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U.S. DOLLAR / HUNGARIAN FORINT REFERENCE RATE

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USDHUX trade ideas

How to catch a local top?Daily: - Bullish Ichimoku with supportat 281,75. Price move is too sharp, price is far above Kijun Sen and Senkou B! (bit overbought) - Price reached strong resistance zone at 290+ - Heikin-Ashi candle is bullish, but haDelta and DMO has warning signals: cross down after an extreme high print. This is initial signal of momentum loss. Market should start consolidation / pull back within few days. - EWO and MACD are bullish 4H: - Bullish Ichimoku - Heikin-Ashi signals is more bullish, but DMO is building negative divergence - EWO is bullish, but decreasing: negative divergence - A possible bearish wedge: if price can't make a higher high today, then divergences will put pressure on market, and a break below Tenkan and the wedge (289-289,50) can accelerate profit taking down to 283-285 area. For now profit taking on longs is highly recommended! Also watch for a swing short -> key level is 289,50
Short
by Kumowizard
Room to fall - Sell signalWhile Hungarian Central Bank tries to deploy all tools to prevent serious drop in EURHUF (HUF appreciation), the USDHUF is something they can not control. As both FED FOMC meeting, NBH meeting and Hungary's upgrade to investment grade by Standard and Poors is all behind us, it is time to examine the USDHUF chart. Weekly: - Ichimoku setup has strbthenning bearish bias: Price is below Kijun and Kumo, Tenkan/Kijun is meadium bearish, however Chikou Span is still at past candles. Chikou/past Kumo relation will be very important to follow in this case, as that reflects possible resistances ahead (first serious resistance will come around 268-270) - Heikin-Ashi has been indecisive for last four weeks, but if you look at haOscillator, you can see it is possibly rolling over to bearish again below its zero line. - EWO and MACD are bearish - Price pattern looks like a bear flag. It's longer term measured target points to as low as 250 (!). Maybe it is hard to immagine now, but long term trends take long time to develop... that's why we call it long term :-D Note: the purpe measure arrow doesn't mean I expect to reach 250 straight down by december 2016. It just shows the the possible distance to the measured target Daily: - Bearish Ichimoku setup. Kijun Sen has been holding nicely. There were spikes above occasionally, but price always dropped back and closed below Kijun quickly. - Heikin-Ashi gives a very clear sell signal now! haOscillator to confirm later. - EWO is bearish Real bearish acceleration can happen below 272. A quick move to 269-270 first target is possible, there we'll see.
Short
by Kumowizard
USDHUF - Long term uptrend exhausted. Time to focus on 277I see more signals which suggest that those who have been long term bullish for USDHUF should start to reconsider the upside of their strategic long positions. Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is bullish, but as price could not make a higher high so far this year (since the March top above 290), Chikou Span got very close to past candles. Tenkan and Kijun stay very close to each other and both lines are flat, which show averages have converged, and the bullish momentum has been lost. In fact it has become a wide range, with top side area at 285-290, and with lower supports at 279 (Kijun Sen), 268 and 260. - Heikin Ashi signal also warns us for decreasing buying power: we had three small body candles ard Kijun Sen, the last one has boths upper and lower wicks and its body is red. haDelta has built a firm negative divergence,and actually it is trying to dip below zero line. Long term Ichimoku trend followers, who bough the Kumo breakout ard 225 and has never sold on any swings would place their ultimate TP trailing stop at Kijun Sen minus some buffer, so somewhere ard 276-277. Daily: - Ichimoku setup is neutral, with weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross, Kumo overshade and Chikou at past candles. Look at the long term bullish trend line! It is very close to price, and also stays in line with Kumo and 100 WMA. It makes clearly 276-277 extremely important. - Heikin Ashi is bullish biased again, but if Price can't climb back above Kijun Sen (284), then it can quiickly change, as in that case haDelta negative divergence will persist. I don't know if it will break now, but it has some increasing chance, so better to pay attention. Short below 277!
Short
by Kumowizard
USDHUF - Noise, undecision, but maybe some bearish biasI am becoming more and more bearish biased generally on USD, at least looking forward to the next few months. The more USD crosses I look at, the more I feel we are ahead of a major global USD correction. Of course it will be all about the big question of "FED rate hike, hike later, no hike?". My personal feeling is that we will not see a hike in June, maybe we will see a small hike in September. In this case all those heavily loaded USD longs will start to unwind partially their positions, so USD will become more volatile and will be under pressure between May and August. However I try not to follow my feelings, but rather what charts call for, so let's have a look at USDHUF chart this time. Daily: - Major bullish trend, which started from May/2014 can remain valid, but some correction can happen if Price gets another push below the Kumo cloud. - Ichimoku setup is absolutely neutral right now. Price is trading around the equilibrium level of 280. All averages (Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou A and B stay together at this level, with some confusion, as Tenkan is above Kijun (medium bullish) but Senkou A points down and is below Senkou B, which means future kumo is a bit bearish biased now. - Heikin Ashi has been giving mixed signals. haDelta/SMA3 has been swinging around zero line. We need to see some more action. Let's have a look at the lower time frame. 4H: - Ichimoku setup is totally neutral. Price is swinging around equilibrium, all average lines are flat and stay appr. same level, Chikou is at past candles. - Price has been trading in a symmetrical tightenning triangle -> waiting for a break - DMI/ADX is neutral, says no trend in place - Heikin Ashi setup is short term bearish biased A Price close below 276,50 would be a bearish trigger. In that case USDHUF can retest the very important horizontal support ard 267.
by Kumowizard
USDHUF - It's slowly getting more bearish, add to shortsDaily: - Red HA candles, haDelta below SMA3, both below zero line. - Oscillator turned bearish, MACD is bearish too. - Supports (also possible short term swing tgts) are 268,80 and 262,50 4H: - The consolidation may finally end in a bearish Kumo breakout. Tenkan/Kijun medium bearish, Chikou Span - Candles are not decisive enough (tight range in last few days), but haDelta and Oscillator suggest more bearish move is ahead. - DMI is bearish with increasing ADX - 271 may be a bit harder to break first, we may see one spike from there later to retest Kumo before further bearish acceleration towards 268 or lower kevels.
Short
by Kumowizard
USDHUF - Consolidation, undecision, major move aheadDaily: - Ichimoku setup is long term bullish - Heiken Ashi candles are rather neutral. two reds, two greens, two dojis, one green -> consolidation pattern - haDelta is still bullish biased as long as it's above zero line, Oscillator is bullish too, but MACD is still in bearish cross - Price should break above range top within next few days to be able to continue bullish trend, otherwise a break below Tenkan Sen and the steeper trendline would bring a correction to one of the lower support levels - Lower suppourts are: Kijun Sen and horizontal support ard 268,50-269 and Senkou B at 261 4 Hrs: - The picture shows a top consolidation before the next major move happens. It is a tightenning triangle, where we have three lower highs and two higher lows so far. - Ichimoku picture is neutral, Tenkan is below Kijun, but Price is above both of them and above the Kumo. Kumo is thin and flat. Chikou Span is swinging around Price candles - DMI is neutral/bearish (ADX is low, so not a strong signal right now) - Last two Heiken Ashi candles and haDelta shows bearih bias, but for a real counter trend to start and bearish momentum to accelerate, Price should break below 272,70 and later below 271. That would be a valid Kumo breakout confirmed with a Chikou Span bearish cross below the Kumo too. Given the macro picture in Hungary (with main focus on positive C/A), the still persisting risk appetite for all non EUR denominated European bonds, and the increasing chance for a general USD correction, somehow I give higher chance for a break on the lower side of the triangle and a correction to come in USDHUF.
by Kumowizard
USDHUF - Sell for short term pullbackIt seems some general USD correction may take place now, while HUF itself was under pressure due to Ukraine-Russia tension, which also may ease a bit. This means probably we'll see some bigger swing down in EURHUF. Daily: The long term Ichimoku setup is still bullish, but MACD has some negative divergence already compared to Price. Both MACD and Slow Stoch may give a short term sell signal. The targets for the pullback are 236 (Kijun Sen), and if it gets deeper then probably 234 (shorter term trendline support), or in extreme case to the Kumo support of 232,50. 4 Hrs: DMI bearish cross with high but decreasing ADX. Ichimoku is still bullish, but most of the components got flat, which also shows the momentum is decreasing. Lower key levels are: 237,50 - 238,50 / 235,80 / 232,50 (strong support)
Short
by Kumowizard
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