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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD: Retesting Support – Preparing for the Next Jump?EURUSD remains in a clear uptrend on the 2H timeframe after breaking out of the previous resistance zone. However, after touching the upward trendline, price faced slight rejection and now shows signs of a short-term technical correction. Technical Analysis: The price is moving within an ascending channel and recently touched the resistance area around 1.14500. Currently, a short-term corrective pattern is forming, which may lead to a retest of the support zone around 1.12831 (confluence with the EMA34 and previous demand area). If the 1.12831 support holds → a small inverse head-and-shoulders pattern may complete → triggering a bounce toward the next resistance around 1.15908. News Impact: Although this is a EURUSD chart, gold is also benefiting from news that President Trump announced new tariffs on China and other countries, fueling fears of a trade war. This puts pressure on the USD and supports alternative assets like gold and the euro.
Long
by KEY_123
EUR/USD – 1H TimeframeChart Review (EUR/USD – 1H Timeframe): This chart appears to follow a clear Elliott Wave structure. The count shows that wave (2) has completed, and we are now progressing through a strong impulsive wave (3). Within wave (3), sub-waves 1 and 2 are labeled, with wave 3 in progress. The internal structure of wave 3 is unfolding nicely, with smaller-degree waves (i), (ii), and (iii) already formed, and a corrective (iv) in red currently completing. The recent correction seems to follow an A-B-C structure, where wave a and b are complete and wave c may be nearing its end, signaling the end of wave (iv). If this count holds, a continuation to the upside in wave (v) of (iii) is expected next, potentially pushing EUR/USD higher toward the 1.1500–1.1700 area as projected on the chart. The bullish momentum remains intact as long as the price stays above the low of wave (iv). A break below that level would call for a reevaluation of the current count.
Long
by ew_17i
ECB decision shadowed by tariff risk Markets will be closely watching the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision on April 17, with expectations for a seventh consecutive rate cut. Despite this expectation, the euro surged to a three-year high against the US dollar last week, as traders continued to pull away from US assets. The dollar index has dropped 4% since President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements on April 2, falling below the key 100 level too. At this stage, market participants will be looking for any signals on how the ECB might respond to the potential spillover effects of President Trump’s tariff measures. While some guidance may emerge around already-announced policies, the risk of further unpredictability remains high. Trump being Trump, it is perhaps unlikely we have seen the last of his volatility-inducing tariff announcements. This can weigh further on the dollar, eroding confidence in the world’s reserve currency.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD – Bullish Breakout from Falling Wedge📈 EUR/USD – Bullish Breakout from Falling Wedge: Momentum Shift in Progress Timeframe: 1H (1-Hour Chart) Currency Pair: EUR/USD Date of Analysis: April 13, 2025 Market Type: Forex Spot Pattern: Falling Wedge (Reversal) Bias: Bullish Trade Style: Swing/Position Entry 🧠 Technical Context & Pattern Recognition: The EUR/USD has been under sustained bearish pressure, tracing a sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the recent high at ~1.0940. This selling pressure, however, began to weaken and consolidate into a Falling Wedge formation, typically recognized as a precursor to a bullish reversal. This wedge has formed with converging downward-sloping trendlines, where the lower boundary shows diminishing momentum from sellers, while buyers begin stepping in at increasingly higher levels, creating a compression zone. This is a textbook "coiling setup", often suggesting a market indecision that leads to a breakout once one side dominates — in this case, the bulls. 🔍 Detailed Structure Analysis: ✅ Upper Trendline (Resistance): Connects the swing highs at ~1.0890, ~1.0860, and ~1.0835 Downward sloping, forming the top boundary of the wedge ✅ Lower Trendline (Support): Connects the lower lows at ~1.0785, ~1.0775, and ~1.0760 Slightly steeper angle compared to the resistance line ✅ Apex & Compression: The range tightens as price coils into the apex This contraction hints at a volatility expansion phase to follow ✅ Volume Context (If Available): Volume tends to decrease during wedge development Breakout typically sees a spike in volume, confirming participation 🔔 Breakout Confirmation: Price breaks and closes above the upper wedge trendline at ~1.0830 Bullish candle with strong body signals buy-side control Retest of breakout area acts as new support, enhancing the setup's strength 🎯 Trade Setup & Scenario Planning: Setup Element Details Entry Zone 1.0830–1.0840 (post-breakout confirmation) Stop Loss (SL) 1.0760 (below wedge support and swing low) Take Profit 1 (TP1) 1.0995 – Near previous structural resistance Take Profit 2 (TP2) 1.1455 – Projected target (measured move) Risk-to-Reward Ratio Approx. 1:3+ (ideal for swing setups) 🧮 Measured Move Target Logic: Wedge Height: ~160 pips (1.0940 – 1.0780) Breakout Level: ~1.0830 Target Projection: 1.0830 + 160 = 1.0990–1.1000, with potential extension to 1.1455 🔑 Confluence & Supporting Evidence: Bullish Divergence on RSI (lower lows in price, higher lows in RSI) Breakout occurs at a key psychological zone near 1.0800 Support zone retest = high-confidence re-entry point MACD crossover near the breakout zone (if applicable) Candlestick structure signals momentum shift (bullish engulfing/breakout bar) 🧭 Trader’s Mindset & Risk Notes: Use dynamic position sizing to manage risk (1–2% per trade) Ideal conditions for scaling into the trade after retest confirmation Be mindful of news events (ECB/US data) that could cause volatility Avoid chasing after the move if missed; wait for pullbacks or re-tests 📘 Conclusion: This Falling Wedge breakout on EUR/USD is a classic example of a reversal structure unfolding after trend exhaustion. Price action confirms the shift in momentum through a strong bullish breakout, offering traders a clean technical setup with favorable risk-reward. With confluence from RSI divergence, structure breakout, and clean trendline compression, this chart supports a bullish continuation narrative with near-term targets around 1.0995 and long-term potential towards 1.1455.
Long
by Royalfxsignal
EURUSD. Weekly trading levels 14 - 18.04.2025During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade. If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones. Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post. ! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading. The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :) ---------------------------------------------- I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade. Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat. Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern. More information in my RU profile. Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
by Forex_Hoby
EUR/USD Long📍 Entry (Buy Limit): 1.1085 This is just above the 1.1000 psychological level but below previous minor structure at 1.1100. Captures a shallow retest without risking being front-run by liquidity sweeps. 🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 1.0910 Below consolidation zone and wicks around 1.10 Provides enough space beneath the major breakout level while staying tight for R:R 🎯 Take Profit Targets: TP1: 1.1500 (Previous weekly resistance, already tested but not broken) TP2: 1.2000 (Next clean monthly structure level) TP3 (macro): 1.2400 (Upper range of long-term channel, highly reactive zone) ⚖️ Risk/Reward: Risk: ~175 pips Reward:  • TP1: ~415 pips  • TP2: ~915 pips  • TP3: ~1,315 pips R:R = 2.4 to 1, 5.2 to 1, 7.5 to 1
Long
by tradercat2025
EURUSD OUTLOOK APRIL 14 - 18EURUSD has been extremely bullish for the past few weeks and broke through some seemingly strong areas but in hindsight we see that fundamentals over powered technical areas. I see two ways of EU continuing it's upward move and that is to just continue pushing up at the start of the week or pullback into the FVG or Order block then after some sort of lower time frame confirmation, continue higher. At this moment I don't see any real bearish argument to be made aside from thee possible pullback. If that changes I will update my analysis.
Long
by Keyserfx
EURUSD - Ranges overview (update) Let's see how EURUSD moved in light of all the current situations and announcements. As previously discussed, we deviated from the sellside and closed back above it. For those who might have forgotten what is meant by 'deviation/deviating' - trading below or above a specific price point (buyside or sellside) and failing to close below or above the specific price point (buyside or sellside) but failed to close below the HTF sellside). We are currently heading towards our target of 1.1500. From there sighs on 1.21542. IF we fail to hold the current HTF sellside, expect us to retrace back down. This is a long term trade so PATIENCE will be key if you want to play it. Stay safe and never risk more than 1-5% of your capital per trade. The following analysis is merely a price action based analysis and does not constitute financial advice in any form.
by Patrick2707
EURUSD - Medium-term analysis of the euroThe weekly order flow is bearish and the daily is bullish. But let's take a closer look at the EUR from the monthly timeframe: On the monthly timeframe, the price has hit the middle of the swing structure and has also filled the FVG. Regardless of the seasonal tendencies that slightly favor the monthly bullish candle, on the weekly timeframe, the price has hit an order block last week and has gathered liquidity at equal levels below this order block. With all these interpretations and signs that I see, although the daily timeframe has bullish order flow, I think the price can move down from this point (unless Trump gets naughty) and and target external liquidity on March 26. I predict that the April monthly candle will close as a doji. Everything is indicated on the chart. This analysis will be updated in the future. Be profitable
Short
by alixjey
EU Tariff Relief Drives Euro Above $1.13The euro climbed above $1.13, its highest since September 2024, after the EU suspended new U.S. tariffs for 90 days to allow trade talks. This followed President Trump’s move to cut tariffs to 10% for non-retaliating countries while raising Chinese duties to 125%. While easing global slowdown fears, the mixed signals fueled uncertainty. Money markets adjusted ECB expectations, pricing the deposit rate at 1.8% by December, up from 1.65%, and lowered the probability of an April cut to 90%. Key resistance is at 1.1390, followed by 1.1425 and 1.1500. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1180, and 1.1100.
by ChartMage
EURUSD UPDATE FOR NEW TRADERS Let’s break down what’s happening with the Euro vs. US Dollar (EUR/USD) 📈 PRICE RIGHT NOW ➡️ EURUSD is trading at 1.13417, which means the Euro is gaining strength against the Dollar. ➡️ It’s up +1.28% and just entered a zone where many big traders are looking to sell (called a SUPPLY ZONE) at around 1.12020 – 1.13980. ⚠️ WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU The EURUSD is getting ready to move — maybe sharply. Today (April 11), there’s important news coming from both Europe and the U.S. that could shake up the market. 🗓️ BIG NEWS TO WATCH TODAY Here’s what’s on the calendar and how it could affect your trade: ECB President Speaking (2:45 AM PT) If she sounds confident about Europe’s economy, the Euro could go up even more If not, it may drop. Inflation Report (PPI) (5:30 AM PT) If prices in the U.S. are rising fast, the Dollar could get stronger. That could make EURUSD go down. Consumer Sentiment & Fed Speeches (7:00–8:30 AM PT) If Americans are feeling positive about the economy if Fed speakers hint at raising interest rates, the Dollar could jump. 🎯 WHAT TO DO AS A TRADER If you're already in a SELL trade near 1.12020, you’re in the right zone — just be careful of price spiking toward 1.13980 before dropping. Your next target to take profit is around 1.08289, which is where price might pull back to. If price goes above 1.14948, it could mean the SELL setup failed — that’s your STOP LOSS zone . ✅ SIMPLE GAME PLAN Watch the news today! Big moves may happen during or after these reports. Hold your position if the news supports your trade. Close your trade or move your stop if the news goes against you. If you're unsure, this is a great time to sit back, watch the market react, and learn.
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
EUR/USD: Pivotal Week AheadHello, FX:EURUSD faces a busy week ahead with several key events: the upcoming German elections, US CPI data, German GDP news, and an ECB speech by Schnabel. If the price follows the current trend, we could see further gains. Conversely, if conditions worsen, a reversal is possible. Despite occasional setbacks, the euro is steadily gaining strength over the long term. For the euro to reach 1.12, the one-year pivot point needs to act as support; if it instead becomes resistance, the pair could see significant downside, potentially testing the 0.98692 level. The support (green) and resistance (red) levels shown represent the current key zones for this pair across timeframes from 1 day to 1 year. No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
FX Liquidity 'Worse Than Covid' Amid Tariff Shock. Long EUR/USD?Liquidity Seizes Up: Dealers Report Conditions 'Worse Than Covid' Amid Tariff Turmoil The intricate plumbing of the global foreign exchange market, typically the world's deepest and most liquid financial arena, experienced a severe blockage in recent days, with dealers reporting liquidity conditions even more challenging than during the peak of the Covid-19 crisis in early 2020. Triggered by the sudden announcement of potential sweeping tariffs by former US President Donald Trump, the ability to execute large trades without significantly moving prices evaporated, creating treacherous conditions for market participants before a temporary pause on the tariff implementation offered a brief respite. Reports indicate that available liquidity for a single transaction, or "clip," in major currency pairs plummeted to lows around $20 million. While this figure might still sound substantial, it represents a dramatic reduction from the norms in the multi-trillion dollar-a-day spot FX market, where clips of $50 million, $100 million, or even more could typically be absorbed with minimal market impact, especially in benchmark pairs like EUR/USD. This liquidity drought occurred paradoxically alongside a spike in overall trading volumes. Both algorithmic trading systems and human traders on principal desks were highly active, reacting to the news flow and heightened volatility. However, this surge in activity masked a fundamental deterioration in market quality. High volume accompanied by low liquidity signifies frantic, often smaller, trades occurring across widening bid-ask spreads, with market makers unwilling or unable to provide firm quotes for substantial sizes. It's the market equivalent of a crowded room where everyone is shouting, but no one is willing to make a firm commitment. Why 'Worse Than Covid'? Unpacking Dealer Sentiment The comparison to the Covid-19 crisis is stark and revealing. The initial wave of the pandemic in March 2020 caused unprecedented volatility across all asset classes as the world grappled with lockdowns and economic shutdowns. FX liquidity certainly suffered then, with spreads widening dramatically. However, dealers suggest the current environment, driven by tariff uncertainty, felt different, and arguably worse, for several reasons: 1. Nature of the Shock: Covid-19, while devastating, was primarily a health crisis with economic consequences. Central banks globally responded with massive, coordinated liquidity injections and policy easing, providing a clear backstop (even if the initial shock was severe). The tariff announcement, however, represents a political and policy shock. Its potential impact is multifaceted – affecting inflation, growth, supply chains, corporate earnings, and international relations – and far harder to model. The policy path forward, including potential retaliation from other countries, is deeply uncertain. 2. Central Bank Reaction Function: During Covid, the playbook for central banks was relatively clear: provide liquidity and ease financial conditions. In response to potential tariffs, the central bank reaction is much less certain. Tariffs could be inflationary (raising import costs), potentially pushing central banks towards tighter policy, while simultaneously being negative for growth, which might argue for easing. This ambiguity makes it harder for markets to price in a predictable policy response, adding another layer of uncertainty that dampens risk appetite and liquidity provision. 3. Fundamental Uncertainty vs. Panic: While Covid induced panic, the underlying driver was identifiable. The tariff threat introduces deep uncertainty about the fundamental rules of global trade. This makes it exceptionally difficult for market makers, who provide liquidity, to price risk accurately. When risk becomes unquantifiable, the natural reaction is to withdraw, reduce quote sizes, and widen spreads significantly to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a large, unhedged position. The Tariff Trigger: A Wrench in the Works Donald Trump's proposal for a "reciprocal" or blanket tariff system, potentially starting at 10% on all imports with higher rates for specific countries, fundamentally challenges the existing global trade framework. The announcement immediately forced market participants to reassess: • Inflation Outlook: Tariffs directly increase the cost of imported goods, potentially fueling inflation and impacting interest rate expectations. • Economic Growth: Trade wars can disrupt supply chains, raise business costs, reduce export competitiveness (due to retaliation), and dampen consumer and business confidence, weighing on growth. • Currency Valuations: Currencies of countries heavily reliant on exports to the US, or those potentially facing steep retaliatory tariffs, came under pressure. The US dollar itself experienced volatility as markets weighed the inflationary impact against the potential growth slowdown and risk-aversion flows. This complex interplay of factors, combined with the political uncertainty surrounding the implementation and potential scope of such policies, created a perfect storm for volatility. Algorithmic systems, programmed based on historical correlations and data, struggled to navigate a potential regime shift driven by policy pronouncements. Human traders, facing heightened risk and uncertainty, became more cautious. Liquidity providers, facing the risk of being adversely selected (i.e., only trading when the market is about to move sharply against them), drastically reduced their exposure. The Impact: Beyond the Trading Desks The evaporation of liquidity has real-world consequences: • Increased Transaction Costs: Corporates needing to hedge currency exposure for international trade face higher costs (wider spreads). • Execution Risk: Asset managers rebalancing global portfolios find it harder and more expensive to execute large trades, potentially suffering significant slippage (the difference between the expected execution price and the actual price). • Systemic Risk: In highly leveraged markets, poor liquidity can exacerbate sell-offs. Margin calls, as reportedly seen alongside the tariff news, can force leveraged players to liquidate positions rapidly into an illiquid market, potentially triggering a domino effect. The temporary pause in the tariff implementation announced subsequently provided some relief, likely allowing liquidity to recover partially from the extreme lows. However, the underlying uncertainty hasn't disappeared. Until there is greater clarity on the future direction of US trade policy, the FX market is likely to remain susceptible to bouts of nervousness and reduced liquidity. Should You Long EUR/USD Based on This? A Cautious No. While the liquidity situation is dire and reflects significant market stress, using poor FX liquidity itself as a primary reason to take a directional view, such as longing EUR/USD, is generally flawed logic. Here's why: 1. Liquidity is Not Direction: Market liquidity reflects the ease and cost of transacting, not necessarily the fundamental direction of an asset price. Poor liquidity is a symptom of high volatility, uncertainty, and risk aversion. While these factors can influence currency direction (e.g., risk aversion often benefits perceived safe-haven currencies), the liquidity state itself isn't the driver. Both buyers and sellers face the same poor liquidity. 2. Universal Impact: The reported liquidity crunch affected the global spot FX market. While specific pairs might have been hit harder at times, the underlying issue was broad-based risk aversion and dealer pullback, impacting EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and others. It doesn't inherently favor the Euro over the Dollar. 3. Focus on Fundamentals and Sentiment: A decision to long EUR/USD should be based on a broader analysis of: o Relative Monetary Policy: Expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) versus the US Federal Reserve (Fed). o Economic Outlook: Growth prospects in the Eurozone versus the United States. o Risk Sentiment: Is the broader market mood risk-on (often favoring EUR) or risk-off (which can sometimes favor USD, though the tariff news complicated this)? o Tariff Impact Analysis: How would the proposed tariffs, if implemented, differentially impact the Eurozone and US economies? Would potential EU retaliation harm the US more, or vice-versa? 4. Increased Trading Risk: Poor liquidity makes any trade riskier and more expensive. Spreads are wider, meaning entry and exit costs are higher. Slippage on stop-loss orders or take-profit orders is more likely. Executing large sizes is challenging. Therefore, even if you have a strong fundamental view to long EUR/USD, the current liquidity environment makes executing and managing that trade significantly more difficult and costly. Conclusion The recent seizure in FX liquidity, reportedly surpassing the severity seen during the Covid crisis onset, underscores the market's extreme sensitivity to geopolitical and policy uncertainty. The threat of sweeping tariffs injected a level of unpredictability that forced liquidity providers to retreat, even amidst high trading volumes. While the temporary pause offers breathing room, the fragility remains. For traders, this environment demands heightened caution, smaller position sizes, and wider stop-losses. Critically, basing directional trades like longing EUR/USD solely on the state of market liquidity is misguided. Such decisions must stem from a thorough analysis of economic fundamentals, policy outlooks, and risk sentiment, while acknowledging that poor liquidity significantly raises the cost and risk of executing any strategy.
by bryandowningqln
EUR/USD Breaks the Rules: Rising Euro Defies Falling YieldsEUR/USD is rising despite a falling 10Y yield differential, signaling a divergence from typical rate-driven behavior. This move is likely fueled by expectations of Fed rate cuts due to soft U.S. economic data, a recovering Eurozone trade surplus, and broader macro flows like de-dollarization and geopolitical tensions. Tariff risks and speculative positioning are also driving capital toward the euro, overriding yield-based fundamentals for now
by youbicode
Long Trade 1Hr TF overview ✅ Trade Breakdown – Buy-Side (EUR/USD) 📅 Date: Thursday, April 10, 2025 ⏰ Time: 4.00 AM (New York Time) – Tokyo to LND Session AM 📈 Pair: EUR/USD 📈 Trade Direction: Buy (Long) Trade Parameters: Entry: 1.10245 Take Profit (TP): 1.11064 (+0.74%) Stop Loss (SL): 1.10027 (–0.20%) Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 3.76 Price tapping into a discounted demand zone, aiming to ride the NY session continuation into a liquidity target above prior session highs
Long
by davidjulien369