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#AN003 News of the Week and Impact on Forex Hello, I am Forex trader Andrea Russo, and today I present to you a detailed analysis of the most important news of the week (26–29 May 2025) and their real impact on the Forex market, with strategic observations to immediately include in your trading plan. In this article we will examine the 7 most significant macroeconomic and geopolitical events that have affected the main currency pairs, evaluating the effect on USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD and emerging currencies. Everything is filtered according to the SwipeUP v9 Elite FX model, based on institutional data, real sentiment and candle-by-candle simulations. 📌 1. USA: Court stops Trump Tariffs One of the most relevant news of the week comes from the United States: a federal court has blocked the application of Donald Trump's trade tariffs, declaring them illegitimate. This event has caused an immediate reaction in the currency markets. 🔍 Forex Impact: The US Dollar (USD) had an initial technical bounce, but then lost strength in the European session. Pairs such as EUR/USD and USD/JPY showed strong reactivity. EUR/USD was rejected from 1.1250, while USD/JPY found support. 📊 Strategic Implications: Risk perceptions on the greenback are rising. Interest in alternative safe haven currencies such as gold and the Swiss franc is growing. 📌 2. US Q1 GDP Downward US Q1 GDP was revised down from -0.1% to -0.2%, confirming a mild economic contraction. 🔍 Forex Impact: The dollar lost momentum, reinforcing the narrative of a possible rate cut. EUR/USD could consolidate above 1.1200 ahead of stronger EU PMI data. 📊 Key Pairs: EUR/USD long on confirmation of 1.1200 support. Possible breakout on AUD/USD if US data continues to disappoint. 📌 3. US Inventories and Oil Rebound: CAD on the Boost US crude inventories fell more than expected, and WTI price is back above $79. 🔍 FX Impact: CAD strengthens on fundamental and intermarket basis. Potential short on USD/CAD with target area 1.3550. 📌 4. UK: Very Strong Data and Resilient GBP UK macro data surprised to the upside: services PMI and core inflation stable, supporting the British pound. 🔍 Forex Impact: GBP/USD above 1.2700 with room for expansion. EUR/GBP rejected by 0.8600: potential for bearish continuation. 📌 5. Forex Options Expirations and Expected Volatility Thursday and Friday are crowded with large option expirations, which can act as price magnets. 📍 Levels to Watch: EUR/USD: 1.1200 and 1.1250 → potential for spikes or rejections. USD/JPY: 145.00 → technical and options confluence. AUD/USD: 0.6650 key zone with volumes in compression. 📊 Trading advice: avoid new entries near option levels without confirmation of real breakout. 📌 6. Nvidia and US Tech Rally: Anti-Yen Effect Nvidia’s results have boosted the entire US tech sector, causing a wave of risk-on. 🔍 Impact on FX: JPY and CHF weak on low interest in safe-haven assets. Great setups on AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, EUR/CHF long. 📌 7. China: PMI Above 50, Support for AUD/NZD Chinese manufacturing PMI data has returned above 50, signaling expansion. 🔍 Impact on FX: AUD and NZD find technical and macro support. Watch out for AUD/CHF, where macro divergences could generate a bearish reversal. 🧠 Forex Trading Strategy for the Next Week ✅ Strong Currencies: CAD (oil + risk-on sentiment) GBP (macro data + technical momentum) EUR (resilience on USD and supports held) ❌ Weak Currencies: USD (negative GDP, political uncertainty) JPY (no safe haven demand) AUD (potentially vulnerable on risk-on downside)
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Market next move 🔻 Disruption Scenarios: 1. Resistance Zone at Target Level The marked "Target" could coincide with a strong resistance level from a previous high. Price may reject this level again, forming a double top or bearish reversal candlestick pattern (e.g., shooting star or bearish engulfing). 2. Volume Divergence The recent uptrend shows a slight drop in buying volume. If price increases while volume decreases, it signals a potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. 3. Upcoming News Events (Fundamentals) The chart shows several upcoming economic events (news icons). Any negative surprise from U.S. data or positive Eurozone data could reverse the trend sharply. For example, better-than-expected U.S. employment data could strengthen the USD, pushing EUR/USD down. 4. Overbought Condition If we add an RSI (Relative Strength Index) or Stochastic oscillator, the price might already be in the overbought zone, suggesting a correction is due. 5. Fake Breakout Trap If the price hits the “Target” but then fails to close above it, it could be a bull trap, triggering short positions and leading to a sharp sell-off.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
EURUSD tested the Support line 1.12265 👀Possible scenario: The euro (EUR) dropped 0.32% on May 29, marking its third straight loss, after a U.S. court ruled Trump's reciprocal tariffs unlawful—beyond just the original plaintiffs. The decision, expected to be appealed, adds fresh uncertainty to U.S. trade policy and investor sentiment. Markets are also watching the U.S. Senate, where Trump’s tax and spending plan faces pushback. Meanwhile, the Fed’s latest minutes showed a cautious stance, citing inflation risks and possible rising unemployment—hinting at a delicate policy balance ahead. Focus now shifts to key U.S. data due May 29 at 12:30 p.m. UTC—GDP and jobless claims. Strong numbers could delay Fed rate cuts, pushing EUR/USD below 1.1180. Weak data may lift the euro above 1.1300. ✅Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.12265. Resistance level is located at 1.14220.
by MaxOnMarkets
Euro Weakens Near 1.1240 Amid Economic ReleasesEUR/USD extended its decline for a third straight session, trading near 1.1240 during Thursday’s Asian hours. Market attention is now turning to key upcoming U.S. economic releases, including Q1 Annualized GDP, quarterly PCE Prices, and weekly Jobless Claims. The U.S. dollar gained strength following a federal court decision on Wednesday, which blocked former President Trump’s attempt to enforce "Liberation Day" tariffs, ruling the measure unconstitutional and beyond presidential authority, according to a Manhattan court panel. The key resistance is located at 1.1290 and the first support stands at 1.1200.
by ChartMage
EURUSD PLAN – Is the Rebound Just a Pause Before the Drop? EURUSD PLAN – Is the Rebound Just a Pause Before the Drop? | All Eyes on PCE 📊 MACRO OUTLOOK: Following the latest FOMC meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, but maintained a hawkish tone. Chair Powell reiterated that inflation remains too sticky to consider rate cuts in the near term. Markets now await this week’s US PCE data — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — which could provide the next major catalyst for USD strength or weakness. On the Euro side, weak consumer confidence and tepid growth have strengthened expectations for an ECB rate cut in June. This divergence in monetary policy is weighing on the Euro, as the Dollar finds new demand amid global risk recalibration. 📉 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H1): EURUSD has broken down from recent highs near 1.1412 and is now forming a bearish retracement pattern. Price has broken below the 89-EMA and 200-EMA, signaling bearish structure. Current price action suggests a temporary bounce from the 1.1260–1.1280 support zone (Fibo 38.2%–50%), but the broader trend remains bearish. Fibonacci retracement from recent swing lows highlights 1.1338 and 1.1372 as key resistance levels to watch. 🔑 KEY TECHNICAL ZONES: Resistance Zones: • 1.1313 – Minor intraday level (Fibo 0.5) • 1.1338 – EMA confluence + former structure • 1.1372 – Major rejection zone (previous distribution top) Support Zones: • 1.1280 – 1.1260 – Current support bounce area • 1.1220 – Key liquidity sweep zone 🧭 TRADE STRATEGY: Scenario A – Sell the Pullback: • Wait for a rebound into the 1.1313 – 1.1338 zone • Enter SELL if bearish rejection forms • SL: 1.1376 • TP: 1.1280 → 1.1260 → 1.1220 Scenario B – Invalid Breakout: • If price breaks above 1.1372 with momentum, this plan is invalidated — wait for a confirmed breakout retest. Scenario C – Reactive Buy Scalp: • If price shows strong rejection from 1.1260 again, scalpers may consider a temporary BUY back toward 1.1300–1.1310 • This is high-risk and counter-trend. ⚠️ STRATEGIC NOTES: EURUSD remains in a bearish bias until major resistance levels are broken. With PCE data approaching, volatility is likely. Trade setups should be based on confirmation signals and managed tightly as macro data can shift momentum rapidly.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
EURUSD – Technical rebound, but bearish pressure still loomsAfter a sharp drop to the support zone around 1.12255, EURUSD has made a mild recovery and is now retesting the 1.13360 resistance area – which aligns with both the 34 and 89 EMAs. This confluence zone could trigger renewed selling pressure if price fails to break above. The 3-hour chart shows a zigzag-like recovery forming, but each new high is still lower than the previous one – indicating that the downtrend remains intact. If EURUSD continues to struggle at this resistance, it is likely to reverse and retest the 1.11910 support area. On the news front, markets are awaiting CPI data from both the Eurozone and the U.S. this week. If U.S. inflation comes in higher than expected, the dollar may continue to strengthen – increasing short-term downside pressure on EURUSD.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
EURUSD Tests 200-Hour SMA After 1.1425 RejectionEURUSD is sitting on the 200-hour simple moving average after failing to break the 1.1425 resistance. The implementation and then postponement of the proposed 50% tariffs on Europe added to short-term volatility. Formal trade talks between the EU and US are expected to begin soon. A green trend channel has now formed, with previously tested key support and resistance levels continuing to play a major role. EURUSD tends to test these key points at the same time with the trendlines. The next major level to watch is 1.1275, which aligns closely with the lower bound of the channel. As long as this level holds, a bullish reaction is possible. To the upside, 1.1375–1.1425 remains the critical resistance zone. If 1.1275 breaks, downside targets could include 1.1215 in the short term and the broader 1.1050–1.11 zone over the medium term.
by ftdsystem
EUR/USD Bounce From Key Demand Zone | Short-Term Bullish SetupEUR/USD has just tapped into a well-defined Demand Zone between 1.12271 – 1.12600, showing aggressive buying pressure on the wick — a classic liquidity grab and bounce scenario. 📌 Bullish Confluences: 🟤 Deep tap into Demand Zone + aggressive wick rejection. 🟩 High probability reversal after stop-hunt. 🔵 Price forming higher low structure. 🔄 Clean imbalance/fair value gap above (room for recovery). --- 🎯 Bullish Targets: 1. 📍 1.13231 – Mid-range resistance and minor supply. 2. 📍 1.14018 – Major Supply Zone (swing TP). 🧠 Trade Idea: Long from 1.12600 area with tight SL under 1.12250, targeting 1.132xx or higher. R:R = 🔥 if managed properly. --- 📅 Fundamental Alerts: 🏛️ Upcoming US + EU news (marked on chart) = potential volatility spike. 🧭 Consider scaling out partials if key events flip sentiment. --- 🧠 Strategy Type: Scalp/Intraday with momentum confirmation + demand zone logic. --- 📢 Are You Bullish or Still Bearish? This could be a short-term push before bigger decisions from central banks. What’s your view? 💬 Drop your analysis below, and don't forget to like/follow if this helped your trading plan! --- #EURUSD #ForexSignals #PriceAction #SupplyAndDemand #SmartMoney #OrderBlocks #Scalping #IntradayTrade #ForexStrategy #TradingView
Long
by FrankFx14
EURUSD: Breaks Down : Is 1.11000 the Next Target?OANDA:EURUSD continues to follow its bearish trajectory after rejecting resistance within a clearly defined descending channel. At this key level, price formed a converging triangle pattern and has now broken to the downside, confirming strong selling pressure. If sellers maintain control at this zone, we could see price fall toward 1.11000, a key support level that aligns well as a short-term target within the current bearish market structure. However, failure to break below this support could invalidate the bearish outlook and signal a potential recovery. Traders should monitor for bearish confirmation signals, such as weak pullbacks, lower highs, or increasing sell volume before entering short positions. If you agree with this outlook or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by LucasMgoldview
1
Eurusd has the potential to Sell (short)Eurusd has the potential to sell all the way down to 1.09134 for a nice swing trade . we also have a head and shoulder pattern that was formed , and that already broke the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern . Price decided to go bullish for some time but I think we got a full correction to the upside before the impulsive move back down, which is what I'm expecting but my first Area to target would be 1.110654 . It is a strong Area of interest so I will be expecting price to react from that level before reaching its final target .
by mactradesalot
Market next move Current Analysis Breakdown: Pair: EUR/USD on a 1-hour timeframe. Recent Action: Sharp decline with a small bullish reversal candle. Assumption: A potential bounce or reversal targeting the area marked as "Target." Volume: Increased during the decline and slightly bullish at the last candle. Technical Area: The “Target” is set above the current price, implying a bullish move is expected. --- Disrupting the Analysis: Let’s introduce potential bearish or contrarian scenarios to question the bullish target assumption: 1. False Reversal / Dead Cat Bounce The small green candle after a strong red volume drop could simply be a temporary retracement or a dead cat bounce—a short-lived recovery before the price resumes falling. 2. Volume Analysis Contradiction While volume has increased, the spike occurred mostly during red candles (bearish). This indicates strong selling pressure, not accumulation. The green candle’s volume is relatively small, suggesting weak buyer interest.
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
Long Setup in Play"If price moves toward higher highs before reaching the entry zone, the probability of a successful trade decreases." 🔍 My Trading Approach: My trading and analysis are primarily based on market liquidity and how price tends to move toward areas where liquidity is pooled. I use two main concepts in my strategy: Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) to identify setups and entry zones Measured Moves (MMs) to define target levels 🎯 Profit-Taking Rule: I usually secure profits once price has moved at least 1.5 times the initial stop-loss distance in my favor. FOREXCOM:EURUSD
Long
by sir_eric98