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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EURUSD A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.0523 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 1.0496 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
2
#022 DCA EURUSD SHORT Power MovePrice made a power move into a significant resistance level and I decided to short it. I have placed the 1st Sell Limit at the next major resistance level if price does move against us. I am currently in drawdown on the AUDCHF and SGDJPY trade but oh well, since I have yet to enter on anything EUR or USD I think this is a great opportunity for me to continue trading and also serves as some kind of hedge so long as EURUSD moves in our intended direction, or the other pairs I am trading recovers. Shall see.. 2335SGT 04122024
Short
by ProfessionalDuckHunter
EURUSD-TIME FOR REVERSAL- SWING TRADEReversal Opportunity Amid a Bearish Bias FX:EURUSD The EUR/USD is showing potential for a reversal, although the overall probabilities remain bearish. This setup offers an opportunity with a possible 3RR. Trade Management: Today's FED meeting could cause sharp and unexpected market movements. It’s crucial to keep a tight SL to protect against liquidity hunts, especially near the November PML wick. The TP is set at the bearish FVA, but if the price reaches this area, it could signal a higher probability of continued upside. Stay cautious and adapt to market conditions. Manage your risk and remember: capital preservation comes first.
Long
by Jaytradermb
"EUR/USD: Rebound Before Deeper Decline"The EUR/USD currency pair finds itself in a delicate phase of local correction, driven primarily by the temporary softening of the US dollar. This correction comes amidst a backdrop of complex global dynamics and heightened market sensitivity to news-driven events. The currency pair appears poised to retest local highs in the short term, yet traders should approach this opportunity with a heightened sense of vigilance. Today’s economic calendar is packed with high-impact events, and the fundamental backdrop remains skewed heavily toward negativity for the euro. These factors could amplify volatility and result in sharp, unpredictable price movements. ### **Macro and Fundamental Overview** From a macroeconomic perspective, the euro faces a host of challenges that continue to undermine its strength. Persistent global headwinds, such as the lingering effects of Trump-era policies, including tariffs targeting European exports, have placed sustained pressure on the region’s trade dynamics. Meanwhile, Europe’s monetary policy stance remains dovish, with the European Central Bank leaning toward maintaining or even reducing already historically low interest rates. Such a backdrop has solidified the downtrend in EUR/USD, both on a broader and local scale. The US dollar, despite its temporary pullback, remains supported by its role as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. Factors such as a resilient US labor market, better-than-expected GDP figures, and the Fed’s measured approach to monetary policy keep the dollar attractive relative to the euro. The interplay of these forces suggests that the euro’s upward momentum during corrections is likely to remain limited and short-lived. ### **Technical Analysis: False Breakouts and Resistance Retests** On the technical front, the EUR/USD pair is exhibiting signs of a potential false breakout below key support levels. Such patterns often serve as a precursor to temporary price recoveries, as market participants test resistance levels before resuming the dominant trend. In this context, the price action suggests that a retest of nearby resistance levels, coupled with bearish reversal patterns, could pave the way for renewed selling opportunities. The most immediate resistance levels to monitor are 1.0606, 1.0650, and 1.0760. These zones are likely to attract selling pressure, especially if bearish sentiment is reinforced by today’s news events. Conversely, support levels at 1.0517, 1.0440, and 1.0330 remain critical. A decisive break below these levels could accelerate the pair’s descent, signaling the continuation of the broader downtrend. ### **News Sensitivity and Bearish Triggers** Given the heavily saturated news cycle, traders should remain particularly attentive to market reactions to economic releases and geopolitical developments. Key announcements, such as US labor market data, European inflation figures, or updates on trade negotiations, could act as catalysts for sharp price swings. If bearish triggers dominate, such as unexpectedly hawkish commentary from the Fed or further downgrades to Europe’s growth outlook, the pair is likely to face renewed selling pressure, particularly at resistance zones. ### **Trading Strategy and Outlook** In this environment, a prudent trading approach involves waiting for confirmation of bearish reversal signals at resistance levels before considering short positions. Patience is key, as the market may temporarily attempt to test or even breach resistance before resuming its downward trajectory. Traders should also consider using tight stop-loss levels to mitigate risk, given the potential for heightened volatility. To summarize, while the local correction in EUR/USD presents a short-term opportunity to test resistance levels, the overarching bearish narrative remains intact. The interplay of weak euro fundamentals, dovish monetary policy, and a generally strong US dollar points to further downside potential. Monitoring key technical levels, understanding news-driven volatility, and adopting a disciplined approach to risk management will be crucial for navigating the next phase of this downtrend.
Short
by lonelyPlayer0
1
EUR/USD GET THE MONEY!Looking EUR/USD chart here are my observations: 1. Price Action & Trend Analysis Current Price: 1.04923, indicating a downward trajectory. The pair is clearly in a downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows being formed over the past few months. The price is below both the 50 EMA (1.0728) and the 200 EMA (1.0832), which reinforces the bearish trend. Recent candles show a consolidation near 1.0500, suggesting indecision or the formation of a short-term base. 2. Support and Resistance Levels Resistance: Immediate resistance is near 1.0532 (highlighted zone on the chart). Further resistance lies around 1.0600, which aligns with the EMA levels and a previous support-turned-resistance zone. Support: The current price seems to be hovering just above a support level at 1.0450, which aligns with the recent lows. A breakdown below this could lead to a retest of the next support at 1.0400 or lower. 3. Indicators RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 33.88, indicating the pair is near the oversold zone. While this suggests bearish pressure, it could also hint at a potential reversal if buyers step in. MACD: The MACD line is below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. However, the histogram shows a slight reduction in selling pressure, suggesting that bearish momentum could be weakening. 4. Observations from Chart Patterns and Signals Multiple red sell signals indicate sustained bearish sentiment. The blue buy signal near recent support (around 1.0450) suggests potential for a small bounce or reversal at this level. Consolidation near the psychological level of 1.0500 might lead to a breakout or breakdown, depending on market sentiment. 5. Sentiment & Fundamentals The news on the right-hand side (e.g., "Euro steady ahead of French no-confidence vote") suggests macroeconomic factors could heavily influence the pair. Continued bearishness in EUR/USD could also be linked to strength in the USD or weakness in the Eurozone economy. Lower Highs (LH) First LH: Around 1.1275 (visible at the top of the chart), marking the peak before the downtrend started. Second LH: Around 1.1050, where the price attempted to rally but failed, forming a lower peak. Third LH: Around 1.0850, a smaller rebound that also failed below the previous lower high. Fourth LH: Around 1.0650, the most recent swing high before continuing downward. Lower Lows (LL) First LL: Around 1.0950, the initial significant dip after the first LH. Second LL: Around 1.0750, breaking below the first LL and continuing the downtrend. Third LL: Around 1.0550, the next lower trough as the downtrend persisted. Fourth LL: Around 1.0450, the current area of consolidation and the lowest point on the chart so far. Visual Explanation The sequence alternates between lower highs (peaks) and lower lows (troughs), forming the classic downtrend structure: Lower High → Lower Low → Lower High → Lower Low. Key Levels to Watch A new lower low below 1.0450 would confirm the continuation of the downtrend. A higher high above 1.0532 (recent swing resistance) could signal a potential trend reversal. Summary Bearish Bias: The pair is in a clear downtrend. A break below 1.0450 could open doors for further downside toward 1.0400 or lower. Potential Reversal: If RSI stays near oversold levels and the pair holds the 1.0450 support zone, we might see a short-term bounce to retest 1.0532 or higher. Actionable Levels: Watch for a breakout above 1.0532 for bullish opportunities. A breakdown below 1.0450 confirms bearish continuation. THIS AINT FINANCIAL ADVICE YOU DO YOU!!
by DerrickJerry
EURO - Price can bounce down from resistance area to $1.0385Hi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 A few days ago price bounced from $1.1000 level and rose to $1.1205 points, after which turned around. Then price started to decline inside falling channel, where it at once reached and broke $1.1000 level. After this, EUR fell to support line of falling channel, and then bounced and rose to resisatnce line, making a first gap. Price made downward impulse, thereby exiting from channel and starting to trades inside flat, breaking $1.0585 level too. In flat, Euro fell to bottom part but then turned around, made a second gap, and now trades close to $1.0585 level. In my mind, Euro can enter to resistance area and then start to decline to $1.0385, which coincides with bottom part of flat. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Short
by WalterMoon
10
Silver Bullet Strategy EURUSD AUDUSD | 03/12/2024Trading the Silver Bullet strategy was tough yesterday. While many may only discuss the wins associated with their trading strategies, we encountered some losses yesterday. We entered two trades on two major currency pairs (EURUSD, AUDUSD) and aim to walk you through what happened during our trading session using the Silver Bullet strategy. At 10:00 EST, we began scouting for potential trading setups, as this marks the beginning of the Silver Bullet window, which concludes at 11:00 EST. By 10:20 EST, a Fair Value Gap (FVG) had formed on the EURUSD currency pair, presenting us with a sell bias and directing our attention to potential selling opportunities in EURUSD for the current trading session. Upon reviewing AUDUSD, we observed that an FVG had also formed at 10:20 EST, further indicating a sell bias for the currency pair. Once we establish a bias, we typically wait for a retracement into the formed FVG and only execute the trade after the candle that enters the FVG has closed. This step is crucial on our checklist because our backtesting revealed scenarios where the candle entering the FVG could proceed to hit the stop loss. This check helps us avoid entering trades under such conditions. Meanwhile, those who use limit orders may find themselves at a disadvantage in these situations. After a 20-minute wait following the formation of the FVG, we identified a trade on EURUSD that satisfied all the criteria on our checklist, and without hesitation, we proceeded to execute the trade. In this trade, since the high of candle number 1 from the entry price is approximately 7 pips, which does not satisfy the minimum stop loss requirement, we adjust it to a 10 pips stop loss, our minimum threshold. This rule ensures the trade has sufficient room to fluctuate. Immediately after executing the EURUSD trade, we identified another opportunity with AUDUSD that met all the criteria on our checklist. As it fulfilled the necessary requirements, we proceeded without hesitation to execute the trade. Please be aware that we risk 1% of our trading account on each trade. This level of risk is acceptable for us, as it's an amount we're comfortable with potentially losing, thus preventing emotional attachment to the trades. Ten minutes after initiating a sell position on EURUSD, our trade reached the stop loss, resulting in a 1% loss for the day. Consequently, we are left with our sell position on AUDUSD. After incurring a loss on EURUSD, we examined the AUDUSD position and found that this trade was also facing a drawdown. Did we experience any emotions upon realizing we might lose 2% that day? No, because we had already accepted the risk and were prepared for any outcome, whether it was a win or a loss. We were aware that the strategy's win rate was around 48%, indicating that losses are a part of the process. However, with a positive risk-to-reward ratio, our wins are expected to outweigh the losses. While awaiting the outcome of the AUDUSD trade, we noticed a setup on USDCAD where a Fair Value Gap (FVG) had formed. However, upon closer inspection, we realized it materialized exactly at 11:00 EST. This timing meant we couldn't engage in the trade, as our checklist mandates that trades must be executed before 11:00 EST, thus invalidating this setup. It's important to note our discipline here; despite the temptation, we didn't enter another trade out of revenge. Instead, we let it pass because it failed to meet certain criteria on our checklist. Discipline is a crucial quality of a successful trader and should never be underestimated. Upon reviewing the AUDUSD trade once more, we observed that it was no longer in a drawdown; instead, the trade had returned to our entry price. Consequently, there was no action required other than to allow the trade to proceed as it will After being in the trade for an hour and 10 minutes, the AUDUSD position hit the stop loss, putting us down 2% for the day. Indeed, we took two losses and it's likely we'll face more, as that is the nature of trading. It's normal to encounter multiple losses throughout your trading career, and it's crucial not to let them discourage you. Ensure that any strategy you use has been thoroughly backtested and has the data to support its long-term profitability. Also, make certain that your wins consistently exceed your losses, so that during a losing streak, just a few wins can compensate for the losses.
Education
by CleoFinance
1
EURUSD - Near a Bearish BreakWe were expecting a bullish continuation on EURUSD however as the Dollar continues to go up, EURUSD is edging a breakout which could open lower levels. If the support holds, we should see a Bullish reversal otherwise it is destined for a bearish move. For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management. If you found this analysis helpful, please consider boosting and following for more updates. Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Short
by MarketsPOV
EURUSD H1 04/12/2024 - SELL below 1.04900 OR BUY above 1.05150Time Frame Analysis D1 (Daily Timeframe) Trend: Bearish overall, with the price below the Ichimoku Cloud and the 200 SMA. However, the price is consolidating above the 1.0490–1.0500 support zone. Indicators: RSI: 38.7, near oversold but stabilizing. Stochastic: Slightly bearish but approaching a bullish crossover near 50. MACD: Negative but narrowing, showing consolidation. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.0550–1.0580 (Daily Ichimoku and prior highs). Support: 1.0480–1.0490 (Key structural support). H4 (4-Hour Timeframe) Trend: Price is consolidating below the 200 SMA and inside the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating uncertainty. Indicators: RSI: 44, slightly bearish. Stochastic: Neutral, with potential for a bullish crossover. MACD: Negative but flat, showing low momentum. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.0530 (upper Ichimoku boundary), 1.0550. Support: 1.0490 (lower Ichimoku boundary), 1.0465. H1 (Hourly Timeframe) Trend: Consolidating within a tight range of 1.0490–1.0510. Indicators: RSI: 46, leaning bearish but neutral. Stochastic: Slight bearish crossover but near oversold, with potential for reversal. MACD: Flat, showing consolidation. ATR: 16 pips, indicating low volatility. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.0515–1.0530 (recent highs and Ichimoku resistance). Support: 1.0490 (current floor), 1.0465 (next support below). M30 (30-Minute Timeframe) Trend: Similar to H1, consolidating within a tight range. Indicators: Neutral with signs of potential support near 1.0490. Trade Scenarios Scenario A: Bullish Breakout (BUY Setup) Rationale: If the price holds above 1.0490 support and breaks above 1.0515, it could target the next resistance levels. Setup Details: Entry Price: Above 1.0515 (breakout confirmation). Stop-Loss: 1.0490 (below consolidation support). Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0530 (H4 Ichimoku resistance). TP2: 1.0550 (Daily resistance level). Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2. Scenario B: Bearish Breakdown (SELL Setup) Rationale: If the price breaks below 1.0490, it could target lower support levels, aligning with the broader bearish trend. Setup Details: Entry Price: Below 1.0490 (breakdown confirmation). Stop-Loss: 1.0510 (above consolidation). Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0465 (next key support). TP2: 1.0440 (H4 and Daily support area). Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2. Correlated Instruments to Monitor DXY (US Dollar Index): A weaker DXY supports the BUY scenario (EUR/USD up). A stronger DXY supports the SELL scenario (EUR/USD down). Gold (XAU/USD): If gold rises, it could weaken the USD and support a BUY trade on EUR/USD. US 10-Year Treasury Yields: Rising yields favor USD strength (SELL scenario). Falling yields favor USD weakness (BUY scenario).
by napoleon182
Markets Slowing Down Ahead of NFP, What To Lookout ForHey There, The dollar has been in demand so far this week, boosted by it being seen as a safe-haven amid political turmoil in both South Korea and Europe as well as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. With France’s government facing “No Confidence votes” that could spell the end of the short-lived administration of Prime Minister Michael Barnier, pushing the country into uncharted waters of political chaos. Gold Prices rose marginally as political turmoil in South Korea spurred some safe haven demand along with fears of a collaps in the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. However, trades continue to remain on the sidelines amid anticipation for more cues on U.S interest rates. But any gains in gold were largely limited by a spike in the dollar as it soared on uncertainty over the long term outlook for U.S rates.
by DeanMuller
4
Technical Analysis for EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar)Chart Structure: Head and Shoulders Pattern: A reverse Head and Shoulders pattern is visible on the 1-hour chart, indicating a potential reversal to an upward trend. The Neckline is located at 1.0578, and its breakout could confirm the start of an upward move. Fibonacci Levels: The 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.0578 acts as a key support. The 0.786 Fibonacci level at 1.0719 and the 1.0 level at 1.0824 are identified as potential targets if the Neckline is broken. Indicators Used: Ichimoku: The price is near the Kumos (cloud), and a breakout above the cloud could signal further upward movement. Alligator: The Alligator lines are opening up, indicating an increase in volatility and the potential continuation of the trend. Price Action Forecast: If the price breaks the Neckline at 1.0578, an upward move toward the 1.0719 and then 1.0824 levels is expected. If the price fails to break the Neckline, there could be a reversal back toward lower support levels, such as 1.0498. Conclusion: Bullish Scenario: A breakout and hold above 1.0578 would support further upward movement toward Fibonacci targets. Bearish Scenario: A failure to break the Neckline could lead to a decline and continuation of the current downward trend. This analysis is based on technical tools and should ideally be combined with fundamental analysis for a more comprehensive outlook.
Long
by arongroups
eurusd - buyEURUSD Trade Idea: Bullish Bias Summary: This setup indicates a buy opportunity for EURUSD, supported by strong seasonal trends and favorable exogenous factors, with EUR gaining strength over USD. Key Points: Seasonality: EUR shows bullish momentum from Nov 25 to Dec 29, while USD faces bearish pressure from Nov 23 to Dec 6, favoring EURUSD upside. Commitment of Traders (COT): EUR is at the bottom, while USD is near the bottom, leaning toward a buy bias for EURUSD. Exogenous Factors: Balance of Payments (BOP): Neutral for both currencies, with no significant impact. GDP Growth Differential: Positive for EUR and negative for USD, favoring EUR. Interest Rates (IR): Positive for EUR, negative for USD, providing additional bullish momentum. Stocks: Negative for EUR and positive for USD, slightly offsetting the bullish outlook. Exogenous Score: EUR: +45.5 vs. USD: -22.5, supporting a buy bias for EURUSD. Trade Bias: Buy EURUSD, as seasonal and exogenous factors strongly favor EUR over USD.
Long
by AtifDhedhi
#EURUSD : some bullish correction!#EURUSD DAILY: According to the daily time frame, the price trend is still bearish if it is trading below 1.040. But we expect some bullish correction from the current levels of 1.0500 and the price will test the levels of 1.0800, which also represents the first target for the ab=cd pattern (50% correction of the AD leg), and the target of the inverted head and shoulders pattern. * This bullish vision will be confirmed if the price breaks the 1.0600 levels. #harmonic_trading #abcd_pattern #headandshoulders
Long
by AhmedHassanien
EURUSD - Outlook for 04/12/2024EURUSD has been ranging and completed a lower move to support. As far as the support holds, we should see above levels tapped in coming sessions. A sustained break of support will result in bearish move to lower levels. For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management. If you found this analysis helpful, please consider boosting and following for more updates. Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Long
by MarketsPOV