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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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RSI bearish divergence seen on EURUSDFundamental Perspective: The euro steadied around $1.09 as markets awaited the EU's next move after the US rejected its zero-for-zero tariff proposal. The EU is now planning 25% counter-tariffs on the US goods, signaling a more confrontational stance. The escalating trade tension could create uncertainty over the EU's economic growth, as tariff retaliation could harm both EU exports to the US and potentially escalate into further trade restrictions. A weaker outlook for the EU economy could put the euro under pressure. Technical Perspective: EURUSD is testing the upper bound of the ascending channel and weekly fair value gap, with a bearish divergence seen on the RSI, indicating the potential for a reversal. If EURUSD reverses below the resistance zone at 1.1050, the price could plunge to the support at 1.08880, which resides near the previous day's low. Conversely, a decisive close above the weekly resistance zone could prompt a further rise toward the following resistance at 1.1200. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
Short
by lixing_gan
1
EUR /USD) bearish trand analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update This chart presents a technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair on a 1-hour timeframe. Here's the breakdown and idea behind the analysis: Chart Analysis Summary: 1. Trend Structure: The price was in a downtrend, moving within a descending channel. Recently, the price has rejected the upper boundary of the channel (noted as "down reject"). There's a 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) acting as dynamic support around the 1.09086 level. Mr SMC Trading point 2. Support Zone: A strong demand zone (highlighted in yellow) is visible near the 1.08183 area. This zone aligns with previous structure support and a potential reversal point. 3. RSI Indicator: RSI is around 49, showing a neutral to slightly bearish momentum. No overbought/oversold signals yet, suggesting room for further downside before a reversal. 4. Projection Idea: The analyst expects a possible short-term drop into the yellow support zone (target: 1.08183). After reaching the target, a bullish reversal is anticipated, aiming for a breakout above the downtrend with a rally towards the 1.10500+ zone. Trading Idea: Short-Term Bearish Move: Sell toward 1.08183 if price confirms rejection of the trendline or 200 EMA. Medium-Term Bullish Reversal: Watch for bullish confirmation (e.g., engulfing candle, RSI divergence) at the 1.08183 zone to go long toward higher highs. Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
2
The Endgame for EUR/USD? Final Impulse Before a Macro Reversal📉 FX_IDC:EURUSD Forecast — Final Growth Phase Within a Corrective Structure 🌍 Macro View (Weekly Chart): FX:EURUSD remains in a long-term corrective structure that has been developing since 2008. The sequence of zigzags and connecting waves suggests a W–X–Y pattern, where the current upward leg is part of wave (B) before a potential final drop into wave (C). 🧭 Mid-Term Structure (3D Chart): Since early 2023, wave (B) has been unfolding to the upside, with wave C forming inside it as a five-wave impulsive move. ⏱️ Short-Term Structure (6h Chart): Since the start of 2025, an impulsive wave structure has been developing. Currently, OANDA:EURUSD is likely completing wave 3 and entering wave 4. ⚠️ Wave 4 may take one of the following forms: FL — Flat EFL — Expanding Flat RFL — Running Flat cT — Contracting Triangle bT — Barrier Triangle d3 — Double Three Once wave 4 completes, I expect a final push upward (wave 5), marking the culmination of the current cycle before a potential reversal into wave (C) of the higher degree. 🔁 Correlation with the ICEUS:DXY TVC:DXY : This outlook closely aligns with my previously published forecast on the CAPITALCOM:DXY , which has already started playing out: 🔗 📌 FOREXCOM:EURUSD holds potential for completing its fifth wave up, after which a reversal and the beginning of a broader decline may follow. The scenario is further validated by the mirror correlation with DXY dynamics.
by shakatrade1_618
2
USD Bear is here: Important Analysis on FX Pairs, Stock MarketIn this video I got over some important outlooks on the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY along with outlook on the stock market. The U.S. Dollar has been getting absolutely crushed along with the stock market which usually has the opposite effect. Considering we may be into a stagflation scenario, this is not surprising. Tariffs have spiked volatility and puts the Federal Reserve in a very tight spot of Interest Rate Policy. Interesting times ahead to say the least. From a pure technical analysis point of view, the USD may be set for much further losses as monthly patterns suggest a big move may be on the horizon. Will be keeping a very close eye on these as we move forward in these stormy waters of the U.S. economy. As always, Good Luck & Trade Safe.
by InternalTraderNYC
2
EURUSD POSSIBLE TRADE SETUPPotential Trade Setup on EURUSD EURUSD is on a strong 3-week rally correction that was almost got rejected on Friday due to the UK and US GDP data that came pretty strong and weak respectively. That said, I am still quite anticipating for a possible correction to continue towards the 50% fib level at 1.0650, before we can start looking for a possible buy entry in the long term. Trading Plan: 1. BUY if the resistance gets broken and retest successfully. 2. SELL if the current region acts as resistance for rejection towards the downside with an engulfing called on the 4H chart. Targets: 1. Can be 1:2 for either entries. Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) indicates an Overbought but easing gradually towards the 50 level. Please like, follow, and comment!! You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Trade Responsibly! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by Adefxc
2
EURUSD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my EURUSD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
by Transparent_Fx_Academy
1
Smart Money Technique (SMT) Divergences - The Ultimate GuideIntroduction SMT Divergences are a powerful concept used by professional traders to spot inefficiencies in the market. By comparing correlated assets, traders can identify hidden opportunities where one market shows strength while the other shows weakness. This guide will break down the major SMT divergences: EURUSD/GBPUSD, US100/US500, and XAUUSD/XAGUSD . --- What is SMT Divergence? SMT Divergence occurs when two correlated assets do not move in sync, signaling potential liquidity grabs or market inefficiencies. These divergences can be used to confirm trend reversals, identify smart money movements, and improve trade precision. Key Concepts: - If one asset makes a higher high while the correlated asset fails to do so, this suggests potential weakness in the pair making the higher high. - If one asset makes a lower low while the correlated asset does not, this suggests potential strength in the pair that did not make a lower low. - Smart Money often exploits these inefficiencies to engineer liquidity hunts before moving price in the intended direction. --- EURUSD vs. GBPUSD SMT Divergence These two forex pairs are highly correlated because both share the USD as the quote currency. However, when divergence occurs, it often signals liquidity manipulations. How to Use: - If GBPUSD makes a higher high but EURUSD does not, GBPUSD may be trapping breakout traders before reversing. - If EURUSD makes a lower low but GBPUSD does not, EURUSD might be in a liquidity grab, signaling a potential reversal. --- US100 vs. US500 SMT Divergence The NASDAQ (US100) and S&P 500 (US500) are both major indices with a strong correlation, but tech-heavy NASDAQ can sometimes lead or lag the S&P. How to Use: - If US100 makes a higher high but US500 does not, it suggests US100 is extended and may reverse soon. - If US500 makes a lower low but US100 does not, US500 might be experiencing a liquidity grab before a reversal. --- XAUUSD vs. XAGUSD SMT Divergence Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD) have a historic correlation. However, due to differences in volatility and liquidity, they can diverge, presenting trading opportunities. How to Use: - If Gold makes a higher high but Silver does not, Gold might be overextended and ready to reverse. - If Silver makes a lower low but Gold does not, Silver might be in a liquidity grab, signaling strength. --- Indicator Used for SMT Divergences To simplify the process of identifying SMT divergences, this guide utilizes the TradingView indicator TehThomas ICT SMT Divergences . This tool automatically detects divergences between correlated assets, highlighting potential trade opportunities. You can access the indicator here: Why Use This Indicator? - Automatically plots divergences, saving time on manual comparisons. - Works across multiple asset classes (Forex, Indices, Metals, etc.). - Helps traders spot Smart Money inefficiencies with ease. --- Final Tips for Trading SMT Divergences 1. Use Higher Timeframes for Confirmation: SMT Divergences on 1H or 4H hold more weight than those on lower timeframes. 2. Combine with Other Confluences: ICT concepts like Order Blocks, FVGs, or liquidity sweeps can strengthen the SMT setup. 3. Wait for Market Structure Confirmation: After spotting SMT divergence, look for a market structure shift before entering trades. 4. Be Mindful of Economic Events: Divergences can appear due to news releases, so always check the economic calendar. --- Conclusion SMT Divergences are a valuable tool for traders looking to gain an edge in the markets. By analyzing inefficiencies between correlated assets, traders can anticipate smart money movements and improve trade precision. Practice spotting these divergences on real charts, and soon, you'll develop a keen eye for hidden liquidity traps. Happy trading!
Education
by Louigi_24
97
WHY EURUSD IS BULLISH ?? DETAILED ANALYSISEURUSD has officially broken out of a clean bullish pennant pattern on the 4H chart, confirming the bullish momentum that has been building over the past week. After a sharp rally, price consolidated within a contracting range, forming the classic pennant shape. With the breakout now confirmed and price currently trading at 1.106, I’m anticipating a continuation toward the projected target at 1.143 — offering a potential 300+ pip gain in this move. Technically, the breakout is supported by increasing bullish volume, strong impulse candles, and a clear structure of higher lows. The pennant served as a healthy consolidation zone, allowing buyers to regain control before the next leg up. Price has respected support at 1.096 and is now printing bullish continuation signals with momentum indicators pointing north. Fundamentally, today’s market sentiment favors EUR strength, especially as the US dollar comes under pressure due to rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year. Inflation data in the eurozone remains sticky, supporting the ECB’s cautious stance on monetary easing. Meanwhile, weaker US labor market data and softening retail figures are weighing on dollar demand. With both technicals and fundamentals aligned, I’m expecting further upside on EURUSD. The structure is solid, the breakout is clean, and sentiment supports continued bullish flow. I’ll be holding my bias firmly bullish unless the price falls back below 1.096, which would invalidate the setup. For now, all eyes are on 1.120 short term and eventually 1.143 as the full pennant projection completes.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
1
I decided to start sharing ideas and Analyses - Here is EU/USD I have no actual experience on Forex trading and i am NOOB Analyst but here is a simple Analysis i just made in 2 min on the 4hr Timeframe EU/USD. You can see it is now testing the 0.5 level, which may continue to the 618, 0 (for a double top to DUMP again) or all the way up to 1.11 area. Just check the pic and you'll see the fib targets in the proper colours. It's intentionally very simple and short description. MAKE IT OR BREAK IT GUYS! Your criticism is my learning curve. Let it be Positive and Constructive though! This is just my start.
Long
by Cashaap
3
EUR/USD LONG SETUP | STRONG REJECTION FROM DEMAND ZONE (30) We are seeing a potential bullish reversal on EUR/USD from a well-respected demand zone on the 30-minute timeframe. Key Analysis: Market Structure: CHoCH (Change of Character) confirmed. Bullish BOS (Break of Structure) indicating a shift in order flow. Price reacted from a marked Strong Low and FVG (Fair Value Gap) zone. Liquidity grab below previous equal lows followed by a strong rejection. Entry: Taken after confirmation of price rejecting the FVG and demand zone. SL: Below the strong low & demand zone. TP: Targeting previous structure high around 1.10200. Confluences: RSI showing bullish divergence at the low. Strong reaction candle confirming buyer presence. High R:R setup (Approx. 1:4+) Bias: Bullish unless price breaks below 1.08900 invalidation level.
Long
by obidiencerikhotso123
1
Bullish bounce?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 1.0946 1st Support: 1.0836 1st Resistance: 1.1144 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
1
EUR/USD Triangle Breakout (02.04.2025)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0736 2nd Support – 1.0707 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
5
Could the Euro Be on the Verge of a Lasting Upward Climb? Europe is embarking on an ambitious chapter of economic revitalization, marked by expansive fiscal measures and a renewed sense of unity in policymaking. Against this backdrop, the Euro seems well positioned to embark on a sustained upward journey, potentially reversing years of lackluster performance and ushering in a prolonged bullish phase. One of the strongest pillars supporting this outlook is the growing anticipation that the ECB may soon hit the brakes on its monetary loosening. With the current policy described as having shed much of its restrictive bite, ECB leadership might opt for a strategic pause perhaps as early as spring 2025. This shift would allow time to gauge the effects of shifting trade landscapes, bold budgetary commitments and the unpredictable currents of global politics. A steadier monetary stance could serve as a springboard for the Euro’s ascent, offering stability amid a flurry of change. However, this optimistic scenario is not without its shadows. Rising friction in trade relations, particularly with the United States, looms as a significant wildcard. Equally critical is Europe’s capacity to translate its grand fiscal vision into tangible results. The coming months will act as a proving ground, revealing whether this pivotal moment can ignite a durable economic spark or if internal missteps and external storms dim the Euro’s shine. On the technical front, the pair’s recent vigor paints an encouraging picture. The drop from its 2023 high of 1.1274 now looks like a completed correction, having bottomed out at 1.0176 after a three phase decline. Should the pair decisively reclaim that 1.1274 level, it could reignite the upward momentum that kicked off from the 2022 trough of 0.9534. Analysts might then eye a target near 1.1916 a level derived by projecting the full rally from 0.9534 to 1.1274 upward from 1.0176 marking a notable milestone in the Euro’s recovery. Even more compelling is the possibility that such a surge could shatter a descending trend line that has capped the Euro’s ambitions for over twenty years( Pink Line). Breaking free of this long standing barrier would signal more than just a fleeting rally...it could herald a fundamental shift, positioning the Euro for a multi year bullish era. In essence, the Euro stands at a crossroads, buoyed by promising monetary recalibration, aggressive fiscal plans, and technical tailwinds. Yet.....its journey to a lasting bull run hinges on navigating a gauntlet of risks—from trade disputes to execution challenges. As Europe strides toward this defining moment, the Euro’s trajectory remains a tantalizing blend of potential and peril, with the next chapter still unwritten. Let's find out which one it is. Cheers
by RobertTMFX
2
EURUSD H4 | Bullish Bounce OffBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.0842, a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit is set at 1.0947, a pullback resistance. The stop loss is placed at 1.0731, a swing low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
1