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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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Interest Rates Are Falling, So Why Is the EUR/USD Declining?Hello everyone, Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading with a slightly negative bias around 1.0360 in early Friday’s Asian session. The major currency pair remains defensive as the US Federal Reserve adopts a less dovish stance despite cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting on Wednesday. In summary: The Fed’s hawkish tone has delivered its intended impact: the dollar has strengthened, and markets have weakened. Today, all eyes are on the November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Meanwhile, the EU will release its preliminary estimate of December Consumer Confidence. Technical Perspective: After the initial decline, the price attempted to recover but faced resistance at key levels, highlighted by the blue liquidity zones on the chart. If the price fails to break through the liquidity zone at 1.03894, we could see further bearish pressure. The first target lies at 1.03502, and a break below this level could drive the price toward 1.03000, marking a significant move for the pair. Wishing you all successful trades and great profits!
Short
by Trader-Briannnn
#EURUSD - 20122024After Wednesday's sell down, price action near term price action showed a recovery and I said to short from higher up. Indeed, we saw a move up of over 50pips before an ability to move higher, and it just closed back near the lows. However the lows still hold. Not exactly bearish though IMO, but could be early to say lows is in in terms of daily candle. For lows to be in, might need a flush down and a quick recovery, similar to what I share for indices. I would try for longs today, either from a level lower, 1.0320/333 or if price can break above PZ and hold, a long from higher.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
Fundamental Analysis of EURUSDEURUSD is trading in the support area which has been respected by the price action since December of 2022. Similarly, there is an area of resistance. There are two scenarios based on the current geopolitical tension and the policy of the new administration in the US. Scenario#1: Risk OFF or USD depreciates against EUR and other currency pairs The new US administration will take charge in Jan 2025, and by that time if the Scenario#2 has not happened then the EUR should appreciate significantly against USD. The new administration is expected to be business friendly. The US economy should get an ultra-boost because of lower taxes and less regulations. There are many other promises made by the winning party like the increase in import tariffs on all the countries, deportation etc., maybe those promises were to attract voters. We don't know how it will play out, so we go with the simple approach that republican party means less regulation, hence business friendly. Scenario#2: Risk ON or USD appreciates against EUR and other currency pairs This scenario could play out even before the new administration takes charge!!! We don't know if it is a bluff from Russia or a real threat, but the fear of nuclear war can be frightening. Whenever there are major escalations in the world, the USD appreciates and that is as simple as 1 + 1 = 2, right?
by spranav
1
Missed Trade Recap: EURUSD - SHORT, 19/12/2024EU Bias Analysis: Daily EPD had been achieved on the minor range and the 4H had established a bearish pro-trend. After reading between the messy price actions lines, I confirmed that short entries were in line with the 1H bearish range. Price pulled back to equilibrium at 50% and the short position could've been executed after entry confirmation. Grade: High Risk Why I Missed This Position: - This position was a high risk trade, and as I'm currently in phase 2 of the trait building protocol, I am only permitted to take low risk variations. - A low risk variation of this position would've seen price retrace to at least the 70.5% fib level without displacing and forming 1-sided FVG's. Once a 1H or 4H KI area was mitigated, I would then require an internal sweep of TBL on the 15M timeframe to satisfy trade parameters.
Short
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
A Delicious Mouth-watering Sell on EURUSDA delicious Set Up is cooking on EURUSD! Higher time frames are on a selling season We will be looking for a major sell at 1.04880 with Stop Loss at 1.04951 and TP at 1.03443. This is a beautiful High Probability set up at a key Supply Zone. How to enter safely? Once price reaches 1.04880, wait for lower time frame confirmation (a change of character and formation of a new order block on 1 minute + the mitigation of that order block before entering for safer entry.) Enter the trade immediately at the mitigation of the 1 minute order block.
Short
by Alpha_Trader_GOD
4
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 19, 2024 EURUSDThe Pound-Dollar pair is strengthening after dropping more than 1% following the hawkish decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday and is trading near 1.25900 in Asian hours on Thursday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) is receiving upward support as the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged later in the day, while maintaining focus on addressing elevated domestic inflation. On Wednesday, data emerged that the U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% year-over-year in November after rising 2.3% in October. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose 3.5% year-on-year in November, up from a previous increase of 3.3%. Meanwhile, annualized services inflation remained at 5%, below the forecast of 5.1% but above the Bank of England's estimate of 4.9%. GBP/USD declined on the back of a stronger US Dollar as the Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting on Wednesday, bringing the benchmark lending rate to a range of 4.25%-4.50%, a two-year low. On Thursday, traders will be watching for weekly data on initial jobless claims, existing home sales and the final annualized third quarter (Q3) gross domestic product. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.26000, if the level is fixed above consider Buy positions, if the level rebounds consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
#EURUSD - 19122024I was somewhat wrong on the direction yesterday but intraday levels worked great. TBH, I was not sure about the direction of move yesterday. I said that it does look bearish and if it goes up first, could see the sell down lower. And it nicely hit 1.0513, sold down to 1.0468 level for 45pips, which I said could be a bounce point and well it did bounce back to OP for 25pips but eventually sold down to lows on FOMC. What's next for today? Similar to indices, very bearish daily candle. One could expect further downside but price is now back to a support zone. I expect a move up to 1.0440 before sellers will appear. If EURUSD could reclaim 1.044 on daily, I see that as low is in and should see further upside going forward.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
EURUSD - Ready For A Bearish Breakout?The EUR/USD pair is currently hovering near the lower end of a consolidation range observed over the past few days. The price is showing indecision as it fluctuates between key levels of support and resistance, with sellers appearing to exert more pressure as indicated by the negative Cumulative Volume Delta. Key Levels: Resistance: The pair has a key resistance zone at 1.0560, which has capped upward moves in recent sessions. Beyond this, stronger resistance lies around 1.0680, marking the upper boundary of the recent trading range. This might be a possible zone for re-entries into short positions. Support: On the downside, 1.0455 is acting as a critical support level. This zone has been tested multiple times but continues to hold, suggesting that buyers are stepping in around these levels to prevent further declines. Price Action: The pair is currently trading within a tight range between 1.0455 and 1.0560. There is no clear directional momentum at the moment, and the pair may continue to consolidate in this zone in the short term. However, repeated tests of the 1.0455 support level suggest that bearish pressure is building. Outlook: A break below the 1.0455 support could open the door for a move toward the next significant support at 1.0350. On the other hand, if the bulls manage to push the price above the resistance at 1.0560, it could trigger a rally toward the higher resistance zone around 1.0680.
Short
by Ochlokrat