USDIDR trade ideas
Further IDR Depreciation?This has been a tough one to make a prediction because it is at the same level during the crisis in 1998, but notice it is the new normal for Rupiah, even though nominal term seems horrifying, but in terms of percentage it is tamer than of that in 1998, 2008/2009 and 2015. Looking at the 3 flags pattern there are probability that IDR may hit 15k in the near term.
The low inflation in Indonesia (2.88% in September 2018) will hopefully control the IDR movement against the USD because considering a higher real yield from IDR bonds will invite foreign investors to buy in and creating a higher demand for IDR bonds and of course it will appreciate the IDR as well.
Continuation Probabilities on USD/IDR Still HighThe bullish momentum seems can't be stopped till this end of year.
USDIDR will definitely determined by 2019 next electionI'm betting on Rupiah strengthened against dollar if Mr. Prabowo being elected in next 2019 president election and predicting Rupiah will go straight above 15K-ish if Mr. Jokowi continue to the second period.
My ressistant and support is above.
Mr. Prabowo x Mr. Sandi = Military x Businessman = IDR will be strengthened to 12K-ish
Mr. Jokowi x Mr. Ma'aruf Amin = Businessman x Religious Leader = IDR will be weakened to 15K-ish
Tradingview,
Blockchaindedi
2:20 P.M - 1 September 2018, Indonesia.
USDIDR,Mo
The dollar tests its ability to head to 16000 or will it return to the price of 13000?
All can happen
USD/IDR Almost bearish?Now price of USD/IDR has reach its peak from 2014-2015 run, is USD/IDR still too high? maybe yes, its reach last highest price.
so? its preferred that holders will selling their dollars to rupiahs soon by now, or if they dont, not many people want to buy dollar at this time...
Bearish on USD/IDRNot pretending this is a sure thing, there's still potential for higher dollar versus Indonesian rupiah, but, from a technical analysis perspective, we're at a key level and very well poised for a quick correction.
usd/idr limited uptrend until 2019idr will continue weak but limited until red line not break it will safe until 2019, if break red line it will go up and fly for usd
an Example of how i use Forex knowledge to help my import tradeHi Traders,
Today i want to share about how forex can help my judgement to buy some USD for my export import business payment.
I import commodity from european and from australia with USD as payment term. so hope this chart can become an example if you in the same situation as i am. this chart is my prediction and help me to make decision where i should buy some USD using pattern, wave, fib, trend and resistance analysis.
Just a quick explanation why i'm using those analysis. it's just because those 5 will give you intrepretation of human behavior towards demand and supply just by watching chart movement.
- I know that with huge power of the 3rd wave 80-90% chance that they will still making wave 5.
1. so the first place i will buy is at the 1st blue arrow at the 4th wave. always remember as and investor and as a trader, a good place to enter is at correction.
I buy in this area because it is at fib 3.82, and it is also near support resistance area. so i decide to buy USD in this area. hopefully to be able to make payment to my supplier until the 5th wave is finished. it sometimes i have lack of usd before it finished but i already made good amount of profit out of it rather i do nothing.
2. i will buy at the second blue arrow, after the 5th wave, most of the time, they will make correction or reversal. so the good time to buy is at the ressistance. because most of the time the price will be hold there for a few moment.
So this is my analysis, if this goes according to my plan i will receive more profit than it should be.
this is just an prediction, the price and picture will not 100% the same like my prediction. sometimes in the middle of the journey i need to re adjust my entry and exit point.
Good Luck and Have a good day ^^
potensi saat ini pada rupiahTrend pelemahan pada dollar akhir akhir ini pada mata uang utama dapat memperngaruhi rupiah untuk menguat
berikut forecast sederhana untuk rupiah CMIIW IMHO
Cheers :-)
IDR: CAPITAL IS OUT-FLOWING FROM INDONESIA TO HAMMER THE ECONOMYThe medium and long terms exchange rate target zones on IDR with USD, EUR, CHF, JPY are confirmed the continuous capital out flowing from Indonesia in medium to long terms by weakening IDR in medium to long terms. The alignment, realignment and continuously realignment strongly confirmed the long term weakening of IDR. Monthly to short terms however will drive the IDR to be strong before resumed to be weakened in medium and long terms.
The long term GDP band of Indonesia also confirmed the downward long term directional movement on GDP as well as inflation band. The continuously weakening of IDR in the market will continue to drive the weakening of the Indonesia economy and driven by the shortage of liquidity. Liquidity dry up could be potentially less anticipated and may bring Indonesia to the next Venezuela.
The capital out-flowing will hammer all Indonesian economic indicators beyond the economists' expectation and away from government's optimistic projection.
USDIDRPenguatan USD akan menguji level 13050 - 13100 Jika terjadi rebound maka USD akan menuju 12700
Ayo IDR Kita bisa!!
~~ Keep it Simple
USDIDR NDF Breaking Down?EM currencies have mostly recovered from their Balance of Payments crisis... As evidenced by their potential breakouts against the dollar; concurrent to broader USD strength!
Short Rupiah till FOMCThe consolidation might lead to a stronger dollar in coming week, considering the FOMC meeting will be on Tuesday which can be a very volatile market in the USDIDR market, shorting the IDR would be a wise move.
