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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25For this long off 1.1193 targeting 1.1909 vs. a retrace back under 1.1193, I’d peg the probabilities roughly as: Outcome Probability Rally above 1.1909 first ~75% Drop below 1.1193 first ~25% Rationale Bullish breakout: EUR/USD has convincingly flipped 1.115–1.120 into support and cleared the 1.15–1.16 ceiling with follow‐through. Momentum: Daily candles show clean advances with little upper‐wick rejection; RSI/MACD remain in bullish territory without overbought exhaustion. Bear case stretch: To return under 1.1193, price would need to wipe out the entire breakout and break multiple support layers (1.1550, 1.1400, 1.1200) — a lower‐probability scenario absent a major macro shock.
Long
by Gamblers-Fallacy
EURUSD ||| '' W '' PATTERN IDENTIFIED . ✅ Harmonic Formation (Bearish Potential) ⚠️ Selling Bias forming soon --- 🧩 Pattern Breakdown: A Bearish Harmonic Pattern (likely Butterfly or Deep Crab) has been identified and is now nearing completion at the D point. Current price is approaching key resistance / reversal zone, precisely around the 0.786 - 0.886 fib area (highlighted red). The Risk-to-Reward is clearly mapped: 🔺 Stop Loss: 1.19405 ✅ Entry Zone: Around 1.17106 🎯 Target: 1.09588 Potential short setup if price respects the harmonic symmetry and fails to break above resistance.
Short
by Greenfireforex
3
EURUSD POTENTIAL SHORT OPPORTUNITYHello Everyone! How are you all? EurUsd is a pair to watch in the coming days/weeks, because it is shaping up very nicely for a short trend reversal that we can capitalize on. So, I will be looking for a sell opportunity because of the following reasons: 1. The price has formed a sell reversal structure with two lows and a potential third touch at the high. 2. The price is approaching a value area. Game Plan: If the price comes to the VA, and rejects at that level or sweeps the High, and makes a bearish impulse followed by a H1 flag with two highs and lows. Entry : will look for a risk sell entry within the flag or a reduced risk entry on the breakout of the flag.
Short
by DTreasureMarketHub
EURUSD: Bearish Continuation is Highly Probable! Here is Why: Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the EURUSD pair which is likely to be pushed down by the bears so we will sell! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Short
by UnitedSignals
3
EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook – Expanded Flat Playing Out?EUR/USD appears to be unfolding a classic expanded flat correction for wave (4): Wave A formed as a 3-wave zigzag Wave B retraced beyond the start of A — a key trait of expanded flats Now looking for a 5-wave C-leg decline toward the 1.1122 – 1.1002 area Aligned with 1.0–1.618 extensions of A RSI + MACD divergence adds bearish confirmation at the B top Potential bullish reversal zone into late June / early July As long as price holds below the B high (~1.1650), the bearish path in wave C remains in play. 📍 Target zone: 1.1122–1.1002 📈 Bias: Bearish short-term, bullish long-term (wave 5 up next)
Short
by EWaveInsights
7
Projected Price Path (White Lines)showing technical analysis and a projected price path. Here’s a breakdown of what’s visible: 🔍 Chart Overview Pair: EUR/USD Timeframe: 4H (4-hour) Current Price: ~1.15881 Date/Time: Around June 13, 2025, 3:47 AM (UTC+3) 🟩 Highlighted Zones Upper Supply Zone (resistance area): Around 1.15150 – 1.15300 Price previously reacted and broke above this zone. Lower Demand Zone (support area): Between 1.13600 – 1.13900 Price bounced from this level in the past. Intermediate Zone (recent consolidation): Around 1.14300 – 1.14500 Possibly an area of minor structure or reaccumulation. 📈 Price Action Price made a strong bullish move, breaking through previous resistance zones. Bearish pin bar (rejection wick) at the top suggests potential reversal or pullback. 🔮 Projected Price Path (White Lines) The drawn projection suggests: Short-term pullback, possibly to retest the 1.15300–1.15150 area. A minor lower high forms. Deeper drop expected toward the demand zone at 1.13800 or lower. 🧠 Analysis Implication This is likely a swing trader’s roadmap, anticipating a reversal after an overextended move. The analysis could be based on liquidity sweep above highs and return to structure.
by King_Maker_FX
2
EURUSD: FOMC meeting ahead Previous week on the US market was focused on inflation data. The inflation rate in May was standing at 0,1% for the month, below market expectations of 0,2%. At the same time the US core inflation was also below market estimate at the level of 0,1%, while the market forecasted 0,3% for the month. Inflation rate on a yearly basis in May was standing at 2,3% and core inflation was 2,8%. The Producers Price Index in May was at the level of 0,1% for the month, same as core PPI. Both figures were modestly below market estimates. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for June showed some modest relaxation in the inflation expectations. The indicator reached the level of 60,5 which was better from the market estimate of 53,5. The inflation expectations for this year at the beginning of June were standing at 5,1%, and were decreased from 6,6% posted previously. The five year inflation expectations modestly decreased from 4,2% to 4,1%. During the previous week there has not been too much currently significant data posted for the Euro Zone and Germany, its largest economy. The wholesale prices in Germany in May dropped by -0,3% for the month, bringing the indicator to the level of 0,4% on a yearly basis. Both figures were in line with market forecasts. The balance of trade in the Euro Zone in April ended the month with a surplus of euro 9,9B, which was significantly below market estimate of euro 18,2B. The Industrial Production in the Euro Zone surprisingly dropped in April by -2,4% for the month, which was higher from estimated -1,7%. The IP on a yearly basis stands at 0,8% in April, again below market consensus of 1,4%. Although the inflation in the US is evidently slowing down, as well as long term inflation expectations, still, newly emerged tensions in the Middle East made investors prefer long positions in gold rather than USD. In this sense, USD weakened as of the end of the previous week to the lowest weekly level against euro at 1,1624. Still, the currency pair closed the week at 1,1553. The RSI has not reached the clear overbought market side, reaching the highest level at 66. This leaves some space for eurusd to move further to the higher grounds until the clear overbought market side is reached. The MA50 continues to strongly diverge from MA200, without an indication that the potential cross is near in the future. Usually after a strong push of financial assets toward one side, follows the time when the market is searching the equilibrium level. Depending on further developments on the Middle East crisis, there is a potential that eurusd will start the week ahead with a modest consolidation. The 1,15 resistance line was clearly breached during the previous week, indicating probability that the currency pair will revert a bit back to test for one more time this level. On the opposite side, the 1,16 was shortly tested, but the potential for further upside will depend on weekly fundamentals. The most important event for the week ahead is scheduled for Wednesday, June 16th, when the FOMC meeting is scheduled, as well as US economic projections. This day will most certainly bring some higher volatility on markets. Currently, it is widely expected that the Fed will hold interest rates unchanged at this meeting, and leave the planned rate cut for September. However, what the market is expecting to hear are projections for the future period, especially how the Fed perceives the impact of implemented trade tariffs on the US economy. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany in June, Inflation rate final in May for the Euro Zone, PPI in Germany in May, HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash in June, in both Germany and the Euro Zone, USD: Retail Sales in May, Industrial Production in May, Building Permits preliminary in May, Housing starts in May, the FOMC meeting and interest rate decision will be held on Wednesday, June 18th, the FOMC economic projections will be posted the same day, Fed press conference after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The week ends with data regarding Existing Home Sales in May on Friday.
by XBTFX
2
Long IdeaWhen this occurs, it is not uncommon to see price approach the line, and "throw a spike" over the line. At other times price might approach but not quite reach the previous high or low. This tells you that the current price is already on the correct side. You will therefore expect the price to "bounce down” or “bounce up" as the case may be. This will most often occur around the time of the London open. You should recall that this is likely to be part of the market makers aim of keeping traders trapped. If they've already made a high for instance, and there are positions trapped here then they will not want to push price above it again but will then approach it, perhaps even spike with an enlarged spread and pull away again.
by k45bryant
EURUSD WEEKLY HTF FORECAST Q2 W25 Y25EURUSD WEEKLY HTF FORECAST Q2 W25 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. 💭NOTE- If price closes above the key weekly/ daily order block with daily close- re evaluation will be required. 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
by JCFRGNT
EURUSD Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear subscribers, EURUSD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 1.1441 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 1.1424 About Used Indicators: The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
2
HelenP. I Euro may break suppot level and drop to trend lineHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. Observing this chart, we can see how the price strongly declined and reached the trend line, where it found solid support and reversed. From that point, EUR began to grow, forming a clear upward pennant structure. This movement included a break above the local support level at 1.1485, indicating temporary bullish strength. However, despite this breakout, the price failed to secure a strong push through the resistance zone between 1.1485 and 1.1530, instead consolidating just below it. Now the chart shows clear signs of slowing upward momentum. The price remains inside the pennant, but current movement suggests potential weakness near the top boundary. Given the structure and previous reaction points, I expect EURUSD to break below the support level and move toward the trend line again. This would be a natural retest of the lower boundary of the pennant. That’s why I’ve set my target at 1.1365, a level that coincides perfectly with the trend line, offering a realistic area for price to react once more. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️ Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Short
by FirstNameHelen
6
Euro can reach resistance line of channel and make correctionHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Previously, price was trading inside a downward channel, gradually declining from the resistance line while forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. During that phase, sellers were clearly in control, and every attempt to grow was met with pressure near the channel’s upper boundary. However, that trend shifted once the price broke through the resistance line, confirming the end of the bearish momentum and the start of a new upward structure. After the breakout, EUR entered an upward channel, supported by multiple bullish impulses and consistent reactions near the support line. Price continued to rise, pushing through the support area and current support level around 1.1420. This upward movement showed strong bullish conviction, especially after the clean breakout and consolidation inside the channel body. Now the pair has approached the resistance line of the rising channel, where previous impulses typically slowed down or reversed. Given the channel geometry and past market behavior, I expect Euro to react to this upper boundary and move downward. For this reason, I set my TP at 1.1325, which aligns with the support line of the upward channel. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Short
by LegionQ8
17