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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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Lingrid | EURUSD High-Probability Shorting OpportunityThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It hit the target. FX:EURUSD is currently moving sideways following a significant bearish downturn in autumn. I believe the market will remain in this consolidation zone for a while, as it typically consolidates after such substantial movements. However, if the price retests the channel boundary and rebounds from it, there is a greater likelihood that it will move down, from the resisatnce zone and channel border within the major bearsih trend. My goal is support zone around 1.04300 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Short
by Lingrid
2
US Tariffs: Deflationary Risk for Europe?EURUSD faces a crucial week, marked by key economic events and trade tensions. As US protectionist policies under President-elect Donald Trump could intensify deflationary pressures in Europe. Impact of U.S. tariffs While tariffs are often associated with inflation, in Europe they could have the opposite effect due to limited exposure to U.S. imports and their indirect impact on growth and employment. U.S. imports account for only 10% of the total in the Eurozone, with consumer goods barely reaching 6%, limiting the direct impact on prices. However, a 10% across-the-board tariff could reduce economic growth in the Eurozone by 0.3%, affecting employment and wages in key sectors such as manufacturing. On the export side, lower demand for European goods from the U.S. and China could deepen economic problems, although the eurozone previously benefited from the reorientation of global trade. In addition, previous trade disputes showed that a surge in Chinese imports into Europe contributed to disinflationary pressures. ECB meeting this Thursday The European Central Bank (ECB) will address a complicated environment of high uncertainty this Thursday, with trade tensions and signs of economic weakness. While no rate changes are expected, statements on the impact of trade tensions and the growth outlook will be crucial in determining the direction of the euro, the tone of the statements will be key to market expectations. A more cautious stance could weaken the euro, while any hint of optimism could give the currency a slight respite. Monetary policy could remain accommodative if economic projections continue to deteriorate. German trade balance on Friday Friday's release of Germany's trade balance will offer a signal on the health of Europe's economic engine. A larger surplus could support the euro, but an unexpected deficit, combined with tariff concerns, would reinforce negative sentiment about the eurozone economy. Between trade tensions and macroeconomic data, EUR/USD could experience high volatility this week, reflecting growing concerns about the European economic outlook. Progress on the Mercosur-EU agreement This weekend, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, concluded a free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. The first attempt was formally launched in 1999, in negotiations that began as part of a broader cooperation framework established in 1995 (Framework Agreement on Interregional Cooperation). The agreement did not close despite looking promising on its last occasion as it faced multiple interruptions over the years due to disagreements in key areas such as agricultural products, industrial market access, environmental rules and labor rights. After intermittent negotiations, a preliminary agreement was announced in 2019, although its implementation is still pending due to debates over environmental issues. This time the agreement has generated very explosive messages from the Spanish agricultural camp and full opposition from Emmanuel Macron, the current main drivers being Germany and Spain. If finalized, it could boost trade and offer economic respite to both regions. A favorable agreement would strengthen European exports to Latin America, offsetting some of the negative effects of trade tensions with the US. Technical Aspect Looking at the 1H. chart, since December 9-10 the market has made a strong upward price recovery rally, with very high trading volume on the current trading day to the upside. The directionality of the euro seems to be trying to recover 1.05996 with the current price at 1.05641. The moving average is determining a possible opening in an upward direction, despite the checkpoint being around 1.05241. RSI is currently in its middle zone at 52.77%. In this environment full of uncertainties, EURUSD could experience high volatility, reflecting the interplay between trade challenges, ECB decisions and the potential breakthrough in the Mercosur-EU treaty. Ion Jauregui - Activtrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
by ActivTrades
EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations. --- Eurozone: Fragility Persists Industrial and Consumer Weakness Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects. PMI and GDP Concerns The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB's Dovish Tilt ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook. --- United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges: Economic and Labor Market Data The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode. The labor market also remains a pillar of strength - Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k). - Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling. Fed's Monetary Policy Path Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report. Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability. --- Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience: - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%). - Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8). Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach. Key Factors Driving EUR/USD: 1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance. 2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals. 3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy. While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Short
by InvestMate
1
EURUSD Daily Pivot Points Analysis 06-Dec-2024📣EURUSD Daily Pivot Points Analysis 06-Dec-2024 Over the last two weeks, EURUSD has managed to hold the Daily Pivot Point, showing a small pause in the bearish trend. In the past three days, EURUSD has closed three bullish candles in a row, indicating an increase in bullish momentum. The last daily candle also closed bullish, suggesting further growth. EURUSD may rise today in anticipation of weaker NFP data. The resistance/target zones can be found at the Daily Resistance levels: Daily R1 - 1.0613, Daily R2 - 1.0642, and Daily R3 - 1.0695. From these areas, the price may move down to the previous support area or test the pivot point zone. --------------------------------------------------------------- EURUSD Daily Pivot Points 06-Dec-2024 Daily R3 - 1.0619 Daily R2 - 1..0582 Daily R1 - 1.0547 Daily Pivot Point - 1.0510 Daily S1 - 1.0475 Daily S2 - 1.0438 Daily S3 - 1.0403 --------------------------------------------------------------- A pivot point is an intraday technical indicator that's used to identify trends and reversals in equities, commodities, and forex markets. Pivot points are calculated to determine levels in which the sentiment of the market could change from bullish to bearish and vice-versa. --------------------------------------------------------------- You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Long
by KlejdiCuni
4
EURUSDKey Observations: Support and Resistance Zones: There is a clearly established support zone around 1.0500, which coincides with prior lows and strong buying activity. Resistance levels are seen around 1.0600 (immediate resistance) and higher at 1.0700 if bullish momentum builds. Trend Analysis: The daily chart indicates a downtrend, but recent consolidation around the 1.0500 zone suggests potential for a reversal or a corrective move upward. On lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h), there is consolidation within the range of 1.0500-1.0550. Indicators: RSI: RSI levels below 40 indicate bearish pressure, but potential divergence could suggest an upcoming bullish move. MACD: The MACD shows minimal momentum, indicating a consolidation phase. Moving Averages: The price is below the 200 EMA on higher timeframes, reinforcing the bearish structure. On shorter timeframes, the 50 EMA and 200 EMA are nearing a crossover, which could hint at bullish momentum in the short term. Strategy and Recommendations: Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Entry: Consider buying if the price breaks above 1.0550 with strong volume. Targets: Target 1: 1.0600 (immediate resistance). Target 2: 1.0700 (next resistance zone if momentum sustains). Stop Loss: Below 1.0480 to account for potential fakeouts. Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation Entry: Sell if the price decisively breaks below 1.0500 with increased volume. Targets: Target 1: 1.0450 (next support level). Target 2: 1.0400 (key psychological level). Stop Loss: Above 1.0550 to protect against reversals. Recommended Approach: Short-Term Traders: Focus on breakouts above 1.0550 or below 1.0500 for clear momentum trades. Swing Traders: Await confirmation on daily candles around the 1.0500 support zone to determine if a reversal or continuation occurs. Risk Management: Always ensure a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2 and limit exposure to avoid over-leverage in volatile conditions.
by DerrickJerry
Mastering The Timing Of Trade Exits In Trading Most newbie traders tend to focus on the entry point of a trade, believing that as long as they initiate a position correctly, they can manage their way to a profit later. They often think, “It’s okay if I earn a little; I can always close the trade once the price moves in my favor.” Unfortunately, this mindset often leads to disappointing outcomes. Traders may find themselves either underwhelmed by their gains due to greed—thinking, “Just a little longer, and I’ll secure my profits”—or missing the exit altogether, resulting in a break-even scenario. The situation becomes even trickier when prices move against the trader. Many cling to the hope of a miraculous turnaround, refusing to acknowledge their losses, and instead, they adjust their stop-loss orders, convinced that the market must eventually rebound. This often leads to further losses as they watch their deposits dwindle. To avoid these pitfalls, it's crucial to understand when to close a trade for maximum benefit, as explored in this post. 📍 Strategic Approaches to Closing Trades Closing a trade effectively requires timing it neither too early nor too late. Premature exits can lead to missed opportunities for profit, while waiting too long can result in significant losses. 📍 When to Close Trades? • Identifying Reversal Patterns: Recognizing patterns that indicate a reversal is essential. For instance, during an uptrend, buyers eventually taper off because prices become too high. Those who bought at the onset may begin selling, and if a pinbar forms followed by a bearish engulfing model, this is a clear signal to close before a downturn. • Combining Signals from Indicators: Utilize multiple indicators to gauge the market trend. If trend indicators show a downturn and oscillators indicate overbought conditions, it may be time to close a long position. Patterns and signals should work in concert for the best results. • Following Risk Management Strategies: Tailor your exit strategy to your risk management plan. Strategies could include setting a take-profit level at 50-60% of daily volatility or maintaining a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3. • Using Risk Management Calculations: This involves observing the pip value and the 1.0-2.0% rule. For example, if your account has a balance of $1,000, limit your loss on any trade to $100 based on the volume of the trade. Accordingly, your take profit should be 2%-3% or more. • Monitoring Candlestick Patterns: A shift in the strength of candlestick bodies can indicate a forthcoming reversal. If you see a consistent decline in candlestick sizes during a price breakout, this can be a cue for an imminent trend shift. • Paying Attention to Key Levels: Many traders place pending orders around key support and resistance levels. Understanding that price may not reach these levels can inform your take-profit and stop-loss placement. • Before Major News Releases: Anticipate how significant news might impact the market. Though there may be statistical predictions, volatility can be unpredictable. Closing trades in advance can help manage unexpected market movements. • At the End of Trading Cycles: Prior to weekends or before the day ends, consider closing positions. This is crucial as weekend events can dramatically shift prices, and exposure over multiple days can incur costs, akin to interest on leverage. • Rebalancing Investments: In the stock market, periodically analyze portfolio performance, selling off underperforming assets to maintain profitability. This concept can also apply to trading, helping to recalibrate your positions for better outcomes. 📍 Conclusion Understanding the timing of closing trades is critical for any trader. By applying these strategies and learning from past experience, you can better navigate the complexities of trading and improve your overall profitability. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
8
#EURUSD - 09122024I was more bearish EURUSD last week towards the end of the week. On Friday it made a new high before coming down. Price action points to the downside on daily, though on weekly it is a doji, which IMO could indicate just a consolidation after the previous up move. I will be looking for downside before any bullish confirmation (that is, could see buyers come in later in the week). For today, a re-test and rejection off the PZ could see a move lower to target 1.0515 and 1.0490.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
EURUSD H4 I Bullish Bounce off 61.8?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 1.0536, which is a pullback support that aligns with 61.8% Fibo retracement. Our take profit will be at 1.0605, an overlap resistance. The stop loss will be placed at 1.0483, which is a swing low support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
EURUSD InsightHello, subscribers! Great to see you all. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points: - The Federal Reserve enters its blackout period. - Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November from 6.5% in the previous month, raising expectations for a 50bp rate cut by the Bank of Canada. - U.S. nonfarm payrolls for November came in at 227,000, surpassing the market forecast of 200,000. The unemployment rate matched expectations at 4.2% but increased from the prior month. - Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, stated that the Fed is ready to raise rates again if inflation rises. - The Swiss National Bank sees mixed expectations of a 25bp or 50bp rate cut, while the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates on hold. Major Economic Indicators: - December 10: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, Germany’s November Consumer Price Index (CPI) - December 11: U.S. November CPI, Bank of Canada rate decision - December 12: European Central Bank rate decision, U.S. November Producer Price Index (PPI) - December 13: UK October GDP EUR/USD Chart Analysis: EUR/USD climbed to the 1.06000 level but faced resistance and has slightly pulled back. Failure to break through the resistance level suggests a high likelihood of retreating to the 1.04500 level. For this week, the short-term outlook is bearish, but we will adjust our strategy based on the interest rate decisions from major economies.
Short
by shawntime_academy
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is reacting off the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support level. Pivot: 1.0603 1st Support: 1.0332 1st Resistance: 1.0780 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets