GBP/USD Under Bearish Pressure – Key Levels to WatchThe GBP/USD pair is currently facing sustained bearish pressure as market sentiment shifts in favor of the US dollar. After a period of consolidation, sellers have regained control, pushing the pair lower and challenging recent support zones.
This move reflects broader macroeconomic dynamics, including renewed demand for safe-haven assets and cautious risk sentiment across global markets. The pound’s weakness is further amplified by concerns over the UK’s economic outlook, including sluggish growth prospects and fiscal uncertainty.
From a price action perspective, the pair has broken below a key structural level, confirming bearish momentum. The recent lower highs and lower lows suggest that sellers are firmly in control, and any short-term retracements may be viewed as opportunities to rejoin the downtrend.
What to Watch:
Price reaction near recent swing lows for potential continuation
Any signs of exhaustion from buyers on intraday pullbacks
Volatility around upcoming economic releases that could fuel further downside
Traders should remain cautious and manage risk appropriately, especially with increased volatility during major sessions. The bearish narrative remains intact unless the pair reclaims significant resistance levels with strong conviction.
USDGBP trade ideas
GBP/USD Climbs as Trump Targets 14 NationsGBP/USD edged higher to around 1.3630 during Tuesday’s Asian session, posting a modest recovery after two straight days of losses. The British Pound found support as the US Dollar weakened in response to heightened market caution following President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariff rates targeting 14 countries that have not yet finalized trade agreements with the US.
The Trump administration introduced a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea, warning of further escalation if these countries retaliate. Other nations affected include Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and Tunisia, each facing a 25% tariff, while South Africa will face a 30% tariff. Tariffs on Laos and Myanmar will rise to 40%, Indonesia faces 32%, Bangladesh 35%, and both Thailand and Cambodia will see tariffs of 36%.
Additionally, Trump signed an executive order delaying the enforcement of these new tariffs until August 1, allowing more time for negotiations, according to Bloomberg.
On social media, Trump issued a firm warning that any country aligning with the anti-American stance of the BRICS bloc would face an extra 10% tariff, stating unequivocally: “There will be no exceptions to this policy.”
Resistance is at 1.3640, while support holds at 1.3500.
GBP/USD – Bearish Shift Confirmed | Structure Breakout + AO DiveThe market just gave us a textbook setup on GBP/USD!
🔍 Analysis Overview:
A clear bearish divergence has formed between price and the AO (Awesome Oscillator), signaling potential trend exhaustion at the top.
We saw a rising wedge break to the downside, with a structure breakout confirming a shift in momentum.
Price decisively broke below the 1.36109 support level, indicating bearish control.
📊 Technical Confluence:
AO shows bearish divergence, confirming weakening bullish momentum.
Structure breakout from the wedge pattern aligns with AO signals.
Fibonacci retracement and extension levels give a clear target zone:
🎯 TP1 area: 1.35805 – 1.35895 (Fib 1.618–1.786 extensions)
⏳ What I'm Watching:
I'm now waiting for a pullback to retest the broken structure (possibly around the 0.382–0.618 Fib levels: 1.36242–1.36323). A bearish reaction here could provide a high-probability reentry opportunity.
💡Trade Idea Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Signal: Divergence + Structure Break
TP Zone: 1.35805 – 1.35895
Watch for: Pullback to retest broken structure before continuation
📈 Stay alert and manage your risk wisely!
GBPUSD H1 I Bearish Drop Based on the H1chart analysis, we can see that the price is testing our sell entry at 1.3634 which is an overlap resistance.
Our take profit will be at 1.3533, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.3684, an overlap resistance.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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Pound Holds Gains on UK Fiscal StabilityGBP/USD held around 1.3660 during Friday’s Asian session, marking a second day of consolidation as the dollar weakened on caution over Trump’s planned tariffs. Trump said he would start sending tariff letters Friday, targeting ten countries with rates of 20–30%. The pound was supported after PM Starmer backed Chancellor Reeves, easing market concerns over a possible replacement with looser fiscal policies.
The BoE is expected to cut rates in August, likely to 4%, following dovish signals from officials, including Governor Bailey, who said rates should gradually decline as inflation eases.
Resistance is at 1.3700, while support holds at 1.3600.
GBP/USD Analysis: Short Opportunity Amid Bearish Sentiment Current Price: $1.36282
Direction: SHORT
Targets:
- T1 = $1.3550
- T2 = $1.3485
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $1.3660
- S2 = $1.3723
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in GBPUSD.
**Key Insights:**
Bearish sentiment dominates GBP/USD amid declining momentum and weak macroeconomic indicators. Recent price action highlights sellers' control over the market, with structural patterns backing further downside potential. Risk-averse behavior is amplifying the US Dollar's recent recovery, contributing to weakness in GBP/USD. The currency pair faces prominent support levels, which, if broken, could accelerate selling pressure.
Both the technical and fundamental setups are consistent with a bearish view in the short term. The current bearish flag pattern aligns with broader expectations for dollar strength and UK economic soft patches, increasing the likelihood of downward movement. Confirmation signals should be awaited before active trades.
**Recent Performance:**
GBP/USD recently struggled to sustain bullish momentum after encountering strong resistance at $1.3723. A subsequent retracement to $1.3553 underscores persistent selling pressure. The pair’s inability to establish higher highs further supports the bearish outlook. Despite minor rebounds, GBP/USD has remained trapped in a descending pattern over the past two weeks.
**Expert Analysis:**
Market analysts have largely aligned on a bearish stance for GBP/USD due to ongoing monetary policy divergence between the UK and the US, coupled with weak UK macroeconomic developments. Several key technical indicators, including MACD and RSI, reflect bearish conditions, while chart patterns point to sustained weakness. Additionally, resistance levels near $1.3660 serve as critical areas where sellers can re-enter positions, further targeting new lows.
**News Impact:**
News surrounding the US Dollar Index signals bullishness for USD amid safe-haven flows, reinforcing the bearish outlook for GBP/USD. Moreover, the UK's upcoming GDP data release later this week could serve as a major catalyst, particularly if the data fails to meet expectations. Weak UK data could cement the bearish trend and accelerate downward price movement, while positive surprises could mitigate losses and prompt short-term rebounds.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Based on market sentiment, technical setups, and fundamental drivers, traders should consider short positions in GBP/USD. Key stop-loss levels are placed above short-term resistance zones to safeguard against sudden reversals, while price targets aim to capitalize on further weakening amid bearish macroeconomic conditions. Vigilance around news releases and confirmation signals is advised to refine risk management strategies.
GBPUSD H4 I Bearish Reversal Off Based on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 1.3691, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 1.3532, a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fib retracement.
The stop loss is set at 1.3790, a swing high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
GU| - Bullish Ride in Motion | Key Zone Hold into New WeekPair: GBPUSD
Bias: Bullish
Timeframes: 4H, 2H, 30M
• 4H showing strong bullish momentum — price pushed aggressively, and we caught the move. Heading into next week, the bullish continuation is still valid unless price tells us otherwise.
• 30M gave a sweep from a refined OB zone — circled area shows the key move. Watching closely to see if bulls truly hold that ground.
• 2H gives a clear picture of structure — smooth directional flow confirming the bias.
🔹 Entry: After break of micro LH for confirmation
🔹 Entry Zone: Will be found within price flow — post-shift
🔹 Target: Structure highs — same continuation goal if bulls follow through
Mindset: No chasing. We wait, let price do the heavy lifting. Our job is to react with clarity, not emotion.
Bless Trading!
GBPUSD 1.3600 support retestThe GBPUSD currency pair continues to exhibit a bullish price action bias, supported by a sustained rising trend. Recent intraday movement reflects a sideways consolidation breakout, suggesting potential continuation of the broader uptrend.
Key Technical Level: 1.3600
This level marks the prior consolidation range and now acts as pivotal support. A corrective pullback toward 1.3600 followed by a bullish rejection would reinforce the bullish trend, targeting the next resistance levels at:
1.3825 – Near-term resistance
1.3865 – Minor swing high
1.3900 – Longer-term bullish objective
On the other hand, a decisive daily close below 1.3600 would invalidate the bullish setup, shifting the outlook to bearish in the short term. This could trigger a deeper retracement toward:
1.3550 – Initial support
1.3500 – Key downside target
Conclusion:
As long as 1.3600 holds as support, the technical outlook remains bullish, favoring long positions on dips. A confirmed break below this level would signal a shift in sentiment and open the door to a corrective pullback phase.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead - US Employment, NFP in focus Thursday, July 3 – Market Focus
Key Economic Data:
US:
June Jobs Report – Crucial for gauging labor market momentum and Fed rate expectations.
ISM Services PMI (June) – Offers insight into the largest sector of the economy.
May Trade Balance, Factory Orders, Initial Jobless Claims – Together provide a fuller picture of external demand, industrial health, and labor market stress.
China:
Caixin Services PMI (June) – Reflects private sector service activity and post-pandemic demand strength.
UK:
June Official Reserve Changes – Could hint at FX intervention patterns or reserve rebalancing.
Italy:
Services PMI (June) – A regional gauge of Eurozone service sector strength.
Canada:
May International Merchandise Trade – Key for assessing external demand and commodity flow impact.
Switzerland:
June CPI – Critical for SNB policy outlook, especially post recent rate cut.
Central Bank Highlights:
ECB:
June Meeting Account – May provide clarity on the timing and pace of further policy normalization.
Fed:
Bostic Speaks – Watch for clues on his stance regarding rate cuts amid mixed data signals.
BoJ:
Takata Speaks – Important for any policy tone shift as the market eyes potential tightening.
BoE:
June Decision Maker Panel (DMP), Q2 Bank Liabilities & Credit Conditions Surveys – These offer insights into business inflation expectations and credit supply constraints, key for the BoE’s future policy path.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
GBP/USD Slides with Fiscal WorriesGBP/USD edged lower toward 1.3625 in Asian trading, pressured by a sharp selloff in UK government bonds and growing fiscal concerns.
Gilts suffered their biggest drop since October 2022 after the government’s decision to cut welfare benefits and mounting doubts over the Chancellor’s political future.
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC, noted: “The drop isn’t limited to the British Pound, UK gilts are also under heavy selling. It seems to be a broader crisis of confidence in the Labour government.”
Resistance is at 1.3675, while support holds at 1.3570.
GU-Thu-03/07/25 TDA-UK political turmoil triggers market selloffAnalysis done directly on the chart
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Market Flow Strategy
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