USD/JPY...1h chart pattern..Here's a quick summary of MY USD/JPY trade setup:
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Trade Idea: SELL USD/JPY @ 144.000
Entry Point: 144.000
Target 1 (TP1): 143.400 → +60 pips
Target 2 (TP2): 142.400 → +160 pips
Suggestions:
Stop Loss (SL): Consider setting a stop loss above recent resistance (e.g., 144.500 or 144.800) to manage risk.
Risk/Reward Ratio:
For TP1: 1:1 with SL @ 144.600
For TP2: ~2.6:1 with SL @ 144.600
Key Technical Zones:
Watch for support near 143.400 (TP1); possible bounce or consolidation.
142.400 is a deeper move — stronger confirmation needed (e.g., a break below 143.400 with volume).
Let me know if you’d like a chart analysis or updates on news that could impact this trade.
USDJPY trade ideas
USD/JPY – Short-term bullish structure within a larger downtrendThe USD/JPY pair has been in a well-established downtrend on the daily timeframe, showing consistent weakness over recent weeks.
Daily timeframe
The pair recently bounced from a significant and well-respected support zone around the $140.00 level. This area has historically provided a strong base for price, and once again, it appears to be holding as reliable support. Although the overall daily trend remains bearish, this bounce introduces the potential for a short-term retracement or consolidation phase.
Clear Rising Trendline on the 4H Chart
Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the price action shows a notable shift in momentum. A clear rising trendline has formed, acting as a dynamic support level and guiding the pair higher in the short term. As long as this trendline remains intact and unbroken, the bullish bias on the 4H remains valid. This upward move suggests a corrective phase within the broader daily downtrend, supported by increasing demand at higher lows.
Approaching Key Resistance — FVG and 0.786 Fibonacci Level
The pair is currently approaching a key resistance area near the $145.50 level. This zone aligns with the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) left by the previous strong downward move and coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, measured from the most recent swing high to swing low. A few days ago, price action briefly tested the lower boundary of this FVG but failed to fully fill the imbalance. Given the current momentum, another attempt to fill the entire FVG and test the 0.786 Fibonacci level is likely. This confluence of technical factors creates a strong resistance zone that could trigger significant price reactions, potentially resuming the broader downtrend.
Target Levels — Where to Look for Reversal or Profit-Taking
A sensible short-term target would be the previous lower high around the $144.00 level. This zone may serve as an initial resistance or take-profit area before price challenges the $145.50 resistance region. Additionally, if the pair breaks below the rising trendline on the 4H, this $144.00 zone could become a support level from which the pair might attempt another move higher.
Conclusion
To summarize, the USD/JPY pair remains in a broader daily downtrend but has shown signs of short-term strength after bouncing from the $140.00 support zone. On the 4-hour timeframe, bullish momentum is evident, supported by a rising trendline and upward movement toward a significant resistance area. Traders should closely watch the $145.50 zone, as it represents a confluence of the FVG and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement — both of which could act as a strong ceiling for price. Until the rising trendline breaks, the short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, but the medium-term bias leans bearish if resistance holds and selling pressure resumes.
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe price test at 144.27 occurred when the RSI indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, but the strong U.S. labor market data offered a high probability of the dollar strengthening against the yen, which I decided to take advantage of. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 145.06.
The confident growth in U.S. non-farm employment recorded in May exceeded experts' expectations' causing noticeable fluctuations in currency, markets. The publications of data showing the creation of 139,7000 new jobs versus the forecasted 127,000 instantly strengthened the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on the Japanese yen. The yen's reaction to the news was immediate: the currency weakened significantly against the dollar. Investors perceived the data as a signal of the strength of the U.S. economy and the likely continuation of Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy. Furthermore, the stable unemployment rate in the U.S. recorded at 4.2%, also reinforced the market's optimistic sentiment.
Today's data shows that Japan's GDP for the first quarter was revised upward, which helped the yen recover slightly from Friday's losses against the U.S. dollar. However, despite the positive revision, Japan's economy still faces serious challenges. Weak domestic demand and an aging population continue to pressure growth, while geopolitical uncertainty poses additional obstacles. The Bank of Japan maintains a wait-and-see approach and has no plans to raise interest rates for now, which had previously provided good support to the the yen. Strong growth in bank lending also contributed to increased demand for the yen.
USDJPY Poised for a BreakoutUSDJPY Poised for a Breakout
On the 4-hour chart, USDJPY is not yet taking a clear direction. The price is showing the possibility of both movements.
With the current data we can see that USDJPY is forming a triangle pattern and only the breakdown up or down will show the direction of the price.
However, I think the chances are higher for the bullish movement considering that the geopolitical tension in the Middle East is also very high and the USD remains one of the strongest currencies.
Bullish target: 147.90
Bearish target: 140.90
⚠️ Note: If the pattern transforms more than this triangle, then we may be in a different situation and everything may be invalid. The analysis may change over time.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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USD/JPY - Triangle Breakout (06.06.2025)The USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 144.94
2nd Resistance – 145.52
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Usdjpy|| — the next move could be explosiveUSD/JPY
Timeframe: 2H
Strategy: Elliott Wave + Triangle Pattern + Fair Value Gap (FvG)
Formation: Contracting Triangle – Wave (a) to (e)
Risk-Reward: High Conviction Setup
Status: On the verge of breakout
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
The chart shows a classic contracting triangle pattern with completed internal waves (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e).
Price is reacting near wave (e), signaling a potential bullish breakout.
A clean Fair Value Gap (FvG) zone lies just below current price — possible last dip before the breakout surge.
Target zone = 148.874, derived from the triangle's height projected from breakout point.
Strong confluence with liquidity hunt below before expansion move.
🎯 Target: 148.874
🛑 Stop Loss: Below 142.738 (SI Level / structural low)
🟢 Entry Trigger: Breakout above trendline + retest confirmation or Smart Money entry at FvG
This setup aligns with Elliott Wave triangle theory, often seen before sharp impulse waves. Smart Money is likely filling orders in the FvG zone before the upward expansion.
USDJPY Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my USDJPY analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
USD/JPY) bearish Technical Analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar vs. Japanese Yen) on the 4-hour timeframe. Here's a breakdown of the analysis:
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Trend & Price Action
The chart shows a descending trendline connecting recent lower highs, indicating a downtrend.
Current price: 143.548
Price has recently rejected off the trendline and started to fall, suggesting continued bearish momentum.
A red arrow marks the rejection point, emphasizing a key resistance area.
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Technical Indicators
EMA 200 (Exponential Moving Average): At 144.459 — the price is currently below the EMA, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI (14) values: around 35.45, which is near the oversold threshold (30) but not quite there yet.
Indicates increasing bearish momentum but no reversal signal yet.
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Support Levels Identified
1. Support Level (Target 1): ~142.280
First target point for bears. Likely to see some reaction or consolidation here.
2. Big Support Level (Target 2): ~140.382
A stronger, more significant support zone and a deeper bearish target if the first support breaks.
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Bearish Target Scenario
The projected path (in black lines) suggests:
A further drop into the 142.280 zone.
If that breaks, a continuation toward the 140.382 level.
This suggests a swing trade setup favoring short positions if the price respects the current rejection zone.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Conclusion
Bias: Bearish
Resistance Confirmed: Rejection from descending trendline and below EMA200.
Bearish Targets:
Short-term: 142.280
Medium-term: 140.382
Risk Management: Watch RSI for potential bullish divergence near the second support zone, which could indicate reversal or consolidation.
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DeGRAM | USDJPY retesting the resistance level📊 Technical Analysis
● Four consecutive higher-lows off 140.9 have carved a rising flag that presses the channel roof (144.8); flag depth projects to the April swing-top/ Fib cluster at 147.8 once 145 is cleared.
● Daily RSI holds above 50 and price is now trading back above the broken wedge-cap (142.9), confirming it as demand and tilting risk toward the 150.9 macro ceiling.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● US 2-yr yields stay >4.70 % after solid ISM-services prices, while BoJ minutes show members preferring “patient” normalisation; the widening policy gap keeps yen funding pressure intact.
✨ Summary
Long 142.9-144.0; break of 145 targets 147.8, stretch 150.9. Bull view invalidated on a daily close below 140.9.
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USDJPY TRADING ROADMAP 09 - 13 JUNI 2025📈 USDJPY TRADING ROADMAP
Trading Plan & Market Outlook
The USDJPY pair is currently in a bullish phase and is expected to continue rising toward the Supply Zone between 146.765 – 147.664, as long as price action holds above the key Demand Zone at 142.273 – 141.426.
🔹 Trading Plan:
Primary Trend: Bullish (price heading to supply zone)
Demand Zone (Support): 142.273 – 141.426
→ This zone acts as the trend validation and risk threshold
Supply Zone (Resistance): 146.765 – 147.664
→ Potential target zone for bullish continuation
Risk Management:
As long as price stays above 141.426, the bullish outlook remains valid.
A break below this level may signal a shift in market direction.
📌 Key Notes:
Wait for price action confirmation near zones before taking entry.
Use proper position sizing and risk-reward ratios.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER ON
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
Always do your own research and use appropriate risk management.
USDJPY has breakout the descending channel bullish strong nowFX:USDJPY Alert – Bullish Breakout in Play!
1H Timeframe | Descending Channel Breakout
📈 Entry: 144.300
🎯 Target 1: 146.000 (Key Resistance)
🛡️ Stop Loss: 142.700 (Demand Zone / Bullish OB)
After a clean breakout above the descending channel, USDJPY is showing strong bullish momentum. Price action confirms a potential move toward the next resistance level.
🔍 Technicals are lining up. Risk managed. Eyes on the prize.
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#USDJPY #ForexTrading #BreakoutSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #LiviaTrades 😜📉📈
Who wants to join the shorting party? Come onboard now..USDJPYWe have a nice retracement now and the risk reward is also good......
For beginners, again, I wouldn't suggest increasing your position size unless you have a clear profit target to get out. This is volatile pair where one moment you can see nice profits in your account and the next hour , it turns red. It is not the exit nor the entry that I believes create the anxiety but rather the unfinished business of having the money in your pocket.
There, you see profits rising and your fear increases by the minute to ask you take it or else.......and on the other hand, you worry, what if it goes down lower and you missed this opportunity. Every single day, this situation happens and some make money initially only to return back to the market. They then took revenge and bet more only to lose even more until they torn and battered, decides trading is not for them.
I suggest the minimum contract size you can trade with and start from there and learn as you see the price goes up and down. See what it does to your emotions - like riding a roller coaster. You imagined what you can do with the profits had you times 10 but you did not or wished it wasn't a demo account but real live account. Or you hesitated to enter and then it went up like a rocket and you sighed a relief, how lucky/good you were in spotting the market trend.
Trading on a different level reveals your true self much like a mirror and you can be honest about it or continues to fake it. It is up to you!
USD/JPYMy initial bias was to short USD/JPY; however, the pair has since formed a double bottom pattern, indicating a potential bullish reversal. It has broken through a key resistance level at 144.300. I am now waiting for confirmation of a successful retest of this level before considering a long position.
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 142.40
1st Support: 139.58
1st Resistance: 148.45
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USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend.
🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
💊 Tip
if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that os slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 144.27
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 143.36
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 146.07
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Wave 5 Upside Target at 144.67USD/JPY is currently consolidating around the 144.00 level, suggesting the end of wave 4 within a 5-wave impulsive structure. Price action indicates potential for wave 5 to begin, with a projected target near 144.67.
Wave 1 to 3 appears clean and impulsive, with wave 3 extending strongly — a common trait in trending markets.
Wave 4 seems to be forming a flat or shallow zigzag correction, respecting typical retracement territory (between 23.6%–38.2% of wave 3).
If wave 4 holds above 143.80 (your stop), this level serves as the ideal invalidator for the current bullish structure.
Wave 5 would likely aim for 144.67, aligning with the 100% or 123.6% Fibonacci extension of wave 1, projected from wave 4's bottom.
Momentum indicators on lower timeframes are stabilizing, supporting the idea that downside pressure is waning and that the next leg higher may be imminent.
A break above 144.20–144.30 could confirm the wave 5 initiation. As long as price holds above 143.80, the risk-reward remains favorable toward the upside.
USD/JPY) Bearish trend analysis Read The ChaptianSMC trading point update
Technical analysis iUSD/JPY on the 30-minute timeframe, showing a rejection from resistance zones and a potential move toward lower support levels.
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Analysis Breakdown
Technical Components:
1. Resistance Zones:
Primary Resistance: Near 145.500 (upper yellow box), which has previously been rejected multiple times (red arrows).
FVG (Fair Value Gap) Resistance Level: Around 144.400, also acting as strong resistance, especially near the EMA 200.
2. Downtrend Line:
The price is moving below a downward trendline, respecting bearish structure.
Last rejection from both the trendline and FVG zone confirms selling pressure.
3. EMA 200 (144.075):
Price is hovering around this level, showing indecision.
Bearish bias remains unless price breaks and holds above it.
4. Target Zone:
A clearly marked support level around 142.543, shown as the bearish target.
Includes multiple event markers (potential news catalysts or key dates), suggesting added volatility.
5. RSI (14):
Currently near 55.23, with a prior rejection from higher RSI levels.
Bearish divergence not clear, but no overbought conditions.
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Bearish Idea Summary:
Thesis: Rejection from resistance zones + trendline + EMA suggests continuation to downside.
Expecting: Price to either:
Retest the upper resistance zone (around 145.000–145.500) and reject again, or
Break below current levels and continue lower toward 142.543.
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Trade Idea Concept:
Entry Option 1: Sell on confirmed rejection from FVG zone or upper resistance.
Entry Option 2: Sell on break and retest below 144.000.
Target: 142.543 (support zone).
Stop Loss: Above the resistance zone or trendline (e.g., >145.600).
Mr SMC Trading point
Risks to Watch:
Invalidation: Clean break and close above 145.500 would invalidate the bearish setup.
News Impact: Note the icons near the target zone – monitor economic releases around that time.
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USDJPYPotential swing trade incoming ( Short )
- creating LLs and LHs
- Hitting daily supply line
- 3rd touch off the downwards trendline
- high wick candles on the lower time frames - sellers are stepping in
- SL just above previouse LH
- TP at major demand zone
- overall downwards trend within the market
boost and comment away guys i want to here your take on this trade
USDJPY H1 I Bullish Bounce OffBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling toward our buy entry at 143.70, which is a pullback support that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fib retracement.
Our take profit will be at 144.74, which is a pullback resistance level.
The stop loss will be placed at 142.81, an overlap support.
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