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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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EUR/USD - Bullish opportunity for 23 pip short term trade On the daily chart we can see that price is hovering around a significant support/resistance zone. This area has been touched twice 8-9 months ago, forming a double top reversal pattern, and continuing downward. Price broke this level about a month ago on high volume and was unable to sustain such high prices, resulting in a recent break below this significant support/resistance zone. Price then re-tested the zone and failed to confidently close above the zone, now lingering below it. A trendline is placed connecting two recent lows, creating a 47 degree angle, signaling a healthy uptrend. This trendline is broken, in addition with the significant support/resistance zone also being broken, signaling a possible downtrend. Zooming down into the 1 hour, we can identify a downward channel that price has traded within. The significant break below the channel on high volume signaled an exhaustion move. This could be interpreted as a selling climax and one could expect prices to begin rallying up from this point, for a possible reversal. However, prices returned into the channel and were unable to move above the SMA 200 or outside of the channel, thus the downtrend remains intact. Moreover, this exhaustion move broke the significant support/resistance level that we mentioned earlier, and because prices could not move above the SMA 200, this was a successful break of the level, retest of the level, and now continuation of the break. From a day trading perspective, there is an opportunity to take a quick short term trade of 20-25 pips in a long position. A fair value gap exists due to the red candle at 10:00 AM on Friday so there is a liklihood that price will fill this gap and then proceed downward. The best moment to capitalize on a trade like this would be at market open around 6:00pm EST when spreads are lowest. The goal being to get into a trade that fills the fair value gap/targets the significant support/resistance zone, and setting a stop loss that grants a 1 to 2 risk to reward ratio. The expectation being that price will continue to rally and not make any downturns while it fills the gap. As always with any trade, there is a risk that it will not work and your stop will hit before the profitable move takes place.
Long
by TAandFA
"Boom. Called it before it happened. Now watch it fly!"Price did exactly what was anticipated — a clean drop into the demand zone, followed by a sharp reaction. This setup was all about patience and precision. As drawn on the chart, structure held, liquidity was grabbed, and now we’re eyeing that breakout to the upside. Zoom in and you’ll see the textbook pattern forming — correction, trap, then rally. This is how you forecast with confidence. Stay sharp, stay prepared — the next move is already in motion. #EURUSD #ForexTrading
Long
by Greenfireforex
14
EURUSD – Rebalancing Before Repricing HigherEURUSD is currently trading within a corrective phase after failing to sustain its bullish momentum from the earlier impulsive rally. The market structure on the 1-hour chart shows a clean breakdown from recent highs, with sellers starting to step in more aggressively. This pullback feels more like a calculated retracement than a complete trend reversal, and the market may be seeking out a deeper discount before any continuation higher. With multiple rejections forming at lower highs and downside pressure increasing, it looks like EURUSD wants to drive lower first before making a run for higher levels. Consolidation Structure We’ve been consolidating after the last upward push, forming a short-term range with price grinding sideways but gradually bleeding lower. What stands out is the clear cluster of equal lows forming, acting as obvious sell-side liquidity. Just below that area sits a 1-hour fair value gap that remains unmitigated, offering a strong magnet for price. The FVG sits just beneath the golden pocket zone, which adds more confluence for a potential reaction from that area. This range looks designed to draw in early buyers, only to flush them out before price finds real support. Bearish Scenario – Setup for a Deeper Retracement Right now, the structure leans bearish in the short term. The market looks like it wants to run the lows and wick into the 1-hour fair value gap sitting below the golden pocket. This area is an unmitigated imbalance that lines up perfectly with the idea of a final liquidity grab. I’m expecting price to reach down into that gap, around the 1.112 region, before any kind of reversal occurs. The goal of this move would be to clear out stops and rebalance the inefficiency from the previous rally, setting the stage for the next leg higher. Bullish Scenario – Reversal from Discount Once price trades into the 1.112 zone and sweeps the current lows, the setup for a bullish reversal becomes much cleaner. That area offers a combination of liquidity, inefficiency, and fib confluence, making it a high-probability level for buyers to step back in. If we get a solid rejection or displacement out of that level, the upside potential opens up quickly. The idea is that after this corrective move and stop hunt, the market reclaims momentum and starts driving toward the next key structure zone. Price Target and Expectations If price delivers the expected sweep and mitigation into 1.112, I’ll be looking for confirmation of bullish intent and signs of strength to enter long. The target sits much higher, all the way at the 0.28 fib level, which is around 1.20. That level offers a logical take-profit zone based on fib projection and structure alignment. The potential reward-to-risk on this move is excellent if the entry holds and the displacement confirms. This would essentially be a play on manipulation and continuation, classic liquidity run before expansion. Conclusion EURUSD is setting up nicely for a textbook sweep-and-reverse play. The market is currently moving lower, and I’m expecting that move to extend into the 1-hour FVG just below the golden pocket, targeting an entry near 1.112. From there, if price reacts cleanly, the next leg should aim for the 0.28 fib level at 1.20. All the ingredients are there: a clean imbalance, obvious liquidity to take, and a higher-timeframe fib target to anchor the move. Just need to wait for price to do its job and follow the plan. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
by TehThomas
40
EURUSD - Shift In Momentum Confirmed!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈After breaking below the structure marked in orange, EURUSD's momentum has been shifted from bullish to bearish. EURUSD is currently rejecting the upper bound of its falling channel marked in red. Moreover, it is retesting the orange structure. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of structure and upper red trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance. 📚 As per my trading style: As #EURUSD is around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TheSignalyst
4
EUR/USD Playbook: Precision Day Trading from Range to BreakoutEUR/USD is in a bullish correction on the daily chart, holding above the 21-EMA with compressed moving averages signaling consolidation. The pair trades in a 1.1170–1.1230 range on the 1-hour chart, presenting ideal day-trading opportunities. Volume spikes at support (1.1170) and weakness near resistance (1.1230) reinforce this range. Use this structure to your advantage: Long near 1.1170–1.1185, backed by EMA ribbon support and RSI recovery from oversold levels. Short near 1.1225–1.1235, where RSI typically overextends and price stalls on weak volume. Use tight stops (5–10 pips) and take profits near range edges. If price breaks and holds above 1.1235, target 1.1265–1.1300 on a bullish continuation. Below 1.1170, expect deeper downside toward 1.1120. Stick with the range until a breakout is confirmed by volume and candle closes.
by BlackCandleTrader
HelenP. I Euro may reach resistance level and break itHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. Observing this chart, we can see how the price appears to be finding stability just above the trend line support. This zone also aligns closely with the local swing low formed after the rejection from the resistance area near 1.1270. Buyers managed to defend this key trend structure, forming a potential higher low setup within the broader bullish framework. The price is now trading below a significant resistance cluster, where both horizontal and supply pressure meet, the 1.1270 to 1.1315 zone. However, the fact that EUR is respecting the rising trend line and hasn't broken below the previous local low suggests that bullish momentum may still be intact. A corrective dip into the trend line could offer the final shakeout before a new leg upward begins. If price manages to build strength around this support and push back toward the resistance zone, a breakout becomes increasingly likely. In such a case, the market may extend toward the 1.1400 area, which I consider my current target. Given the sustained higher lows, trend support, and structure of accumulation forming below resistance, I expect EURUSD to continue pushing upward after this retest phase. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️ Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Long
by FirstNameHelen
EURUSD May 15 Trade Executed EURUSD May 15 Trade Executed Trade Logic Bias for Asia/London hunting for a buy day to equal highs/retracement of NY delivery *sell side liquidity taken closing NY *deep discount for ET *small consolidation before reversing creating equal highs coming into Asia *Asia expands to buy side up into FVG target and consolidates *cross referenced heavily on DXY and GBP for confirmation on directional bias NOTE:To be honest I traded the Asia expansion trade. I am back testing and instead of trusting my full idea I got scared out due to a consolidation cycle. I did not give up and came back for London to analyze my buy day idea. Elements of Model 2022 *Fake swing at 1 *minor liquidity taken *1:24 4 candle formation *1:36 swing high candle *1:45 candle lowers to a 20:24 first presented FVG candle *1:54 energetic displacement to the up side/swing high broken 2:03 entered 2:57 exited with my TP being activated It was a long day to get this trade. Analysis at 5 am and learning how my pre market brain is the clearest. If I can learn to trust and enter with no fear. I suspected that the 2 Macro would be a fake run to stops when the liquidity was taken at 3 my mental capital was done. Key liquidity is a high probability trade set up, this is not greed speaking it me celebrating my morning analysis delivering. I am working on Asia to London trades. Very happy very pleased with price action.
by LeanLena