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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR/USD: NFP and LargardeBy Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst The EUR/USD is at a point of high volatility this Friday, marked by the release of the US jobs report and the speech of Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB). These key factors will influence investors' decisions and the direction of the currency market. U.S. Employment Data: Impact on the Dollar The February nonfarm payrolls report is the main macroeconomic event of the day. Job creation of 156,000 is expected, up from 125,000 in January, while the unemployment rate is projected at 4.0%. If the data beats expectations, it could strengthen the dollar, putting downward pressure on EUR/USD. If not, the pair could see a rebound. Lagarde's speech: possible clues on ECB monetary policy Markets will be watching Christine Lagarde's speech for clues on the direction of ECB monetary policy. With inflation still above the 2% target, any comments suggesting a tightening stance could boost the euro. However, if Lagarde adopts a more dovish tone, it could put downward pressure on the common currency. EUR/USD Technical Outlook From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD remains within a key range. Immediate support is at 1.1818, while key resistance is at highs of 1.12132. A break below support could take the pair towards 1.05140, while a bullish breakout could allow it to test 1.12, if this breakout is successful it could advance to 1.14896. Other factors to consider Market sentiment is also affected by volatility in cryptocurrencies and the performance of stock indices. Bitcoin and Ethereum post significant declines, while Asian and US markets trade with a negative sign, reflecting investors' nervousness ahead of macroeconomic data. Conclusion EUR/USD will be determined today by the strength of the US labor market and ECB statements. In an environment of uncertainty, volatility will remain high, offering opportunities for both short-term traders and strategic investors. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades
EURUSD Trading Journal March 7 Analysis EURUSD Trading Journal March 7 Analysis Note that yesterday's Price rallied to the Daily BISI to the bottom working in the lower half and reject/respected. Today is NFP. Will Price continue a buy program trend or will it seek to rebalance and break down to come to the 50 level of the recent Price range was created this week. Yesterday Price was in consolidation before expanding to the daily BISI and then retraced to take session sells stops. I will watch for reaction at the 50 level on the previous range. Curious to see how today plays out. Staying to the sidelines as I suspect there will be another large move.
by LeanLena
EURUSD Trading Journal March 7 Analysis EURUSD Trading Journal March 7 Analysis Price is in a Premium on the W/M charts. Yesterday Price finished above the .70 on HTF charts. Note on the monthly chart January and Feb were indecisive candles,I was correct in my Sunday analysis to suggest big moves are coming. 408 pips in 3 days 😳. Price targeted had noted targets of equal highs target, Daily and Weekly SIBI. Note the Price rally on higher prices, with no retracement on previous day, however reacting on the dealing ranges 70 level. There are many takes aways this week that I will journal this weekend.
by LeanLena
EURUSD 1HOUR CHART TACHNICAL ANALYSIS NEXT MOVE POSSIBLEThis chart is an analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on a 1-hour timeframe. Here’s what it represents: ### **Key Insights from the Chart:** 1. **Trend Channels**: - The chart shows two trend channels: - A previous **downtrend channel** (red and blue). - A **new uptrend channel** where the price has been rising. 2. **Support & Buy Zone**: - A **yellow highlighted area** labeled as "BUY ZOON, SUPPORT LEVEL" suggests a potential area where buyers may enter if the price retraces. 3. **Resistance & Price Reaction**: - The price has reached the upper boundary of the current uptrend channel. - A **red horizontal resistance line at 1.08429** indicates a key resistance level. 4. **Bearish Prediction**: - The **blue arrows** suggest a possible downward move from the resistance zone. - The expected retracement might target a lower support area. ### **Conclusion:** This chart suggests that EUR/USD may face a pullback after a strong uptrend. Traders might look for buying opportunities at the support level (yellow zone) or short-term selling opportunities if the price breaks below the trendline. Would you like further clarification on any aspect?
Short
by afzalforex110
"MEGA - Make Europe Great Again "The technical formation is cristal clear. Look at the 4hr char. Fundamentals are not clear as the technicals, but smart money is posioned themself long ago and constantly buying reasonable dips, since its a probability game now. Is the Ukraine war will end in the comming months Yes: 60% Europe inflation is under control? Yes 80% ECB will cut on th next meeting? No 60% Will europe profit from the end of the war trough reconstruction? 50% Germany elections are done coalition will be formed and will function. ( German politicians already have done a self-revising process and they wont fail.) USA will impose severe tarrifs on European Union: 10%-(chance) Is German economy bottling out: Yes altough france needs to join for party. Italy is italy : We love them and feed them. USA: Is the economy strong as they claim? In the next post we gonna have look at it. Just a hint: How the GDP calculated and what the USA goverment wants in future. Every actions is effectecting the GDP calculations and not on the most positive way. to be continued.
Long
by ElGatoTrade
1
EURUSD INTRADAY ECB decision and statement in focusBullish Scenario: The EURUSD currency pair maintains a bullish outlook, supported by the prevailing longer-term uptrend. The recent intraday price action indicates a period of sideways consolidation near the rising support trendline. The key level to watch is 1.0765, which aligns with both the previous consolidation range and the trendline support. A corrective pullback that finds support at 1.0765, followed by a bullish rebound, could drive the pair higher toward 1.0825, with extended upside targets at 1.0855 and 1.0920 over the longer timeframe. Bearish Scenario: A confirmed breakdown below 1.0765, particularly with a daily close beneath this level, would invalidate the bullish outlook. This could lead to a deeper retracement, exposing support at 1.0730, with further downside potential toward 1.0660, signaling a shift in momentum. Conclusion: The overall trend remains bullish, but 1.0765 is a critical level for confirmation. Holding above this level strengthens upside potential, while a decisive break below it could open the door for further downside correction. Traders should closely monitor price action around this key support zone to determine the next directional move. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Dovish Message from the European Central Bank (ECB)### Directed Analysis **1. Dovish Message from the European Central Bank (ECB):** The reduction of the key interest rate from 4% to 2.5% signals a significant shift in monetary policy. This move clearly indicates the ECB's intention to stimulate economic activity and alleviate downward pressures in the region. **2. Market Expectations and Future Path:** Given that investors have already anticipated further rate cuts—projecting rates to fall to 2% by the end of the year—the current move is likely just the beginning of a series of easing measures. These expectations mean that markets are primed to react to any additional signals of monetary easing from the ECB. **3. Existing Challenges and Risks:** Despite the dovish stance, growing disagreements among ECB policymakers—particularly concerning tariff ambiguities and the potential rise in regional defense spending—introduce uncertainty and possible future volatility. Should these issues become more pronounced, there is a risk that future policy adjustments could rapidly shift market direction. **4. Market Orientation:** Considering the rate cuts and market expectations, it appears that the downward pressure on interest rates is set to continue, potentially channeling more capital into riskier assets. However, the uncertainties stemming from internal policy disagreements and geopolitical factors could lead to short-term fluctuations, necessitating a cautious investment approach. **Conclusion:** In the short term, the ECB's easing move is likely to foster a risk-on sentiment in the capital markets by supporting economic growth and further reducing interest rates. Nonetheless, investors should remain vigilant regarding the uncertainties tied to internal policy debates and geopolitical challenges, and adjust their risk management strategies accordingly. @MashinchiFx
by kamyarmashinchi
EURUSD Weekly PlanI was waiting for a clean setup on EURUSD. Actually, nothing is really clean yet honestly, but i think that we should expect something like this in the next hours. The short need to see another push to the upside to be validated, followed by a drop below last low and a retracement into this accumulation area. Better setup it's on the long, where i will wait for a retracement into the liquidity area from 1.05-1.06 and i will wait for an accumulation setup followed by a clean break of structure
Long
by SaliJournal
EUR/USD Long Utilizing 4H EB (Equilibrium Block)Since the market opened on Sunday EU has been on an uptrend. It also broke past the previous 2 week's resistance/supply zone and retested it using it as a demand zone on Tuesday morning during the New York AM session. Then proceeds to create a strong bullish candle during the NY PM session that same day. This then starts the process for the equilibrium block. The way I identify EBs is by making sure there is a 3 candle model. The first candle must be a strong bullish or bearish candle while the second candle is the opposite/a retest and then the third candle must be an engulfing candle. So for this example it is a bullish set up so the 3 candle model was bullish bearish then bullish engulfing. If it was a bearish set up it would be bearish bullish then bearish engulfing. I placed my stop loss under the smallest wick on the engulfing candle and gave it room to breath by putting it at an institutional level. It took over a day but this trade ended up hitting all profit targets! Trade Details: Entry Point: 1.06257 Stop Loss: 1.05995 Profit Target 1: 1.07282 Profit Target 2: 1.07965 Profit Target 3: 1.08242
Long
by sman579
EUR/USD Breaks Resistance – Bullish Momentum or Pullback Ahead?what are your ideas on EURUSD? The EURO/USD pair breaks a resistance level after touching the bottom of the ascending channel,increasing the probability of a new bullish wave. AS THE RESISTANCE IS BROKEN NOW THE NEXT target will be the top of the channel . Here we have two points to watch on A bullish continuation is likely if price holds above the resistance. A rejection from the 200 EMA could lead to consolidation or a pullback before another attempt higher. what do you think will EUR/USD sustain the support and be on bullish movement ?
Long
by KingProTrader
EURUSD: ST&MT View!EU has been under recession for a while now and reached the bottom. Any peace in Ukraine will be positive EU. On the other equation, the USA economy was the only economy going well up to month ago. But the recent economic data are sustainably showing weaknesses. Market has started to price in a recession. Adding to the fear of recession, Trump tariffs. So based on FA, EURUSD instead of going to parity, is showing a change of structure. I think, price has started the initial wave up.
Long
by OTM-Fadhl
EUR/USD Massive Breakout After Liquidity Grab!Analysis: A strong bullish breakout on EUR/USD after a clear liquidity grab at the lows! The buy order at 1.05 survived the stop hunt, and price surged towards the take profit zone near 1.07. 📊 Key Observations: ✅ Liquidity Sweep: Smart Money engineered liquidity below key support. ✅ Explosive Reversal: Price aggressively pushed up post-sweep. ✅ Bullish Confirmation: A daily breakout could indicate more upside. 🔔 What’s Next? Will EUR/USD hold above this key level or fake out? Watch for potential retracements into discount zones before another leg up. 💬 Do you think the bulls will take control from here? Drop your thoughts below! 👇 #PriceAction #LiquidityGrab #OrderBlock #ForexSignals #FXTrader #Breakout
Long
by IRGELD
EUR/USD Market Update: Bullish Momentum in Play CAPITALCOM:EURUSD We just updated our analysis according to the latest price action. Today's move gave us solid confirmation of the bullish trend. The market pulled back to 1.04276, touched our support level perfectly, and then bounced back up—just as expected. We've adjusted our star pattern while keeping the same key levels intact. Chart Analysis: Current Situation: The price is currently hovering around 1.04878, showing good strength after the bounce. Support Level: 1.04276 proved itself as a solid support. The price respected this level, giving us more confidence in our bullish bias. First Target: Our immediate target is 1.05415. This level lines up nicely with both our geometric grid and historical resistance. If the price keeps this momentum, it shouldn't take long to reach it. Key Levels to Watch: 1.06440: This is the next resistance level. If we break through 1.05415, this is where we’ll focus. 1.07469 and 1.08626: These are more ambitious targets but definitely possible if the bullish momentum continues. 1.10834: This would be a real win, indicating a strong shift in the overall trend. What the Chart Tells Us: The updated chart shows how our geometric grid aligns with price action. The white "star" pattern gives us a roadmap, and the red dashed lines highlight important time pivots. These intersections often guide the price, so I’m keeping a close eye on them. The recent "choch 4h" at 1.03738 marks a change of character on the 4-hour chart. It’s a good sign that the bearish phase might be behind us, and we’re in a new bullish cycle. Bottom Line: We’re on track toward 1.05415, and if the market keeps this pace, higher targets could be in play. I’ll be watching how the price reacts around our geometric intersections and adjusting as needed. The plan is simple: ride the bullish wave but stay ready in case the market throws us a curveball.
Long
by QuantumFusion