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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD Next possible moveSAXO:EURUSD Title "EUR/USD Intraday Analysis: Sell Entry in Focus | Dollar Strength Persists" Market Context "EUR/USD resumes its downward trajectory as dollar strength dominates the market. The pair struggles to find footing amid concerns over Eurozone growth and renewed hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve." Technical Analysis *"Monday’s sell entry is supported by key bearish indicators: Trend Structure: Lower highs and lower lows continue to dominate, confirming the downtrend. EMA Dynamics: Price remains below the 20 and 50 EMAs, reflecting persistent bearish momentum. RSI: Trending below 40, indicating strong selling pressure. MACD: Bearish crossover on the H1 chart with widening negative histogram bars, signaling further downside potential. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.0530 (intraday), 1.0555 (key level). A breakout above 1.0555 could negate the bearish outlook. Support: 1.0500 (psychological level), 1.0475 (next target)."* News Context "Upcoming: U.S. ISM Services PMI and speeches from Fed officials could provide additional volatility. Previous: Last week’s strong U.S. jobs data reinforced dollar demand, keeping EUR/USD under pressure." Call to Action "Is EUR/USD set for further declines, or could buyers step in at support levels? Share your analysis and trade ideas below!"
Short
by RBSBALA
EUR/USD Sunday Market ReviewCurrent Market Position The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.05678, positioned at the premium side of its recent trading range. This level represents a significant recovery from the markdown initiated on November 13th, which established the range's parameters. Recent Price Action Analysis The trading range has been defined by: Upper bound: Current levels around 1.05678 Lower bound: 1.04802 Notable displacement: Liquidity sweep on November 22nd Recovery: Strong positive reaction leading into November 30th Technical Structure The price action has demonstrated a clear range-bound behavior with strategic liquidity sweeps. The recent upward movement from the lower displacement suggests accumulation at lower levels, with buyers showing conviction in defending the range's floor. Key Technical Levels Upside targets: Primary resistance: 1.09464 (coinciding with 200 EMA) Extended target: 1.12136 (longer-term projection) Correlation Analysis with US Dollar Index The Dollar Index presents a potentially bearish setup: Current resistance: 108.071 Initial support target: 105.970 Critical breakdown level: 105.347 Further DXY support levels on bearish continuation: Major support: 103.376 Extended targets: 101.856 and 100.000 Technical Patterns The US Dollar Index is exhibiting a head and shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe, although Friday's green close suggests some hesitation in the bearish momentum. This pattern, if confirmed, would align with the bullish EUR/USD scenario. Outlook and Strategy The technical setup suggests a bullish bias for EUR/USD with the following considerations: The pair has shown resilience at lower levels with strong buying pressure The projected move above the 200 EMA could trigger additional momentum The potential USD weakness, as indicated by the head and shoulders pattern, provides fundamental support for the bullish EUR/USD scenario Risk Considerations Traders should monitor: The 105.347 level on the Dollar Index as a key pivot Any failure to breach the 200 EMA could lead to range continuation Friday's positive close on the Dollar Index might indicate temporary strength Conclusion The technical structure supports a bullish bias for EUR/USD with clear upside targets at 1.09464 and 1.12136. This aligns with the potential bearish structure in the US Dollar Index, although proper risk management should be maintained given the recent dollar strength.
Long
by FXCapitalClub
1
Wave Five Down Ahead!!!I identify a clear double ZZ(zigzag) pattern rising from the low made on November 22 of this year. There are multiple reasons to believe the move is over we are in for a downtrend. From a momentum standpoint, we can see that the second swing-up in this move failed to exceed or even match the one of the first. The slope of the second swing is also more slanted to side, indicating a lose of buying pressure, we'd ideally like to see the price pick up momentum as we move in the second swing in a move. For the most part, the price has moved above the trend line traced connecting the lows of the move, but we have to notice we did have a slip below for a few hours before resuming above it. A move and close below this line at Sunday open will throw more solidity to this scenario. Yes this pattern can also be read to be interpreted in a bullish way if we think that it might be creating a sequence of ones and twos before third move explodes up but given the trend we are traling, which is bearish, and the other factors mentioned, I lean into the bearish scenario. Finally, the timing of this continuation down can be tricky but I believe that the volatility on Friday (likely due to NFP) nudged the price to come and take the liquidity stuck at around the 1.06315 area as highlighted by the orange circle, as well as inducing a lot of buying by breaking above those corrective levels. All that said, nothing matter if we see price break above 1.063 which was the high set on Friday. Hsppy Trading :)
by HydraFinance
Lingrid | EURUSD Promising REVERSAL Pattern At the DEMAND zoneFX:EURUSD reached a resistance zone and is struggling to extend downward, showing signs of a potential reversal. An inverse head and shoulders pattern indicates that bears may not be ready to push the market lower at this time, signaling potential strength among buyers. On the daily timeframe, the recent price action shows a fake breakout of the previous demand zone around the 1.04500 level, suggesting that buyers might still be in control and that the downside momentum may be weakening. If the market continues to form this reversal pattern, it is likely that we could see a pullback to retest the resistance zone around the 1.07000. IF price reject this resistance level and hold above the support formed by the recent demand zone, it could pave the way for a further upward movement. My goal is the resistance zone around 1.06140 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Long
by Lingrid
12
EU is ready to dropHi traders, Last week EU made a bigger ABC pullback (orange) to the 38.2 fib retracement of the last impulsive wave. It's clear that it is a correction and not a leading diagonal. Price broke structure but didn't close above it, so the swing low gets weak and I expect it to break. Last Friday it started the drop already and changed the orderflow to bearish. I don't expect it to go up once more into the higher Daily FVG's. Next week we could see a small correction up and a big drop to break the swing low. After that price could drop to the lower Daily FVG to finish wave 5 (black). Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe and trade shorts. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost or respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
Short
by EduwaveTrading
EURUSD Under Pressure! SELL! My dear friends, My technical analysis for EURUSD is below: The market is trading on 1.0566 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 1.0523 Recommended Stop Loss - 1.0592 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations. --- Eurozone: Fragility Persists Industrial and Consumer Weakness Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects. PMI and GDP Concerns The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB's Dovish Tilt ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook. --- United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges Economic and Labor Market Data The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode. The labor market also remains a pillar of strength: - Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k). - Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling. Fed's Monetary Policy Path Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report. Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability. --- Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience: - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%). - Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8). Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach. Key Factors Driving EUR/USD: 1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance. 2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals. 3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy. While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Short
by InvestMate
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has demonstrated strong upward momentum during this week's trading session. It retreated to our designated support level, Mean Support at 1.049. Then, it bounced back vigorously to retest the significant resistance level, Mean Resistance, marked at 1.060, which was reached in the previous week's price action. The Eurodollar appears poised to move toward the target value of Inner Currency Rally 1.072 after surpassing the critical resistance level at 1.060. However, it is essential to note that the Eurodollar may retest the support level at 1.049 before continuing its upward trend.
by TradeSelecter