Get started

U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals Economic Calendar

USDEUX trade ideas

EUR/USD TECHNICALS INTACT AS ECB AND U.S. DATA SET STAGE FOR VOLWith just minutes to go before the European Central Bank (ECB) announces its highly anticipated rate decision, market participants are maintaining a cautious stance. The EUR/USD pair remains relatively calm, reflecting a wait-and-see approach ahead of the official release. According to broad market consensus, the ECB is expected to implement a 25-basis point rate cut. This move would bring the key deposit rate down to 2.00% and 2.15% main refinancing rate, in response to the eurozone's recent disinflation trend. Following the rate announcement, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to hold a press conference, during which she is expected to provide detailed insights into the reasons behind the committee’s decision. Investors and analysts alike will closely scrutinize her statement for forward guidance particularly any indication of whether today’s cut is a one-off adjustment or part of a broader easing strategy going into the second half of 2025. On the other hand, U.S job report would be on the wire tomorrow by 4:30PM GMT +4, this data point also has the tendency to cause market volatility and as such, traders are advised to pay close attention. The pair has been trending upward on the 4-hour timeframe, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows while consistently respecting its ascending trendline and above EMA 50. Price is currently facing resistance around 1.1439, as traders await the next major catalyst, the ECB rate decision. LEVELS TO WATCH OUT: If the bullish momentum continues, a brake above 1.1439 would potentially target 1.1481 and 1.1547 according to analyst. On the flipside, if sellers’ step in and pushes prices down, a break below 1.1411, would potentially target towards 1.1367 which would have served as break of the trendline and then potentially tank to 1.1229 according to analyst. Breakout of these levels are not ruled out.
by CFI
Mr. Wave Says... It’s Time for the Last Push!”[ b] EUR/USD is forming a clean Elliott Wave structure — and guess what? We’re at Wave 4 consolidation, and Wave 5 is about to explode upward! 🔍 Here's what we're seeing: ✅ Wave 1 to 3 already confirmed with solid impulse ✅ Wave 4 found support near previous breakout zone 🎯 Target: Upper supply zone where Wave 5 is likely to terminate 🔔 This isn’t the time to sleep on the charts. Mr. Wave is literally pointing to the target zone — and we’re not ignoring it. 😉 --- 🧠 Pro tip: Use tight risk management, ride the final push of the motive wave, and watch for reversal signals in the supply zone. --- 📌 #GreenFireForex #ElliottWave #Wave5 #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #EURUSDSetup #ForexReel #WaveTheory #SupplyZone #ForexSignal #SmartTrading
by Greenfireforex
EURUSD FORECAST FY25 TIDES TURNINGi dont usually do forex unless its big yields like this the concerning kind im bearish on dxy so im going to take the time to call out what i see i believe the us is in over its head and might jus transition to crypto as their legal tender to save themselves global de dollarisation sentiment (geopolitical tensions and sanctions have proven how dollar can be a liability) national debt cant keep playing jenga with that inflation might just respike with how they want to print more while cutting interest rates while still not having dropped it to the 2% target nations like japan suffered from the covid stimulus nobody will repeat that mistake they will divert their dollar assets into something else like gold not enough tho maybe euros id need to research into their holdings but i wont be suprised if nations dropping dollar instruments its all just strategic for economic resilience looking out for number 1 japan is a loco one they shot rates up 17% from nowhere bro spontaneous
Long
by Bekiumuzi_Dube
EURUSD Volatility Alert - ECB Rate Decision/US Non-farm PayrollsEURUSD has experienced a choppy start to the week so far. Initially trading from opening levels around 1.1345 up to a 6-week high of 1.1455 early Tuesday morning, before running into profit taking and then bouncing between these two levels in response to various drivers, including updates on US/China trade discussions, Eurozone inflation, US economy ,and constantly changing interest rate differentials. Looking forward, there may be potential for this type of price action to continue over the next two trading days, as traders first digest the ECB interest rate decision, which is released at 1315 BST later today, then the comments of ECB President Lagarde in the press conference that commences at 1345 BST. A 25bps (0.25%) interest rate cut from the ECB is fully anticipated, so is unlikely to cause much of a stir. However, comments from Madame Lagarde in the press conference could lead to volatile EURUSD price action, depending on if she outlines whether policymakers remain open to further cuts, as Eurozone inflation (May CPI 1.9% YoY) moves below the central bank’s 2% target, or if now is the time for a pause to assess the potential impact of US tariffs and future European defence/infrastructure spending. On Friday, the dollar side of the EURUSD currency pair, could be impacted significantly by the outcome of the latest update on the US labour market in the form of the US Non-farm Payrolls release at 1330 BST. Data out earlier in the week has so far offered a mixed assessment of the US labour market during the on-going trade tariff uncertainty. However this payrolls update is the one that usually grabs the attention of traders and investors and probably holds more significance. Their focus is likely to be on the direction of the unemployment rate (currently 4.2%) and average hourly earnings, where any large deviation from market expectations may see EURUSD volatility increase into the weekend, especially if it indicates a weakness in the US economy. Technical Update: Today’s ECB announcement, followed by payrolls on Friday, has the potential to be the next important EURUSD sentiment driver, with the reaction to these events possibly offering clues to the next path for price activity. It has already been an impressive recovery in EURUSD since the May 12th session low at 1.1065, a move that has now seen closing breaks above resistance at 1.1425, which is equal to the April 28th last recovery failure high. However, as we approach the ECB decision and payrolls release, what are the potential support and resistance levels traders may be watching? Potential Resistance Levels: Price strength so far this week has been capped by sellers at 1.1455 on June 3rd. As such, this level represents a first possible resistance focus, as having found sellers at this point previously, they may be found again. While breaks above the 1.1455 high will not guarantee continued price strength, it could open potential for an upside push in price towards the April 21st high 1.1573, possibly further, if this were to give way on a closing basis. Potential Support Levels: After a period of price strength, such as that seen since the May 12th low, it is potentially the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the upside move, which in EURUSD stands at 1.1306, that may be viewed as a first support. As such, if breaks below 1.1306 are seen over coming sessions, it may lead to a deeper decline in price towards 1.1214, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, possibly further. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 5, 2025 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair is trading cautiously, slightly above the key level of 1.14000 during Thursday's Asian trading session. The major currency pair is expected to remain in a sideways trend as investors await the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision. The ECB is almost certain to cut its key lending rates by 25 basis points (bps), bringing the deposit rate and the main refinancing rate to 2% and 2.15%, respectively. This will be the ECB's seventh consecutive interest rate cut and the eighth since June last year, when it began its cycle of monetary expansion. Traders are increasingly confident of a seventh consecutive ECB interest rate cut as deflationary trends persist in the eurozone. Preliminary data from the eurozone's harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) released on Tuesday showed that inflationary pressure fell below the central bank's 2% target. With the Fed widely expected to cut interest rates, investors will be watching ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference closely for clues on likely monetary policy in the second half of the year. Market participants would also like to hear about the progress of trade negotiations with the US. Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) is struggling to stay near a six-week low as weak US data has reignited stagflation risks. The ISM Services PMI unexpectedly declined in May, while its components showed that production costs continue to rise rapidly. ADP employment change data, which reflects labor demand in the private sector, showed that 37,000 new jobs were created in May, the lowest figure since February 2021. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.14100, SL 1.14400, TP 1.13600
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURO/USD significant price move or breakout.1. Support and Supply Zones: SUPPORT zone is marked in green at the bottom, around the 1.0400–1.0600 level. SUPPLY zone is labeled and marked slightly above the March price action (mid-chart). 2. CHoCH (Change of Character): Marked on the chart to indicate a potential trend reversal or significant shift in market sentiment (typically when a previous high/low is broken in the opposite direction). 3. NE (New Entry or New Expansion): Marked near a price peak, possibly indicating a significant price move or breakout. 4. Channel: A bullish ascending channel is drawn where the price was moving upward within parallel trendlines. 5. Projected Movement: A forecast is shown with an arrow pointing upward inside a green and red box: Green area = Target/Profit zone Red area = Stop loss zone The forecast suggests a bullish move after a potential consolidation. 6. Date/Time: X-axis ends in June and shows historical price movement from early 2025 (around January–April). Current chart time (bottom right) is 04:51:38 UTC. Trading Sentiment The chart indicates a bullish sentiment on EUR/USD, expecting price to: Hold above the support Break or continue through CHoCH Possibly reach the target zone near 1.1600–1.1800
Long
by Johnson67
Can it stabilize above 1.14?The euro against the US dollar traded in a narrow range during the North American session, with the current exchange rate consolidating near the 1.14 level as the market awaits the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision this Thursday. In the US, the ADP employment data far missed expectations, with private sector employment increasing by only 37,000 in May—significantly below the market forecast of 115,000. This weak data triggered a decline in the US dollar, pushing the EUR/USD exchange rate to rebound to the 1.1400 zone. While the exchange rate is expected to continue its rebound momentum, its upside potential remains limited. If the key resistance level of 1.1418 is effectively broken, it could open the door for further upward movement to the 1.1450-1.1480 range. Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Long
by Ashbur
EURUSD is moving within the 1.13230 - 1.14550 range👉🏼Possible scenario: The euro (EUR) dropped 0.64% vs. the U.S. dollar (USD) on June 3 after eurozone inflation missed estimates, rising just 1.9% YoY in May vs. the expected 2%. The softer print boosted bets on a 25 bps ECB rate cut this week, likely the last before a pause. The OECD also cut its global growth forecast, citing rising trade tensions and inflation risks. It now sees GDP slowing from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% by 2026. On June 4, EURUSD held steady in early trading. Attention shifts to key U.S. data: ADP Employment (12:15 p.m. UTC) and ISM Services PMI (2:00 p.m. UTC). Strong results may pressure EURUSD lower; weak numbers could push it toward 1.1450. ✅Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.13230 Resistance level is located at 1.14550
by MaxOnMarkets
EURUSD – June 4, 2025Yesterday saw a deeper-than-expected pullback after price broke above the 1.14149 zone. Despite the retrace, structure remains bullish with price staying inside the ascending 4H channel. We’re now reapproaching 1.14149 again — a critical level for direction. To play it safe, I will only look for buys above yesterday’s high at 1.14443. Overall target remains 1.16020 and 1.18791 short to mid-term. Key Buy Zones: Safe Buys: Above 1.14443 Next target: 1.16020 Long-term target: 1.18791 ⚠️ Staying flat if 1.14149 fails.
Long
by Thetraderscollective
Euro-dollar might retreat depending on dataThe euro reversed most of Monday’s gains against the dollar after slightly weaker flash inflation than expected at 1.9%, raising further expectations of a single cut by the ECB on 5 June. The ECB’s press conference might give some clues on how the bank perceives potential downside risks to inflation later this year. Friday’s NFP is a key release in the context of a generally resilient job market over the last few months. The medium-term uptrend on the daily chart seems to be quite mature and volume has dropped significantly compared to the first half of April while the price has remained overbought or close to it from the slow stochastic, so the probability of euro-dollar declining or settling into a sideways trend seems to be higher now. That depends on upcoming news, though. If the ECB seems more hawkish and the NFP is significantly disappointing, there might be another round of gains. $1.15 is the main area of resistance in focus as April’s highs and just above the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement. $1.10 will probably be a strong support but before that the interaction of the 50 SMA from Bands and the 61.8% monthly Fibo might challenge further losses. It’s important to monitor the initial reactions to both the ECB and the NFP for a better idea about ongoing direction. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
Euro Pulls Back – Eyes on ECB and Tariff TurmoilCMCMARKETS:EURUSD FX:EURUSD EUR/USD pulled back from a six-week high of 1.1454 to trade near 1.1379, down 0.52% on Tuesday, as strong U.S. labor market data and revived trade tensions lifted the dollar. April JOLTS job openings rose to 7.39M, beating expectations, signaling a resilient U.S. economy despite a 3.7% drop in factory orders. In parallel, Trump’s announcement to double tariffs on steel and aluminum has reignited trade war concerns. Markets are also watching for a potential Trump–Xi call later this week. Meanwhile, the Euro lost ground after May HICP inflation in the Eurozone fell to 1.9%, below the ECB’s 2% target. With core inflation slowing as well, markets have priced in a 25 bps rate cut at Thursday’s ECB meeting. Technically, OANDA:EURUSD EUR/USD is still trading within a rising channel but rejected key minor resistance zone just below the descending trendline. A confirmed breakout above this area could open the path toward monthly resistance near 1.1559. On the downside, Support Zone 1 (around 1.1375) must hold to maintain the bullish bias; further weakness may expose Support Zone 2 (around 1.1338) Resistance : 1.1445 , 1.1559 Support ： 1.1375 , 1.1338
Long
by ATFX_Global
Market next move Disruption of the Downtrend Analysis The chart currently suggests a bearish breakout with a downside target near 1.12900. Let’s challenge that: --- 🟩 Bullish Reversal Possibility 1. Support Zone Near 1.1370: Price has shown signs of stabilizing around the 1.1370 level. Multiple wicks below the candles suggest buyer interest at this level. 2. Low Volume on Recent Red Candles: A decreasing volume trend on recent red candles can indicate weak bearish momentum. Bulls may be waiting to enter on a breakout above the 1.1380–1.1390 zone. 3. Potential for Fakeout: The sharp expected drop might be a bear trap. If price breaks back above 1.1385 with strong volume, it could invalidate the bearish thesis. 4. RSI/Momentum Divergence (Assumed): If momentum indicators (not shown) display bullish divergence, this strengthens the case for a reversal
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals