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EURUSD - the upcoming US PCE & the ECB rate decisionAt the moment, we are seeing that the bulls are fighting hard to keep MARKETSCOM:EURUSD elevated. But they are struggling to overcome some key resistance barriers. But the upside doesn't look very promising, due to the upcoming US PCE numbers and the ECB rate decision. Let's dig into the possible near-term outcome scenarios for the $FX_IDC:EURUSD. What are your thoughts on this? 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
EUR/USD Chart Analysis: Exchange Rate Hits Highest LevelEUR/USD Chart Analysis: Exchange Rate Hits Highest Level Since Early February The EUR/USD chart shows the euro rising above its previous February peak of 1.05155, set on the 14th. On one hand, the euro's strength is driven by Germany’s national elections over the weekend, where the opposition conservatives, led by Friedrich Merz, secured victory as expected. Investors are now focused on how quickly Merz’s party can form a coalition government to implement much-needed economic reforms. On the other hand, the US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level since mid-December. According to Reuters, the dollar’s weakness is influenced by: → Shifting market perceptions of its value amid Trump’s tariff policies in global trade. → Declining US Treasury yields due to expectations of further Fed rate cuts in 2025. Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Chart Price movements form an upward channel (marked in blue), but the red arrow highlights bearish activity near resistance levels at: → The yearly high around 1.05333. → The median line of the channel. Given the lower liquidity at the start of trading, the initial breakout above the psychological 1.05000 level may have been false. Potential bearish pressure could push EUR/USD towards a support zone, including: → The 1.0400 level. → The lower boundary of a broader channel (marked in orange). If bulls intend to maintain their February momentum, signs of buying activity may emerge near the lower boundary of the blue channel. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
EURO German electionThe Euro’s strength compared to the British Pound (GBP) often comes down to a mix of economic fundamentals, market sentiment, and geopolitical factors. Think of it like this: the Eurozone and the UK are two neighbors with very different stories. The Eurozone, despite its challenges, has often been seen as a more stable and unified bloc, especially during times of global uncertainty. Investors tend to flock to the Euro as a "safe haven" currency when things get rocky, partly because it’s backed by a larger economy and the European Central Bank (ECB) has historically maintained a relatively hawkish stance on inflation, which can boost confidence in the currency. On the other hand, the GBP has had its fair share of turbulence, especially in recent years. Brexit, for instance, was a major shake-up for the UK economy, creating uncertainty around trade, investment, and growth prospects. While the UK has shown resilience, the lingering effects of Brexit, combined with political instability and concerns about slower economic growth, have sometimes weighed on the Pound. Additionally, the Bank of England (BoE) has occasionally been perceived as more cautious in its monetary policy compared to the ECB, which can make the Pound less attractive to investors seeking higher returns. Of course, currency markets are incredibly dynamic, and the relationship between the Euro and GBP can shift based on short-term factors like interest rate decisions, inflation data, or even global risk appetite. But overall, the Euro’s strength often reflects its role as a cornerstone of the global economy, while the Pound’s struggles sometimes highlight the unique challenges faced by the UK. It’s like comparing two siblings—one might seem more steady, while the other is still finding its footing after a big life change. THE UK ELECTION Ah, the recent UK election definitely adds an interesting layer to the Euro-GBP dynamic! Elections always bring a wave of uncertainty, and this one was no exception. With Labour securing a decisive victory, there’s a sense of political stability after years of Conservative-led turmoil, particularly around Brexit and the economic fallout that followed. Markets generally like stability, so in the short term, this could be a positive for the Pound. However, the real test will be how the new government handles the UK’s economic challenges—things like sluggish growth, high public debt, and the cost-of-living crisis. That said, the Euro’s strength isn’t just about what’s happening in the UK. The Eurozone has its own set of challenges, but it’s often seen as a more predictable and resilient bloc, especially when the UK is going through a transitional phase like this. Investors might be cautiously optimistic about the Pound under the new Labour government, but they’re also keeping a close eye on whether the promised reforms and fiscal policies will actually deliver growth. If the UK economy shows signs of a strong recovery, the Pound could gain ground. But for now, the Euro’s strength seems to reflect a broader confidence in the Eurozone’s ability to weather global storms, even as the UK is still navigating its post-Brexit and post-election landscape. In a way, it’s like the Euro is the steady, experienced player on the field, while the Pound is the talented but unpredictable teammate trying to find its rhythm after a rough patch. The election might be a step in the right direction for the UK, but it’ll take time to see if it translates into long-term strength for the Pound.
by Michael_ict_jr
EUR/USD Analysis – 1H & Daily TimeframesCurrent Price: 1.0461 1-Hour (H1) Chart Analysis: 📌 Bearish Rejection from Resistance – The price attempted to break above 1.0480 - 1.0500 but failed, showing selling pressure at higher levels. 📌 Support Holding Around 1.0440 - 1.0420 – Buyers are stepping in around this zone, marked by the green trendline, indicating a potential bounce if buyers remain strong. 📌 Short-Term Trend Reversal? – The previous lower highs and lower lows structure is being tested, with price now battling a descending trendline. A clear break above 1.0500 would confirm a short-term bullish shift. 📌 Indicators: ✔️ Moving averages are flattening, showing indecision. ✔️ A break above 1.0500 will push EUR/USD toward 1.0550 - 1.0600. ✔️ A failure to hold 1.0440 will bring the pair back down to 1.0400 - 1.0380. H1 Prediction: 📈 Bullish Scenario: A break and close above 1.0500 could trigger upside momentum toward 1.0550 - 1.0600. 📉 Bearish Scenario: A rejection at 1.0500 or a breakdown below 1.0440 could send the pair toward 1.0400 - 1.0380. Daily (D1) Chart Analysis: 📌 Downtrend Dominates – The red descending trendline indicates a strong bearish trend since the 1.1200 highs, with multiple lower highs rejecting from resistance. 📌 Breakout or Rejection? – Price is currently testing the trendline resistance, and a daily close above 1.0500 would confirm a bullish breakout. Otherwise, it remains a bearish rejection zone. 📌 Support at 1.0300 - 1.0200 – The last major support zone was found here (green trendline), and any break below this level would open the way to 1.0100. 📌 Indicators: ✔️ EUR/USD is attempting to break the downtrend, but 1.0500 is key resistance. ✔️ If rejected, expect further downside toward 1.0300 - 1.0200. ✔️ If it breaks above 1.0500, we could see 1.0600+ levels tested. D1 Prediction: 📈 Bullish Scenario: A daily close above 1.0500 would push EUR/USD toward 1.0600 - 1.0700, confirming trend reversal. 📉 Bearish Scenario: A failure at 1.0500 will likely lead to 1.0380 - 1.0300, with a possible drop to 1.0200 if momentum builds. Final Outlook: 🚨 Overall Bias: Bearish, but at key resistance 🔸 Short-Term (H1): Watching for a breakout above 1.0500 or rejection leading to 1.0400. 🔸 Long-Term (D1): EUR/USD is at a crucial resistance—either it reverses into bullish or continues the larger downtrend toward 1.0300 - 1.0200. 💡 Strategy: ✅ For buyers: Wait for a clear breakout above 1.0500 before going long, targeting 1.0600 - 1.0700. ✅ For sellers: If price rejects 1.0500, shorting toward 1.0380 - 1.0300 would be a high-probability trade. 📊 EUR/USD is at a decision point—watch for confirmation before making a move! 🚀
by DhandaTheGreat
EURUSD: the PCE is coming Figures for US Building Permits in January were posted at the level 0,1% higher for the month in January, while the Housing Starts dropped by -9,8% in January. Existing Home sales in January dropped by -4,9% on the monthly basis, much higher from forecasted -1,7%. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final for February was at the level of 64,7 modestly lower from market forecast of 67,8. At the same time, inflation expectations were increased. The majority of US consumers are expecting inflation at the level of 4,3% while five years inflation expectations were increased to the level of 3,5%, from 3,2% posted previously. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for February in the Euro Zone reached the level of 24,2 and generally was in line with the market consensus. The same indicator for Germany was standing at the level of 26,0 and was higher from 20 expected by the market. The Producers Price Index in January in Germany was standing at 0,5% on a yearly basis, and -0,1% for the month. The Consumer Confidence in the Euro Zone in February was at the level of -13,6 a bit better from market estimate of -14,4. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for February in Germany was at the level of 46,1, and a bit higher from market estimate of 45,5. The same indicator for the Euro Zone was at 47,3 also a bit higher from estimated 47. Without official release of data which would point to inflation in the US, the eurusd currency pair was traded in a relatively short range during the previous week. The week started by testing the 1,05 resistance line. Without the strength to break it, the currency pair reverted a bit toward the downside, till the lowest weekly level of 1,04, where the support line lies. At the weekend it reverted again back toward the 1,05, but again without success to break this level. The currency pair ended the week at 1,045. The RSI is still moving above the level of 50, implying that the market is still more oriented toward the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days is modestly slowing down its divergence from MA200, however, there is still a high distance between lines, in which sense, the potential cross is still not in store. The Fed's favourite inflation gauge, the PCE indicator is scheduled for a release during the week ahead. Considering current market high sensitivity on inflation data, a higher volatility might be expected. At this moment, charts are showing that eurusd is traded to some extent sideways, between levels of 1,05 and 1,04. If the market manages to break the support line at 1,04 during the week ahead, then it could be expected to move toward the 1,03. In case that 1,04 manages to hold, then the currency pair will revert back toward higher grounds, and probably will surpass the 1,05 resistance line. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Ifo Business Climate for February in Germany, Inflation rate for January in the EuroZone, GDP Growth Rate final for Q4 in Germany, GfK Consumer Confidence for March in Germany, Retail Sales in Germany in January, Unemployment rate in Germany in February, USD: Durable Goods Orders for January, GDP Growth Rate second estimate for Q4, PCE Price Index preliminary for February, Personal Income and Personal Spending
by XBTFX
EURUSDTrend = Bearish I know a lot of Traders wont agree with my bearish bias but hear me out,....The market broke structure the the downside and closed comfortable below and Pulled back to the Extreme P.O.I and reject successfully to start going down but this is interesting with EURUSD because as much as all the above Paragraph is True The market is currently on a Bullish inside structure that could take it back to Extreme P.O.I because right now the market failed to close below this big support/Demand and Change The Character on lower TF now it's pulling back to hopeful continue trending up after a visible lower TF Rejection......
by CoolSlavesFx
EURUSD POTENTIAL SHORT OPPORTUNITYHello Everyone! How are you all? EurUsd is a pair to watch this week, because it is shaping up very nicely for a bearish trend continuation that we can capitalize on. So, I will be looking for a sell continuation because of the following reasons: 1. The overall trend is bearish. 2. The price has formed a continuation structure. 3. The price is approaching the value area. Game Plan: If the price comes to the VA, and rejects at that level or sweeps the High, and makes a bearish impulse followed by a 15mins flag with two highs and lows. Entry : will look for a risk sell entry within the flag or a reduced risk entry on the breakout of the flag.
Short
by DTreasureMarketHub
EUR/USD is bullish now after this breakoutDESCENDING WEDGE PATTERN BREAKOUT : FX:EURUSD has broken out of a descending wedge pattern with strong confirmation indicating market will go upwards till the target equivalent to the max width of the pattern STRONG SUPPORT ZONE TESTED : market has recently tested a strong support zone which it had tested earlier two times and had gone upwards indicating strong upward momentum for the currency pair PROFIT TARGET : level is 1.05274
Long
by peace_lover
EURUSD 24-28 Feb 2025 W9 - Weekly Analysis - US GDP / PCE Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 24-28 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart Analysis Daily Chart Analysis 4H Chart Analysis Economic Events for the Week Market Sentiment Inflation Data Dominates Hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI/PPI initially fueled inflation fears, but signs of moderation in underlying PPI components raised hopes for softer PCE data next week. Investors see a growing chance of Fed rate cuts in late 2025, limiting USD strength. Tariff Noise vs. Market Calm Trump’s tariff threats (e.g., reciprocal steel/aluminum duties) were largely dismissed as negotiation tactics, easing fears of an immediate trade war. Markets expect delays in implementation, reducing near-term volatility. Geopolitical Progress Supports Risk Sentiment Reports of progress in Ukraine-Russia peace talks (e.g., territory swaps) reduced safe-haven demand for the USD, indirectly boosting the Euro. Stabilizing energy prices and supply chains further supported the Eurozone outlook. Central Bank Divergence The Fed remains cautious, emphasizing data dependency, while the ECB signals potential rate cuts later in 2025. Short-term EUR resilience stems from reduced trade-war risks and improving Eurozone economic data. Focus on Upcoming Catalysts This week PCE inflation report (Fed’s preferred gauge) will test disinflation optimism. Weak U.S. retail sales/industrial production amplified concerns about slowing growth, weighing on the USD. Key Takeaways Bullish Drivers: Progress in geopolitical tensions. Softening inflation expectations ahead of PCE data. Tariffs seen as negotiation tools, not immediate threats. Bearish Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. Overall Sentiment:  Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD this week, with upside hinging on sustained risk appetite and confirmation of disinflation trends. Weekly Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Internal Bearish (Pullback Phase) 🔹In Swing Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS) 3️⃣ 🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase. 🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous weeks analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS. 🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after volatile week. 🔹With the previous week solid Bullish close, the Demand did hold and there is a high probability that price could continue Bullish to facilitate the INT structure pullback phase. 🔹If price to continue Bullish, price will be targeting the liquidity above Dec 2024, INT Structure EQ (50%) at 1.06933 to target the Weekly Supply in premium before continuing down to target the Weak INT Low. 🔹Expectations is for price to continue Bullish if it managed to break 1.05333 27 Jan High to facilitate the INT structure pullback. Daily Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone. 🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH. 🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase. 🔹Previous week I mentioned “if the Daily formed a Bullish CHoCH (Currently above the recent mitigated Supply) this will shift my outlook to the Weekly Scenario of a deep pullback of the Weekly INT Structure to at least the Structure EQ (50%). MTF required to shift Bullish to confirm”. And with that happened I’d shifted to Bullish expectation and there is expectations of a deep pullback within the Daily Bearish INT structure. 🔹The expected targets for the current bullish move is 1st to sweep the liquidity above the equal highs (17 Dec & 27 Jan) 2nd Break of the Strong INT High to facilitate the Daily Bearish Swing pullback and the Weekly Bearish INT pullback. 🔹Currently Supply is failing and Demand is holding confirms the short-term Bullish scenario and setting my expectations for continuing Bullish. Price had pulled back to the recent Daily Demand and continued Bullish. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand) 🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply) 🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%) 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹As expected yesterday, price managed to continue Bullish after reaching the INT-INT structure EQ (50%) in a solid impulsive move aligns with the Swing continuation move. 3️⃣ 🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme where we are getting the current corrective Bearish OF. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
Knowledge is not enough to be a successful traderWhile having strong knowledge and an effective strategy is essential for success, they alone are not enough to become a profitable trader. It is important to integrate other key aspects, such as: Risk Management Capital Protection: Adopt strict risk management by using stop-loss orders and limiting your capital exposure on each trade. Diversification: Spread your investments across multiple assets to reduce the impact of potential losses on any single position. Emotional Mastery and Managing Greed Stress Control: Remain calm in the face of market fluctuations to avoid impulsive decisions Discipline: Stick to your trading plan even during periods of high volatility. Managing Greed: Greed can lead to taking undue risks. It is crucial to remain objective and not be swayed by the lure of profit, which could compromise rigorous risk management. Patience and Perseverance Patience: Waiting for the right opportunities is essential. Rushing into trades can lead you to enter the market under unfavorable conditions. Perseverance: Trading is a continuous learning process. Learn from your mistakes and persevere, even after losses, to adjust and improve your strategy. Adaptability and Continuous Learning Market Evolution: Market conditions are constantly changing. A profitable trader knows how to adjust their strategy based on new trends and information. Feedback: Keeping a trading journal to analyze your performance, identify your mistakes, and progress over the long term is fundamental. By combining these skills – strict risk management, emotional control (including managing greed), as well as patience and perseverance – you give yourself the best chance to achieve sustainable success in the financial markets.
Education
by Traderscope