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U.S. Dollar / Pound Sterling

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GBP/USD: Selling into the reboundThe setup is similar in EUR/USD & GBP/USD - because of the dollar in both major pairs! The GBP price is testing the broken uptrend line on the weekly- and could break above it. On the daily chart, a downtrend line has already broken and so has critical resistance at 1.25, suggesting a break above the weekly uptrend line Should the breakout follow-through it faces resistance at 1.28 from the December high and 30 week (150 day) moving average. However, should the breakout fail - it sets up a likely continuation of the longer term downtrend.
Short
by jasperlawler
2
GBP/USD Longs from 1.25800 up to the 7hr supplyFor this week, I expect GBP/USD to retrace back to the clean, unmitigated 18-hour demand zone before pushing back up toward the 7-hour supply zone that I previously marked. If this move doesn’t play out as expected, I anticipate price will first mitigate the 7-hour supply zone before slowing down and distributing within my point of interest (POI). From there, I’ll be watching for a short move back to the 18-hour demand zone, where I plan to enter buys and continue trading in alignment with the overall market trend. Since price is currently near both POIs, I’ll be keeping a close eye on this setup. Confluences for GU Buys: ✅ Strong bullish trend with consistent breakouts to the upside. ✅ 18-hour demand zone remains unmitigated and was the origin of the last bullish move. ✅ 7-hour supply zone above that also needs to be mitigated. ✅ The Dollar Index (DXY) has been very bearish, further supporting GBP strength. Alternative Scenario: If price reacts strongly from the 7-hour supply zone and breaks below the 18-hour demand, I’ll shift my focus to my next buy zone around 1.25200. Wishing everyone a profitable trading week—let’s finish it in BLUES! 🔵
Long
by Hassan_fx
1
How Do Traders Spot and Use the Dragonfly Doji CandlestickHow Do Traders Spot and Use the Dragonfly Doji Candlestick Pattern? The dragonfly doji candlestick pattern holds intrigue and fascination for traders in financial markets. Its distinct shape and positioning on price charts make it a keen subject for observation and analysis. In this article, we will explore this setup, its significance, and how traders use it in their trading strategies. What Does a Dragonfly Doji Mean? The red or green dragonfly doji is a candlestick pattern that forms when the opening, closing, and high prices of an asset are equal or almost equal. This formation resembles the shape of a dragonfly because it has an extended lower shadow. It provides bullish signals and is considered a neutral pattern as it provides continuation and reversal signals, depending on its context within a trend. The meaning of a dragonfly doji is that there is uncertainty in the market, and traders are prompted to carefully analyse other factors before making trading decisions. Traders may find the dragonfly doji pattern on charts of different financial instruments, such as currencies, stocks, cryptocurrencies*, ETFs, and indices, regardless of the timeframe. Test this pattern on various assets with FXOpen’s TickTrader platform. The Psychology Behind the Dragonfly Doji The dragonfly doji candle pattern reflects a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, where neither side gains a decisive advantage. Its formation indicates that sellers initially push prices lower, but buyers step in to push prices back up to the opening level. This results in the distinct long lower shadow and minimal upper shadow. The psychological meaning of the dragonfly candlestick pattern is significant; it shows that despite bearish pressure, buyers are strong enough to regain control by the close. It signals indecision, highlighting the need for traders to carefully evaluate other indicators and the broader trend before making trading decisions. How Can You Trade the Dragonfly Doji? The bullish dragonfly doji provides valuable information about market sentiment. Here are two scenarios where this formation can be significant: The Dragonfly Doji in an Uptrend In a bullish trend, the dragonfly doji is generally seen as a continuation signal. This is because, despite sellers attempting to push the price lower, buyers remain active and prevent a significant decline. However, it is worth noting that the inability of buyers to push the price above its open level may indicate a potential weakening of bullish momentum. Traders may consider entering the trade above the open/close of the doji’s candle or if the proceeding bar closes above the doji’s open/close. The stop-loss level may be placed below the candlesticks, while the take-profit target may be set at the nearest resistance level. In the chart above, the pattern formed in an uptrend, and the trader placed a long trade on the next bar. The stop loss was set below the candle, with the take profit at the closest resistance level. Dragonfly Doji in a Downtrend The dragonfly doji in bearish trends may suggest a possible upward reversal. The long lower shadow indicates that buyers entered the market, pushing the price up from its lows. This could be seen as a signal to consider going long or watching for a further bullish confirmation before taking action. Traders may place a stop loss below the candle with a take profit at the closest resistance level or may consider the appropriate risk/reward ratio. The candle at the end of a downtrend signals a price reversal. The trader placed a buy order at the high of the doji with a stop-loss level below it. The take profit is calculated based on the risk/reward ratio. Traders can enhance their trading strategies by utilising the free TickTrader trading platform. How Can You Confirm the Dragonfly Doji? Confirming the dragonfly doji may increase the reliability of trading decisions. Here are key factors to consider: - Volume Analysis: High trading volume during the formation of a dragonfly candle may indicate stronger market sentiment and increase the likelihood of a significant move. - Subsequent Candlesticks: Traders look for a bullish candlestick following the dragonfly candlestick. This reinforces the potential for a trend reversal or continuation. - Support and Resistance Levels: A formation occurring near significant support levels can strengthen its validity as a potential reversal signal. - Technical Indicators: To gauge momentum and confirm signals, traders often complement the analysis with indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), moving averages, and Bollinger Bands. - Market Context: It’s best to evaluate the broader market trend and news that may impact market sentiment to provide a clearer picture of its implications. Dragonfly and Other Patterns Dragonfly doji, gravestone doji, spinning top, and long-legged doji are all types of candlestick patterns commonly used in technical analysis to indicate potential reversals or indecision in the market. Traders often pay close attention to them when making trading decisions. Dragonfly Doji vs Gravestone Doji While the dragonfly doji has a long lower shadow and little or non-existent upper one, the gravestone or inverted dragonfly doji has a long upper wick and little or non-existent lower one. Both patterns indicate indecision, but the dragonfly provides bullish signals, whereas the gravestone indicates potential bearish reversals. Dragonfly Doji vs Long-Legged Doji The dragonfly has a long lower shadow with little to no upper shadow, indicating a potential bullish reversal. In contrast, the long-legged version has long upper and lower shadows, reflecting significant indecision and equal pressure from buyers and sellers without a clear directional bias. Dragonfly Doji vs Hammer The dragonfly and the hammer both signal potential bullish reversals, but they differ in appearance and context. The dragonfly has no upper shadow, but it has a very small body and an extended lower shadow, while the hammer has a body at the top of the candlestick and a long lower shadow. The hammer typically appears after a downtrend, signalling a reversal, while the dragonfly doji appears in uptrends and downtrends. Limitations of the Dragonfly Doji While the dragonfly doji is a valuable candlestick formation for traders, it is not without its limitations. Recognising these constraints can help them understand how to use it most effectively. - False Signals: The dragonfly sometimes produces false signals, leading traders to anticipate reversals that do not materialise. - Market Context: Its effectiveness is heavily influenced by the broader market context. It may not be reliable in all situations, particularly in choppy or sideways assets. - Confirmation Needed: Additional indicators or subsequent price action are usually required to confirm the pattern, as relying solely on its appearance can be risky. - Limited Power: It does not provide information on the magnitude of the subsequent price movement, making it challenging to set precise profit targets. Closing Thoughts Candlestick patterns should not be relied upon as the sole factor in trading decisions. It is essential to perform a comprehensive analysis and implement robust risk management strategies before making any trades. Once you are confident in your analysis, consider opening an FXOpen account to take advantage of spreads as tight as 0.0 pips and commissions starting at just $1.50. FAQ What Does Doji Candle Mean? A doji candle represents a session where the opening and closing prices are almost equal, indicating market indecision. It suggests neither buyers nor sellers are in control, resulting in a standoff. Doji candles can take various forms, including dragonfly, gravestone, and long-legged, each with unique implications. What Does a Dragonfly Doji Indicate? A dragonfly doji indicates indecision and potential trend reversal. It forms when the open, high, and close prices are near the same level but it has a long lower shadow. This formation suggests buyers counteracted initial selling pressure, signalling a possible bullish shift. Is the Dragonfly Doji Bullish or Bearish? The dragonfly is generally considered bullish, especially after a downtrend. Its formation indicates buyers pushed prices back to the opening level, potentially leading to a price increase. What Is the Opposite of the Dragonfly Doji? The opposite of the dragonfly doji is the gravestone doji. The dragonfly has a long lower shadow and little to no upper shadow, while the gravestone features a long upper shadow and minimal lower shadow, indicating a potential bearish reversal. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
GBPUSD: Poised for Another Rally?On the 3-Day time frame, the relative strength indicator appears to be forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern formation below the 50 neutral zone. This pattern could boost bullish momentum above both the 50 level and 1.2630 threshold - pushing the RSI towards the 60 zone and testing the 1.28 resistance level. This setup aligns with the trendline connecting the consecutive lower highs from 2014 to 2021. A firm break beyond the 1.28 mark can extend gains towards the 1.2950 level, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level measured from the September 2024 high of 1.3434 to the January 2025 low of 1.21. On the downside, a move below 1.25 may reverse gains toward 1.2360, 1.2280, and 1.21- the final barrier before a potential bearish extension toward 1.17. Key Events to Watch this week: - UK Claimant Count Change (Tuesday) - UK CPI (Wednesday) - UK Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI (Friday) - Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
1
GBPUSDFundamental Analysis of GBP/USD (February 2025) This analysis includes updated macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical factors, data from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, possible scenarios, and a favorable scenario based on existing economic data. 1. Macroeconomic Indicators and Monetary Policy United Kingdom • GDP and Economic Growth: • The UK economy grew by 0.1% in Q4 2024, signaling a slight improvement in economic outlook. • Inflation: • Inflation is projected to reach 3.7% by autumn 2025, well above the 2% target set by the Bank of England (BoE). • BoE Monetary Policy: • In early February 2025, the BoE cut its interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50%, responding to weaker economic prospects and rising inflation expectations. • Unemployment and Labor Market: • The UK labor market remains fragile, with growing concerns about consumer demand and companies’ pricing power. United States • GDP and Economic Growth: • The US economy continues to expand at a strong pace, driven by robust consumer spending and a solid labor market. • Inflation: • US inflation remains above the 2% target, prompting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain restrictive monetary policy. • Fed Monetary Policy: • In its latest FOMC meeting, the Fed held its benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, signaling a cautious stance on inflation dynamics. • Unemployment and Labor Market: • The US unemployment rate remains low, reflecting a strong labor market. 2. Geopolitical Factors • Trade Relations and Tariff Policies: • The US administration has threatened retaliatory tariffs on countries imposing import taxes on American goods. While the UK may be less vulnerable due to its trade surplus with the US, global trade uncertainty adds pressure on the British pound. • Fiscal Policies: • The US budget deficit and expansionary fiscal policies may influence the long-term strength of the US dollar. 3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report - February 11, 2025 Non-Commercial Traders (Large Speculators): • Long Positions: 69,087 • Short Positions: 72,255 • Net Position: -3,168 (short on GBP) • Indicates a slightly bearish sentiment for the British pound, with large speculators expecting its depreciation. Commercial Traders (Hedgers): • Long Positions: 105,189 • Short Positions: 88,709 • Net Position: +16,480 (long on GBP) • Suggests that major institutions and corporations anticipate a long-term appreciation of the pound. Small Traders (Non-Reportable): • Long Positions: 4,735 • Short Positions: 3,363 • Net Position: +1,372 (long on GBP) • Indicates a moderately bullish sentiment among small traders. Interpretation: • Large speculators are net short on the pound, suggesting expectations of depreciation. • Commercial traders and small traders are net long, indicating a potential bullish correction for GBP in the long term. 4. Possible Scenarios for GBP/USD Scenario 1: USD Appreciation (Bearish for GBP/USD) • Triggers: • The Fed maintains high interest rates. • The US economy remains strong. • The BoE adopts a more accommodative (dovish) policy. • Outcome: • GBP/USD may fall below 1.23. Scenario 2: Consolidation (Sideways Movement) • Triggers: • Mixed economic data from both economies. • The Fed and BoE adopt a wait-and-see approach. • Outcome: • GBP/USD remains between 1.25 and 1.28. Scenario 3: GBP Appreciation (Bullish for GBP/USD) • Triggers: • The BoE delays or limits further rate cuts. • The US economy shows signs of slowing, prompting Fed rate cut signals. • Reduced global trade tensions improve market sentiment toward the pound. • Outcome: • GBP/USD may rise above 1.30 - 1.32. 5. Favorable Scenario Based on Current Data Given macroeconomic data, COT positioning, and geopolitical factors, the medium-term favorable scenario for GBP/USD is one of consolidation, with potential GBP appreciation. • Reasons: • Large speculators are short on GBP, but hedgers and small traders are long, indicating potential for a reversal. • The UK economy shows slight improvement despite ongoing risks. • If the Fed signals a dovish shift, the US dollar could weaken, supporting GBP/USD. • Target: • GBP/USD may test 1.28 - 1.30 in the coming months. 6. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Forex market is volatile, and trading decisions should be based on individual research and analysis. Any losses resulting from the use of this analysis are the sole responsibility of the investor.
by SkylimitBreakPoint
Daily CLS, Key level FVG/ OB Mid, Model 1Hey Traders !! Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions! 🧩 What is CLS? CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion. ✅By understanding how CLS operates—its specific modes and timings—you gain a powerful edge with more precise entries and well-defined targets. 🛡️Follow me and take a closer look at Models 1 and 2. These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions. 📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow. Wishing you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader! “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave Hunter ⚔
Long
by David_Perk
16
GBP/USD - Weekly OutlookHi all, Top Down Analysis Daily- Same figure as last weeks except breakout has been confirmed. I would expect price to return to the break before looking for larger Buy setups. 4H will explain this further 4H- Same as last week expect I notice all imbalance has been filled telling me bullish BIAS is still in play. Price has left one single Demand zone to return too so I will be making a trade of this 4H Mitigation 1H- As you can see I did predict the previous move pretty well so currently I do expect fundamentals to push price further down into this Demand zone to then push out of. I have marked a protected Low. We will watch this area before looking for trades Good luck to any traders that follow this system
by jamesibartram
1
GBPUSDOn the 3-Day time frame, the relative strength indicator appears to be forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern formation below the 50 neutral zone. This pattern could boost bullish momentum above both the 50 level and 1.2630 threshold - pushing the RSI towards the 60 zone and testing the 1.28 resistance level. This setup aligns with the trendline connecting the consecutive lower highs from 2014 to 2021. A firm break beyond the 1.28 mark can extend gains towards the 1.2950 level, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level measured from the September 2024 high of 1.3434 to the January 2025 low of 1.21. On the downside, a move below 1.25 may reverse gains toward 1.2360, 1.2280, and 1.21- the final barrier before a potential bearish extension toward 1.17. Key Events to Watch this week: - UK Claimant Count Change (Tuesday) - UK CPI (Wednesday) - UK Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI (Friday)
by Disco-Dave
1
GBPUSD, Pull-back time has arrivedGBPUSD/ 1D Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown. GBPUSD is showing strong bullish momentum after the dollar index DXY broke below resistance. However, the price is at the overbought zone for now. Hence, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for a pullback into the middle of the range zone for a more strategic entry. If the pullback holds and buy mode confirms, the next leg higher could target: Weekly high shown in the chart Stay disciplined, wait for the market to come to you, and trade with confidence! Trade safely, Trader Leo.
Long
by BTM-LEO
16
GBPUSDThe upcoming economic events, specifically the Claimant Count Change and Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey's speech, are likely to influence the GBP/USD trade directional bias for the week ahead. Key Events and Their Potential Impact Claimant Count Change: What It Is: This report measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK. A decrease in claims typically indicates a strengthening labor market, which can boost the currency. Forecast: If the claimant count shows a smaller increase or a decrease compared to previous figures, it could support the British Pound (GBP) against the U.S. Dollar (USD), potentially pushing GBP/USD higher. BOE Governor Bailey's Speech: Bailey's comments can provide insights into the BOE's monetary policy direction, particularly regarding interest rates and inflation expectations. Market Reaction: If Bailey signals a hawkish stance or hints at potential rate hikes, it could strengthen the GBP as traders anticipate tighter monetary policy. Conversely, a dovish tone may weaken the GBP. The combination of labor market data and central bank commentary will play a crucial role in determining the GBP/USD directional bias next week. Positive labor market data and hawkish signals from Bailey could lead to a bullish sentiment for GBP/USD, while disappointing data or dovish comments could result in downward pressure on the pair. we will watch closely these developments for potential trading opportunities.
by Shavyfxhub
GBPUSD AnalysisGBPUSD Analysis The GBP/USD pair has been in a predominantly bearish trend since September of last year, although there have been occasional corrective rallies. Despite these minor pullbacks, the overall direction of the pair has remained downward over the period. However, I believe that the bearish trend may have concluded. The pair has recently broken through a key structural resistance level, and the candle has closed decisively above this barrier, which is a strong indication of a potential shift in momentum. This breakout suggests a bullish setup could be forming, signaling a possible reversal in the pair's trajectory. It is important to note that this is my personal analysis and should not be interpreted as financial advice or a trading signal. If you would like to explore my reasoning further, feel free to engage in the comments section, and I would welcome your thoughts on whether the pair is now poised for a bullish move or if the bearish trend may persist. As always, thorough research and careful risk management are essential before making any trading decisions. Let me know what your perspective is—bullish or bearish—for this pair moving forward.
Long
by sirkamal
5
GBP/USD: Bank of England's Cautious Tone Sparks DeclineThe British pound has retreated from its recent gains, succumbing to downward pressure as Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey voiced his apprehensions regarding the economic outlook. This cautious stance from the BoE's leadership has cast a shadow over the currency, prompting investors to reassess their positions. From a technical analysis perspective, the GBP/USD pair is currently navigating a critical zone, characterized by a supply area that has historically acted as a barrier to upward movement. Notably, the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders are predominantly positioned on the bullish side of the market, suggesting a potential mismatch between market sentiment and the underlying fundamentals. Furthermore, seasonal patterns indicate that the pound may be on the cusp of a bearish momentum shift. This confluence of technical and seasonal factors has created a high-probability setup for a potential reversal, with the price action poised to challenge the recent uptrend. In light of these developments, we are actively seeking a short setup, anticipating that the pound's decline may gain momentum in the near term. The alignment of technical, fundamental, and seasonal forces suggests that the GBP/USD pair may be vulnerable to a corrective move, presenting an opportunity for traders to capitalize on the potential downturn. As the market continues to evolve, careful monitoring of the price action and trading sentiment will be crucial in determining the optimal entry and exit points for this potential short trade. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Bearish drop?GBP?USD is reacting off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.2614 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Stop loss: 1.2719 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Take profit: 1.2524 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets