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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR USD Weekly Timeframe Outlook EUR USD Trade Setup weekly timeframe On the weekly timeframe EUR USD has tapped on a strong supply level. this level has also acted as a strong resistance level in the past. So we will be looking for selling opportunities from the lower timeframe. Patterns to watch out for. 1. Double Top 2. Head and shoulders pattern 3. Bearish break and retest + it must align with the 0.50 - 0.618 Fib Retracement level for stronger confirmation. 4. Lower timeframe supply levels. Check next post to see the pattern i found.
Short
by OfficialUBKFX
EUR/USD Analysis Ascending Triangle Breakout – Bullish TargetOverview of the Chart: The chart represents the EUR/USD (Euro to U.S. Dollar) pair on a 1-hour timeframe, showcasing a bullish ascending triangle breakout. The pattern indicates an upward continuation in the trend after a period of consolidation. This analysis will break down the key elements of the chart, the technical structure, and the potential trading strategy. 1. Market Structure & Key Zones A. Market Curve Area (Early Trend Development) The price started with a strong bullish trend leading up to the formation of the triangle. The curved trendline suggests a gradual increase in buying pressure, indicating that the market was preparing for a larger breakout. B. Resistance and Support Levels Resistance Level (Red Arrow & Blue Box): This level acted as a price ceiling where sellers previously dominated. The market attempted multiple times to break this resistance before successfully breaching it. Support Level (Green Arrow & Yellow Zone): The price consistently found buyers at this level, reinforcing a higher low structure. The rising support line within the triangle indicated strong accumulation by buyers. 2. Chart Pattern: Ascending Triangle Formation The price action formed an ascending triangle, which is a well-known bullish continuation pattern. The higher lows (trendline support) indicated buyers were gaining control, gradually pushing the price toward the resistance. Eventually, the resistance was broken with strong bullish momentum, confirming a valid breakout. 3. Breakout Confirmation & Retest The breakout above the resistance level came with high volume, indicating strong market participation. After the breakout, a minor pullback (retest) occurred, confirming previous resistance as new support. The price surged upward after the retest, validating the bullish trade setup. 4. Trade Setup & Risk Management A. Entry Strategy A trader would enter a buy (long) position after confirming the breakout. Entry Trigger: Either at breakout (high-risk, early entry) Or after a successful retest (safer entry) B. Stop Loss Placement A stop loss is placed below the previous support level at 1.07276, ensuring risk is limited in case of a false breakout. C. Target Projection The target price is measured using the height of the triangle added to the breakout level. Based on this calculation, the projected target is around 1.12838. 5. Conclusion & Trading Plan The EUR/USD pair has executed a clean ascending triangle breakout, signaling further bullish movement. The trading plan suggests: ✅ Entry: Buy after breakout confirmation or retest. ✅ Stop Loss: Placed below 1.07276 for risk management. ✅ Take Profit: Targeting 1.12838, based on the pattern’s height projection. This setup presents a high-probability long opportunity in a trending market, with proper risk management to protect against potential reversals.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
EURUSD - Correction in the short termGiven that the order flow is bullish on the daily and 15-minute time frames, we expect a temporary correction to begin. Of course, it should be noted that Trump’s recent speech has caused erratic price movement, but my view is that the price hit the daily order block during this speech and collected liquidity above the 4-hour order block. Therefore, we will soon see a bearish order flow on the short time frame, and this movement could go down to the bottom of the 4-hour swing structure (1.07417 range) in the first stage.
Short
by alixjey
1
EURUSD Volatility Alert: Can It Sustain A Break of 2025 Highs?President Trump’s confirmation of the size and scope of his reciprocal tariffs last night at a much-anticipated ‘Liberation Day’ event in the rose garden at the White House has resulted in a broad wave of negative risk off sentiment which has seen global stock markets fall, and US indices especially come under severe pressure. This trade war escalation has also led to dollar selling overnight, with the US Dollar Index dipping over 1% to fresh 7 month lows, EURUSD and GBPUSD both trading to multi-month highs, while USDJPY and USDCHF have fallen. A reason for this move could be that traders and investors may now be increasingly concerned about the negative impact pursuing this tariff policy may have on the US economy, as global trading partners retaliate with tariff measures of their own on US imports. If that were to be the case, then the outcome of the US ISM Services PMI survey later today at 1500 BST and then tomorrow’s Non-farm Payrolls announcement, which is released at 1330 BST, could have a bearing on whether EURUSD continues this recent break above 2025 range highs at 1.0937/55, or falls back lower again. Both of these data releases could provide traders with an important health check on the current state of the US economy. EURUSD Technical Outlook Reaction to the latest news on US tariffs has seen USD selling pressure emerge, and this has resulted in an upside acceleration in EURUSD overnight and so far this morning. A move that is attempting to break and close above what traders may well be focusing as an important resistance area at 1.0937/55. This resistance area is equal to both the November 5th, 2024, and March 18th, 2025, recovery highs. Previously, these levels capped upside momentum which ultimately resulted in price weakness developing again. Meaning this area might be important if the current upside move in EURUSD is now able to break and close above this range, as it may be an indication buyers are beginning to gain the upper hand once more and might be able to push EURUSD to higher levels. However, it must be said, a confirmed closing break of this type of resistance is no guarantee of a more sustained phase of price strength, especially given the important economic data and retaliatory tariff updates that are due to be released. What are the Next Possible Resistance Levels if a Confirmed Upside Break Does Materialise? A successful confirmed break of the 1.0937/55 resistance area might be an indication that traders are starting to look at the possibility of higher levels. So let’s have a look at what these levels might be. As the chart above shows, a bounce failure high was established at 1.0997 on October 8th, 2024, which having previously held attempts at strength may do so again. That said, if this in turn was to give way, it could then be the September 25th high at 1.1214 that traders may look to as a potential important resistance level. What If the Current Price Strength Fails? As we have said, even if closes above the 1.0937/55 resistance area are seen, it is no guarantee of further upside moves. It is possible the current price strength may not be sustained, and fresh downside moves in price are seen again. As such, let's look at some potential downside support levels to monitor. The first support if a period of EURUSD price weakness now develops may be 1.0889, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upside strength. This may be an area that might limit future price declines. However, if a break below this potential support were to occur, risks may then turn towards a deeper decline to 1.0828, which is the 61.8% retracement, or if this level was broken, even back towards the March 27th, 2025, low at 1.0733. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
EURUSD HOURLY UPDATES Hello folks, EU/ EUR/USD Updates, since this idea working on higher timeframe/daily. I will be shorting above, see the sl zone. The targets see below. Good luck. My idea is on daily, if price goes down hard, I will update for entries at 4h. Idea here is continuation pattern on a weekly basis. So if price goes down it might retrace only. Pewwpeww. This is not a financial advice, use stop loss for your protection, just a like a condom. lol Good luck fellas, Writing more ideas base only my trading style.
Short
by D1GITALTRADES
Buy setup - limit order wait for pull back Analysis Bias: Bullish with caution Market Structure: The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.0821, showing bullish price action in the most recent days after a period of decline. Looking at the 4-hour chart, we see a strong upward move in early March followed by a correction and consolidation phase. The price is now attempting to form higher lows after reaching a recent bottom at around 1.0740. On the 1-hour chart, the price has formed a series of higher lows over the past 2 days, suggesting some bullish momentum building. However, the overall structure shows range-bound movement between approximately 1.0740 and 1.0850. The 15-minute chart confirms the short-term bullish bias with recent candles making higher highs and higher lows. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.0850 (recent swing high) Support: 1.0740 (recent swing low) Immediate resistance: 1.0830 Trade Setup Entry: Limit order at 1.0800 (pullback to retest broken minor resistance) Stop Loss: 1.0765 (35 pips below entry, below recent structure low) Take Profit (TP): 1.0850 (previous resistance level) Extended Take Profit (TP2): 1.0900 (psychological level) Order Type: Limit order Rationale: The market is showing signs of bullish momentum, but we want to wait for a pullback to a better entry price rather than chasing the current move. The 1.0800 level has acted as both support and resistance in recent price action. A pullback to this area would provide a better risk-to-reward ratio. If no pullback occurs and price continues upward, consider an alternative entry on a clean break and retest of the 1.0850 resistance level, with stop loss 35 pips below that entry point. Alternative Scenario: If price breaks below 1.0740 convincingly, the bullish bias would be invalidated, and a bearish setup could emerge. In this case, wait for a potential short opportunity after a retest of the broken level.
Long
by ShlomoYahbes
2
EUR/USD: Correction or a New Wave of Growth?Hi All! Last week, the euro continued its correction after a strong impulse, which is identified as subwave 3 within wave 3 of a higher degree. A technical correction occurred at the end of the week, and now the key question is whether it has been completed. 📍 Key Levels: ✅ 1.08600 – A breakout will confirm the end of the correction and open the way toward resistance levels at 1.09100 – 1.09400. ✅ If subwave 4 is complete, the next targets are 1.1100 – 1.1200. ✅ Deeper correction scenario: A possible dip toward the 100-hour moving average around 1.07800. If this level holds, we expect further growth. Otherwise, a deeper correction toward 1.07255 (38% Fibonacci retracement of subwave 3) could follow. 📊 What’s next? We are waiting for a confirmed breakout of 1.08600 or a rebound from the 100-SMA (H4).
by AUREA_RATIO
2
EURUSD: Is the Market Ready for a Reversal? Hi Traders! Since March 18, EURUSD has been moving within a descending parallel channel, with its boundaries holding the trend in place. Yesterday, we saw a bounce off the lower boundary of the channel, accompanied by: ✅ A correction reaching 38% Fibonacci of subwave 3 ✅ Wave C of the expected horizontal correction (wave 4) reaching 1.68 of wave B 📊 What Does This Mean? At this point, we have a strong case for a EURUSD reversal and a continuation of the upward movement. ⚡ Key Signal: To enter a position, we need to wait for a confirmed breakout above the channel. This will provide a solid basis for a medium-term trade, with targets at: 🔹 1.0950 🔹 1.1150 🔹 The 1.12 - 1.1250 zone
Long
by AUREA_RATIO
1
Having no position is also position- EURUSD - Official Tarrifs Dear Traders, Investors and every interested person I dont going to lie Im trough hard weeks maybe months after Trump became president although I’m sure you too. As of 01/04/2025 we are just few hours away to enjoy our rollercoaster ride in the amusement park of the USA GOVERMENT. Their old-new attractions is about tariffs and reciprocal tariffs. Those who’s are not familiar what is a tariff I recommend reading this part those, whose already going to the bed and waking up with it may skip it the following section. A **tariff** is a **tax imposed by a government on imported or exported goods**. It's one of the tools countries use in international trade policy. Here's a breakdown: Types of Tariffs : 1. Import Tariff – tax on goods coming **into** a country. ( We are dealing with this curently) 2. **Export Tariff** – tax on goods going **out** of a country (less common). Why Governments Use Tariffs: Protect domestic industries by making foreign products more expensive. Generate revenue for the government. -Retaliate against unfair trade practices or tariffs from other countries. Example: If the U.S. places a **20% tariff** on imported French wine, that means any French wine imported into the U.S. will have an additional 20% tax added to its price. This makes domestic wine relatively cheaper, helping local producers compete . ___________________________________________________________________________ As of April 1, 2025, President Donald Trump has implemented or announced tariffs affecting a wide range of goods from multiple countries. Here's a summary of the current tariff measures Tariffs on Canada and Mexico February 1, 2025: President Trump signed executive orders imposing a 25% tariff on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico, citing concerns over illegal immigration and drug trafficking. -March 4, 2025: These tariffs took effect, leading to retaliatory measures from both countries. April 2, 2025: Tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico, which had been temporarily exempted, are set to be enforced. Tariffs on China -February 1, 2025: An additional 10% tariff was imposed on imports from China due to the country's alleged failure to curb the export of fentanyl precursors and address money laundering activities. March 4, 2025: The tariff rate on Chinese imports was increased to 20% Global Tariffs - COMMING April 2, 2025 President Trump has declared this date as "Liberation Day," marking the implementation of new tariffs aimed at addressing trade imbalances. Reciprocal Tariffs The administration plans to enforce tariffs that match the rates other countries impose on U.S. goods, effectively applying a **20% tariff** on most imports. Automobile Imports: A specific 25% tariff on imported passenger vehicles, light trucks, and key automobile parts is set to take effect on April 3, 2025. Tariffs on the European Union- Because we treated very badly..... -February 26, 2025: President Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the European Union, with a particular focus on the automotive sector. Secondary Tariffs on Oil Imports March 2025: The administration has threatened secondary tariffs on countries importing oil from Russia and Iran. This means that nations purchasing oil from these countries could face U.S. tariffs if they continue such trade while also engaging with the American market. ____________________________________________________________________________ In case of you get lost between the dates please take look at the Comprehensive Tariff Table – President Trump (2025) as of 01/04/2025 ____________________________________________________________________________ Hereafter I would like turn your attention to the period of 28/02/2025 - 19/03/2025 What caused this relentless and, for many traders, painful +5.35% upside move under 19 days? 🇩🇪 Germany has unveiled a comprehensive fiscal strategy involving substantial investments in both infrastructure and defense sectors over the next decade. Here's a breakdown of the planned expenditures: Infrastructure Investment: €500 Billion Special Fund : The government has established a €500 billion special fund dedicated to infrastructure and climate-related projects over a 12-year period. This fund is designed to modernize critical systems, including energy grids, transport networks, digital infrastructure, education, and healthcare facilities. Notably, €100 billion of this fund is earmarked specifically for climate action initiatives aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2045. Defense Spending: Exemption from Debt Brake: In a significant policy shift, Germany has amended its constitutional "debt brake" to exempt defense and security expenditures exceeding 1% of GDP from borrowing limits. This adjustment effectively removes the previous cap on defense spending, allowing for increased investments in military capabilities. Projected Defense Expenditure: While exact figures may vary based on annual GDP and specific defense needs, this exemption is anticipated to facilitate approximately €400 billion in additional defense spending over the next 10 years. This fiscal policy measures does not take place often, but honestly signs were on the market that something is cooking at the back: Someone knows something that I dont. And you neither. XETR:DAX from 01/January/2025 was not too much reason for the steady increase in the shadow of the trade war. FX:EURUSD just look at the price actions from 01/January/2025 till the German gov announcement. I could not explained for myself fundamentally what is happening. Why I see huge positioning with towards the upside when we still facing measures which can push major economies in the EURO AREA as France and Germany more deeper under the water where they already been.... No economic data refuted my findings. Anyway, after all I said to myself let’s wait meanwhile, I was shorting the EUR because I felt the possible damage of the planned measures are not correctly priced in. (Interest rate parity, industrial production under 50 ( which means contraction) and a few other things. ) 03/03/2025 Thats when everything got sense. Lesson learned: If you feel something do not suppress it especially when the signs are that strongs as above mentioned period. The effect: All Europen goverment bond yields skyrocketed TVC:DE10 TVC:FR10 Why ? The German plans means that the goverment needs money and market said well i need return so I will finance you +3% and 2,30% Bonds market are the real drivers behind the currency movements and this case the effect was drastic. In order to buy eur denominated bonds you need euro, therefore you exchange your currency to euro. ___________________________________________________________________________ Tomorrow questions is whats will be new in terms of tarrifs? I do expect that soon the inflation will edge higher in the US which can trigger US bonds yield to increase significantly, but is will lead for short term dollar gain. USA is playing with the fire since if their avarage debt interest payments will be +5% thats will open darker boxes soon than in 2008. Much darker. So thats why I would enjoy the short term currency gain which is autonomous and than exchange my dollar to euro everywhere.
by ElGatoTrade
Long EURUSD retest of breakout levels Macro outlook for the remainder of the week Upcoming News US NFP at 430pm Fri USD downside Bad NFP report USD upside Good NFP report News review Liberation Day - Full-scale tariff were definitely not a good thing for the USD as investor fear of it causing a recession is currently outweighing the potential of keeping interest rates high to prevent inflation from running hot. Price has voted this way, so let's keep with it. The risk to this thesis is if Powell comes out and convinces the market that he will focus on inflation over all else and take a hard stance similar to volcker. Then we switch fundamental views. Technical view Breakout of the previous levels at 1.0954 With NFP coming up, I'm looking for a retrace back to near the breakout level before it, then take a high RR bet for the trend to continue to the upside. Timeframe of bet → Till Friday around NFP Price level of interest → 1.099 to 1.0954 Execution Price alert set Look for price to touch the area, and reverse SL: 1.093 for now. Will be determined based of reversal candle and what's the low of the retracement move. TP: Highs of 1.11 Results of ideas thus far: Number of trades: 1 WR: 0% Profit: -0.1R Notes: This is currently for personal practice to write out trade ideas. Feedback is welcome, and please don't mind if none of this makes sense.
Long
by yuhaocooper
Skeptic | EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Breakout or Reversal?Welcome back, guys! 👋 I'm Skeptic. Today, we're diving deep into EUR/USD , analyzing key levels and potential triggers. 🔍Recap & Current Structure: As mentioned in our previous analysis , after the previous uptrend, EUR/USD entered a consolidation phase. Our short trigger at 1.07124 played out well, reaching an R/R of 2—if you followed the idea, you saw the results! Now, we’ve formed a new structure , which is more visible on the 1H timeframe. After breaking the descending trendline and pulling back , we've now created a higher high , indicating a potential move toward the top of the box at 1.09453 . With DXY weakening, the expectation leans towards an uptrend continuation, but we remain flexible—if our short trigger activates, we'll take it as well because we approach the market with a two-sided, skeptical view rather than a fixed bias. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup): Trigger: Break & close above 1.08454 Confirmation: 7 SMA below the candle during the breakout + RSI entering overbought ]Invalidation: Rejection + close back below 1.07666 📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup): Trigger: Rejection at 1.08278 + drop below 1.07666 Confirmation: RSI entering oversold ⚠️ Key Notes: Fundamentals: This Friday is NFP day—a crucial event for the markets. Given the recent uptrend in EUR/USD, a pullback is likely, so stay prepared for both triggers. Risk Management: Avoid overleveraging—wait for confirmed breaks before entering. Stay sharp, and I’ll see you in the next analysis!
by SkepticWise
1
POTENTIAL LONG TRADE SET UP FOR EURUSDAnalysis: Utilizing chart patterns, highs & lows, and impulses & corrections, the focus is on identifying a continuation corrective structure following a breakout. The price has approached the lower bound of a bullish continuation structure on the higher time frame (HTF) with a broadening descending structure on the Mid time frame (MTF). We will now monitor for a bullish impulse and continuation structure to identify a potential entry point for the trade. Expectation: A upward move is expected, with the initial target at 1.08 and subsequently at the top of the HTF bullish continuation structure. ⚠️ Reminder: Always conduct your own analysis and apply proper risk management, as forex trading involves no guarantees. This is a high-risk activity, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade responsibly!
Long
by TheTradingAmbience
7
EURUSD Gains Momentum After Tariff CommentsEURUSD Gains Momentum After Tariff Comments On March 26th, EUR/USD started a strong upward trend following comments by Trump about auto and other tariffs. The price has already climbed by about 110 pips in just four days. There’s a good chance EURUSD could rise further, potentially reaching 1.0845 and 1.0875, as indicated in the chart. The market is not clear overall about Trump's tariffs and what he is doing. This could continue to create uncertainty across USD pairs. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KlejdiCuni
2