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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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UPDATE ON EUR/USD 10% RETURNS!!EUR/USD 15M - Just back with another update before I head out and deal with some personal matters, as you can see price has continued to play out well during the start of the London Session. I expect this to continue during the NY, we may experience a pullback to clear some orders below but I believe price will continue this momentum to the upside, eventually trading us into the Supply Zone above. This trade is running + 205 pips. (+ 10%) 10RR A huge well done to anyone involved in this trade, please ensure you are taking partials throughout your position and applying safety measures to maximise profits. Any questions as always people drop me a message or comment below and I will get back to you as soon as I can, happy trading people!!
Long
by Lukegforex
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 5, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD pressed the gas pedal and rose 1.4% on Tuesday, climbing 140 pips in a single session as markets sold off the US dollar and bet that US President Donald Trump will find a reason to backtrack on his tariff threats. Key data for both Europe and the US is due out later this week, but trade war rhetoric will rule the roost in the middle of the week. US President Donald Trump, staying true to form, is already laying the groundwork for a U-turn on his own tariff threats. At midnight Eastern Time, a package of stiff tariffs of 25% on imported goods from Canada and Mexico went into effect. However, despite a brief bout of risk aversion early in the U.S. session, currency markets quickly regained their footing and placed a big bet on another retraction or postponement of tariff policy from the Trump administration. Economic data will be sparse in the European market mid-week as traders in the vols are wringing their hands in anticipation of two beats - the European Central Bank's (ECB) March rate meeting on Thursday, and the latest iteration of U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data scheduled for Friday. This week's NFP data is likely to attract even more attention than usual as investors will begin to watch for any signs of economic weakness as consumers and businesses begin to crack under the weight of President Trump's global trade war threats. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by another quarter of a percent on Thursday, bringing the main discount rate to 2.65% from 2.9%, while the deposit rate is expected to fall by a similar amount to 2.5% from 2.75% as the ECB tries to get ahead of rising recession risks and support the EU's broad and diverse domestic economy. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.06100, SL 1.05700, TP 1.06800
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
UPDATE ON EUR/USD TRADEEUR/USD 15M - As you can see price is playing out well up to now. I want to see a continuation in bullishness trading us right up and into the Supply Zone marked above, this gives us a great TP target. I am expecting price to go on and break the last high set to create a new higher high. Once price has done that it will further confirm the continuation in bullish structure. This trade is currently running + 32 pips. (+ 1.5%) 1.5RR A big well done to those of you who jumped onboard, if you have any questions or need anything drop me a message or comment below and I will get back to you as soon as possible. With price absorbing the last area of Supply, breaking and retesting thats what gave us the confluence to buy into this market riding price higher.
Long
by Lukegforex
EUR/USD ahead of ECB’s rate decision on ThursdayCurrent Market Sentiment: The EUR/USD currency pair is trading in a neutral range, with recent price action moving sideways. The key level to watch is 1.0530, which could dictate the next directional move. Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above 1.0530 could trigger a bullish move, leading to further upside momentum. If buyers sustain control, the next resistance levels to watch are: 1.0590 – Initial resistance, where profit-taking or consolidation may occur. 1.0650 – A stronger resistance level, potentially capping further gains unless a sustained bullish trend develops. A break above 1.0650 could signal a broader trend shift toward higher levels. Bearish Scenario: If EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.0530 and faces selling pressure, a downside retracement could follow. In that case, the key support levels are: 1.0480 – Initial downside target, where buyers may attempt to stabilize the pair. 1.0425 – A deeper support zone, where renewed demand could emerge. 1.0357 – A major support level, a break below which could confirm further bearish momentum. Conclusion: The 1.0530 level remains a critical pivot for the next directional move. A breakout above it could fuel bullish momentum, while rejection and selling pressure could lead to a deeper pullback. Traders should monitor price action around this level to determine the next trend direction. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
EUR/USD Trend Today - Further Upward?🔔🔔🔔EUR/USD news: 👉President Trump has imposed tariffs of 25% on North American trade partners and an additional 10% on China in response to the influx of fentanyl into the US. Speaking to reporters on Monday, he stated, “There’s no room left for Mexico or Canada,” and confirmed that the tariffs would take effect the following day. 👉In response, China has announced retaliatory tariffs on various US agricultural imports, set to take effect on March 10. The escalating trade restrictions between the US, China, and neighboring countries have fueled concerns about a global trade war, posing risks to the global economic outlook. 👉Investors anticipate that Trump’s tariff policies will contribute to inflation in the US economy, as importers are likely to pass higher costs onto consumers. 👉Meanwhile, The Euro is benefiting from Europe’s diplomatic efforts to end the three-year-long war in Ukraine, with leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, working on a peace plan. Optimism over a potential truce between Russia and Ukraine has strengthened the Euro’s appeal, as it is expected to restore stability in the Eurozone’s supply chain. Personal opinion: 👉EUR/USD continues to rise today as news about the trade war makes investors worried 👉Technically, RSI (1H) is entering the extreme zone, need to consider the possibility of a reversal Analysis: 👉Based on important resistance - support levels and Fibonacci levels combined with SMA to come up with a suitable strategy Plan: 🔆 Price Zone Setup: 👉Sell EUR/USD 1.0460 – 1.0480 ❌SL: 1.0425 | ✅TP: 1.0520 – 1.0550 – 1.0600 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Long
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
EURUSD InsightHello, subscribers! It's great to see you all. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - U.S. President Trump signed an order imposing a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico starting on the 4th and an additional 20% tariff on China, including an extra 10%. - At an informal summit chaired by U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, major European nations decided to promote the "Coalition of Willing," a security consultative body aimed at expanding defense spending. - China's Two Sessions (the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference) will be held starting on the 4th, with attention focused on whether a large-scale fiscal stimulus plan will be included. Major Economic Events This Week + March 5: U.S. February ADP Non-Farm Employment Change + March 6: ECB Interest Rate Decision + March 7: U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Fed Chair Powell's Speech EUR/USD Chart Analysis Recently, the price faced resistance around the 1.05000 level, leading to a significant pullback. However, after successfully rebounding, it is now attempting to break through the resistance once again. The likelihood of a breakout in this upward move appears very high, and if successful, further gains toward the 1.08000 level can be expected.
Long
by shawntime_academy
EUR/USD 1H Analysis: EMA 200 Retest & Fibonacci Pullback – Key LKey Observations: Ascending Wedge Breakout & Price Surge The price broke out of a wedge pattern (green shaded area) with strong bullish momentum. A strong rally led to a new local high (~1.0489). Fibonacci Retracement Levels The price is pulling back from the high, and Fibonacci retracement levels are marked. Key levels to watch: 0.618 (1.04385) – Strong support 0.5 (1.04238) – Moderate support 0.382 (1.04091) – First level of reaction EMA 200 Retest (~1.04467) The 200 EMA (blue line) is acting as dynamic support. The expectation (noted on the chart) is that price may touch or react at the EMA 200. If it holds, it could trigger another bullish push. If it breaks below EMA 200, further downside toward Fib 0.618 or 0.786 retracement is possible. Potential Bearish Rejection (Red Arrows) The red arrows suggest a possible lower high formation, meaning the price could reject from EMA 200 and start a deeper drop. Volume Analysis Increasing volume suggests strong participation. If volume remains high near EMA 200, we might see a breakout or a strong bounce. Potential Trade Scenarios: Bullish Case (Buy Trade) If price holds above EMA 200 (~1.04467) and forms a bullish reaction, a long trade could target: First target: 1.0489 (previous high). Second target: 1.0500+ (psychological level). Stop Loss: Below 1.0435 (below Fib 0.618). Bearish Case (Sell Trade) If price fails at EMA 200 and forms a lower high, it could drop toward: First target: 1.0430 (Fib 0.5). Second target: 1.0409 (Fib 0.382). Third target: 1.0390 (Fib 0.236). Stop Loss: Above 1.0460 (above EMA 200). Conclusion: EMA 200 is the key level to watch. Bullish bias above EMA 200; Bearish bias below. If EMA 200 holds, buying could be a good strategy. If it fails, further downside is expected. Would you like a precise trade setup based on this? 🚀
by KingProTrader
EURUSD: Awaiting a Deeper Correction for Optimal EntryOn the 15-minute chart, it looks like we have completed the first wave, and we are now in a corrective phase. However, this correction, despite reaching the level of the previous 4th wave, has not yet retraced 38.2% on the Fibonacci scale. For an optimal entry, it would be preferable for the correction to extend slightly deeper, ideally reaching the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, as indicated by the arrows. This would provide a more structured setup before considering new positions.
Short
by The_Traders_Memoirs
EUR/USD: Bearish Momentum Builds Ahead of Key Data📆 Market Analysis (March 3, 2025) – European and US Trading Session At the time of writing, OANDA:EURUSD is trading around 1.04040, facing bearish pressure after failing to sustain recent rebounds. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming economic releases and geopolitical developments, which may significantly impact market sentiment. 📊 Technical Analysis: Price Action & Indicators 1. Daily Chart (D1) – Macro Trend Perspective 📉 Bearish Bias: The daily timeframe shows a clear downtrend, with a lower-high structure intact. 🔥 Key Resistance: 1.0500 – 1.0550 (strong supply zone where sellers have previously stepped in). 🏆 Key Support: 1.0350 – 1.0300 (psychological level and recent demand zone). 📊 Indicators: RSI (Relative Strength Index): At 47.97, showing weak bullish momentum, but still below the neutral 50 level, suggesting continued downside risk. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Bearish crossover confirmed, with histogram showing increasing selling pressure. Volume Analysis: Recent price drops were accompanied by increasing bearish volume, indicating strong seller participation. 2. 4H Chart (H4) – Medium-Term Trend 📉 Bearish Momentum: Price is forming a descending structure, with lower highs and lower lows. 🔄 RSI: Currently at 38.34, approaching oversold levels, indicating a possible short-term bounce before further decline. 📈 MACD: Bearish cross has occurred, but the histogram is starting to flatten, suggesting selling pressure might be slowing. 3. 1H Chart (H1) – Short-Term Outlook ⏳ Rebound or Further Drop? Price recently bounced from 1.0380, but rejection at 1.0420 suggests weak buying momentum. 📌 Support Levels to Watch: 1.0380 – 1.0350 🚀 Resistance Levels: 1.0420 – 1.0450 ⚡ RSI Divergence? Short-term RSI is rising while price remains stagnant, indicating a potential short-term reversal before further decline. 🌍 Fundamental Analysis: Key Market Drivers Eurozone Inflation Data (CPI) 🏦: Expected this week, which will shape ECB’s next policy move. US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) 📊: A strong report could further strengthen the USD. Geopolitical Uncertainty 🌎: Global risk sentiment favors the USD as a safe haven. 📈 Trading Strategy: Fuinvest’s Trade Setup 🔹 Scenario 1: Short Position (Bearish Bias) Entry: Sell at 1.0420 – 1.0450 Stop Loss (SL): 1.0480 (Above recent highs) Take Profit (TP): 1.0350 – 1.0320 (Key support zone) Risk-Reward Ratio: 📉 1:3 (High probability trade setup) 🔹 Scenario 2: Reversal Trade (Short-Term Bullish Bounce) Entry: Buy at 1.0350 – 1.0380 Stop Loss (SL): 1.0320 (Below major support) Take Profit (TP): 1.0450 (Near-term resistance) Risk-Reward Ratio: 📈 1:2 (Short-term retracement play) 🎯 Conclusion & Final Thoughts 📉 Bearish sentiment dominates, but a short-term rebound could occur before further declines. 🔥 Key economic data this week will be crucial in determining the next major move. 📌 Fuinvest recommends a cautious trading approach, with tight risk management. 💡 Follow Fuinvest for daily market insights & trade setups! 🚀📈
by fuinvest