 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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EURUSD (4H): HIGH-RISK UPTRENDTP2 @ 1.0521
TP1 @ 1.0440
BLO1 @ 1.0401 📈
BLO2 @ 1.0388 ⏳
-SL @ 1.0340 🚫
SUPPORT LEVELS
1.0402 and 1.0388: Immediate support levels where price may bounce upward if tested.
1.0366: A critical level to watch. If the price drops below this, the bullish outlook weakens significantly.
RESISTANCE LEVELS
1.0440: The first major resistance zone. The price must break above this level to continue upward.
1.05214: Your target. This is a significant resistance area, with potential for profit-taking as it aligns with long-term technical factors.
OSCILLATORS (Momentum-Based Indicators)
RSI (49.25): Neutral.
This indicates the market is neither overbought nor oversold
This allows room for movement in either direction.
Momentum (10): Bullish. This suggests upward pressure, supporting your target of 1.05214.
MACD: Indicates a "Buy," confirming mild bullish momentum.
MOVING AVERAGES (Trend Indicators)
Short-Term MAs (10, 20 periods): Bullish.
These suggest the current uptrend has support for the next move.
Medium-Term MAs (50, 100 periods): Bearish.
These indicate resistance in the zone of 1.046–1.052.
Long-Term MAs (200 periods): Bearish.
Reinforces that 1.05214 is a significant resistance area.
KEY INDICATORS
Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA): "Buy" at 1.04036, showing bullish volume activity.
Ichimoku Base Line: Neutral at 1.03953, reflecting the consolidation phase.
ANTICIPATORY TREND to 1.05214
Clear Immediate Resistance at 1.0440
This level represents the first barrier to upward movement.
A breakout above 1.0440, confirmed by strong bullish candlesticks or increased volume, is essential for continuation.
CLOSE ABOVE Resistance at 1.046–1.048
This range aligns with medium-term moving averages.
Expect the price to slow down or consolidate here before pushing higher.
BREAKOUT to 1.05214
Once the price sustains above 1.048, the path to 1.05214 becomes more likely.
Be prepared to take profit or adjust positions, after a breakout
POSITION MANAGEMENT
Entry: If already in a position, hold and monitor the price’s interaction with 1.0440.
Adding to Position: Consider adding only after a confirmed breakout above 1.0440.
1.0440: Partial profit-taking is advised as this level represents significant resistance.
1.05214: Close or scale out the majority of your position as this is your final target.
Place a stop-loss below 1.0388 or 1.0366 to protect against downside risk.
Watch for invalidation signs like price rejection at 1.0440 or sustained movement below 1.0366.
EURUSD's downward channel weakens
On the hourly chart, EURUSD is in the downward adjustment stage of the downward channel. The price rebounded at 1.034, forming an ascending triangle structure. The short-term trend is strong. The upper 1.044 line is under pressure. If this position is adjusted and broken, the price will break through the downward channel and test 1.048 and 1.052 above. The short-term support of 1.038 below, if this position is broken, the triangle structure will break down and test 1.035 below.
Overall, EURUSD is still in the downward adjustment stage. If the downward channel is not broken, the trend is still bearish. In terms of operation, rebound shorting is the main method. When the market rebound triangle converges, the upper edge intersects with the upper edge of the downward channel. If the market is under pressure and weakens, you can participate in shorting. Reference position 1.044-1.046 area. Stop loss 1.048 is enough. Stop loss 1.048 is enough. Downward focus on 1.04, 1.038, 1.035.
Those who are cautious can wait for the price to break through the triangle convergence and then adjust to the pressure level before continuing to short.
Euro in Trouble? EUR/USD Sell Signals Emerge!As we analyze the current market conditions for the EUR/USD currency pair, the signals from the EASY Trading AI strategy indicate a clear selling opportunity. We're looking at an entry price of 1.04151, with a take profit target set at 1.03936333 and a stop loss at 1.04332333.
The reasoning behind this sell forecast centers on recent economic data suggesting weakening fundamentals for the Eurozone. Declining manufacturing output and mixed economic indicators have raised concerns about the euro's stability. In contrast, the U.S. economy shows signs of resilience, with positive job growth and a steady consumer sentiment. This disparity creates an environment favorable for a downward trend in the EUR/USD pair.
Additionally, technical analysis reveals that the pair is testing a critical resistance level, providing an opportune moment to sell. The alignment of fundamental and technical factors supports a bearish outlook, making the entry point compelling.
Traders are encouraged to consider these factors when planning their trades and to stay updated with signals from the EASY Trading AI system, as they adapt strategies dynamically to market changes. As always, ensure you manage your risks while capitalizing on market opportunities.
EURUSD ShortsPrice in resistance area, forming a H&S of a H4 bearish trend. Given the fact that it's nearing EOY, this is deemed as a more riskier trade
EUR/USD: Precision Trading with SMC and ICT StrategiesFX:EURUSD EUR/USD: Precision Trading with SMC and ICT Strategies
Analysis:
Price Action Analysis:
The chart shows the EUR/USD pair on a 1-hour timeframe.
The price is currently at 1.04108.
There is a significant drop followed by a consolidation phase.
Key support and resistance levels are marked, with a strong high at around 1.047 and a strong low at around 1.039.
Smart Money Concepts (SMC):
The chart highlights an Order Block (OB) around the 1.047 level.
There is a Fair Value Gap (FVG) marked, indicating potential areas of price imbalance.
The Relative Balance (RB) is noted, suggesting equilibrium in the market.
ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Strategy:
Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from the recent high to low, with key levels at 0.786 (1.04762912), 0.705 (1.0462586), 0.618 (1.0447856), and 0.5 (1.04279).
The price is currently near the 0.382 level (1.0407344), indicating a potential retracement zone.
The chart also shows Equal Lows and Strong Lows, which are potential liquidity zones.
Indicators:
RSI is at 56.61, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish momentum.
MACD shows a potential bullish crossover.
Volume Profile indicates high trading activity around the current price level, suggesting strong support.
Buy Signal:
entry: 1.04108
tp1: 1.04478
tp2: 1.04762
sl: 1.03967
Sell Signal:
entry: 1.04762
tp1: 1.04478
tp2: 1.04108
sl: 1.05000
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EURUSD The EUR/USD pair drifts lower to around 1.0415 during the Asian trading on Friday. Trading volumes are thin as many traders are on holiday before New Year. Later on Friday, the preliminary reading of the US Goods Trade Balance for November will be releasedAcross the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Boris Vujcic said last week that the central bank will probably cut borrowing costs again if incoming data is in accordance with its projections. The ECB has cut rates four times this year, bringing the deposit rate to 3.0%. Analysts expect policymakers to continue such quarter-point moves until it hits 2.0% in June. This, in turn, might drag the shared currency lower against the US DollarData released on Thursday by the US Department of Labor revealed that the weekly Initial Jobless Claims dropped to the lowest in a month last week. The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits declined to 219,000 in the week ending December 21, compared to 220,000 in the previous week. This reading came in below the market consensus of 224,000
GBPUSD LOTTO MONEYKey Supply and Demand Zones:
Demand Zones (Support):
1.2500 - 1.2475:
Multiple tests of this area indicate significant buyer interest. This zone aligns with psychological support and the recent low.
1.2430 - 1.2400:
Historical support zone where buyers stepped in during previous downtrends.
Supply Zones (Resistance):
1.2550 - 1.2575:
Overlapping with the 50 EMA on shorter timeframes, this area represents a near-term resistance zone.
1.2640 - 1.2650:
Major supply zone reinforced by the 200 EMA on higher timeframes. Price will need significant bullish momentum to break above this level.
Targets:
Upside Targets:
Target 1: 1.2550 (near-term resistance).
Target 2: 1.2600 - 1.2640 (upper range and next key resistance).
Downside Targets:
Target 1: 1.2500 - 1.2475 (immediate demand zone).
Target 2: 1.2430 - 1.2400 (next key support).
Trade Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation
Setup: Wait for a rejection near the 1.2550 - 1.2575 resistance zone.
Entry: Short position around 1.2545 - 1.2560.
Stop Loss: Above 1.2580.
Take Profit:
Target 1: 1.2500.
Target 2: 1.2475.
Reasoning:
The pair remains in a downtrend with clear resistance at 1.2550. RSI and MACD are neutral-to-bearish, supporting the continuation of the trend.
Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal
Setup: Look for a bounce from the 1.2500 - 1.2475 demand zone.
Entry: Long position near 1.2505 - 1.2485 (on confirmation like a bullish engulfing candle).
Stop Loss: Below 1.2465.
Take Profit:
Target 1: 1.2550.
Target 2: 1.2600.
Reasoning:
If the demand zone holds, the pair could retrace higher to test near-term resistance. Oversold RSI on smaller timeframes supports a potential bounce.
Scenario 3: Breakout Play
Setup: If the price breaks and closes above 1.2575.
Entry: Long position above 1.2580.
Stop Loss: Below 1.2550.
Take Profit:
Target 1: 1.2600.
Target 2: 1.2640.
Reasoning:
A breakout above resistance would invalidate the bearish trend and signal a short-term reversal toward the next supply zone.
Indicators to Watch:
RSI:
A divergence near key zones (e.g., higher lows on RSI while price forms lower lows) can signal reversals.
MACD:
Watch for crossovers near key zones for momentum confirmation.
VWAP:
Currently near 1.2529, acting as dynamic resistance. A break above this level would strengthen bullish momentum.
Risk Management:
Keep risk-to-reward ratio at 1:2 or better.
Position sizing should account for stop-loss distance and overall account size.
EURUSD next bullish move EU is looking like it can be finding a pivot point here we have from past weekly sellside LQ being taken out, Daily, and 4hr sellside. we can see maybe a bullish switch here to then continue selling down even lower in the months to come into 2025.
The Market Never Sleeps, and Neither Should Your Edge!Check this out, folks: The chart is looking like a bull’s playground 🐂 with more flags than an Olympic opening ceremony! 🏳️🌈 Let's break it down:
📈 Trend On Fire: Those sharp orange lines? That’s the market saying, “Pullbacks? Sure. But I’m not done climbing!” It’s a stairway to profits, baby! 💸
☕ Cup and Handle Brewing: See that big, juicy magenta cup? 🍵 This chart’s serving up a potential breakout recipe: a little consolidation, a lot of momentum, and maybe a moonshot. 🌕
🤔 But Wait, There’s More: The top triangle is throwing shade like, “I’m running out of steam.” ⚡ Could this be a fakeout before a shakeout? Or just the market catching its breath? Time will tell! ⏳
🎯 Key Levels to Watch:
Breakout above consolidation = 🚀 to new highs.
Failure? It’s time to re-test the base. 🛑
🔥 Remember, the market rewards the prepared, not the hopeful. Stay sharp, stay disciplined, and always trade with an edge. Let’s crush it, fam! 💪
#RoadToAMillion #BullishAF #CupAndHandle #GeorgeKnowsGraphs 🎄✨
Short EURUSDBy Elliott wave count C wave is an impulse wave and we are looking for equlaty between 1 & 5 wave at 1.0217 and it can’t be shorter or longer than wave 1 a cording to Fibonacci percentage compered to wave 1 but most likely it will exceed wave 3 bottom.
EURUSD - Euro in the new year!The EURUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its downward channel. Maintaining the drawn upward trend line will lead to the continuation of the upward trend towards the top of the channel.
In the Eurozone, inflation, which peaked at 10.6% in 2022, has been steadily declining and has approached the European Central Bank’s 2% target since early this year. Economists at Vanguard have projected: “Amid weak economic growth, we expect both headline and core inflation to fall below 2% by the end of 2025.”
The OECD forecasts that the Eurozone’s annual growth will reach 0.8% this year and rise to 1.3% and 1.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. However, 2025 could present significant challenges for the Eurozone’s economic activities, particularly with the anticipated U.S. tariff policies.
Mastercard reported that total U.S. retail sales during this holiday season grew by 3.8%.Online shopping remained the preferred choice for consumers, experiencing a 6.7% growth compared to last year. Additionally, retail sales, excluding automobiles, increased by 3.8% from November to December 24 compared to the same period last year.
Inflationary risks in the U.S. remain prominent, partly influenced by President Trump’s proposed policies, particularly on tariffs and immigration. Consequently, consumer spending, a key driver of U.S. economic growth since the pandemic, might face challenges as trade policies affect the prices of imported goods, including apparel, vehicles, and steel.
According to the latest U.S. jobs report, the economy added 227,000 new jobs in November, while October’s job gains were revised to 36,000. The average monthly job growth in 2024 was approximately 180,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2% in November, exceeding expectations.
Despite this increase, the U.S. long-term unemployment rate remains historically low. Wage growth in November was consistent with October’s figures, showing a 0.4% monthly and annual increase, slightly above market expectations. Overall, the U.S. labor market is showing clear signs of easing contractionary pressures.
Silvercrest Asset Management Group analysts expect job growth to persist due to the high number of open positions. According to the latest JOLTS report, there were 7.74 million job openings in the U.S. as of October. While this is significantly lower than the 12 million openings during the pandemic, it remains above the typical 6-7 million range seen in the late 2010s.
In the Eurozone, the October employment report revealed a historically low unemployment rate of 6.3%. This indicates that the anticipated economic slowdown and hiring reductions have not yet significantly impacted labor market stability. Meanwhile, wage growth in the Eurozone reached a record high of 5.5% this year, potentially adding inflationary pressures.
Economists at Vanguard anticipate that, with Germany’s economic growth slowing sharply, the Eurozone’s unemployment rate will rise to above 6% by the end of 2025. Analysts at Goldman Sachs share this outlook, stating: “Given our forecast for weaker economic growth, we expect unemployment to rise next year, reaching 6.7% by early 2026. Additionally, we anticipate wage growth to decline to 3.2% by the end of Q4 2025, as wage adjustment trends conclude and the labor market softens.”
EURUSD: Ready for a Tactical Upswing?As we dive into the latest forecast for the EURUSD pair, the EASY Trading AI Strategy signals a promising buy opportunity. The recommended entry is at 1.03961, with a take profit target of 1.03986667 and a stop loss at 1.03911667. This setup indicates a modest upward trajectory, aligning with the current market indicators.
The EURUSD pair is showing signs of a potential upswing based on recent technical analysis and market dynamics. Key support levels have held firm, suggesting a foundation for the anticipated recovery. Moreover, macroeconomic factors, such as improvements in Eurozone economic data and stabilizing interest rates, further back this bullish sentiment.
The EASY Trading AI system, renowned for its precision and adaptability, highlights market inefficiencies that often lead to profitable trading windows. By relying on real-time data and historical trends, this system identifies the current market condition as ripe for a rebound.
Traders are encouraged to consider these indicators in their strategy, leveraging the time-tested approach of the EASY Trading AI Strategy. By entering at 1.03961 and aiming for the take profit at 1.03986667, traders can optimize their gains while keeping risk in check with a disciplined stop loss at 1.03911667.
Whether you trade manually or utilize automated solutions like the bots we've developed, adapting to these insights can enhance trading performance. Stay connected with our Telegram signal service or explore our Metatrader 5 algorithms for seamless integration into your routine. With careful monitoring and strategic adjustments, seize this opportunity for a profitable EURUSD trade!
$EURUSD 60-Minute Chart: Bullish Technical Setup in Play🚀 EURUSD Analysis (60-Minute Timeframe):
🔹 After the formation of a technical double bottom , confirmed by the breakout above the neckline at 1.0422, the pair is likely to move towards the 200% Fibonacci extension at 1.0476.
🔹 New resistance formed at 1.0447, still below the previous fractal support at 1.0453.
🔹 A bullish 2618 pattern is unfolding, with recent lows near the crucial 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0382. 📊
🔹 This setup depends on the earlier double bottom formation to hold. 🔄
⚠️ A break below the daily fractal support would invalidate this bullish setup, with targets aligned with the default target for the double bottom. Let's monitor this reversal pattern closely as it could trigger a significant upward move. 📈
Holiday Trading Update: Christmas Eve Market Overview.As we approach Christmas Eve, it's important to note the shortened trading hours in the US. The stock market will close early at 1 PM, while the US bond market will close at 2 PM.
Currency Market Overview
The USD is showing a mixed performance against major currencies:
EUR: +0.12%
JPY: -0.04%
GBP: -0.15%
CHF: +0.18%
CAD: +0.32%
AUD: +0.27%
NZD: +0.23%
US Stock Market Snapshot
US stocks are mixed following yesterday's rise:
Dow: -25 points
S&P: +6.05 points
Nasdaq: +43 points
US Debt Market
Yields have shown marginal changes:
2-year: 4.353%, up 0.3 bps
5-year: 4.454%, up 0.9 bps
10-year: 4.606%, up 0.8 bps
30-year: 4.796%, up 1.3 bps
Global Economic Updates
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
The RBA released its minutes, noting that its policy remains "sufficiently restrictive" to address inflation concerns. Despite gaining confidence that inflation has eased, risks persist. The board highlighted the importance of not prematurely easing policies and acknowledged that if economic growth strengthens, a prolonged delay in rate adjustments might be necessary. Updated forecasts for inflation and growth will be published in February.
Japan's Finance Minister
Finance Minister Kato emphasized the importance of ensuring currency stability to reflect economic fundamentals, particularly in light of recent sharp foreign exchange movements. He stated that the government would maintain close communication with overseas authorities on forex policies and was prepared to take decisive action against excessive volatility.
European Central Bank (ECB)
ECB's Vujčić reiterated that interest rate adjustments would continue as long as data align with projections, emphasizing the central bank's data-dependent approach. He refrained from specifying the exact level at which the ECB might halt rate hikes, underscoring the uncertainty tied to future economic conditions.
US Economic Data
The Richmond Fed index will be released at 10 AM ET, with expectations at -10 versus -14 last month.
The US Treasury will auction 5-year notes at 1 PM. Yesterday, the Treasury auctioned 2-year notes with a 0.1 bp tail and a bid to cover ratio of 2.73X versus the 6-month average of 2.68X. Domestic buyers were very light at 6.7% versus the average of 19.5%, but international buyers showed up, taking 82.1%, well above the average of 68.1%.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD is trading around its 100-hour moving average (MA) at 1.0403, a key short-term barometer for buyers and sellers. A move above this level could signal a more bullish trend, while staying below it would indicate that sellers are in firm control.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY remains in a narrow trading range, currently at 157.12. The rising 100-hour MA at 156.42 is quickly approaching, which will be an important level to watch. Key levels include the high from November at 156.739 and the low from yesterday at 155.94.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD is stretching higher, moving closer to the falling 100-hour MA at 1.2563. Breaking above this level would target a swing area between 1.2596 and 1.26147, followed by the 200-hour MA at 1.26201.
Season's Greetings from OakleyJM
As we approach this festive season, I wanted to extend my warmest wishes to all my followers. May your Christmas be filled with joy, and may the New Year bring you prosperity and success in your trading endeavours..
Navigating the markets during the holidays can be challenging due to reduced liquidity, unexpected volatility, and market closures. Here are a few tips to help you prepare:
Plan Ahead: Be aware of trading schedules and adjust your plans accordingly.
Manage Risk: Use tighter stop-loss orders and reduce position sizes.
Stay Informed: Keep up with the latest news and economic data releases.
Use Limit Orders: Ensure you get the price you want despite wider bid-ask spreads.
Focus on Liquidity: Trade assets with higher liquidity, such as major currency pairs or blue-chip stocks.
Review Your Strategy: Analyse your performance and set goals for the upcoming year.
Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year!
Warm regards, OakleyJM.
Quick technical idea on EURUSDWaiting for a breakout through one of my key areas to consider the next short-term directional move.
FX_IDC:EURUSD EASYMARKETS:EURUSD
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 24, 2024 EURUSDIn the early Asian session on Tuesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been trading with small losses near 1.04000. This is due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates less frequently in 2025, which is providing some support to the dollar. Trading volumes are likely to be low ahead of the holiday trading week.
The resumption of the Fed's 'raise rates longer' policy will be a key factor in the final trading days of the year, which could provide significant upside for the US Dollar (USD).Last week, the U.S. central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by another quarter point, as per the latest quarterly schedule. The Fed committee has revised its expectations for rate cuts in 2025 and beyond. The Fed now forecasts a rate cut of just 50 basis points (bps), or two rate cuts, compared to four quarter-point cuts.Across the pond, the euro (EUR) is weakening amid rising bets for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that the Eurozone is "very close" to meeting the medium-term inflation target set by the ECB, according to the Financial Times on Monday. She also stated that the central bank would consider further cuts to interest rates if inflation continues to fall towards the 2 percent target, as curbing growth is no longer necessary.
Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.04000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
EUR/USD weakens to near 1.0400 in a quiet trading sessionLet’s update the news and forecast the trend of the EUR/USD currency pair together!
The EUR/USD currency pair is primarily influenced by fundamental factors related to the monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB).
In the U.S., expectations that the Fed will scale back interest rate cuts in 2025 have somewhat supported the U.S. Dollar (USD). In its recent meeting, the Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points but simultaneously eased expectations for further rate cuts in the future. This suggests that the Fed may maintain a tighter monetary policy and continue to apply higher interest rates for a longer period, which supports the strong trend of the USD.
On the other hand, in the Eurozone, the Euro (EUR) is under downward pressure due to expectations that the ECB will continue to reduce interest rates. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the Eurozone is now "very close" to the bank's medium-term inflation target. However, if inflation continues to fall, the ECB may need to further cut interest rates to stimulate growth, which would exert downward pressure on the Euro.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is currently trading around the 1.0400 level, a key support level to watch. If this level is breached, the pair is likely to continue its downward trend, with the next support around the 1.0300 area.
Moreover, with trading volumes potentially low ahead of the holiday season, price movements may not be as strong. However, the fundamental factors, particularly the monetary policies of the Fed and ECB, will continue to be the dominant drivers shaping the long-term trend of this currency pair.
EURUSD Trading Journal EURUSD Trading Journal
Dec24
Great delivery on Price yesterday. Still in the previous range.
Today delivering in a discount. I would like to see Price come to the 50% 1.04144 and potentially could seek liquidity of the equal highs rebalancing the 15FVG, before reacting to seek lower prices seeking the FVG noted.
