USDEUX trade ideas
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 2 - 6 JuneMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: BoC & ECB Rates, Canada and US Job Data & Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
— BoC’s Interest Rate Decision
— ECB’s Interest Rate Decision
— Unemployment Rate in Canada
— NFP and Unemployment Rate in the US
— Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Are the Bulls Ready Yet?On the higher timeframes of the weekly, daily, and 4-hour charts, we can see that the market is bullish. The same bullishness is imminent on the 1-hour chart.
On the 1-hour chart, the trend is bullish. We see that the market is currently retracing bearish inside the bullish swing. We have 2 possible options here:
Scenario A:
We look to see a bullish reversal, which will indicate the end of the retracement and the commencement of an extension for higher prices. Where this happens, we will be targeting prices above the 1.15000 level.
We are already seeing near signs of bullishness as the current hour candle is bullish. If this bullishness holds to give us a bullish candle that engulfs the previous bearish candle(s), then we will commence our trade plan, using the Panzy Pips Bullish trade entry setup
In the event that we do not have scenario A play out, then we will look to scenario B
Scenario B:
Price is expected to continue the bearish retracement all the way down to our marked-out PB (PanzyPips Block), which has been refined to a tiny little area. Where that happens, we will look to see signs of a bullish reversal within our zone.
The moment price is in our zone and the reversal signs are clear, price will be said to be in a bullish extension, and we will expect to see price begin to rally all the way from that zone to our extension targets of regions above 1.150.
There is a second side to Scenario B, though. Let's call it scenario C.
Scenario C:
Prices can go all the way to our zone and not give us the expected bullish reversal. Instead of giving the reversal, price can take out our zone. (This is the least unlikely of the 3 scenarios, though.)
Where this happens, that is to say that price goes into our zone and fails to give us the needed reversal, we do NOTHING. If we do not see signs of a bullish reversal, as in Scenario B, we stay on the sidelines and wait.
NOTE: It is only when price gives us that reversal that we bring forth our PanzyPips Traders Checklist and look to catch the bullish move all the way to our expected target of above 1.15000.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1367
1st Support: 1.1278
1st Resistance: 1.1475
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EUR/USD – Bearish OutlookThe market showed its hand.
After weeks of climbing, EUR/USD pierced into the 1.14500–1.15000 battlefield, a zone defended by historical resistance and heavy liquidity. Like a sword through fog, it grabbed the stops – and reversed with fury. A textbook liquidity sweep.
On the daily timeframe, the signs are clear: a rejection candle forged in volatility and imbalance. On the weekly, a long upper wick whispers the truth – bulls were ambushed, and now the pullback begins.
🔥 My Path Is Written:
Retest complete.
Liquidity taken.
Now, the descent begins.
Targets:
1.1220 – 1.1050: First support fortress.
If broken, deeper raids toward 1.0940 and below.
Fundamentals align:
The ECB weakens its stance, while the Fed waits in silence, watching the data. NFP is today – and should it favor the dollar, the fire will be lit.
⚔️ Strategy:
I stand with the bears.
I do not chase – I prepare. I strike with patience and precision.
Let the weak follow price.
Let the strong follow purpose.
📉 EUR/USD – Bearish until proven otherwise.
The range of 1.12-1.14 becomes an "arena"!The EUR/USD exhibited a narrow trading range on the last trading day of this week, with market focus in the evening centered on the upcoming release of the U.S. April core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, one of the Federal Reserve's most closely watched inflation indicators. Recently, the U.S. dollar has remained strong amid the Fed's hawkish stance and risk aversion triggered by tariff rhetoric, while the euro has shown some resilience but lacks a clear direction amid a mix of fundamental and technical factors.
Looking ahead, the trajectory of EUR/USD will largely depend on the upcoming U.S. core PCE data and market repricing of Fed policy. If the PCE data meets expectations (month-on-month 0.1%, year-on-year 2.5%), the euro is likely to continue oscillating within the range of 1.1270 to 1.1435, with limited short-term potential to break above the upper Bollinger Band at 1.1435. If the data surprises on the upside, the U.S. dollar could strengthen further, and the euro may test support levels at 1.1200 or even 1.1108. Conversely, if the data is weak, market expectations for a July rate cut by the Fed may intensify, and the euro could challenge resistance at 1.1400 and higher levels.
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EURUSD Bull Flag and 1week Golden Cross pushing it higher.EURUSD is on a Bull Flag pattern and just completed a 1week Golden Cross.
The structure is identical to the last 1week Golden Cross on January 11th 2021, which was also formed at the end of a Bull Flag pattern.
That formation pushed the pair higher to complete a 2.0 Fibonacci extension Top.
Buy and target 1.1800.
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EURUSD H4 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward buy entry level at 1.1367, a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 1.1482, a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
The stop loss is placed at 1.1286, a pullback support.
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EUR/USD Analysis – June 3rdEUR/USD Analysis – June 3rd
The current price is around 1.1430.
In my opinion , the pair is showing signs of a potential downward move, with a first target at approximately 1.1390.
If the bearish momentum continues, a further decline toward 1.1360 could follow.
This reflects a short bias for today’s trading setup.
Stop lose: I recommend using a trailing stop-loss of 14 pips to manage risk and protect profits during the move.
Disclaimer:
This analysis represents my personal view and is shared for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Please do your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
ECB Cuts Rates. EUR/USD Spikes to 1.5-Month HighECB Cuts Rates. EUR/USD Spikes to 1.5-Month High
Yesterday, as widely expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the eighth time since May 2024. According to ForexFactory, the main refinancing rate was lowered from 2.40% to 2.15% (having stood at 4.50% in May 2024).
According to Reuters:
→ ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that interest rates are now at a “good level”, despite the extremely high uncertainty caused by tariff threats from President Donald Trump.
→ Following the press conference, markets interpreted the message as a sign that the ECB is unlikely to cut rates again at its next meeting in July.
In response to the ECB's decision, the EUR/USD rate jumped to its highest level in a month and a half, but later retreated (as indicated by the arrow) back to previous levels.
Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart
Four days ago, while analysing the EUR/USD chart, we:
→ drew an ascending channel;
→ suggested that bullish momentum could push the EUR/USD rate up to the psychological level of 1.1500 during the current week.
In fact, at yesterday’s peak, the rate came very close to 1.1500. However, a candlestick with a long upper shadow had formed on the EUR/USD chart, by the end of the day. Additionally, this morning, the 1.1450 level has acted as a resistance zone.
This suggests bearish activity, which could pull the rate down towards the lower boundary of the local channel (outlined in black), and possibly even attempt a breakout below it.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Potential Short Setup Within a Bullish Context
It seems that EURUSD has formed nested setups, indicating potential short-term bearish movement. Signs point to a possible short setup targeting the 4H order block. However, since this move would go against the prevailing higher-timeframe trend, the probability of it playing out might be lower.
🔍 My Trading Approach:
My trading approach is built around price imbalances and liquidity. I focus on aligning entries with session timings, identifying daily bias and key liquidity levels, and using tools like FVGs for precise execution.
🎯 Profit-Taking Rule:
I usually secure profits once price has moved at least 1.5× the stop-loss distance in my favor
EURUSD Forms Rising Wedge + Evening Star_ Bearish SetupAs I expected in the previous idea , the EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) started to rise after breaking the upper line of the descending channel and hit the Long Position target with Risk-To-Reward: 1.46 .
The EURUSD is trading near the Resistance zone($1.149-$1.142) .
From a Classic Technical perspective, EURUSD appears to be completing a Rising Wedge Reversal Pattern . Also, a good sign for a EURUSD reversal is the formation of an Evening Star Candlestick Pattern near the upper line of the rising wedge pattern.
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , I think the EURUSD corrective waves are NOT over yet, and it seems that EURUSD has completed the main wave X inside the rising wedge pattern.
I expect EURUSD to decline to at least $1.126 AFTER breaking the lower line of the wedge pattern.
Note: If EURUSD touches $1.14903 , we can expect more pump.
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Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour time frame.
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DeGRAM | EURUSD fixed above the resistance line📊 Technical Analysis
● Price has broken the H1 descending-channel roof and twice “fixed” above it at ≈1.137, turning the former ceiling into short-term support.
● The rebound forms an ascending triangle under 1.142; its measured swing targets 1.156 – 1.160, where the violet long-term resistance line and mid-channel parallel converge.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Markets expect the ECB to cut only 25 bp on 6 Jun and signal patience, while soft US JOLTS openings and slipping ISM-prices lifted September Fed-cut odds past 60 %, narrowing the 2-yr yield gap and underpinning EUR.
✨ Summary
Buy 1.135-1.137; triangle break >1.142 seeks 1.156 → 1.160. Long view void on an H1 close below 1.126.
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EUR/USD Short IdeaEUR/USD Short Idea [ /b]
ING sees EUR expensive near 1.145 with likely drift toward 1.13; ECB rate‑cut expectations and firm US data cap upside.
Softer euro-area CPI and tomorrow’s ECB meeting keep rate-cut
expectations alive, capping EUR/USD rallies.
Lingering tariff tension, diverging central-bank paths and
well-defined chart levels combine to drive the current high-conviction plays:
euro softness after a below-target CPI print and Thursday’s looming ECB rate
cut meet still-solid U-S data, making EUR/USD ripe for a fade from 1.14.
eurusd to the moonnothing is really indicating that eurusd will go down. the news tomorrow would throw it down but thats too much time. its likely that eurusd will return to the previous resistance of 1.14500 as it turns the current area its at from resistance to support. the news will determine if eurusd pushes 1.14500 or gets rejected. please follow because im trying to get popularity points
EURUSD Sell SetupEURUSD – Institutional Short Setup 🔻
Timeframe: 1H
Date: June 3, 2025
Strategy: OdinVerse HP – Bank Entry Trap + Supply Stack Breakdown
🧠 Smart Money Logic
🔍 Key Zone Details
🔴 Upper Bank Sell Entry (1.14539 – 1.14337) Final liquidity sweep into major HTF supply – fakeout push before drop.
🔴 Lower Bank Sell Entry (1.14210 – 1.14127) True institutional entry zone. Price retested this zone before rejection.
🔻 Current Reaction Zone Price is rejecting the lower zone with bearish follow-through and structure shift.
🔑 Key Confluences
Fakeout Above Trendline → Trap breakouts at the top of rising wedge.
Double Bank Sell Zones → Clear signs of institutional order stacking.
Market Structure Shift → Clean BOS (break of structure) after retest of lower zone.
Mitigation Complete → Last bullish OB fully mitigated, turning supply active.
Daily EQM Sweep → Targeting imbalance & unfilled FVGs below (1.1285 to 1.1200).
🎯 Targets
🎯 TP Levels Zone/Logic
1.13884 Prior demand base / FVG top
1.12854 Major imbalance completion
1.12545 – 1.1200 Liquidity grab + OB tap zone
⚔️ Execution Plan
In Position? Hold – structure confirms clean sell trap.
Missed Entry? Wait for M5–M15 OB retest or mitigation around 1.1415.
Reversal Risk? Only invalid if 1.1454 breaks with close above.
🔥 OdinVerse Grade: A+ Setup
✔ HTF Supply Confluence
✔ Dual Bank Entry Zones
✔ Structure Shift
✔ Clean Downside Liquidity Targets
DeGRAM | EURUSD broke the downward channel📊 Technical Analysis
● Price broke the H4 descending channel roof and reclaimed 1.130 support; the breakout is holding above the long-term blue trend-line, creating a fresh higher-low cluster.
● Momentum is compressing in a bull flag between 1.1420 resistance and 1.1330 support; flag depth projects to 1.1565-1.1600 near the violet channel cap.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Flash EZ CPI jumped to 2.6 % y/y vs 2.5 % est. while US ISM mfg. slid to 48.1, trimming Treasury yields and widening EUR-USD rate appeal.
✨ Summary
Long 1.133-1.136; flag break >1.142 targets 1.156 → 1.160. Trend risk flips on a close below 1.126.
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EUR/USD – Bullish Scenario BuildingPrice has pulled back into a potential demand zone after an extended bullish impulse and is now reacting near a structural support level. This corrective move appears healthy within the broader uptrend structure, and current price action suggests buyers may be stepping back in.
RSI on the 30-minute chart is approaching oversold conditions, currently hovering near 30, which adds momentum confluence to this potential bounce setup. The pair is also forming a possible higher low, which aligns with bullish continuation patterns.
The reaction from this level will be critical — if buyers defend it, we may see a renewed push toward previous highs and continuation of the larger trend.
This setup is driven by structure, momentum context, and the expectation of trend continuation following a controlled pullback.
Patience is key as we watch for confirmation and strong candle formations that align with this thesis.
EURUSD – The bearish threat is becoming increasingly clearRecently released PMI data shows that the U.S. manufacturing sector is rebounding. This dampens expectations of monetary easing from the Fed. With a stronger U.S. dollar and rising bond yields, USD-denominated assets like EURUSD are facing downward pressure.
On the daily chart, EURUSD is approaching the resistance zone at 1.16438 – an area that has rejected prices before. The recent rebound appears to be losing strength, and the ascending trendline is at risk of breaking.
If the price fails to hold above this trendline as illustrated, a breakout to the downside could drive the market toward the 1.10757 zone – which aligns with a previous strong support level.
In summary: be cautious of a potential trend break. If a pattern of lower highs continues, sellers may soon take control.