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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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#EURUSD 1HEURUSD 1-Hour Analysis The EURUSD pair has broken out of a downtrend channel resistance on the 1-hour chart, signaling a potential shift in momentum to the upside. This breakout indicates bullish strength and presents an opportunity for buying as the price may continue to rise toward higher resistance levels. Technical Outlook: Pattern: Downtrend Channel Resistance Breakout Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity) Entry Strategy: Enter a buy position after confirming the breakout with bullish price action signals, such as a retest of the broken resistance line acting as support or the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Traders should monitor indicators like RSI for overbought conditions or MACD for confirmation of bullish momentum. Employ proper risk management with stop-loss orders placed below the breakout or retest level, and set profit targets at key resistance zones above.
Long
by PIPSFIGHTER
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 16, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair starts the week with continued gains, trading around 1.05200 during the Asian session on Monday. This rise can be attributed to the decline in the US Dollar (USD) amid lower US Treasury bond yields ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at its final monetary policy meeting in 2024. Market analysts predict the U.S. central bank will cut rates but prepare the market for a pause given the strong U.S. economy and inflation stalled above 2%. According to CME's FedWatch tool, markets have already all but priced in the possibility of a quarter basis point rate cut at the Fed's December meeting. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference and dot plots will be closely watched. Earlier this month, Powell struck a cautious tone, saying, “We can afford to be a little more cautious in trying to find a neutral stance.” He indicated he was in no rush to cut rates. The euro gained support after President Emmanuel Macron appointed centrist ally Francois Bayrou as France's prime minister, raising hopes for political stability. Macron promised to quickly select a new candidate for the job after Michel Barnier was forced to resign following a confidence vote in parliament. Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 1.05000, if consolidated below consider Sell positions, if rebounded consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
WHERE WILL THE EUR GO NEXT?Trading Plan Baseline Short-Term Sentiment Bias: - Euro under pressure, trading below $1.05 due to ECB rate cuts and political uncertainty in France and Germany. - Markets expect an additional 50 basis points cut by February. Upcoming Risk Events : - German Manufacturing PMI (Dec): Previous: 43.0, Consensus: 43.1. - German Services PMI (Dec): Previous: 49.3, Consensus: 49.5. - Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI: Previous: 45.2, Consensus: 45.3. - Eurozone Flash Services PMI: Previous: 49.5, Consensus: 49.5. Surprise: Positive Surprise: - Outcome: PMI beats expectations. - Trade: Long EUR/CHF (bond yield spreads suggest upside). Negative Surprise: - Outcome: PMI misses expectations. - Trade: Quick scalp on EUR/NZD (slight downside based on bond yield spreads). Bigger Picture Macro-Fundamental Bias - ECB's Stance: Data-dependent approach, removed restrictive rate stance. - Inflation Outlook: Headline inflation projected to average 2.4% in 2024, decreasing to 1.9% by 2026. - GDP Revisions: Lowered to 0.7% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025. - Market Expectations: Continued rate cuts expected due to weak growth and low inflation.
by Midas_Macro
EUR/USD Chart and Future Price target analysis 1. Highest open interest (OI) for Call option with high volume indicates higher probability of price. 2. Movement in that direction in the near future. 3. CME Vol & OI data as of 12.15.2024, 5 PM. 4. 10,600 strike price has the highest Put option OI. 5. Both high Put and Call OI at the 10,600 strike price with high volume. 6. 10,600 considered a strong price level. 7. Option expiry for January 2025. Total of 3 Resistance along ( OB, OP, FIB and Bottom Strong 3rd Deviation )
Long
by rcsaints
EURUSD InsightHello to all subscribers! Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe for more updates! Key Points - Reports indicate that the Bank of Japan is considering holding rates steady due to increasing uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook caused by Trump’s trade policies. - The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at the December FOMC meeting, though projections suggest an upward revision of the dot plot. A rate hold is anticipated in January. - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided on a 25 basis point rate cut. Some members dismissed the possibility of a 50 basis point cut, showing support for gradual 25 basis point reductions. - The Bank of England (BOE) is expected to maintain its policy rate at 4.75%. Key Economic Data + December 17: U.S. November retail sales + December 18: U.K. November Consumer Price Index (CPI), Eurozone November CPI, FOMC meeting results + December 19: Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decision, BOE rate decision + December 20: U.S. November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index EUR/USD Chart Analysis EUR/USD is currently consolidating within a narrow range. If it breaks above the resistance at 1.06000, an increase to 1.07500 is expected. Conversely, if it breaks below the support at 1.04500, a drop to 1.03400 is anticipated. At the current price, a short-term rise toward the 1.06000 level is likely. If the market behaves differently than expected, I’ll quickly adjust the strategy.
Long
by shawntime_academy
Bearish Setup on EUR/USD After Rejection at Key ResistanceTrading Idea on 1-Hour Chart (H1): The EUR/USD pair is showing signs of a potential bearish continuation after testing a key resistance zone around 1.0540 - 1.0544, which aligns with a previously broken downward trendline. The market structure on the H1 timeframe indicates lower highs, suggesting sellers are regaining control. Technical Confirmation: Key Resistance Zone: The 1.0540 - 1.0544 area acts as a significant rejection point where bullish momentum appears to be weakening. Break-Retest Pattern: The price broke below a descending trendline and is now retesting the zone, showing clear signs of rejection. RSI Indicator: The RSI is currently near 60, reflecting recent bullish movement but remaining below overbought levels, which signals potential exhaustion in the upward move. Technical Confirmation: Key Resistance Zone: The 1.0540 - 1.0544 area acts as a significant rejection point where bullish momentum appears to be weakening. Break-Retest Pattern: The price broke below a descending trendline and is now retesting the zone, showing clear signs of rejection. RSI Indicator: The RSI is currently near 60, reflecting recent bullish movement but remaining below overbought levels, which signals potential exhaustion in the upward move. Summary: This idea is based on a bearish continuation pattern following rejection at a key resistance zone, supported by trendline retest and weakening bullish momentum. Confirmation on lower timeframes (e.g., M15) is recommended before entry.
Short
by Jose_ManuelR
LONG TERM TRADE BREAKDOWN USING ONLY TECHNICALS...EURUSD EXAMPLEHey everyone! Hope you are all having an amazing weekend so far! I just wanted to come on here and make a post on a potential longer term outlook I have on the EURUSD currency pair using ONLY technical analysis and some confluence I am seeing technically on this pair. So let's dive in! OK so to start we want to actually look back to the past. A lot of the time when we are looking to take a trade for a "future" move we have to look back at the "past" as well. Because you guys have probably heard the saying that "history repeats itself" and that is absolutely true when it comes to the financial markets and historical, significant levels of price. Quick side note: PAST LEVELS OF PRICE ARE REALLY PSYCHOLOGICAL ZONES. WHAT DO I MEAN? Well if you look at price when it returns to previous areas of buying or selling; whether you call that demand/support or supply/resistance these levels are displaying to us that SOME BIGGER PLAYERS; or players in general; had a INTEREST to buy or sell at that zone whatever the reason may be. Which if you break that down means they have a MEMORY of that zone and MAY WANT THAT PRICE AGAIN in the future. If they still like the deal. THAT is why it is psychological. Okay moving on... So when looking at this chart we can see back starting in October of 2022 we saw an upward move in the market happen that took prices from multi-decade lows around 0.9500-0.9700 area to highs around the 1.1300 price zone. This is a LARGE move in the markets and represents a macro move in the EUR vs the US DOLLAR. We can see that back in August of 2024 (current year) that prices came up to test those 1.1300 highs that were formed in July of 2023 but ultimately FAILED to break higher leading to now months of downward movement and weakening of the EUR vs the US DOLLAR. SO what to take away from all that? WELL on a macro level I am seeing that price wasn't ready to make new highs...so that means 1 of 2 things: 1. There wasn't enough buyers to break the previous highs 2. It wasn't the right deal for price for the bigger players to buy up enough to push it past those July of 2023 highs SO what that is now leading me to believe based on the technical here and what they are displaying is that we can now see prices come back down to a weekly demand (psychological) zone that was formed back in June/July of 2022 when that original large move happened, and SEE IF THAT IS THE DEAL that buyers on a macro level want to send prices ultimately higher on a macro perspective...even higher than the July of 2023 highs. Technically we can see that obviously there is a level of significant demand/support. We also have a fib alignment in that zone of the 78.6% retracement level (80% DISCOUNT!) ANDDDD we have a potential equal measured move aligning with multi-year supply up at the 1.17500-1.1800 price handle...oh and did I mention the -0.27% fib extension lines up with it also? Some nice CONFLUENCE with that as well OKAY guys I know this was a long breakdown but this is a longer term perspective and wanted to appropriately break this analysis down for you guys so for all the longer term outlook traders/investors this is the level (if it comes back down to) to keep an eye on! Hope you all enjoyed please boost this post and follow my page if you enjoyed this analysis and would like to see more accurate analysis and potential trade ideas. Cheers! Merry Christmas!
Long
by JosePips
Euro-dollar struggles to find directionTraders have mostly discounted the latest single cut by the European Central Bank (‘the ECB’) since that was widely expected and the comments in the subsequent press conference didn’t give any significant new information. Inflation has also risen in the eurozone in the last two months but hasn’t reached as high as in the USA. The difference in rates between the ECB and the Fed is likely to remain at least 1% for the foreseeable future. After a bounce at the end of November following the failed test of $1.04, euro-dollar hasn’t shown ongoing momentum upward. It might now fall into a sideways trend with a range between around $1.04 and $1.06. Most indicators are close to neutral in the shorter term but the main downtrend active in October and November could reassert itself depending on the reaction to the Fed’s meeting and, to a lesser extent, PCE and GDP.
by Exness_Official
EUR/USD shorts to take key levels of liquidity belowI am expecting EUR/USD shorts this week as the Euro tends to align with the pound. overall from my HTF analysis the euro is bearish but we can expect price to retrace in order to further push down. However, this week we see one of two options, price either pushing up to take the ASH created from market open before continuing in the downtrend from the 45min supply. The second option price will push up to the 4h supply, validating the 2h demand that lays below ensuring price pushes up which will be it's HTF retracement before price overall comes to the downside. we will see how price plays out this week from market open and its intentions will become slightly clearer on Monday and we will then better understand if price is ready to make its retracement or price wishes to continue down further.
Short
by JamelCapital
eurusd trade ideaHello guys got a trade idea for the next week ahead. Price has been in a downtrend for some time due to price hitting major supply zone which in return created LH/LL. Price has than created liquidity zones which got taken out and provided liquidity to the upside which broke the recent high creating a CHOCH (change of character) thus creating a new 2hr demand zone (blue) Waiting on price to come back to preferably the 5min demand zone listed in yellow or the 2hr zone and create another BOS (break of structure) for entry. It just depends on what opportunity the market gives us.
Long
by chiefcapitalfx
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has demonstrated bearish momentum during this week's trading session by staying firmly between Mean Res 1.060 and Mean Sup 1.049. This weak price action might be the clue to nulling the Inner Currency Rally 1.072 and extending its trajectory to revisiting the completed Outer Currency Dip 1.035. Nevertheless, it is essential to note that the Eurodollar may retest the Mean Res level at 1.060 and reignite its upward trend.
by TradeSelecter