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U.S. Dollar / Pound Sterling

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Fundamental Market Analysis for April 22, 2025 GBPUSDGBPUSD: The GBP/USD pair is trading in positive territory around 1.3370 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Concerns over slowing growth in the United States (US) and worries over the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) are driving the US Dollar (USD) lower and creating a tailwind for the major pair. US President Donald Trump condemned Powell for continuing to maintain a “wait-and-see” monetary policy until there is clarity on how the new tariff policy will affect the economic outlook. In a Truth social media post, Trump warned that the US economy will slow down if Powell doesn't cut interest rates immediately. Heightened uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs and rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China are undermining the U.S. dollar across the board. On the other hand, softer UK consumer price index (CPI) inflation data for March and global uncertainty paved the way for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) at its May meeting. Financial markets are now betting on an interest rate cut at the Bank of England's May meeting, estimating an 86% probability of this happening, according to LSEG data. This, in turn, could affect the Pound Sterling (GBP) exchange rate against the US Dollar. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3425, SL 1.3395, TP 1.3510
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD London Session 📌 Timeframe:1H 📌 Bias: Bullish 📌 Key Levels: - Sell-side Liquidity Target: 1H SIBI at 1.33930 - Bullish Entry Zone: Consequent Encroachment of the imbalance - Final Target: 1.34300 Market Context & Analysis - Asian Session Recap: Price opened and traded higher, leaving behind a **1H SIBI**, which was later tapped into. - Liquidity Sweep: Price made a higher high before pulling back, now targeting sell-side liquidity at 1.33930. - Bullish Setup Plan: Expecting price to sweep the **sell-side liquidity**, tap into the Consequent Encroachment of the imbalance, and confirm bullish momentum. - Final Target: Anticipating a rally toward 1.34300, which aligns with a strong resistance level. Execution Strategy 1. Wait for Price Action Confirmation - Look for bullish rejection wicks or strong engulfing candles at the Consequent Encroachment zone. - Avoid early entries; wait for liquidity grab and clear directional shift. 2. Entry & Stop-Loss Considerations - Ideal Entry: Once bullish confirmations are observed post-liquidity sweep. - Stop-Loss: Below the recent **liquidity sweep low** to ensure risk protection. 3. Risk-to-Reward & Position Management - Aim for R:R ratio of at least 1:3, securing partial profits as price approaches 1.34300 - Monitor market conditions and adjust if necessary based on order flow dynamics.
Long
by Hos_Waruts
GBP/USD – Breakout Retest Setup🔍 Macro Fundamentals LEI improving → 86.8 → 90 Exo + LEI score = 78.5 → Healthy trend continuation bias Exogenous factors: April score 4.5 → positive skew USD macro weak & dovish, GBP maintaining hawkish tone 📅 Seasonality 📈 GBP bullish from April 24 onward 📉 USD bearish all month ✅ Perfect seasonality window for bullish GBP/USD swing 📊 COT Sentiment Both GBP and USD = ⚖️ Neutral → No positioning pressure, clean technical entry expected 📈 Technical Setup (4H Chart) Price has broken out of structure, now retesting resistance as support Structure forming above 1.32312, with a solid upside trend 🔁 Plan: Enter on breakout retest for trend continuation 📥 Entry: 1.32312 ⛔ Stop Loss: 1.31581 (below structure) 🎯 Take Profit: Trail or target based on 1.3550–1.3600 zone 🧮 R:R ≈ 1:2+
Long
by wajahatarif
GBP/USD bulls to mitigate @1.32500 handle as we start the month with trade wars which the cable possibly will not be part of, optimism has grown around a potential Ukraine peace plan reinforcing Britain’s support. Sterling also has gained strength from the expectations that UK interest rates will remain higher for longer. Bank of England Deputy Governor Ramsden highlighted that persistent wage pressures could keep inflation above target, though he noted future rate cuts may not be gradual. This outlook, combined with geopolitical developments, has boosted investor confidence in the pound and so am hoping for a retest to my fair value price @ 1.27000 handle before the bulls comes in and drives the price to my unmitigated zone 1st Tp @1.32500
Long
by que
GBP/USD Price Action Update – April 21, 2025📊GBP/USD Price Action Update – April 21, 2025 🔹Current Price: 1.33885 🔹Timeframe: 1H 📌Key Demand Zones (Support): 🟢1.32861–1.32921 – Recent Breaker Block Zone (ideal for bullish continuation) 🟢1.32026–1.32138 – Strong Demand Zone (clean rally base rally formation) 📌Key Supply Zone (Resistance): 🔴1.34128–1.34346 – High-Interest Supply Zone (expect reaction or reversal) 📈Bullish Outlook: Price has rallied strongly and is approaching the 1.34128–1.34346 supply zone. If we break through this level with momentum, expect further upside. In case of rejection, look for bullish re-entries at 1.32861–1.32921 or deeper into 1.32026–1.32138. 📉Bearish Outlook: If the supply zone at 1.34128–1.34346 holds, we may see a pullback toward the 1.32861 area. A break below that could lead to a deeper correction to 1.32026. Watch for bearish price action confirmation around the supply zone. ⚡Trade Setup Tip: ✅Wait for price reaction at the supply zone ✅Enter only after confirmation (e.g., BOS/CHoCH or engulfing) ✅Use tight stop-loss with proper RR #GBPUSD #ForexTrading #SmartMoneyConcepts #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand #BreakOfStructure #PoundAnalysis #ScalpingSetups #FXFOREVER #MarketUpdate #IntradayTrading
Long
by FXFOREVER_87
GBP/USD in terminal phase? This zone could flip everything!📊 Technical Analysis Price is currently trading in a strong weekly/monthly resistance zone around 1.3390–1.3400, marked by a dense multi-layer supply area. Historically, this level has caused sharp rejections. From the lows, price completed a steep bullish leg, breaking through several structures. However: Momentum seems overstretched. RSI shows potential overbought signals. There's a likely bearish target zone between 1.2950 and 1.2850, which is a key demand area. 📌 Trade Setup: I’m watching for exhaustion signals or bearish confirmations on H1 to short from the current resistance, targeting the grey and turquoise zones below 1.30. 🧾 COT Report – GBP Large Speculators (Asset Managers) still hold a net short position, although they've reduced exposure in recent months. Leverage Funds remain slightly long, but without strong conviction. 💵 COT Report – USD Leverage Funds have turned significantly net long on the dollar (strong green line upward since March). This supports a bearish view on GBP/USD, as USD strength returns. 📉 Summary: Price is at a key decision zone. A technical correction is possible. COT data supports this view: GBP remains weak on the institutional side. USD is regaining strength.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Do or die for gbpusd??I’m closely watching gbpusd once it reaches these highs I see no means for any trades .. keeping in mind it’s also a bank holiday for Europe I’d like to wait and see what happens at this 1.34319 point of reaction along with a demand zone . If I see a nice close on a daily candle or any bearish formation ( besides the weekly double top) I’d consider sells .. a break above that and the 1.35 psychological level , I’d like to believe the bulls are still in control .. nevertheless , this point seems to hold weight . We’ll just wait and see 😎
by JustVibe305
GBPUSD Happy Easter Traders! 4/20 6:33pm. I’m currently holding a sell position on GBP/USD at 1.32480, and despite price climbing to 1.32942, I see several technical and fundamental factors that support my trade idea. Fundamental Perspective Looking ahead, this week presents major economic events that could drive volatility in GBP/USD. UK PMI (April 23): Manufacturing PMI is expected to drop to 44.1, while Services PMI may soften to 51.0—both indicators suggest economic slowdown, potentially putting downward pressure on GBP. US Durable Goods (April 24): Forecasts show mixed numbers—headline durable goods is projected at +1.8%, but ex-transportation and ex-defense figures are negative, meaning uncertainty surrounding USD demand. UK Retail Sales (April 25): The monthly figure is expected at -0.3%, signaling weaker consumer spending. This aligns with my sell bias, as deteriorating UK economic conditions could contribute to pound weakness. If the UK data disappoints while US figures remain mixed or slightly stronger, GBP/USD could face renewed selling pressure, validating my position. Technical Analysis - Historical & Indicator Confirmation Looking at the daily chart, there’s strong alignment between price action and indicator readings that suggest a potential reversal: Resistance Holding at 1.330–1.331: The Stochastic at 74.88 suggests GBP/USD is nearing overbought conditions. The Williams %R at -22.24 reinforces the idea that price is pushing into exhaustion territory. Support Structure (Where Downside Pressure Could Build): Immediate Support at 1.326–1.327: Previous lows from April 20 confirm this zone as a critical level for sellers. Secondary Support at 1.321: Multiple recent price reactions suggest this area could serve as a strong downside target. Deeper Support at 1.316–1.318: If bearish momentum strengthens, this area represents a key swing low. Additionally, while price is pushing higher in the short term, it’s trading well above long-term daily EMAs, suggesting the rally is a temporary overextension rather than a sustained breakout. If GBP/USD fails to break above 1.330–1.331, momentum could shift in favor of my sell trade. Trade Management & Outlook Despite the recent push higher, I remain confident in my sell position as long as GBP/USD does not break and hold above 1.330–1.331. If price starts rejecting this level, the next downside target could be 1.326, followed by 1.321, where I’d consider taking partial profits. With fundamental catalysts ahead, volatility will likely increase. If bullish momentum persists beyond 1.331, I may need to re-evaluate my position, but until that happens, my trade setup remains valid. Final Thoughts My sell at 1.32480 is built on strong reasoning—key fundamental risks, extended technical levels, and a solid structure of resistance all favor a potential reversal. If sellers step in soon, I’ll have the opportunity to secure profits on a well-planned move. Now, it’s a waiting game to see how price reacts to resistance and upcoming data.
Short
by Sel_Ali
Weekly Analysis for GBP/USD Weekly Analysis for GBP/USD 🔍 Technical Outlook by Shaker Trading ✅ Reasons for the Bullish Outlook: Upward Price Channel (Weekly Chart): The pair is moving inside a strong ascending channel, confirming a longer-term bullish trend. Strong Bullish Momentum: Price action is showing clear bullish strength, with higher highs and higher lows. Fresh Demand Zones Identified: Multiple demand zones have formed, offering strong support areas for potential buy setups. 📌 Trading Idea: We expect a correction from current levels toward one of the nearby demand zones, followed by a bullish continuation. The area around 1.2700–1.2800 could offer ideal buy opportunities for swing traders aiming for higher targets. 🔥 Copy Trading for Free Join our Copy Trading system and follow top-performing strategies – absolutely free. No commissions, no subscriptions.
Long
by ShakerTrading
Anybody in for a reversal with me?Well, starting with the downtrend structure we had from the 1.34xx seems broken. Apparently, our beloved cable had to take all those early bulls out before it could go back reclaiming money it left at supply. There are multiple evidences why I think we should be buying GBPUSD. Amongst the most prominent ones, we have: 1- Price being protected (twice) at the demand area 2- BOE held the rates, it does not mean UK is doing great at other variables such as inflation, trade balance, debt, job market etc., it just means they plan to maintain the burden on businesses and public with relatively higher mark ups on public lending. It might be a double edged sword but that is pretty much how capitalist economies maintain and control their inflation rates. 3- Market has not claimed the liquidity at marked supply area ever since it started dropping, so this might be a good start 4- This one might not have matured just yet, but it is diverging bullish here This is my idea for adding small long positions starting Monday post intraday pullback, if you think I might be wrong, please let me know in the comments with proper reasoning. (saying because I need a reason to reconsider which I might be unable to see lol) Cheers!
Long
by Uzi-Trades-Forex
3