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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD could slump 280 pips following tomorrow's ECB meetingThe U.S. consumer price figures were not enough to trigger a slide in EURUSD, nor did they lead to a rebound. Instead, the market is trading sideways as we await tomorrow's ECB rate meeting. The ECB is expected to cut rates, with the possibility of signaling a 50-basis-point cut in upcoming meetings due to weak economic growth and inflation at target. From a technical standpoint, the price has formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which might fail. The pattern would invalidate and trigger if the price falls below the right shoulder, currently at 1.0462. If this level breaks, the price could drop by the same distance as the projected rise from the pattern, roughly 280 pips, targeting 1.0181. Trading in smaller chunks is advisable unless the market moves quickly toward the target. What's your view? Could this play out, or do you expect a false breakdown? This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
EURUSD 2 macroEURUSD 2 macro Asia rallies to the buy side taking 2 sets of clean equal highs and reaches for the 50% of FVG. Classic ICT short set up. Starts to break down comes up again with displacement creating a FVG and drops to take clean equal lows and a small inefficiency. Price is choppy consolidation at the midnight opening price leading into London. 2 macro what i learned 1:45 displaces down creating a FVG 1:51 starts to rally above the opening price coming into the FVG that could be an IFVG? 2 candle 5 pips above price takes the recent clean equal highs formed Price burst through the IFVG to the down side I had a sell at the midnight price suspecting from my morning analysis that price would swing up to drop to the equal lows Celebrate that you got in a 2 and now work on trusting yourself.
Short
by LParnell
EURUSD Wave Analysis 11 December 2024 - EURUSD reversed from resistance zone - Likely to fall to support level 1.0450 EURUSD currency pair recently reversed down with the long-legged Doji from the resistance area between the upper daily Bollinger Band, pivotal resistance level 1.0610 (former multi-month support from April) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from the start of November. The downward reversal from this resistance zone started the active minor downward impulse wave 3. Given the strength of the aforementioned resistance area and the clear daily downtrend, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.0450 (low of the earlier minor correction b).
Short
by FxProGlobal
EURUSD What Next? BUY! My dear subscribers, EURUSD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 1.0513 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 1.0538 About Used Indicators: The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
EURUSD H1 11/12/2024 - SELL below 1.0525/1.0530 , Reversal 1.054Multi-Timeframe Analysis D1 (Daily Chart) Trend: Strong bearish bias, with price below the 200 SMA and Ichimoku cloud. Indicators: RSI at 40 and MACD signaling downside momentum. Support/Resistance: Support: 1.0490 and 1.0450. Resistance: 1.0540 and 1.0570. H4 (4-Hour Chart) Trend: Downtrend continues, with price consolidating near the lower Bollinger Band. Indicators: Stochastic is in the oversold zone (17.87), indicating potential short-term pullback. MACD suggests bearish momentum but losing strength. Support/Resistance: Support: 1.0495 and 1.0450. Resistance: 1.0530 and 1.0550. H1 (Hourly Chart) Trend: Price is below all major moving averages and Ichimoku cloud, confirming bearish structure. Indicators: RSI at 40, indicating continued bearish bias but with room for a pullback. Stochastic is oversold (23.76) and turning up, suggesting a potential retracement. ATR (14) at 10 pips, reflecting moderate volatility. Key Levels: Support: 1.0495, followed by 1.0450. Resistance: 1.0530 and 1.0545. M30 (30-Minute Chart) Trend: Intraday bearish trend intact, with consolidation near key support levels. Indicators: MACD turning slightly neutral. Stochastic oversold (28.47), indicating potential for minor correction. Revised Trade Plan for EUR/USD (H1) Trade Setup 1: Bearish Continuation After Pullback Rationale: EUR/USD remains in a bearish trend, and any pullback toward 1.0530–1.0540 provides an optimal sell opportunity. Trade Details: Entry Price: 1.0525–1.0530 (on a retracement to resistance). Stop-Loss: 1.0555 (above the intraday resistance). Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0495 (current support). TP2: 1.0450 (next key support). Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2. Trade Setup 2: Aggressive Breakout Short Rationale: A clean break below 1.0495 would confirm bearish continuation, targeting lower levels. Trade Details: Entry Price: 1.0490 (on a confirmed breakout). Stop-Loss: 1.0515 (above the breakout level). Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0470. TP2: 1.0450. Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2. Trade Setup 3: Intraday Scalping on Reversal Rationale: If price breaks above 1.0535, it may trigger short-term buy momentum, targeting a retracement to the next resistance. Trade Details: Entry Price: 1.0540. Stop-Loss: 1.0525. Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0555. TP2: 1.0570. Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.5. Key Considerations News Impact: Watch for the 13:30 GMT US inflation data release, which could spike volatility. Avoid placing trades right before the release. Correlated Instruments: DXY: A rise above 106.75 may further pressure EUR/USD. Treasury Yields: A spike in yields could add USD strength.
Short
by napoleon182
EURUSD - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation. For me the best way to confirm higher timeframe context is structure. We can notice the red line - break of market structure (sign of weakness) on key liquidity level, so there is a higher probability to see price lower at least on opposite level (marked lower). Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Short
by Maks_Klimenko
EURUSD IS BULLISHI hope you are still buying EUR, if not this is a perfect entry. EUR has cleared a yearly low. It has show a great rejection from the area; now is the r3t3st and the perfect entry. Looking back at DXY chart and EUR chart for the past 10 years, you will find a pattern and that's why I'm certain of EUR strength agsisjt dollar. Same with GBP and AUD. AUD should outperform both of them but I prefer eur and gbp. Dont miss out on this trade. Comment if you have any question or contrary opinion. I want to write more but let me post so you guys will see this on time
Long
by UGBOR
EUR/USD 4H Timeframe AnalysisEUR/USD 4H Timeframe Analysis Trend: In the 4H timeframe, EUR/USD is in a downtrend. The price broke below the major support at 1.06200 and then retested, which has now become our major key resistance zone. The price then dropped further to the next minor support at 1.0330,then moved up, created a gap, and filled it for a short time. Following this, the price started creating lower lows and lower highs until it returned to the major key resistance. There, an inverted hammer was followed by a bearish engulfing candle, signaling a potential price reversal. Additionally, the price broke the rising wedge chart pattern and retested the minor resistance at 1.05300. Afterward, the price moved lower and broke below the minor support. Price Action Expectation: We expect another reversal at the minor key resistance. Once the price breaks the resistance, triggering stop-loss liquidations from sellers, we anticipate a move downward. If the price moves back below the minor support, we will enter a sell stop order below the minor support at 1.04908, with a stop loss at 1.05490 (between the liquidity area). Our take profit target will be the next minor support at 1.03360. Trade Setup: Sell Stop Entry: 1.04908 Stop Loss: 1.05490 (between the liquidity area) Take Profit: 1.03360 (next minor support) Risk: 1% Fundamental Outlook: The US Dollar continues to consolidate around the highs, although it’s stronger against commodity currencies. In the broader picture, the market has likely reached the peak in the repricing of interest rate expectations. It will take stronger catalysts to further price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This environment supports the US Dollar and could keep downward pressure on EUR/USD in the near term.
Short
by RebornFXTrader
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 11, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD lost around 0.2% on Tuesday, declining for the third consecutive day and hitting 1.0500 again, as the euro's bullish near-term recovery comes to naught. Ahead of the key U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figure due for release on Wednesday and the European Central Bank's (ECB) next meeting on Thursday, traders once again adopted a cautious stance. Wednesday's CPI inflation index will be one of the last key data points before the Federal Reserve's (Fed) last meeting in 2024. Signs that inflation progress has stalled could kill hopes for a third consecutive rate cut on December 18. With the current rate cut on Wednesday, U.S. CPI inflation for November is expected to rise slightly to 2.7% y/y from the previous reading of 2.6%, while core annual CPI is expected to remain at 3.3%. Traders estimate the probability of the last quarter-point rate cut this year at 85%. The ECB's latest rate meeting is scheduled for Thursday, and investors are widely expected to get another quarter-point rate cut. The ECB's main refinancing operations rate is forecast to be cut to 3.15% from 3.4% and the ECB deposit rate is forecast to fall to 3.0% from 3.25%. Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 1.0480, trading mainly with Sell orders
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURUSD SELL Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each: --- 1. Order Blocks An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement. Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement. Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement. How to use: Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend. Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones. Example: If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block. --- 2. Imbalances An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure. These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third. It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement. How to use: Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones. Enter a position when the gap is filled. Example: In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area. --- 3. Breaker Blocks A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken." Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement. They can also be used to filter valid order blocks. How to use: After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest. Used to identify trend reversals. Example: In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block. --- 4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement. An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal. It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap." How to use: Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal. Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses. Example: In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward.
Short
by Tonksovave
EUR/USD: Market Anticipation Ahead of Key Economic ReportsAs the London trading session unfolds on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair is hovering around the 1.0580 mark. Investors are gearing up for significant economic events this week, including the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November, set to be released on Wednesday. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, making this week crucial for market participants seeking insights into future monetary policy shifts. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD has shown a lack of substantial movement over the past week, remaining firmly below the 1.0600 resistance level. Traders are closely watching how the currency pair interacts with this barrier, as it could dictate the next direction for the market. With speculation surrounding a potential interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this month, Wednesday's inflation figures may be the crucial factor influencing the Fed's decision. Analysts predict that the annual consumer price inflation will slightly increase to 2.7% year-over-year in November, up from 2.6% in October. Moreover, the core inflation rate, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, is anticipated to hold steady at 3.3% year-over-year. Given the current landscape, our strategy is to remain on the sidelines as we await the CPI data on Wednesday and the Unemployment Claims report on Thursday. While our overall bias leans bearish, we believe it is prudent to refrain from taking any positions until the price potentially approaches a significant demand zone. This approach allows for a more informed entry that aligns with market developments. In summary, the EUR/USD is at a critical juncture as investors anticipate key economic reports that could have lasting effects on the currency pair's trajectory. With the market sentiment leaning toward caution, all eyes will be on the data releases this week. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Is EurUsd's correction over?In my previous posts about EUR/USD, I discussed the potential for an upside correction following the break below the 1.05 support level, the drop to 1.0330, and the subsequent reversal. I suggested that this upward movement could potentially push the price toward the 1.0670 resistance zone. Indeed, the pair did rise, reaching an intraday high of 1.0628 during Friday's NFP event. However, the day ended with a downside move, leaving a red candle with a long wick on the daily chart. The medium-term trend for EUR/USD remains bearish. This, combined with the overlapping structure from the recent low, clearly indicates that we are not witnessing the start of a bullish trend but rather a corrective phase. The key question now is whether this correction has concluded. To confirm, we would need to see a break back below the 1.05 level. With this in mind, if the pair revisits Friday's high, I plan to sell, placing a stop loss above 1.07 and targeting the 1.0450 support level.
by Mihai_Iacob
7
1211 Waiting for ECB to confirm a long term directionHello traders, Whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points depends on several factors, including current economic data, inflation outlook, market expectations, and policymakers' concerns about economic growth and financial stability. 1. Market Expectations and Current Economic Background - According to LSEG Refinitiv data, the market expects an 81% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, while the expectation for a 50 basis point cut is only 19%. This indicates that the market generally believes the ECB is more inclined towards a moderate rate cut rather than taking more aggressive measures. - The main challenges facing the European economy currently include slowing economic growth, easing inflation pressures, and fluctuations in energy prices. These factors may prompt the ECB to take action to support economic recovery, but a 50 basis point cut may be seen as too aggressive, especially when inflation has not fully returned to target. 2. Possibility of a 50 Basis Point Cut If the ECB chooses to cut rates by 50 basis points, it would be a bold move that exceeds market expectations, potentially indicating the following: - The ECB's concerns about economic growth are greater than the general market perception, suggesting a need for more substantial easing measures to stimulate the economy. - By implementing a larger rate cut, the ECB may be trying to send a strong signal to the market, demonstrating its commitment to supporting the economy. - However, such a move could also provoke negative market reactions, such as increased volatility in bond yields or further pressure on the euro exchange rate. 3. More Likely Scenario: A 25 Basis Point Cut - Historically, the ECB tends to adjust its policies gradually to avoid causing excessive disruption to the market. - A 25 basis point cut aligns with market expectations and can smoothly convey policy intentions while retaining flexibility for future adjustments. 4. **My View** - The likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is significantly higher, as it aligns with market expectations and avoids unnecessary volatility in financial markets. - If the ECB opts for a 50 basis point cut, it may indicate a more pessimistic assessment of recession risks, but this choice could also entail greater policy risks. Technically, EURUSD is testing the weekly support and moving beneath the EMAs. As long as it breaking through the support, a long-term bearish trend for EURUSD is pretty sure! GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
Short
by FUNTRADER-Vera