USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisCOT Report Analysis:
Overal we can see strong bearish sentiment in the COT.
and price will most likely continue lower - in the longterm.
Because those short must be closed one day and it will be below the lows.
Also if Market makers wants to build longs they will be also doing it below the
lows. For new there is forming counter trend buy setup which I will probably take
but its not point of this sentiment analysis. This is bigger picture view and if Market
makers are bearish my longs countertrend trades will be taken with 1/2 risk than usually
/b]
Hey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. Im always trying to trade with the Big players so knowing their positions is good thing.
Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
I created this simple free indicator which you can find in the my scripts. It's highlighting the day of the real report - Tuesday.
Here is the tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
USDJPY trade ideas
USDJPY: 300+ Pips From Previous Idea, What Hold Next? Hey Everyone
USDJPY is on a roll! It’s rebounded a whopping 300+ pips and is now on the positive side. We reckon it’s going to keep climbing in the coming days as DXY is starting to regain its strength.
And here’s the cherry on top: there’s some exciting news coming up, including the NFP tomorrow. This could really boost the USDJPY to a new record high.
But remember, when trading, it’s crucial to manage your risk carefully.
Now, let’s talk about the potential for a significant market movement. We’ve spotted a chance for a substantial bullish swing that could reach around 2050 pips. We’ve also identified three potential targets, so you can choose the one that best fits your analysis.
The main driver behind this move is the reversal of the Japanese Yen (JPY) from a bullish trend to a bearish one. So, let’s be cautious and use precise risk management techniques during this period.
Good luck and happy trading! 😊
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USDJPY Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my USDJPY analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
USDJPY → Price in range, retest of resistanceFX:USDJPY is emerging from local consolidation in hopes of seeing economic data that could support the dollar. The target for this movement could be the liquidity zone at 144.00.
The currency pair is trading within a neutral range of 144.14 - 141.64. However, a local consolidation has formed within the range, from which the price has broken out. The main task for the bulls is to hold the defense above 142.75, in which case we will be able to catch the price distribution to the upper border of the global range of 144.14.
News ahead, positive data may strengthen the dollar, which will accordingly affect USDJPY, but there is strong resistance at 144.14, whose liquidity pool may trigger a downward rebound. The trend is neutral.
Resistance levels: 143.9, 144.14
Support levels: 142.75, 141.98
There are no reasons to exit the global range. Over the past two weeks, this will be the first retest of the 144.14 zone, which in general only increases the chances of a false breakout and correction.
Best regards, R. Linda!
USD/JPY Bullish Breakout Setup: Key Resistance at 144.939 and TaEntry Point: ~144.037
Stop Loss: ~144.939 (above the recent resistance zone)
Resistance Zone: Between 144.037 and 144.939 (highlighted by purple area)
First Target Point (EA Target Point): ~139.731 (Bearish target if reversal happens)
Second Target Point (Bullish EA Target Point): ~148.737
Current Price:
As of the chart, price is around 143.743, slightly below the entry point.
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout:
If price breaks and closes above 144.939, expect strong bullish momentum toward 148.737.
Confirmation: Look for strong bullish candles with volume above the resistance zone.
Bearish Rejection:
If price fails to break 144.939 and shows bearish reversal patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing), a pullback toward 144.037 or even down to 139.731 is likely.
Additional Notes:
The orange circles highlight key points where price respected trendlines and support zones — showing strong buyer interest.
A rising trendline (drawn underneath recent lows) supports the ongoing bullish structure.
Risk-Reward seems well balanced: small risk (~90 pips) for a potential reward (~400+ pips).
Summary:
Bias: Cautiously bullish, but watch carefully around the 144.939 resistance.
Action: Wait for a clean breakout or a rejection pattern before deciding.
USDJPY: Time to Recover?!The USDJPY chart formed an inverted cup & handle pattern that has broken its neckline on a daily timeframe, signaling a confirmed Change of Character (CHoCH) and suggesting a potential bullish reversal.
This could lead to a market recovery and a possible move towards the 146.00 level in the near future.
USD/JPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) oscillates in a narrow trading band at the start of a new week and remains close to a two-week trough touched against its American counterpart on Friday. Mixed signals from the US and China temper hopes for a quick resolution of the trade conflict between the world's two largest economies, which, in turn, offers support to the safe-haven JPY. Moreover, expectations that Japan will strike a trade deal with the US turn out to be another factor underpinning the JPY.
Meanwhile, investors have been scaling back their bets for an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) as rising economic risks from US tariffs overshadow signs of broadening inflation in Japan. This holds back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets, which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. However, the divergent BoJ-Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations should cap the USD and benefit the lower-yielding JPY.
USDJPY Weekly CLS I Continuation setup I Target Weekly CLS HighHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument
If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model.
If you haven't followed me yet, start now.
My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution.
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
🛡️ Models 1 and 2:
From my posts, you can learn two core execution models.
They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
📍 Model 2
occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
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"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
#USDJPY: 2050+ Pips Swing Buy| Trend Confirmed| Comment Views? **FX:USDJPY** A significant market movement has confirmed, indicating the potential for a substantial bullish swing that could reach approximately 2050 pips. Three targets have been identified, allowing you to select the one that aligns best with your analysis. The primary catalyst for this move is the reversal of the Japanese Yen (JPY) to a bearish trend. It is crucial to employ precise risk management techniques and exercise caution during this period.
Good luck and trade safely.
Thanks for your support! 😊
If you want to help us out, here are a few things you can do:
- Like our ideas
- Comment on our ideas
- Share our ideas
Team Setupsfx_
❤️
NNFX USDJPY Short ContinuationEntered 1% Position on USDJPY Short
Settings:
50% Scale Out at 1xTP
USD News Friday NFP secure position.
Commentary:
First trade back after a break due to burn out. Excited to be back in the markets trading Judge Fortress Algorithm signals. Double excited to begin a new chapter sharing this trade setup journal with the public and build on NNFX Advanced Tactics for Live Trading!
USD/JPY 1H Chart AnalysisStructure: Bullish, with higher highs (H1) and higher lows consistently forming.
Key Zone: A demand zone around 143.00 – 143.20. Price could pull back here for liquidity before continuing higher.
Current Price: Consolidating near 143.70 after a strong impulse.
Bias: Bullish, as long as price holds above 143.00. Watching for a possible dip into demand before resuming the uptrend toward 144.20 highs.
USDJPY Daily & H4 Forecasts, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeaTechnical analysis is on the chart!
No description needed!
FX:USDJPY
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Now, it's your turn!
Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Have a successful week,
ForecastCity Support Team
Yen Under Pressure Ahead of BOJ DecisionThe Japanese yen edged closer to 144 per dollar on Monday, continuing last week’s decline as global trade sentiment improved and the dollar strengthened. Markets responded to a private meeting between Japan’s Finance Minister Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, during which both parties stressed the importance of ongoing discussions on currency matters. Meanwhile, Japan’s trade negotiator is set to visit Washington this week, as the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain interest rates at 0.5%, amid concerns over the economic impact of U.S. tariffs.
Key resistance is at 144.00, with further levels at 145.90 and 146.75. Support stands at 139.70, followed by 137.00 and 135.00.
USD/JPY : Bull or Bear? Let's See! (READ THE CAPTION)Upon reviewing the USD/JPY chart on the daily timeframe, we observe that due to the sharp drop in the Dollar Index, the price has reached the 140.850 level. This decline was very strong and impulsive; however, as seen on the chart, the price has now approached a significant demand zone between 139.6 and 141. If the price manages to close and stabilize above this area, we can expect a further bullish move from this pair.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
USDJPY ready for another drop?After daily break of structure USDJPY just has managed to form another head and shoulder with strong liquidity grab has started to move in the major direction of the trend. After yesterdays drop, price today so far has done pullback and formed another possible bearish market structure.
As of upcoming USD and JPY news may push that price back to the support as shown in sketch.
A sell trade is high probability
USD/JPY : Get Ready for another Rally! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the USD/JPY chart on the daily timeframe, we can see that, as expected, the price has finally started to rise. So far, it has successfully reached the 143.5 and 144 targets, and extended up to 145.76, delivering a solid 350-pip move.
The main analysis remains valid, and I expect the price to hit the next target at 146.2 soon.
The total gain from this setup has now exceeded 570 pips, and the key upcoming supply zones are at 146.2, 148.7, and 150.
This analysis will be updated accordingly!
THE MAIN ANALYSIS :
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
USD/JPY) bullish trend analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/JPY chart shows a bullish reversal setup. Here’s a breakdown behind the analysis:
1. Downtrend & Channel Breakout:
Price was trending downward within a descending channel (marked “channel trend”).
Recently, the price broke out of the channel, signaling a potential trend reversal.
2. Demand Zone (Diamond Zone):
The yellow box labeled “Diamond Zone” represents a demand/support zone where price previously found buyers.
A retest of this zone is expected before the bullish move.
3. EMA (200):
The EMA (200) is currently above the price but close. A break above this level (142.522) could add to bullish momentum.
4. RSI Indicator:
RSI is showing a bounce off a mid-level (~50), suggesting bullish momentum is gaining.
5. Target Level:
The analysis targets 147.838, which aligns with a prior resistance zone.
The move projects a 5.19% gain (~778.5 pips) from the current setup.
Trading Idea Summary:
Entry: Around the “Diamond Zone” after a successful retest.
Confirmation: Watch for bullish candlestick patterns or a break above EMA 200.
Target: 147.838
Stop Loss (implied): Below the Diamond Zone (~140.000)
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
USDJPY BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISUSDJPY has just completed a clean breakout above a well-defined descending channel on the 4H chart, signaling the beginning of a short-term bullish wave. This move reflects a technical shift in sentiment as buyers reclaim control after weeks of selling pressure. The breakout candle closed above the upper trendline, indicating a strong potential for continuation. The target zone appears to align with the previous resistance zone around 147.68, where price reacted multiple times in the past, creating a well-defined liquidity area.
From a fundamental standpoint, the dollar is regaining traction following a stabilization in U.S. Treasury yields and a slight pullback in geopolitical tensions. Market participants are also pricing in a slightly more hawkish Fed tone, as inflation remains persistent and jobless claims continue to show strength. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan remains firmly dovish, with no indication of tightening policy anytime soon, reinforcing yen weakness and supporting the upside momentum in USDJPY.
This current price action is not just technical—it is aligned with macro drivers. The divergence in monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan continues to be a key bullish factor for USDJPY. As long as U.S. inflation remains sticky and Fed officials lean toward holding or even hiking rates, this pair is likely to stay supported on dips. Add to that Japan’s fragile domestic consumption outlook and persistent intervention threats, and USDJPY may find itself grinding higher toward resistance zones.
In conclusion, with the channel breakout confirmed and fundamentals favoring a bullish bias, I’m eyeing upside continuation toward 147.68. A tight stop below 140.20 makes the setup attractive in terms of risk-reward. I'll be watching price reaction at interim levels, but the structure is clean and the setup has strong confluence—perfect for capturing this short-term wave.