Learn with meImbalance cleared and turned into resistance then after bullish break out we retested it as support
USDEUX trade ideas
EURUSD is moving within the 1.15900 -1.18500 range👉🏼 Possible scenario:
The euro gained 0.16% on July 1, nearing its highest level against the dollar since 2021. Fed Chair Powell maintained a cautious tone on rate cuts, reinforcing expectations of possible easing if economic data weakens. Tensions between President Trump and Powell, including Trump's push for lower rates, have raised concerns over Fed independence and added pressure on the dollar.
Traders now await ECB President Lagarde’s speech and the U.S. ADP jobs report on July 2, which could influence EURUSD direction. A weak jobs print may send the pair toward 1.17500.
✅Support and Resistance Levels
Now, the support level is located at 1.15900
Resistance level is located at 1.18500
EURUSD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.177.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.171.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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EURUSD: Building Pressure for a Breakout?Hello everyone! What do you think about EURUSD?
Today, the pair is trading around 1.179 and continues its bullish trend as the US dollar tumbles in global markets.
While EURUSD is currently confined within a wedge pattern, history shows this formation often favors bullish continuation. Personally, I’m watching closely — either for a pullback to the lower boundary or a confirmed breakout to trigger a stronger rally.
What about you? What’s your outlook on EURUSD?
Euro H4 | Falling toward a pullback supportThe Euro (EUR/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 1.1744 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1.1660 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 1.1829 which is a swing-high resistance.
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LONG EURUSD - possible upside setupCurrent structural break to the upside suggest a potential bullish continuation if price hold up above our support zone
A break below our support zone will invalidate a bullish scenario from then on a neutral position would be ideal
Buy zone 1.7879 - 1.7831
Targets 1.18293 - 1.18131
EURUSD: Uptrend Targeting 1.18600EURUSD is maintaining a solid bullish structure after breaking above the 1.17300 zone. The pair is currently consolidating around 1.1800 and may see a minor pullback before pushing toward the 1.18600 target.
The main support comes from a weaker USD following Fed Chair Powell’s “patient” remarks, along with strong PMI data from the EU. EURUSD has now posted 10 consecutive days of gains, signaling strong upward momentum.
As long as price holds above the FVG zone near 1.1780, the bullish trend remains intact, with 1.18600 as the next potential upside target.
#AN012: Early July News and Forex Impact
1. US Debt and Dollar Depreciation
The US Senate is debating an ambitious $3.3 trillion fiscal package, fuelling concerns about rising debt. The dollar has lost ground against the euro, hitting its lowest level in nearly four years.
Forex Impact: Dollar weakness favors crosses such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Possible rate speculation, with prospects of Fed cuts.
2. NATO Summit and Increased Defense Spending
At the NATO summit in The Hague, the commitment is to increase to 5% of GDP by 2035. This strengthens European government bonds and the dollar, in view of a safe-haven and new flows into the USD.
Forex Impact: Support for the USD, increased volatility on crosses linked to the euro and sterling, potential trade on EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
3. Taiwan dollar appreciation
The Taiwan dollar jumped 2.5% as local insurers hedge against dollar decline.
Forex Impact: Dollar depreciation slows; Asian crosses such as USD/SGD and USD/KRW under pressure.
4. Global dollar weakness
Euro bounces above 1.17 and USD/CHF below 0.80 on weak macro data and Fed cut speculation.
Forex Impact: Open to long EUR/USD, short USD/CHF strategies, with potential carry trades.
5. Israel-Iran Ceasefire & Geopolitical Risk
Israel-Iran fighting ends, but tensions remain. Markets are monitoring the fallout on oil and safe assets.
Forex Impact: Possible increase in geopolitical volatility, with USD, JPY, CHF as a hedge; volatility on oil influences crosses that contain commodities (AUD/USD, CAD/USD).
Hi, I'm Andrea Russo, a forex trader, and today I want to talk to you about the impact of the latest global news on currency markets.
🏛️ US debt and fiscal tensions
The 3.3 trillion fiscal package under discussion in the United States has weakened the dollar. This weakness fuels opportunities on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with potential upside on long positions, but beware of future Fed interventions.
⚔️ NATO towards 5% of GDP for defense
The NATO Summit in The Hague marked a paradigm shift: more defense spending means bond issuance and USD flows as a safe-haven. This supports the greenback, making European crosses volatile.
💱 Forex Asia: the case of the Taiwanese dollar
Yesterday's rise in the Taiwan dollar is a clear sign of protection against USD weakness. Unicorn to watch for those betting on emerging crosses in Asia.
💶 EUR/CHI and euro crosses recovering
EUR/USD rises above 1.17 and USD/CHF falls below 0.80: perfect timing for strategic longs. The market is discounting falling Fed rates, amplifying the momentum on the euro.
🛡️ Geopolitics: fragile truce and geopolitical risk
The truce between Israel and Iran currently limits the impact but does not eliminate the risk: safe haven assets such as USD, JPY and CHF remain under pressure for future eventualities.
🎯 Conclusion and trading opportunities
Long EUR/USD on euro momentum and USD reflux
Monitoring GBP/USD for macro sentiment
Watch out for USD/CAD, AUD/USD for oil shocks
This article was created with the support of our Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE.
Keep following me for more updates.
EUR/USD Monthly Timeframe Analysis (SMC / ICT-Based) EUR/USD Monthly Timeframe Analysis (SMC / ICT-Based)
Current Price: 1.17437 (approx)
OB (Order Block):
A bearish order block is marked in the orange zone around 1.2250–1.2400, which aligns with a potential reversal point.
BSL (Buy-Side Liquidity):
Located just above the OB, targeting liquidity above prior highs. Price is expected to sweep this liquidity before reversal.
FVG (Fair Value Gap):
A red box indicating imbalance – likely an area price might react from once filled.
Supply Zones:
Upper Green Zone (~1.1400–1.1700): Price is currently reacting in this supply region.
Lower Green Zone (~1.1050): Previous structure and minor resistance.
SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity):
Marked at the blue demand zone (~0.9500–0.9800). The chart shows a long-term bearish projection toward this zone after a liquidity sweep.
📉 Projection Path:
Short-Term Bullish Move to the OB / BSL zone.
Liquidity Sweep above the highs.
Reversal from the OB zone.
Bearish Trend Continuation breaking below recent structure.
Final Target: Long-term drop toward SSL at 0.9500–0.9800 zone.
⚠️ Bias:
Short-Term: Bullish until OB is hit.
Long-Term: Bearish after liquidity sweep and OB rejection.
EURUSDPrice is still likely to go higher as the dxy is still bearish, and most likely because there is a supply zone and liquidity resting above, but any day this week/next week price can fall hard as monthly is bearish
The Day Ahead Major Economic Data:
US:
ISM Manufacturing (June) and JOLTS job openings (May) – Key for Fed rate cut outlook.
Construction spending and vehicle sales – Insight into economic strength.
Dallas Fed services – Regional business sentiment check.
China:
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June) – Watch for signs of continued slowdown.
Japan:
Tankan Survey (Q2) – Key business sentiment data; may influence BoJ policy.
Eurozone:
June CPI (inflation) – Crucial for ECB’s rate path.
Germany unemployment, Italy PMI, budget, and car sales – Regional economic health indicators.
Central Bank Highlights:
ECB Sintra Forum Panel:
Features Powell (Fed), Lagarde (ECB), Ueda (BoJ), Bailey (BoE).
Markets will watch for any policy shift signals or divergence in rate outlooks.
Other ECB Speakers:
Guindos, Schnabel, Elderson – may give more hints on inflation and rate moves.
ECB Consumer Survey:
Offers insight into household inflation expectations.
Market View:
US data may push Fed closer to rate cuts if weak.
Eurozone inflation will guide ECB stance.
China’s PMI is a global growth signal.
Central bank talks at Sintra are key for global rate outlook.
Overall:
Markets are on edge awaiting clarity on growth, inflation, and rate paths. Expect possible moves in FX, yields, and equities depending on the data and central bank tone.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 1, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today:
01.07 16:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
01.07 16:30 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks
01.07 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI
EUR/USD is trading in negative territory near 1.1790 in the early European session on Tuesday. The US dollar (USD) is weakening against the euro (EUR) amid growing budget concerns and uncertainty surrounding trade deals.
Four people familiar with the negotiations said US President Donald Trump's administration is seeking to phase in deals with the most involved countries as they rush to reach an agreement by the July 9 deadline. Uncertainty over trade agreements continued to weigh on sentiment and sell the US dollar.
Investors are concerned about the US Senate's attempts to pass Trump's tax and spending cuts bill, which faces intra-party disagreement over a projected $3.3 trillion increase in the national debt. Fiscal concerns have dampened optimism and contributed to the decline in the US dollar. This, in turn, serves as a tailwind for the major pair.
German inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), eased to 2.0% y/y in June from 2.1% in the previous reading. The figure was below expectations of 2.2%.
On a month-on-month basis, HICP rose 0.1% in June vs. 0.2% previously, below the market consensus forecast of 0.3%. Softer-than-expected German inflation data may limit near-term growth.
Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1795, SL 1.1725, TP 1.1880
EURUSD OUTLOOKLooking for a bullish move price has been strongly bullish.I desire price to come to lower demands
Still longPullback to the broken level of resistance has happened already... which is the green lines on the bottom Take profits at the 300 fib level the orange lines on top which is the next level of resistance
Wave 5 is here... but are buyers about to get trapped1D Timeframe (Main Chart)
✅ Elliott Wave Count:
Wave 1–2–3–4–5 structure is clearly marked.
Wave 5 seems to be completing near the upper trendline, aligning with potential C wave of a larger correction.
🔺 Key Zones:
Buyer zone highlighted under Wave 4 – indicating strong demand before Wave 5 push.
Resistance from the descending trendline just above Wave 5 – potential reversal/sell area.
Price region near 1.1757–1.1835 marked as a potential exhaustion zone.
---
🕒 4H Timeframe (Inset Chart)
📈 Current Price:
Trading around 1.1755, approaching the resistance cluster (1.1757–1.1835).
🔻 Potential Scenarios:
1. Immediate Sell-Off:
If Wave 5 has completed, expect a retracement back to previous demand zones (around 1.1683, 1.1446, or even 1.1362).
2. Final Push Up:
If minor Wave 5 isn't finished yet, price could test the 1.1833–1.1853 area before reversing.
EUR/USD Analysis – June 29, 2025The US dollar hasn't seen such a significant decline against the euro in the past three years.
Just moments ago, EUR/USD broke above the 1.17 level, pushing into a new high.
📈 Looking at the chart, there’s a clear bullish momentum, especially impressive for a typically cautious pair like EUR/USD.
To be honest, I wasn’t expecting this much upside in the current time window —
but the ongoing strength doesn’t look like it’s going to fade easily either.
⚠️ If you're considering a counter-trend trade,
a potential short could be taken around the 1.165 area,
provided there’s a solid closing signal, targeting the 1.150 demand zone.
📌 Still, both mid-term and long-term structure remain bullish,
and a better buy setup may come around the 1.148 level.
EUR/USD BUY IDEA - SMT WITH GBPHere's my analysis , let me share my A+ set up with you :
1 - WAIT ON ASIA LOW SWEEP WITH EUR / USD
2 - WE WILL POTENTIALLY HAVE A SMT WITH GBP USD IF WE SWEEP ASIA LOW
3 - WAIT ON BOS + FVG IN 5 MIN TIME FRAME
4 - TARGET PREVIOUS WEEK HIGH AS DRAW ON LIQUIDITY
This is what I see happening . After full take profit, we will have our new Weekly Protected High I believe and from there we can start targeting Sellside Liquidity .
I hope you enjoyed the analysis , I will post updates during the day .
Talk to you guys soon ! =D
EURUSD M15 Buy signal intradayTechnical:
1. Bullish FVG
2. False Breakdown
3. Bullish Reaction
Fundamental:
- neutral-bullish
EURUSD Will Go Higher From Support! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.172.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.177 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Buy setup TiqGpt1D Timeframe: The daily chart shows a strong bullish momentum with a series of green candles indicating a clear uptrend. This suggests institutional buying pressure and a lack of significant sell-side resistance.
4H Timeframe: The 4-hour chart presents a more consolidated view with price action oscillating around the 1.17200 level. This could indicate a phase of distribution or accumulation as institutions prepare for the next significant move.
1H Timeframe: The hourly chart shows a similar consolidation pattern with slight bullish bias as evidenced by the recent green candles. This could be a preparation phase before a potential liquidity sweep.
15M Timeframe: The 15-minute chart shows more volatility with price testing both higher and lower bounds around the central consolidation zone. This indicates active trading and potential setup for stop hunts.
5M Timeframe: On the 5-minute chart, there is a visible decline, suggesting a potential liquidity grab as price dips below the consolidation zone, possibly trapping late retail sellers.
1M Timeframe: The 1-minute chart shows a sharp drop followed by a quick recovery, indicative of a stop hunt or liquidity sweep, confirming the potential trap seen on the 5-minute chart.
INSTITUTIONAL THESIS:
Institutions appear to be in a phase of accumulation after a liquidity sweep, particularly visible on the lower timeframes. The recent sharp movements on the 1-minute and 5-minute charts suggest a trapping of retail positions, setting the stage for a potential bullish continuation.
LEARNING POINT:
"1M and 5M liquidity sweep and trapping of retail sellers before potential bullish continuation."
ELLIOTT WAVE EURUSD H4 update
EW Trade Set Up H4
minuette W4 ended, w5 running
with the decisive break of the 1.1570 level, wave 4 can be declared finished and wave 5 is underway in motive way. Not clear yet the type of motive wave impulsive or diagonal.
daily key levels (area)
1.1732
1.1715 POC
1.1690
EURUSD – June 30th OutlookBias: Still bullish
Liquidity zone pullback: 1.16853 held as expected
Next move: Watching for break of Friday's high at 1.17342 → possible retest of 1.17311 → continuation upward
HRHR Setup: If price returns to 1.16853 today, it's a high risk play due to end-of-month volatility
Caution: If we break below the previous 4H candle, we could range between 1.17342 and 1.16853 for the remainder of the day.
🔹 Approach with caution — it’s the final trading day of the month.
eurusd 1hEURUSD – 1H Demand Zone (Outside the Range)
EURUSD is currently trading within a clear consolidation range. However, a 1H demand zone has formed outside the current range, indicating potential for a breakout-retest scenario. This demand lies below the consolidation structure, making it a set-and-forget style entry if price sweeps liquidity and returns to this zone.
