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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR/USD Approaches Major Supply Zone – Reversal Imminent?EUR/USD is testing a key supply zone near 1.1380 – 1.1443 – a historical level where price has previously reversed sharply. With price stalling at this resistance, traders should prepare for potential downside opportunities if rejection confirms. Key Levels: Resistance/Supply Zone: 1.1380 – 1.1443 First Target Zone: 1.0902 Major Demand/Buy Zone: 1.0290 (highlighted in orange with visible volume support) Bearish Confluence: Repeated rejection at this price range in the past Clean demand imbalances below (price may rebalance) Psychological resistance around 1.1400 Potential bearish divergence forming on RSI/H4 MACD (not shown) Trade Idea: Looking to short near the top of the supply zone with stops above 1.1450. Targeting 1.0902 first, and deeper drop to 1.0290 if momentum confirms. Invalidation: Strong breakout above 1.1450 with volume and bullish continuation. Questions for the Community: Do you see this as a double-top formation? Are you bullish or bearish on EUR/USD going into June? #EURUSD #ForexAnalysis #SmartMoney #SupplyAndDemand #PriceAction #LuxAlgo #SwingTrade #ReversalSetup #TradingView #FXStrategy
by FrankFx14
#AN002 Latest World News and Forex Impact Hello, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk about how recent global geopolitical tensions are radically changing the international currency balance. In Forex, every crisis is a map of opportunities, but only those who analyze the global context can truly understand where capital will move. In this article, we analyze the main events of the week and reflect on how they could affect currencies in the coming days. 🇮🇳🇵🇰 India and Pakistan: risk of escalation across the border After a terrorist attack in Kashmir that caused 26 civilian casualties, India launched “Operation Sindoor” targeting extremist groups across the border. Pakistan responded militarily with “Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos”. Both countries used drones and cruise missiles. Despite a ceasefire declared on May 10, the truce is fragile. The risk of a tactical nuclear crisis is real today. 🔍 Forex Impact: Strong pressure on the Indian rupee (USD/INR up) and increased demand for safe haven currencies such as CHF and JPY. 🇵🇸🇮🇱 Israel-Gaza: urban warfare resumes Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip have intensified, aiming for complete control of the area. Hundreds of civilian casualties have been reported. Italy and other members of the Madrid+ Group are calling for a ceasefire, proposing an Arab plan for reconstruction. 🔍 Forex Impact: In the acute phase, gold (XAU/USD) and the US dollar are strengthening. The NIS (Israeli shekel) is showing signs of weakness, especially if the conflict extends to Lebanon or Syria. 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia: is a glimmer of hope opening up again? Donald Trump spoke by phone with Vladimir Putin and other international leaders, including Giorgia Meloni, proposing the Vatican as a venue for new negotiations. Although the war continues mainly in Zaporizhzhia and the eastern region, diplomacy is back on the table. 🔍 Forex Impact: If the talks materialize, the EUR/USD could strengthen. If not, instability will further favor safe-haven currencies and weakness of the euro. 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso: the forgotten war The jihadist group JNIM has carried out coordinated attacks in several cities in the north of the country, causing dozens of deaths and temporarily conquering the city of Djibo. The humanitarian crisis is worsening and the Sahel region remains among the most unstable in the world. 🔍 Forex Impact: Direct impacts marginal, but emerging African currencies continue to suffer from systemic instability and capital flight. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 US and China: new economic frictions The second Trump administration has imposed new duties on Chinese products, exacerbating trade relations. The European Union, meanwhile, is seeking rebalancing by strengthening ties with Beijing. The global context is once again multipolar. 🔍 Impact on Forex: USD still strong in the short term, but growing tensions with China could weaken the USD/CNH and strengthen the CNY if Beijing responds with targeted monetary stimulus. ✝️ Vatican and new spiritual diplomacy The new Pope, Leo XIV, is prioritizing migration and poverty. The Vatican proposes itself as a neutral venue for peace mediations, as in the Ukraine-Russia case. The Church returns to being a geopolitical actor. 🔍 Impact on Forex: Symbolic but relevant: the idea of ​​Rome as a diplomatic center strengthens the perceived stability of the euro area. 📉 Italian GDP: growth slows According to ISTAT, Italian GDP is falling in 2025. The causes? Industrial slowdown, residual inflation and uncertain global climate. However, public accounts are improving and employment remains stable. 🔍 Impact on Forex: EUR under pressure awaiting new ECB estimates. The spread remains under observation. 🧭 Final reflection: Forex and geopolitics, an inseparable pair Geopolitical tensions are not background noise, but waves that move billions. Smart traders don't just read charts: they read the world. The fragility of international relations and ongoing conflicts will lead to a new polarization of Forex: on one side, safe haven currencies (JPY, CHF, USD in shock phases), on the other, emerging and cyclical currencies that are increasingly vulnerable. Those who want to navigate this market must be prepared to react not to data, but to events that change data.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
eurusd 15mThe chart you provided is a 15-minute EUR/USD (Euro to US Dollar) price chart. Here’s a breakdown of the analysis shown: Downtrend: A descending black trendline marks a recent downward movement in price. Reversal Possibility: Price seems to be stabilizing, potentially forming a base after the downtrend. Target Zone: Marked in green, with a target price of 1.14194. Scenarios: Green Arrow: Bullish scenario where the price rises from the current level and reaches the target zone. Red Arrows: Bearish alternative, showing potential rejection from the target zone and a return to the current or lower price levels. This chart suggests a bullish bias toward the 1.14194 level, possibly as a retest of previous resistance, but also cautions for a pullback if price gets rejected at that level. If you’d like, I can help assess the probability of each scenario based on technical indicators or current market conditions.
Long
by Rich_trader01
EUR/USD VENTAS para hoy dia fesstivo en EstEUR/USD in SELL Today Hello, traders, Today I’m taking sell positions on the EUR/USD pair. Despite the U.S. holiday, which means lower volume, I see a clear opportunity for a continued bearish move. Price is showing weakness, and my technical analysis supports a further drop. Caution: because it’s a holiday, the market may show erratic moves or liquidity traps. Proper risk management is essential. This is my personal entry for today, and I expect more downside pressure throughout the day. Wishing everyone good pips.
Short
by edisonjavierrey
EURUSD long Entry Opportunity from Support Zone"EURUSD Long Entry Opportunity from Support Zone" This means that the EUR/USD currency pair (Euro vs. US Dollar) is currently approaching or sitting at a support zone, which is a price level where buying interest is expected to be strong enough to prevent the price from falling further. Traders often look at such zones as potential areas where the price might bounce or reverse upward, offering an opportunity to enter a long (buy) position. A "long entry" refers to opening a buy trade, anticipating that the price will go up from the current level. The idea is to buy low at support and potentially sell later at a higher price (resistance or target level). This setup usually includes: Confirmation signals such as bullish candlestick patterns, RSI divergence, or volume support. Risk management with stop-loss orders placed just below the support zone. Profit targets based on resistance levels or previous highs. In summary, the phrase suggests a possible buying opportunity on EURUSD, based on technical analysis indicating that the current price is near a strong support level.
Long
by tavakolighanbar
VIEW: EURUSD-Cut your losses short and let your winners run. -The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient. -In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable. -Trade what you see, not what you think. CONFIRMATION -Price is bullish -Strong order block -BOS -Liquidity sweep -FVG filled -Price retraced NB: Do not ever compare yourself to other traders. Take regular breaks from trading Maintain a trading journal Love your craft Learn from other successful traders.
by koolytrades
EURUSD: PCE and EU trade tariffsAlthough this week there has not been currently significant macro data set for a release, the market volatility was reflecting fundamentals, mostly related to actuel narrative around trade tariffs. The US Administration was commenting on the possibility of setting a 50% trade tariff on goods coming from the EU, which brought back higher volatility on financial markets, and impacted the drop in value of US Dollar. As for macro data posted during the week, the Existing Home Sales reached 4M in May, which was a change of -0,5% for the previous month. At the same time, New Home Sales in April were higher by 10,9% in April compared to the previous month. The final inflation rate in the Euro Zone in April was standing at 0,6% in April, and 2,2% on a yearly level. The PPI in Germany in April dropped by -0,6% for the month, bringing the indicator down by -0,9% on a yearly basis. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for May in Germany was standing at 48,8, while the same indicator in the Euro Zone reached 49,4, and was in line with market expectations. The Ifo Business Climate in May in Germany reached 87,5 and was in line with forecast. The GDP Growth rate final for Q1 in Germany was 0,4%, higher from estimated 0,2% for the quarter. At the same time the GDP growth for the year reached 0%, and was a bit better from forecasted -0,2%. The previous week was promising to be a calm one when macro data were in question, however, the higher volatility was induced by fundamentals, related to the narrative regarding trade tariffs. The eurusd currency pair was traded between levels of 1,1166 up to 1,1365. The RSI ended the week at the level of 58, but set the path toward the higher grounds, eyeing the overbought market side. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, indicating that the potential cross is not in the store for some time in the future. Current charts are pointing toward the relatively weaker short term resistance level at 1,1380. In case that this level is breached to the upside in the week ahead, then the eurusd will head toward the 1,1480 which is the historical resistance line for the eurusd pair. In this scenario, it would mark a double top formation in technical analysis from which short term reversal could be expected. The second option is that the market starts weekly trading in a more relaxed mode, and revert from current levels. In this case, the next stop of the currency pair will be around the level of 1,1280. Still, it should be considered that the narrative around tariffs on EU goods will continue in a week ahead, which will bring some higher volatility and the PCE data are set for release which could be another trigger for volatility. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: GfK Consumer Confidence in June for Germany, Unemployment rate in in Germany in May, Retail Sales in April in Germany, Inflation rate preliminary for May in Germany, USD: Durable Goods Orders in April, CB Consumer Confidence in May, FOMC Meeting Minutes, GDP Growth rate for Q1, second estimate, PCE Price Index in April, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for May.
by XBTFX
1.15150 Resistance Looms Amid EU Economic WoesOn the daily timeframe, EURUSD continues climbing toward the strong resistance zone around 1.15150 after a solid rebound from the EMA 34. However, the current candlestick structure shows signs of slowing momentum as price approaches a historically significant top — a zone prone to short-term profit-taking. The technical setup becomes even more relevant when viewed alongside macroeconomic developments: the U.S. has just announced an extension of its 50% tariff deadline on EU goods from June 1 to July 9, temporarily easing trade tensions. However, the European Commission has revised down its Eurozone growth forecast for 2025 from 1.3% to 0.9%, highlighting persistent structural weaknesses and economic risks in the region. The likely scenario: EURUSD may face rejection at 1.15150, followed by a pullback toward the support area around 1.09610. This zone aligns with the EMA 34, EMA 89, and a previous accumulation range. If this support fails to hold, the medium-term trend could shift clearly to the downside.
by Rocky_trade_
Market next target Original Analysis Summary: Support area at ~1.1400 holding price. Expectation: Bounce off support and continuation to higher target. Arrows indicate a bullish bias after minor retracement. --- Disruptive Bearish Interpretation: 1. Exhaustion at Top: Strong upward rally could be showing signs of buying exhaustion, especially after the sharp vertical move. The current top wick suggests rejection from higher levels. 2. Bearish Reversal Candles: If a shooting star or bearish engulfing pattern forms near the target area, it could signal a reversal. The current candle shows a long wick, which often precedes pullbacks. 3. False Breakout Risk: The price could have broken above a resistance level only to trap breakout buyers before reversing downward. This would trigger a move below the red box (support area).
Long
by Gold_Free_Signals
EURUSD Trendline Breakout – Bullish Target Ahead EURUSD has successfully broken out of a strong descending trendline, which was acting as dynamic resistance for weeks. The breakout is backed by strong bullish candles and clear higher lows forming. After the breakout, the price also reclaimed a key horizontal support zone around 1.12573, turning it into a solid base for further upside. 🎯 Bullish Target (Expected): First major bullish target at 1.13864 based on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the last swing move. 📌 Support: 1.12573 📌 Breakout Confirmation: Valid as long as price holds above the trendline and support. 📈 Outlook: The momentum looks strong for further bullish continuation. If the price holds above the breakout zone, we expect a move toward 1.13864 in the coming sessions.
Long
by ClearTradingMind
Eurusd monthly tradin bias 📌 EUR/USD Monthly Outlook – Accumulation to Distribution Phase The monthly chart reveals a significant transition: EUR/USD appears to have completed a classic accumulation and manipulation phase and is now entering a distribution phase, targeting buy-side liquidity above key relative equal highs. 📍 Key Observations: Price swept the previous sell-side liquidity (SSL) and rebalanced within a monthly fair value gap (MFVG). Strong bullish momentum broke structure to the upside, aligning with the macro distribution narrative. The recent mitigation of an order block and move through buy-side liquidity (BSL) confirms the directional shift. 🕵️‍♂️ What to Monitor: Lower timeframes (H4 / Daily) may present pullback entries or continuation setups in line with this bullish expansion. Look for entries on retracements within PD arrays or refined imbalances. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This idea is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and manage risk responsibly. #EURUSD #SmartMoney #Forex #ICTConcepts #MarketStructure #DistributionPhase #TechnicalAnalysis #FXTrading #TradingView
Long
by WAKAHALF
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