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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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ECB rate announcement in focusthe European Central Bank (ECB) will be in focus today at 12:15 pm GMT and is anticipated to reduce rates amid recent CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) softening by more-than-expected in May to 1.9% at the headline year-on-year (YY) level from 2.2% in April. YY core inflation – a measure that excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices – also softened to 2.3% in May from 2.7% in April. I believe the last thing the ECB wants to do is shock the markets today, so I would be very surprised if they maintained rates at current levels. The decision, however, will be far from unanimous, with divisions among the 26 members who make up the ECB’s decision-making body. Markets expect the central bank to reduce all three benchmark rates by 25 bps, which would lower the deposit facility rate to 2.00% and the refinancing rate to 2.15%. If the ECB proceeds with another rate cut, this would mark the eighth reduction since the central bank commenced its easing cycle in mid-2024. With a rate cut already baked in, I think the question top of mind among investors is what comes next. The ECB will likely want to signal a pause following today's cut, albeit a ‘dovish pause’. In the ECB’s macroeconomic projections, analysts are also expecting notable downward revisions to inflation and growth. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how they convey this via language in their rate statement and in ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference. However, I find it very unlikely that forward guidance will provide a clear path, and the central bank is likely to remain in a data-dependent mode. While a dovish cut from the ECB could send the EUR/USD southbound today, I expect it to be short-lived if US employment data comes in lower than expected on Friday. Despite a temporary push lower potentially unfolding in the pair today, I remain bullish EUR/USD. As shown on the chart, the pair is shaking hands with monthly resistance from US$1.1457. Those who regularly follow my research will know that I am not enthusiastic about this level, given the inability of price to push through monthly support at US$1.1134 in May. Should follow-through buying emerge and US$1.1457 bids are consumed, I will be watching monthly resistance as far north as US$1.2028-US$1.1930. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Long
by FPMarkets
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.1471 1st Support: 1.1376 1st Resistance: 1.1573 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
EURUSD Trade Executed June 2 EURUSD Trade Executed June 2 4 hour chart logic Last week Price takes sell side Wednesday. Thursday expands to the buy side stepping up from the 70 OTE. Friday was retracement to the 50 level. When price bounced off the 50 in the NY sliver bullet I suspected that we could see higher prices coming into Monday. Minute chart logic 20:00 Asia expands immediately into a FVG and minor buy side. Admittedly I took a bad short thinking it was going to the equal lows. *cross referenced DXY after evaluation of the higher time frame range that it would drop to its equal lows, while GBP would also rally to the equal highs Hunting for an expansion signal 23:20 creates a swing high 23:30 Price swing low and comes back to its opening price of Asia right into a first presented FVG *Price creates a tiny FVG *23:55 taps the FVG and takes off *price goes into a small consolidation *1:00 price takes off *1:10 I wanted to enter but froze waited for the next macro 1:50 entered 3:25 exited target of equal highs hit I really relied on the higher time range that price would seek last Monday’s high to complete the range and for DXY to make its low. I can see it so clearly on the 1 hour and 4 hour charts price narrative and why ICT coaches to manage bias from here. Hindsight I am desiring to trade the days range and sticking to my bias with understanding the what cycle price is in. EX Friday closes in a consolidation cycle expansion is next. Asia expansion for the win. To be honest this trade feels like chasing price. Probably cause it is! To study it feels better than the pips in my account. *Price was in a premium-rule broken in taken this trade-but narrative was there *Analysis was built from 4 hour which I m getting used to trusting-narrative was buy side was the target after taking sell side last week *I expected a pull back from Sundays delivery, did not happen, barely made it to the 50 previous range *Price pulling back to the 50 on Friday was key to a expansion buy today 4 hour chart is king is todays take away!
Long
by LeanLena
EURUSD H1 | Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H1 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.1284, a pullback support that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit is set at 1.1367, a pullback resistance. The stop loss is placed at 1.1229, a multi swing low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
The surge in the euro was expected 💡Message Strategy Since the beginning of this trading week, a number of economic data released by the United States have been weak. Following the decline in the manufacturing PMI, the ISM service PMI for May released on Wednesday fell to 49.9, the first contraction in nearly a year. In addition, the ADP employment data was also far below expectations, with only 37,000 new jobs, far below the expected 115,000, which strengthened the market's concerns about the risk of a US recession, thereby dragging down the US dollar. At the same time, risk aversion and uncertainty in the United States have not improved significantly, and trade tensions, debt prospects and weak US bond yields have put pressure on the US dollar. Obviously, in the game between eurozone monetary policy and US economic data, the euro wins. 📊Technical aspects From the daily chart, the exchange rate has maintained a strong oscillation pattern since mid-April, and has generally been running between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands. The upper track of the Bollinger Bands is currently at 1.1471, and the lower track is at 1.1118. The Bollinger Bands are slightly open, indicating a rebound in volatility. The MACD indicator shows that the double lines form a golden cross, and the bar chart turns from green to red, suggesting that the downward momentum is weakening; the RSI indicator remains near 57, slightly in the neutral to bullish area, and has not yet reached the overbought level. The overall technical pattern tends to fluctuate upward. If it breaks through the 1.1500 area, it will continue to rise. At present, the main idea is still to do more on the callback, and do not blindly chase the short. Long Position: 1.14450-1.14650
Long
by TheodoreSilas
1
EURUSD: Twin Channel Up structure aims for 1.14950.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.016, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 22.852) as it maintains a bullish structure consisting of successive Channel Up patterns. We are currently on the 2nd, with the price supported by both the 30m MA50 and MA200. The 1st Channel Up peaked after a +1.29% rise. We remain bullish, aiming for a similar rise, TP = 1.14950. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
EURUSD - OPPORTUNITY HAS ARRIVEDTeam, I hardly trade EURUSD but the last time, we went long EURUSD when it was 1.03-1.04 - properly 2 months ago. Now we decide to short, please follow the strategy given out in the chart. Today, we have successfully hit target on SHORTING GOLD, you can check it yourself yesterday post. We do LIVE trading SHORT UK hit both target, Yesterday we went LONG USDCHF- you can check my post, target hit today as well. and 15 minutes ago, we do LIVE trading and our soft target for EURUSD hit again.\ Now, we are reshort the EURUSD, please make sure follow the chart accordingly. Once it hits the 1st target, bring stop loss to BE. REMEMBER always care about how much you are taking the risk on each of your trade.
Short
by ActiveTraderRoom
EUR/USD Market Analysis: Inflation Drop Spurs ECB Rate Cut ExpecTechnical Analysis On the 1-hour chart, EUR/USD is trading near 1.1408, showing a corrective pullback after recent gains. The pair breached a rising trendline support around 1.1411 and is approaching key Fibonacci retracement levels derived from the recent swing low to high. Immediate support lies at the 100% Fibonacci level near 1.1368, with further downside targets at the 127.2% extension at 1.1399 and the 161.8% extension at 1.1385. The 61.8% retracement at 1.1427 now acts as a resistance barrier. Otherwise, buyers have to reclaim the 1.14276 hurdle to alter the downward movement. Conclusion EUR/USD remains in a phase of consolidation shaped by diverging central bank policies and fresh inflation signals. The softer Eurozone inflation grants the ECB room to ease, which weighs on the euro, while the U.S. dollar finds support amid stable economic data and hawkish Fed outlooks. Traders should monitor the ECB meeting closely for guidance cues and watch technical levels at 1.1368 support and 1.1427 resistance for potential directional confirmation. The interplay of these fundamental and technical factors will define the pair’s trajectory in the coming sessions.
Short
by Errante