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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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DeGRAM | EURUSD fixed above the lower boundary of the channel📊 Technical Analysis ● Euro keeps stair-stepping along the inner trend-line of the 2-month rising channel; each dip to the line (green arrows) is met with higher lows, confirming firm demand around 1.1485-1.1500. ● Friday’s break back above the former wedge cap turned 1.1550 into support; clearing the last swing high at 1.1605 would expose the channel median / fib cluster at 1.1650, with the upper rail near 1.1745 as an extension. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Softer US retail-sales and a slump in NY Fed manufacturing pulled Treasury 2-yr yields under 4.70 %, while ECB speakers warned that further cuts “are not a given,” narrowing the rate gap and reviving euro bids. ✨ Summary Long 1.1520-1.1560; hold above 1.1550 targets 1.1650 ➜ 1.1745. Bias void on an H4 close below 1.1480. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
1
$EURUSD Analysis | Bearish Confluences in PlayPEPPERSTONE:EURUSD The Fiber is currently testing multiple technical barriers, including the golden Fibonacci zone, channel resistance , and bearish harmonic patterns. A lower-degree double top has led to a potential bearish 2618 setup, suggesting short-term downside risk. 📉 Fractal Structure Zones 🔸 Daily fractal resistance (short-term): 1.1631 🔸 Weekly fractal resistance (mid-term): 1.1573 🔸 Intraday resistance (4H): 1.1569 🔸 Intraday support (4H): 1.1523 🔸 Daily fractal support: 1.1371 🔸 Monthly fractal resistance (long-term): 1.1213 🔸 Weekly fractal support: 1.1065 🔸 Monthly fractal support: 1.0177 A rejection below intraday support may validate the bearish setup, while a sustained break above daily resistance would question the harmonic scenario. Happy Trading, André Cardoso
Short
by Andre_Cardoso
EURUSD 16 June – Technical Rebound or Liquidity Trap? EURUSD 16 June – Technical Rebound or Liquidity Trap? The EURUSD pair has shown sharp movements after testing key resistance near 1.1607. While the price action may appear bullish at first glance, deeper analysis suggests we might be facing either a continuation of the uptrend or a strategic liquidity hunt. 🌍 Macro & Fundamental Overview The ECB remains hawkish with rates still high, but recent commentary hints at a more dovish tone possibly leading to rate cuts in late Q3 2025. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve maintains its cautious stance, holding off on rate cuts due to sticky core inflation. This divergence in policy expectations creates a neutral to slightly USD-favorable bias, depending on upcoming economic data. ⏳ Bottom line: EURUSD remains in a choppy environment with compression–expansion cycles, and no confirmed macro-driven trend yet. 📉 Technical Outlook (H1 Chart) Price Structure: The pair is moving within a short-term ascending channel, but current price is testing the upper boundary. EMA Analysis (13/34/89/200): Still supports an uptrend, but flattening out — potential bearish crossover if price fails to hold. Key Resistance: 1.1607: Major resistance and local top (double rejection zone). Critical Support Zones: 1.15540: Minor structural support — a decisive level for intraday direction. 1.15261 & 1.14807: Unfilled FVG zones and liquidity pools that may get targeted if the price breaks lower. 🎯 Trade Setup Ideas 📘 Scenario A – BUY from 1.15540 support (bullish continuation) Entry: 1.15540 (upon bullish candle confirmation or strong bounce) Stop Loss: 1.15200 Take Profits: 1.15850 → 1.16070 → 1.16300+ ✅ Ideal if European sentiment remains positive or if USD weakens across the board. 📕 Scenario B – SELL if price breaks and retests 1.15540 Entry: 1.15540 (after a breakdown + rejection retest) Stop Loss: 1.15720 Take Profits: 1.15261 → 1.14807 → possibly 1.1450 ✅ Best used if USD gains strength or EUR shows weakness after economic releases. 🧠 Market Psychology The market is currently reactive to any shift in tone from ECB and Fed, causing price whipsaws near key zones. Smart traders will avoid chasing breakouts and instead focus on reaction zones like 1.15540 for confirmation-based trades. Watch for fakeouts, as institutional players may be hunting liquidity before choosing direction. 📌 Final Thoughts EURUSD is in a sensitive zone, and 1.15540 is the intraday pivot. Holding above could trigger a push toward 1.1607 and higher. But failure to hold would likely attract sellers toward the 1.1480–1.1450 liquidity range. 🎯 Discipline is key. Avoid emotional entries. Let the market come to your level — and execute only with confirmation.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W25 D16 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W25 D16 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly order block ✅15' order block ✅1 hour order block ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
EUR/USD - Upside Bias Continues Amid Market EventsHi Everyone, As outlined in our analysis last week, we continue to expect EUR/USD to advance further to the upside. A successful retest of the 1.15240 level provides support for the move. This promises to be an eventful week as markets navigate geopolitical tensions and upcoming central bank decisions. As long as price holds above 1.14483, we anticipate a continuation higher toward the 1.16564 level, which would further reinforce our long-term bullish outlook. A confirmed break above this resistance would likely open the door for a move toward 1.18325, where we anticipate encountering dynamic resistance. We will provide further updates on the projected path for EUR/USD should price reach this level. The longer-term outlook remains bullish, with expectations for the rally to extend toward the 1.2000 level, provided the price holds above the key support at 1.10649. We will continue to update you throughout the week with how we’re managing our active ideas and positions. Thanks again for all the likes/boosts, comments and follows — we appreciate the support! All the best for a good end to the week. Trade safe. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
EurUsd Daily Profile and expectation for New YorkMy Monday Protocol normally is to sit on my hands and see how Monday prints and trade from Tuesday onwards. With FOMC coming Wednesday, I'm allowed to deviate from this because Monday can be trending to "get somewhere in a hurry", trap Traders and go the other way during FOMC. When I now look at the Market I see that London kept Asia Lows in tact and expanded higher leaving Failure Swings. Now consolidating which is normally a continuation signature... But then it should first sweep the consolidation Low and make a Reversal Signature. When we sweep or run the Consolidation High first, then the Long idea is not valid anymore. Im watching the FVG below and see how we trade there and then decide if a Long is in play... I don't want to lose the Equilibruim Level of London Session otherwise the Failure Swings below the Market are the target. Bottom Line, no hard Bias because its Monday. Favoring the Bullish side with FOMC on the Agenda this week, but not in a hurry to trade. Hope you appreciate my content 👍 Happy Hunting, Stay Safe! Warm Regards, Mariinus
Long
by Mariinus
Analysis and Forecast for EUE/USDToday, the EUR/USD pair is under pressure, having failed to consolidate above the 1.1447 level and showing intraday declines toward the psychological level of 1.1415 and below, amid U.S. dollar strength. The main drive of the dollar's rise was Friday's strong U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which reduced expectations for an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. In addition, optimism surrounding the potential resumption of U.S. -China trade talks is dampening bearish sentiment toward the dollar, thereby adding further pressure on EU/USD. Nevertheless. ongoing negotiation in London and the upcoming key U.S. inflation data later this week are prompting traders to remain cautious and refrain from opening aggressive positions. The market still considers a September Fed rate cut likely, and concerns about the U.S. government's fiscal position are limiting the dollar's upside potential, which in turn lends some support to the euro. On the other hand, the European Central Bank signaled at its latest meeting that the current rate-cutting cycle may be nearing an end. This also supports the euro and helps limit EUR/USD losses. In the absence of significant economic releases from the eurozone or the U.S. today, the pair's movement is mainly driven by dollar dynamics. Technically, in order to resume upward movement, EUR/USD needs to break through resistance in the 1.1450-1.1460 level, which could open the path toward the psychological level of 1.1500. A break above that could lead to a retest of late-April highs. Otherwise, the risk of further decline toward the 1.1370 support level remains. However, oscillators on the daily chart are still in positive territory, indicating a generally constructive outlook for the pair. In the short term, caution advised, with focus on signals from the trade negotiations and upcoming economic data.
Long
by CEO-PREMIUM-ANALYSIS
21
EURUSD Sell- Go for sell if setup given - just a small trade - Refine entry with smaller SL for better RR, if your strategy allow A Message To Traders: I’ll be sharing high-quality trade setups for a period time. No bullshit, no fluff, no complicated nonsense — just real, actionable forecast the algorithm is executing. If you’re struggling with trading and desperate for better results, follow my posts closely. Check out my previously posted setups and forecasts — you’ll be amazed by the high accuracy of the results. "I Found the Code. I Trust the Algo. Believe Me, That’s It."
Short
by Vincent-DA
EURUSD 4H: Bullish Trend & Key Support TestChart Overview: The EURUSD 4-hour chart displays a clear bullish bias, trading within a well-defined ascending channel. After making new highs, price is now retracing to test crucial support, presenting a potential trend continuation opportunity. Trend & Structure: Since April, EURUSD has maintained a strong uptrend, consistently respecting an ascending channel. An early May correction saw an "internal break," but a subsequent "MSS" (Market Structure Shift) confirmed the bullish trend's resumption, pushing price to a new local high at 1.16321 and above. Current Price Action & Immediate Support: Price is currently undergoing a healthy retracement from its recent peak. The primary focus is the "Immediate Support Area" between 1.14416 and 1.14663. This zone is significant due to a confluence of factors: The 0.5 & 0.618(Golden Ratio) and 0.71 Fibonacci retracement levels of the latest bullish swing. Prior resistance that has potentially flipped into support. The lower boundary of the overarching ascending channel. Below this, a "Key Level" around 1.1100-1.1150 is identified as a deeper, secondary support. Potential Scenarios & Outlook: Bullish Continuation: A strong bounce and confirmation from the "Immediate Support Area" would signal renewed buying pressure. This would likely see price target the recent high (1.16321) and the upper channel boundary, resuming the uptrend. Bearish Rejection: A decisive break down below the "Immediate Support Area" and the ascending channel's lower boundary would invalidate the immediate bullish setup, potentially leading to a test of the "Key Level." Conclusion: EURUSD is at a pivotal point within its ongoing bullish trend. Traders should closely monitor price action at the "Immediate Support Area." A successful hold and rebound here would reinforce the bullish outlook, while a clear break below would warrant caution and re-evaluation. Disclaimer: The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
Long
by ManiMarkets
ECB’s De Guindos Sees Balanced Inflation RisksEuropean Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said Monday that the EUR/USD at 1.15 does not hinder the ECB’s inflation goal, noting the euro’s gradual rise and stable volatility. He stated inflation risks are balanced, with little chance of falling short of the target, and that markets have clearly understood the ECB’s recent policy signals. De Guindos reaffirmed the ECB is close to its inflation objective Looking ahead, he warned that tariffs could slow growth and inflation in the medium term but expressed confidence in the Fed maintaining swap line arrangements. He also confirmed there have been no discussions about repatriating gold reserves from New York. At the time, EUR/USD was down 0.09%, trading near 1.1537. Resistance is located at 1.1580, while support is seen at 1.1460.
by ChartMage
London Session - Sell Idea on EUWe see price entering a 4hr & 1hr engulfing candle stick. Price is also beginning to downtrend on the 1hr time frame. I've adjusted my trading time to early morning on the east coast. I'm noticing I'm more productive. My original wakeup time is 3:33am but I woke up at 4:44am this Am. I felt rushed to keep going but I'm not trying to hard, I will set alerts as price enters our zone, I'm expecting price to trigger before 7am. Then break our CTL. Easily 1:3 risk to reward.
Short
by EliSantiago
EURUSD June 16 Trade ExecutedEURUSD June 16 Trade Executed Parent Bias Bull Fridays delivery to build a narrative for Monday *Asia to London price expanded to seek lowwr prices take sell side liquidity in London *Note Friday was a reversal of Thursday *Prices expansion wicks to equilibrium *Reversed to take minor buy side in NY AM *NY PM Retraced AM rally *NY closes in a FVG-Note bodies staying above the CE of the FVG June 16 Framework for suspected buy day *Asia opened in a premium previous session *I was expecting a long consolidation after Sundays delivery * *Equal lows as a target to trigger a expansion coming into mid night opening *22:00 price wicks to create a wall of equal lows *23:15 Price takes minor buy side liquidity *20:00 price immediately expanded *20:09 entered *First target buy stops 1.15693 *Second target 1.15848 Took partials here and now letting it ride. Patience waiting for clues to the bias I was suspecting. Buying the mid night opening price with the bias is allowing me to get in when I suspect a expansion cycle is in play. Asia expansion trade for the win.
Long
by LeanLena
DeGRAM | EURUSD formed the double top📊 Technical Analysis ● A double-top printed at the channel roof (≈ 1.1600) and a bearish engulfing candle signal exhaustion; price is slipping back inside last week’s inner trend-median, turning 1.1550 into fresh resistance. ● Hourly RSI diverged lower and the grey return line from 1 June has broken; pattern depth points to 1.1500 support, with the channel mid-band / former triangle apex near 1.1470 as the next magnet. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Post-CPI profit-taking meets cautious ECB rhetoric: Lagarde reiterated “no preset easing path,” yet money-markets still price two Fed cuts by year-end, inviting near-term dollar reprieve. ✨ Summary Short 1.1540-1.1560; break below 1.1520 targets 1.1500 → 1.1470. Bear view void on an H1 close above 1.1600. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Short
by DeGRAM
1
The best indicator //@version=5 strategy("EMA-RSI-Bollinger Strategy", overlay=true, default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value=10) // === Indicatori === ema20 = ta.ema(close, 20) ema50 = ta.ema(close, 50) rsi = ta.rsi(close, 14) basis = ta.sma(close, 20) dev = 2 * ta.stdev(close, 20) upperBB = basis + dev lowerBB = basis - dev // === Condiții pentru Buy === longTrend = ema20 > ema50 longPullback = close <= ema20 and close <= lowerBB longRSI = rsi < 50 and rsi > 30 longSignal = longTrend and longPullback and longRSI // === Condiții pentru Sell === shortTrend = ema20 < ema50 shortPullback = close >= ema20 and close >= upperBB shortRSI = rsi > 50 and rsi < 70 shortSignal = shortTrend and shortPullback and shortRSI // === Semnale & Tranzacții === if (longSignal) strategy.entry("Buy", strategy.long) if (shortSignal) strategy.entry("Sell", strat
by rojisteanucatali