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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD Analysis: Bullish Setup Based on EASY Trading AI SignalsEURUSD presents a strong buy scenario according to our EASY Trading AI analytics system. The current entry recommendation stands at 1.10507, projecting a price surge towards the take-profit target of 1.11960667. In contrast, the stop-loss is cautiously placed at 1.08548667, ensuring balanced risk management.This bullish stance comes from the EASY Trading AI algorithm, analyzing key indicators including momentum strength, recent price actions, and volatility patterns. Market conditions align positively towards EUR momentum continuation, indicating higher probability bullish outcomes ahead.Keep these critical levels in focus and utilize disciplined journaling to track position validity.
Long
by ForexRobotEasy
EURUSD Forecast: Bulls Targeting 1.11960667EURUSD shows a clear buying opportunity, highlighted by the EASY Trading AI analytical system. A strong bullish setup formed with entry recommended at 1.10507. The pair demonstrates solid upside momentum supported by consistent bullish signals, aiming towards our strategic target at 1.11960667. Protective measures are essential, thus placing a disciplined Stop Loss at 1.08548667. Confirmed bullish indicators and underlying market sentiment align closely, validating this upward scenario. Strict adherence to the outlined levels ensures optimal risk management within the current market structure.
Long
by ForexRobotEasy
A seismic shift in global trade | FX ResearchIt's being viewed as a watershed, historic moment for global trade. The US Liberation Day tariffs have certainly shaken up financial markets. In the immediate aftermath, investors have lost confidence in the US dollar, which has come under pressure across the board—particularly against other major currencies, which are being seen as attractive alternatives. Clearly, the moves have been viewed as more aggressive than expected. Now it comes down to the global response. We’ll find out if the days ahead bring further escalation or if it’s the start of a negotiation process where some of the extremes are pared back. Key standouts on Thursday's calendar come from German, Eurozone, and UK PMI reads; Eurozone producer prices; ECB speech; Canada trade; US trade; US initial jobless claims; US ISM services; and the ECB minutes. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD ANALYSIS 🔵EUR/USD Analysis 1. Market Structure Bullish Market Structure: The price is in a strong uptrend, characterized by higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). Recent Pullback: After a strong bullish impulse, the price is experiencing a retracement. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.11465 (Potential Target) Support Zone: 1.08135 - 1.08470 (Grey Box – Demand Zone) 2. Order Blocks & Demand Zones Bullish Order Block (OB) & Demand Zone: The grey highlighted box represents an institutional demand zone. Price might retrace into this zone before continuing upward. 3. Liquidity Zones Liquidity Grab: The recent spike higher might have grabbed liquidity from previous highs. A retracement to the grey demand zone will confirm if big players are re-accumulating. Buy-side Liquidity Target: 1.11465 (Above previous high) 4. Moving Averages & Trend Confirmation Blue Moving Average (Possibly 50 EMA): Acting as dynamic support. Red Moving Average (Possibly 200 EMA): Supporting the overall bullish trend. If price retests the grey zone and bounces off the moving average, it confirms a strong buy setup. 5. RSI (Relative Strength Index) Current RSI: 62.72 This indicates a bullish momentum but is not yet overbought. If RSI dips towards 50 while price retraces, it strengthens the case for a buy from the demand zone. 6. Trade Setup (Based on SMC Concepts) Entry: Look for bullish confirmation in the grey demand zone (1.08135 - 1.08470). Stop Loss (SL): Below the grey box, around 1.07800. Take Profit (TP): Around 1.11465. Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable if entry is taken at the demand zone. Conclusion Bullish Bias: Await a potential retracement into the demand zone for an optimal buy entry. Key Confirmation: Look for bullish price action signs like engulfing candles, pin bars, or liquidity sweeps within the demand zone. Caution: If price breaks below the grey zone, it may indicate further downside correction.
Long
by klassicking
EURUSD Surges to 1.10 levels post-Trump Tariffs: BUY or SELL?Current Situation: EUR/USD spiked to 1.10 levels(up sharply) following Trump’s tariff announcement, defying initial expectations of short-term USD strength. This suggests markets are pricing in long-term risks to the USD (growth fears, retaliatory tariffs) faster than anticipated. Key Drivers Behind the Move: 1. Tariff Backfire Risk: Investors may fear tariffs will hurt U.S. growth more than Europe’s, weakening the USD. 2. ECB vs. Fed Policy Shift: Bets that the **Fed could cut rates sooner** if tariffs slow U.S. inflation/growth, while the ECB delays cuts. 3. Retaliation Bets: Expectations of aggressive EU countermeasures (e.g., tariffs on U.S. tech/agriculture) boosting EUR sentiment. --- Technical Analysis (EUR/USD Daily Chart) - ✅ Breakout Confirmed : Price surged till 2024's resistance, now testing 1.10 levels (psychological levels). - RSI: Overbought, suggesting short-term pullback risk. #EURUSD #TrumpTariffs #ForexTrading #Breakout #USDweakness
by AkiSignals
The Day Ahead Economic Data Releases (Market Impact) US: March ISM Services PMI – Key gauge of economic activity in the services sector. A higher-than-expected number could fuel rate hike concerns. February Trade Balance – Trade deficit/surplus could influence USD sentiment. Initial Jobless Claims – A lower figure may strengthen USD as it signals a strong labor market. UK: March Official Reserves Changes – Could impact GBP if there are significant shifts. China: March Caixin Services PMI – A strong reading could boost market sentiment, supporting risk assets. Italy & Eurozone: March Services PMI (Italy) & February PPI (Eurozone) – Weak data could reinforce ECB rate cut expectations, affecting EUR. Canada: February International Merchandise Trade – Affects CAD; trade surplus could strengthen the currency. Switzerland: March CPI – Inflation trends impact SNB policy expectations and CHF. Central Bank Events (Market Moving) US Fed Speakers (Jefferson, Cook) – Any hints on future rate hikes/cuts will drive USD and bond markets. ECB March Meeting Account – Insight into ECB’s rate path; dovish tone may weaken EUR. BoE March DMP Survey – Expectations on inflation and growth, potentially influencing GBP. Geopolitical Event NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting (April 3-4) – Any geopolitical developments could impact risk sentiment, affecting oil prices, defense stocks, and safe-haven assets. Trading Relevance USD: High impact from ISM Services PMI, jobless claims, and Fed speeches. EUR: ECB minutes and Eurozone PPI could drive movement. GBP: BoE survey and UK reserves data in focus. CAD: Trade balance key for CAD direction. CHF: Inflation print may influence SNB rate expectations. Risk Sentiment: Watch China PMI and NATO meeting for broader market impact. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Will markets suffer a 30% drop?Will markets suffer a 30% drop? The announcement of new U.S. tariffs caused a surprising wave of selling in financial markets, sparing no sector. The consequences of this decision have been shaken, and the market is now in a state of uncertainty. The uncertainty has also affected monetary policy expectations, with investors now predicting more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This is evident from the collapse in the probability of the “no cut” scenario according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. To make matters worse, the recent ISM data showed a sharp decline in new orders, a worrisome sign for future economic growth. In addition, only 47 percent of companies listed in the S&P 500 are priced above their 200-day moving average, a level that in the past has been associated with average declines of 7.3 percent over the next 12 months. However, is it really justified to be so concerned? A major cause of the panic is the Atlanta Fed's forecast, which significantly revised downward its estimated growth for the current quarter. According to the GDPNow model, the annual increase went from +2.3 percent to -2.8 percent in just a few days. This dramatic revision has led many analysts to speak of a “Trumpcession,” pointing to a possible risk of recession under a new Trump administration. It is important to note that the Atlanta Fed's forecast is an exception to most current estimates. For example, the New York Fed's Nowcast model still forecasts annual growth of +2.9 percent in the first quarter, in line with previous expectations. This suggests that the sharp drop in the forecast could be influenced by temporary factors or specific calculation methods. Not long ago, the same model predicted +4.0% growth. Stock markets are in turmoil because of growing economic concerns. Technology stocks, which have been driving the stock market upward for years, are now among the main losers, with companies such as Nvidia and Tesla posting negative performances. The aviation sector is also coming under pressure, with companies such as Delta Airlines seeing sharp declines in profits due to economic uncertainty. The financial sector is under particular pressure as banks increase their reserves for potential loan losses, a sign that credit quality may deteriorate in the coming quarters. The volatility futures market is showing signs of concern as contracts maturing in March are more expensive than eight-month contracts. This “backwardation” has been present for four consecutive sessions and in the past has predicted long periods of impending turmoil. Historical facts have shown that when volatility futures remain in backwardation for more than five days, the market suffered further losses in the following month with an average of 4.5 percent. Hedge funds are adapting to the current economic situation and reducing their exposure to equities. Instead, they are focusing their investments on safer assets such as U.S. government bonds, highlighting strong pessimism among institutional investors. Goldman Sachs statistics also reflect this trend, with a reduction in exposure to stocks similar to that seen during the market crash in 2020. The history of financial markets has taught us that phases of volatility and panic are common and cyclical. Often, sudden fluctuations in economic expectations are driven by emotions rather than a rational response to hard data. It is important to note that the tariffs have not yet taken effect, so it is premature to draw firm conclusions about their impact on markets. My prediction is that the tariff war will not materialize and the United States will soon come to an agreement. In addition, it seems increasingly likely that the conflict in Ukraine will end soon and the FED's interest rates will fall, which will have a positive effect on the market in the next quarter. I predict that the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Bitcoin will recover at least half of their losses in the coming weeks.
by Antonio_Ferlito
US Tariffs Global Stock Market Crash and International Reactions Hello, I am Forex Trader Andrea Russo and today I am talking to you about what happened yesterday, Liberation Day. Yesterday, US President Donald Trump announced new "reciprocal" customs duties against several countries, including the European Union, China, the United Kingdom and many others. This announcement, called "Liberation Day" by the White House, has triggered a series of chain reactions on global markets. The new tariffs, ranging from 10% to 46%, have been justified as a measure to rebalance international trade practices and protect the American economy. However, the immediate impact has been a significant collapse of global stock markets. Investors, worried about possible retaliation and the escalation of trade tensions, have reacted by massively selling their shares. In Europe, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU was ready to respond with appropriate measures, while Italian President Sergio Mattarella called the new tariffs a "profound mistake." The oil market also took a hit, with the price of WTI falling to $69.87 a barrel. The impact on financial markets was devastating. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones closed down 3.5%, while the Nasdaq lost 4.2%. European stocks were not far behind, with London's FTSE 100 losing 3.8% and Frankfurt's DAX falling 4.1%. Asian stocks also suffered sharp declines, with Japan's Nikkei closing down 3.7%. For forex traders, these dynamics represent both a challenge and an opportunity. Market volatility can offer opportunities for profit, but it also requires careful risk management. It is essential to closely monitor geopolitical news and market reactions to make informed decisions. In conclusion, the global economic landscape is in a phase of great uncertainty. As a trader, it is essential to stay updated and ready to react quickly to changes. Keep following my updates for more analysis and trading tips. Happy trading everyone!
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Key Support Test and Potential BreakThe image is a technical analysis chart for the EUR/JPY currency pair on a 3-hour timeframe. Here’s a breakdown of the analysis: Key Elements of the Chart: 1. Support & Resistance Levels: A resistance level is marked near 161.100. A support zone is highlighted in purple around the 160.820 - 161.100 area. A stop-loss level is indicated below 160.820, around 160.259. 2. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA): 200 EMA (Blue Line): 161.100, indicating a long-term trend support. 30 EMA (Red Line): 161.889, representing a short-term trend resistance. 3. Trade Setup: The price is currently testing the support zone. A potential long entry (buy position) is anticipated if price bounces from the support level. Target Point (Take Profit) is set at 164.241. Risk-
Long
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE
5
Euro-dollar eyes $1.10 againWith new tariffs likely to have a significant negative impact on the American economy, the euro made strong gains against the dollar in the aftermath of the announcement. Against these, inflation in the eurozone cooled to 2.2% according to the flash release for March. The consensus is for a total cut of 0.65% by the ECB for the rest of 2025, which in itself is a negative factor for the euro: the difference in rates between it and the dollar is unlikely to change significantly until possibly next year. $1.10 looks like a strong resistance which could resist testing for some time unless sentiment supports a breakout. However, with the price having consolidated above $1.08 for most of last month, a move above $1.10 seems to be more favourable technically now compared to around this time in March: there’s no indication of overbought and the slow stochastic is close to neutral at around 55. The area around $1.07-1.08 and particularly $1.07 itself around the 100% monthly Fibonacci retracement will probably remain in view as a zone of support. A lot depends on the results of the upcoming American job report: since the range of expectations for total nonfarm is so wide, it seems more likely that the actual result will diverge significantly from the average consensus. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
Euro Rises Above $1.09 Despite Tariff ThreatsThe euro climbed above $1.09, showing unexpected strength after President Trump announced 20% tariffs on all EU imports. ◉ Fundamental Rationale ● The currency got a boost because the U.S. dollar weakened. Trump’s tariffs made trade tensions worse and worried people about slower economic growth. ● Also, new numbers showed Eurozone inflation fell to 2.2% in March, the lowest since November 2024. ● This lower inflation means the European Central Bank doesn’t need to raise interest rates, making the euro more appealing to investors. ◉ Technical Observation ● From a technical perspective, an inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed, hinting at a possible trend reversal. ● A breakout above $1.095 could pave the way for stronger bullish momentum.
Long
by NaranjCapital
THIs Is MY ENTIRE PLAYBOOK RIGHT HERE... The only Thing that Wor So Yeah ... because the theory is " THE HIGHER THE TIME FRA ME , the S STRONGER the TIMEFRAME" So... Here's the entire Step by Step process O. IDENTIFY a HIGHER TIMEFRAME FVG ( ex. WEEK FVG ) 1. Wait for price to be at LOWER TIMERAME FVG (ex. DAY FVG ) 2. Wait For Price to have a Strong SWEEP ( abnormally long Wicks are preferred ) and CHOCH on 4HR-1HR-15MIN WHILE INSIDE THE DAY FVG. 3. After the CHOCH swing leg has completed, plot FIB, FVG, FRVP and establish your Context Area. 4. ENTER @ Context Area, or validate the context area first. Then enter. These look like SWING SETUPS ( it is ), so how do I make sure I have at least one trade per day? Scan the charts and put alarms on DAY FVGS with opposing WEEK FVGS. Trade only the ones triggering the alarms. Wait, I think I understand the context area now and its purpose. You don't enter inside the context area ... Here is where you " Sandbox and validate " your hypothesis that "price will pump after hitting the FVG" by making sure that price behaves the way you expect it to behave FIRST ( 1. FVG Sweep 2. CHOCH+ FVG 3. OTE ZONE TAP and RUN ), before You start looking for an entry . It's easier to understand in programming logic . IF WEEK FVG < - > DAY FVG EXISTS , THEN REVERSAL PROBABILITY 10% IF PRICE STINGS DAY FVG , THEN REVERSAL PROBABILITY 20% IF PRICE CREATES CONTEXT AREA, THEN REVERSAL PROBABILITY 40% IF PRICE RESPECTS CONTEXT AREA, THEN REVERSAL PROBABILITY 60% This is the point Where You go to 15min - 5m - 1min and cook up an entry. OR, Simply enter after a 15min FVG in line with Target / Bias. Just put your SL below Sting point. You are targeting a weekly FVG, so it's a Swing trade at this point.
by reventioaxie
EURUSD: Bulls Take ControlEURUSD has broken out of the parallel descending channel that existed over the past few days, thanks to positive economic data in the market at the end of Thursday's trading session. Currently, the currency pair is moving in a consolidation pattern around the new support level at 1.0789, and the potential for further upside is considered high due to support from the confluence zone between EMA 34 and EMA 89. The next targets are expected to aim for resistance levels at 1.082 and 1.085. Wishing you smooth and successful trading!
Long
by BrianCarter