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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR/USD: What to Expect - Trump vs FED!The EUR/USD has recently shown a recovery phase after reaching the late-September high near 1.1150 last Thursday, initially supported by the weakness of the US dollar following fears of stagflation in the United States, fueled by tariff announcements from President Trump. However, the scenario changed rapidly after the release of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data and Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday. Employment data showed NFP growth in line with expectations, but also an increase in the unemployment rate, signaling a less solid labor market than anticipated. During his speech, Powell expressed concerns about the resilience of the US economy, highlighting the risk of an economic slowdown while at the same time reiterating the focus on inflation, maintaining a cautious approach regarding further monetary easing policies. From a technical perspective, the chart shows that the area around 1.0980-1.1000 represents a crucial zone to assess the sustainability of the bullish trend. A daily close above this level could trigger a new upward push towards the highs of 1.1100 and subsequently 1.1150, especially if supported by further signs of dollar weakness or positive European economic data. If the EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.1000, we could see a pullback towards the support at 1.0950 and subsequently 1.0900. The critical support area on the chart is identified between 1.0360 and 1.0280, and a break below these levels would indicate a significant change in market sentiment.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Elliott Wave Outlook (Wave C in Progress?)Key Technical Zones: Demand Zone: 0.9750 – 1.0350 (Support from Wave B low) Supply Zone: 1.1600 – 1.2000 (Potential Wave C target) Current Price: 1.0959 Support Levels: 1.0730, 1.0350 Resistance Levels: 1.1250, 1.1600 Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact for Wave C as long as the pair holds above 1.0730. Any deeper pullback into the demand zone could still be part of a healthy correction, offering long opportunities on confirmation. Keep an eye on macroeconomic data, especially from the U.S. (FOMC, CPI) and EU (ECB stance), as they may heavily influence EUR/USD sentiment in the coming weeks. Conclusion: Watch for bullish continuation setups toward the supply zone, but remain cautious of a mid-term rejection pattern, which could trigger a deeper correction. Trade safely, and always use proper risk management. Current Scenario: Price is now trading near 1.0950, suggesting a potential Wave C rally in progress. If Wave C unfolds as anticipated, EUR/USD could approach the supply zone marked between 1.1600–1.2000, which aligns with previous structural resistance and Fibonacci retracement levels. However, a false breakout or early rejection from current levels could lead to a sharp retracement, possibly retesting the demand zone before any major upside continuation.
by Greenfireforex
Bearish Reversal Incoming? Key Resistance Holds as Price StallsAfter analyzing multiple timeframes, we observe that the price has surged significantly and is now trading within a key resistance zone. The resistance remains strong, and the RSI across multiple timeframes is in the extreme overbought territory, showing bearish divergences. Additionally, despite the sharp rally, the price has not undergone any meaningful correction. Considering these factors—strong resistance, the proximity to a weekly trendline, extreme overbought conditions, and bearish divergence—along with the presence of a hanging man candlestick at resistance, a correction is likely. Our correction targets are the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.
Short
by SpicyPips
A r*tards ideaI'm a noob in these markets so take what I say with a grain of salt. I personally think it's a good idea but look at the one hour for the euro we had a pinball candle I think that's what there called but when that happens it tells us sellers couldn't hold there ground hense the green candle on the hourly. Therefore I believe the trend will continue. Hopefully I'm right, I have a lot of data backing me up with the bullish continuation. Happy trading everyone
Long
by christiansmithtrades
1
EURUSD April 4 Short trade reviewEURUSD April 4 Short trade review Some of the cleanest price action I have seen. Asia Price is consolidating in a premium on .618. 22:00 macro price takes minor buy side dips down and creates equal lows. 23:00 macro price rally to the 15M FVG. Takes buy side liquidity and in a FVG PD array and above .79 level. London Price is in a deep premium and I suspected price would seek lower prices to rebalance inefficiencies 1:30 price takes liquidity, PD ray in premium FVG This begins the hunt to see if the model 2022 will present itself. *inside macro time *model 2022 candle formation swing low violated that creates a FVG *expected expansion to lower prices as a target *entry 2 macro 1 target 50 level, 2 target FVG, 3 target second FVG Great delivery for 88 pips
by LeanLena
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 4, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Euro has experienced a notable increase, surpassing resistance levels at 1.086 and 1.095 in the current trading session, thereby completing the Inner Currency Rally of 1.114. However, an intermediate price reversal has been observed, suggesting that the Eurodollar will continue to decline towards the support level at 1.090, with a potential extension down to 1.075. An upward momentum could emerge from either of these support levels.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD Asian London Session Sell Recap I have drawn a resistance or demand zone with the red box to show yesterday's sell off during the Asian and London sessions. You can see some of the price action matching with the technical indicators. There was some moderate news yesterday that was forecasted as slightly volatile at 1:00 am Vancouver time, regarding the EUR. This news was regarding the ECB's De Guindos Speaking. Thank you please follow me for more market analysis. @ilyaskhan.1994
by ilyaskhan1994
EURUSD April 3 Hindsight Study EURUSD Hindsight Study April 3 Analysis Asia Price expands to consolidation to take the minor buy side swinging down 1 macro Price takes minor sell side unwilling to retrace to the equilibrium level as I suspected. (LTF demonstrates the 2022 model in candle formation which could been a buy signal because the unwillingness of Price to rebalance the FVG 21:15 candle tipping its hand that a bull rally is in play) Note I did not take this trade due to buying in a premium, and price did not retrace to discount PD ray. London 2 macro price takes very minor sell side again unwilling to rebalance the FVG 1 macro created. Buy signal again for a trend day with a parent bias known? 3 macro we see a retracement and full rally reversal to known buy stops, rebalance Sept FVG as targets. 6 macro provided my model rules. Deep premium retracement cycle expected to rebalance recent inefficiently delivered price action. Candle formation noted on LFT-hindsight sell set up. Wasn't interested in anything after London-NY too dicey for me to navigate. However in hindsight with key level of buy side liquidity taken a short set up to rebalance at the 11 macro for the courageous. What tripped me up yesterday was "expecting" for price to retrace lower in Asia and London to set up for a bull rally coming into NY, and the reverse happened. Price expanded in Asia into London with low resistance candle patterns and then reversed. What did I learn yesterday: *I suspected for price to lower it did not-when it only took minor sell side coupled with time, and the 2022 candle formation formed, with identified parent bias all factors for a buy signal in this market *several macro times price would retrace to a FVG half way point and then rally. Easiest to see this on the min charts-great example of low resistance liquidity run *low resistance days focus on liquidity taken on a PD ray for trade set ups
by LeanLena
EURUSD - Possible Channel BreakEURUSD has been on a Bull run since the tariff news came and Dollar went in pressure. It is respecting the channel very well lately however the Correction wave have concluded and we should see a Buliish break above. This can happen very quickly due to current market situations and the move can be very volatile so please set wider stop losses when entering and add in small lots. If you found this analysis valuable, kindly consider boosting and following for more updates. Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Long
by MarketsPOV
EURUSD Analysis: Bullish Setup Based on EASY Trading AI SignalsEURUSD presents a strong buy scenario according to our EASY Trading AI analytics system. The current entry recommendation stands at 1.10507, projecting a price surge towards the take-profit target of 1.11960667. In contrast, the stop-loss is cautiously placed at 1.08548667, ensuring balanced risk management.This bullish stance comes from the EASY Trading AI algorithm, analyzing key indicators including momentum strength, recent price actions, and volatility patterns. Market conditions align positively towards EUR momentum continuation, indicating higher probability bullish outcomes ahead.Keep these critical levels in focus and utilize disciplined journaling to track position validity.
Long
by ForexRobotEasy
EURUSD Forecast: Bulls Targeting 1.11960667EURUSD shows a clear buying opportunity, highlighted by the EASY Trading AI analytical system. A strong bullish setup formed with entry recommended at 1.10507. The pair demonstrates solid upside momentum supported by consistent bullish signals, aiming towards our strategic target at 1.11960667. Protective measures are essential, thus placing a disciplined Stop Loss at 1.08548667. Confirmed bullish indicators and underlying market sentiment align closely, validating this upward scenario. Strict adherence to the outlined levels ensures optimal risk management within the current market structure.
Long
by ForexRobotEasy
A seismic shift in global trade | FX ResearchIt's being viewed as a watershed, historic moment for global trade. The US Liberation Day tariffs have certainly shaken up financial markets. In the immediate aftermath, investors have lost confidence in the US dollar, which has come under pressure across the board—particularly against other major currencies, which are being seen as attractive alternatives. Clearly, the moves have been viewed as more aggressive than expected. Now it comes down to the global response. We’ll find out if the days ahead bring further escalation or if it’s the start of a negotiation process where some of the extremes are pared back. Key standouts on Thursday's calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK PMI reads; Eurozone producer prices; ECB speech; Canada trade; US trade; US initial jobless claims; US ISM services; and the ECB minutes. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets