eurusdis this the end of bullish move ????
in my idea its time to sell eurusd pair
but with low stop loss
USDEUX trade ideas
EURUSD - Bulls Laughing As We Book 490+ Pips!Massive draw to the upside with EURUSD booking highs @ 1.08890 for this week.
This draw to the upside was 100% aligned with my monthly bias which has now been met which means I must keep my powder dry.
This does not mean i can't make a few risky plays here and there...
Although aware of the bullish nature of price action, I am interested in a minor retracement back down into the 3-month bearish order block @ 1.07440. I am not anticipating a weekly closure, just a mere draw on liquidity.
What Is a Spot Rate and How It Is Used in Trading?What Is a Spot Rate and How It Is Used in Trading?
Spot rates are a cornerstone of trading, reflecting the real-time price for immediate settlement of assets like currencies and commodities. They provide traders with crucial insights into market conditions and influence strategies across various domains. This article explores what spot rates are, how they work, and their role in trading.
Spot Rate Definition
The spot rate is the current price at which an asset, such as a currency, commodity, or security, can be bought or sold for immediate delivery. In essence, it’s what the market says something is worth right now, reflecting real-time supply and demand. Unlike future prices, which are influenced by expectations and contracts for later delivery, this type of pricing is all about the present.
Spot rates are especially crucial in highly liquid assets like forex and commodities, where prices can change rapidly based on global events. To use an example, if the rate for the euro against the dollar is 1.1050, that’s the price at which traders can exchange euros for dollars at that moment. It’s dynamic, adjusting instantly to factors like economic news, interest rate changes, and geopolitical developments.
Spot pricing also serves as a benchmark in derivative contracts, such as futures, influencing how traders and businesses hedge against potential price movements. For instance, a gold producer might monitor these quotes closely to decide when to lock in prices.
Spot Rate vs Forward Rate: What's the Difference
The spot and forward rates (or spot rate vs contract rate) are both used to price assets, but they serve different purposes. While the spot rate is the current price for immediate settlement, the forward rate is the agreed-upon price in a transaction set to occur at a future date.
The former reflects conditions right now—shaped by immediate supply and demand. Forward rates, on the other hand, factor in expectations about future conditions, such as borrowing cost changes or potential economic shifts. For example, if a company expects to receive payments in a foreign currency within a certain period, it can use a forward rate to guarantee the amount it will receive and avoid adverse exchange rate fluctuations.
One key link between the two is that forward rates are derived from spot pricing, adjusted by factors like interest rate differentials between two currencies or the cost of carrying a commodity. In forex trading, if borrowing costs in the US are higher than in the eurozone, the forward rate for EUR/USD may price in a weaker euro relative to the dollar.
Specifically, a forward rate is determined by three factors: its underlying spot rate, interest rate differential, and the contract’s time to expiry.
Backwardation and Contango
Backwardation and contango are terms used to describe the pricing structure of futures markets, specifically the relationship between spot prices and futures contract prices. These concepts help traders understand broader expectations and supply-demand dynamics.
In backwardation, the spot price of an asset is higher than its future prices. This often happens when demand for immediate delivery outweighs supply. In the oil market, backwardation might occur if there’s a short-term supply disruption, causing the current price to spike while future prices remain lower, reflecting expectations of supply returning to normal.
On the other hand, contango occurs when future prices are higher than spot quotes. This can indicate that holding costs, such as storage fees or insurance, are factored into the future price. For instance, in gold, contango might be typical since storing gold involves costs, which are priced into future contracts.
These structures aren’t just theoretical—they directly affect trading strategies. CFD traders can use these concepts to anticipate market movements and hedge against adverse price changes. By understanding market sentiment and expectations, traders can speculate on the direction of prices.
How Spot Rates Are Determined
Spot prices are dynamic and reflect the immediate balance of supply and demand. They fluctuate based on several key factors that shape trading activity and market conditions.
- Supply and Demand Dynamics: When demand for an asset outpaces its supply, the rate rises, and vice versa. For example, a spike in demand for oil due to geopolitical tensions can push its price higher.
- Economic Indicators: Inflation data, GDP growth, and employment figures heavily influence spot quotes, particularly in forex. A strong economic report can lead to currency appreciation, while weak data may have the opposite effect.
- Interest Rate Differentials: In forex, differing interest rates between countries impact currency spot rates. Higher borrowing costs in one country can attract investment, driving up demand for its currency and its price.
- Liquidity: Highly liquid assets, like major currency pairs, might have more consistent prices. Less liquid assets can see greater price volatility due to fewer participants.
- Geopolitical Events: Elections, wars, and natural disasters can cause sudden price shifts by disrupting supply chains or altering economic outlooks.
Types of Spot Markets
Spot markets are where assets are traded for immediate settlement, offering real-time pricing and instant transactions.
- Forex: The largest spot market, where currencies like the euro or dollar are exchanged at the current rate, often used by traders to capitalise on short-term price movements.
- Commodities: Includes trading raw materials like gold, oil, or wheat. Buyers and sellers agree on the spot price for immediate delivery, reflecting current supply-demand dynamics.
- Equities: Shares of publicly traded companies are bought and sold at the prevailing market price on exchanges like the London Stock Exchange or NYSE.
- Cryptocurrencies*: Although not mentioned earlier, these involve buying and selling digital assets like Bitcoin at current prices and receiving an instant ownership transfer.
What Spot Rates Mean for Traders and Markets
Spot rates are effectively snapshots of reality, reflecting the current balance of supply and demand. For traders, they provide a critical context for decision-making and deeper insights.
Market Sentiment and Timing Opportunities
These rates offer a real-time lens into market sentiment. Sudden price movements often signal shifts in supply, demand, or broader economic conditions. For instance, a rapid rise in the spot price of oil might indicate geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains, which could have knock-on effects across energy-related sectors. Traders monitoring these shifts can identify potential opportunities to capitalise on short-term volatility or avoid unnecessary exposure.
In addition, spot rates reveal liquidity levels. Highly liquid markets, such as major forex pairs like EUR/USD, typically have tighter spreads and more consistent prices. By contrast, less liquid assets might exhibit greater price discrepancies, signalling caution or potential opportunities to analyse deeper.
Impact on Strategy and Broader Markets
Spot rates directly influence trading strategies, especially in markets tied to commodities or currencies. Futures pricing, for instance, is often built upon the spot quote. Traders use these quotes to gauge whether hedging or speculative strategies align with current dynamics. A mismatch between spot and futures prices can indicate a contango or backwardation scenario, providing insight into whether traders are expecting costs or supply changes in the near term.
Beyond individual strategies, they also ripple through broader markets. For businesses and investors, they act as barometers in cost evaluating and pricing. For example, airlines keep a close eye on the current price of jet fuel to decide when to secure future contracts, directly impacting operational costs and profitability. Similarly, multinational companies use spot pricing in forex to manage cross-border expenses or revenue.
The Bottom Line
Spot rates are at the heart of trading, offering real-time insights into market conditions and influencing strategies across financial markets. Understanding how they work can help traders navigate potential opportunities and risks.
Whether you trade forex, commodities, stocks or other markets, choosing the right broker is essential. Open an FXOpen account to access competitive trading conditions, 700+ markets, and user-friendly platforms and trade CFDs designed for all levels of traders.
FAQ
What Is a Spot Rate?
A spot rate represents the price at which an asset, such as a currency, commodity, or security, is currently available for immediate settlement. Traders and businesses often use these prices as benchmarks in transactions and to assess market conditions.
What Does Spot Price Mean?
The spot rate meaning refers to the exact market price for an asset at a specific moment in time. It’s the price buyers are willing to pay and sellers are willing to accept for immediate delivery. These prices are dynamic, changing with broader conditions.
When to Use Spot Rate?
Spot rates are commonly used when immediate delivery of an asset is required. Traders often rely on them in short-term positions, while businesses might use them for immediate currency exchanges or raw material purchases. They’re also used as reference points when evaluating forward contracts and derivatives.
How Are Spot Exchange Rates Determined?
Spot exchange rates are determined by the forces of supply and demand. Factors like interest rates, economic data, geopolitical events, and liquidity can influence them.
Is Spot Trading Risk Free?
No, all trading carries risks. Prices can be volatile, and unexpected market events may lead to losses. Understanding these risks and using proper risk management techniques can help potentially mitigate losses.
*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.
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EURUSD Approaching Key Resistance – Will Sellers Step In?OANDA:EURUSD is approaching a significant resistance zone, highlighted by previous price reactions and strong selling interest. This area has historically acted as a supply zone, where sellers have stepped in, leading to notable price reversals. The current price action suggests a potential bearish reaction if the resistance holds.
If sellers maintain control, we could see a decline toward the 1.03940 level, which represents a logical target based on the current market structure. Confirmation signals—such as a bearish engulfing candle, rejection wick, or increased selling volume—would strengthen the bearish outlook.
However, if the price breaks above this resistance zone and sustains momentum, the bearish outlook may be invalidated, signaling a potential shift in favor of buyers.
Monitoring how price reacts to this zone is crucial for identifying entry opportunities. As always, applying proper risk management is essential given the potential for volatility.
Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
Best of luck!
EURUSD - market structureEURUSD - market structure , direct trade without fractal confirmation from extrem area, use risk managment
Downtrend Continuation – FVG Rejection📌 Idea: Expecting a rejection from FVG as part of the downtrend continuation. If the price moves higher, we should look for structure break on lower timeframes to confirm a short entry.
📊 Entry conditions:
Rejection from FVG and confirmation of the short setup
If the price moves up – look for structure shift on lower TFs
Take profit: First low that reacts from the 4H order block
After that, a possible retest of BB and FVG before the true downward move
🎯 Target: First low reacting from the 4H order block
⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always consider risk management!
Market Analysis: EUR/USD RalliesMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Rallies
EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.0550 resistance.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today
- The Euro started a decent recovery wave from the 1.0360 zone against the US Dollar.
- There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0570 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.0360 zone. The Euro cleared the 1.0450 resistance to move into a bullish zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the last analysis.
The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0550. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0635 resistance. A high was formed near 1.0637 and the pair is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0359 swing low to the 1.0637 high.
Immediate support on the downside is near a connecting bullish trend line at 1.0570. The next major support is the 1.0500 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0359 swing low to the 1.0637 high.
A downside break below the 1.0500 support could send the pair toward the 1.0465 level. Any more losses might send the pair into a bearish zone toward 1.0425.
Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 1.0635 zone. The first major resistance is near the 1.0665 level. An upside break above the 1.0665 level might send the pair toward the 1.0720 resistance.
The next major resistance is near the 1.0750 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0800 level.
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EUR/USDTrading Symbol: EUR/USD
Timeframe: 5-Minute
Overall Review:
The EUR/USD chart on the 5-minute timeframe shows that the price is in an upward trend.
The ascending trendline is clearly visible, and the price has reacted to it.
Key Points:
Support Levels:
Support levels are visible near 1.07699 and below. These levels can be considered as entry points for buy trades.
Another significant support is seen near 1.06506, which could be the next target for sellers if the previous support levels are breached.
Resistance Levels:
The main resistance is near 1.08114. Breaking this level could indicate a continuation of the upward trend.
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
If the price remains above 1.07718 and the ascending trendline is maintained, there is a possibility of the upward trend continuing to the 1.08114 level.
Traders can consider buying near the support levels while practicing risk management.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks the ascending trendline and falls below 1.07699, the price may decrease to the 1.06506 level.
In this case, traders can consider selling near the resistance levels while practicing risk management.
Recommendations:
Always practice risk management and use stop-loss orders.
Before entering a trade, review the fundamental factors and economic news related to EUR/USD.
This analysis is based on the 5-minute chart and may differ in other timeframes.
Note: This analysis is just a perspective and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own analysis and consult with a financial advisor before making trades.
EURUSD: Channel Up has topped. Sell signal.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.145, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 17.266) and overbought on the lower timeframes with the 4H RSI in particular above 75.000. The Channel Up that started on the February 2nd low had every HH pull back to its 0.618 Fib level. Consequently we are short on the short term (TP = 1.04500). If the price crosses under this 1 month Channel Up, the longer Channel Up should push even lower to the 0.786 Fib of the greater bullish wave (TP = 1.03000).
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Long After Gap Reaction📌 Idea: The week started with a gap, and I expect a reaction in long. Entry after confirmation of rejection.
📊 Entry conditions:
Rejection from the gap
Confirmation on lower TFs (M15/H1)
Take Profit 1: First high
Take Profit 2: Slightly above the first high
🎯 Target: Gap fill and continuation upward
⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always consider risk management!
EURUSD CONTINUATION UPDATESThis idea base only on fib 2.31 of the retracements, my idea is on LONGs only, wether the price retrace back or it continues.
Trade only at your own risk. 1:2 trade is fine.
This is not a financial advice either.
Follow for more Swing trades.
[EURUSD] Bullish Breakout Confirmed! Reversal pattern formation.📈 EURUSD Price Forecast – Bullish Breakout Confirmed! 🚀
EURUSD has formed a double bottom chart pattern at the bottom of the downtrend, signaling a potential trend reversal. The market has successfully broken out of the trendline with a strong bullish candle, followed by a retracement on the second bottom—a textbook confirmation of trend continuation.
🔍 Key Technical Insights:
✅ Double Bottom Formation – A strong reversal signal.
✅ Breakout of the Neckline – Confirmation of bullish momentum.
✅ Breakout of 50EMA – Buyers are gaining control.
✅ Trendline Retest Completed – Classic bullish setup.
📊 Technical Target Levels:
🎯 1st Target: 1.0930
🎯 2nd Target: 1.1180
📢 Final Thoughts:
EURUSD is showing strong bullish momentum, and buyers are in control. Watch for a sustained move above the neckline to confirm the next leg higher!
🔔 Like, Comment & Follow for more expert analysis! 🚀
(This analysis is for learning purposes only, not financial advice.)
Smart Money: Key Zones for Entry and Market RebalancingHello, friends!
Below is my market analysis, where for each key element of the Smart Money concept I use.
1. Premium/Discount zones allow me to quickly identify where capital works most profitably. Using the Fibonacci Correction tool, I find areas that indicate entry opportunities: buying in the discount zone and selling in the premium zone. This helps to form a basic picture of the market balance.
2.OTE helps me find optimal entry points by refining the zones defined by the basic correction. This tool allows me to look at possible entry areas in more detail, making the signals more accurate.
3. When analyzing market movements, I pay attention to FVGs that arise due to a lack of liquidity during impulse movements. Such cavities indicate an imbalance that the market is trying to eliminate, which creates additional opportunities for rebalancing and entering a position.
4.With ImpIMB analysis, I find imbalances where the center candle is significant and its wicks overlap on both sides. This allows me to isolate the zone that signals an aggressive market, giving additional trading clues without revealing all the details.
5.GAP is formed when a cavity appears between the extremes of candles due to a sharp market opening. Using Fibonacci, I outline these areas, because they often become benchmarks for future rebalancing and correction of market dynamics.
Best wishes Mvp_fx_hunter
Eurusd chart Anylisis 1Hour check captain Eurusd chart Anylisis 1Hour idea 💡
Use proper money management 🤠
EURUSD Massive Short! SELL!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for EURUSD is below:
The market is trading on 1.0848 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 1.0817
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD H1As we see we have a choch to up trend
and we detect a demand zone equal 50% level of fibo now if the price come back to the zone we take long
LR
EURUSD H1 new OUTLOOKEurusd seeking its position again lets try for short in Eurusd here with a targer of 300pips please follow money management and hit the boost button and comment on this idea follow for more updates thanks
best regards ALBERT
123 Quick Learn Trading Tips #4: Spot or Futures? Real or Fake?123 Quick Learn Trading Tips #4: Spot or Futures? Real or Fake? 🧐
News : $1.3 Billion has been liquidated 💥 from the FUTURES market within the past 24 hours, as Bitcoin plummeted to $86,000. 📉
Futures leveraged traders were forced to close their positions, realizing a collective loss of $1.3 Billion.
This shows how risky trading with leverage (borrowed money) can be. 💸 ⚠️
Traders who use leverage enter into a gambling game with exchanges, which always win the game. In other words, in the last 24 hours, several crypto exchanges made $1.3 billion in profits.
On the other hand, people who bought Bitcoin directly (spot market) only lost a small amount of profit. This shows that owning the actual asset is more stable. 💎
Traders using leverage lose their money. But for spot investors, this is a good chance to buy more Bitcoin at a low price and make their long-term position stronger. 💰
Like I always tell my students and friends:
Let's go up the spot market stairs, step by step. 🪜 Don't think about the futures elevator. 🏢 It has crashed many times, 📉 and it will crash again. ⚠️
Instead of gambling in the "fake" futures game,
invest your money in the "real" spot market. 💎
Build your investments by owning assets, not by risky leverage. 🚫
Have a nice trading journey!
EURUSD - Next target: Last swing of the three-drive patternGiven the bullish order flow on the lower timeframe and the decreasing strength of bullish candles on the upper timeframe, we are likely to see another attempt to form the last swing of the three-drive pattern on the 4-hour timeframe.
The price is expected to move higher after the correction on the 15-minute timeframe to more penetrate the daily order block.
EURUSD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.050.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.045 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
eurusdin this week we have important news on us dollar and Europe
but on chat
the price breaks the trend line downward and today it goes for retest the 1.0500 zoon and trend line , so i think eur/usd will goes down again
EURUSD Chart analysis backed by Math.The move highlighted in Green is an on-going five wave that is the B of a zigzag that started at the end of Wave 3. Currently, an A is forming and is not completed then a 3 Wave move will begin and will be called B.
