Get started

U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals Economic Calendar

USDJPY trade ideas

USDJPY Analysis : Major Move Loading Towards Target Zone🕵️‍♂️ Overview The USDJPY pair is approaching a critical turning point within a well-established descending channel structure. After several months of corrective movement and internal structure shifts, the market is now displaying multiple layers of confluence pointing toward an impending major reaction or reversal. Let’s break down this chart step by step. 🧱 Market Structure Analysis 🔹 Descending Channel: The entire chart is governed by a broad descending channel, with price making lower highs and lower lows since early March. Each touch of the channel support has led to a bounce, and the price is now once again near channel resistance, creating a possible reaction zone. 🔹 Volume Contraction Phase: In the mid-section of the chart, we observe volume contraction, indicating liquidity drying up and buyers/sellers entering a phase of uncertainty. This contraction is typical in accumulation or re-accumulation phases, which often precede strong impulsive moves — exactly what followed here. 🧩 Structural Breaks and Trendline Clarity 🔸 Minor Break of Structure: A recent high was taken out in early July, marking a minor break of structure (BOS), showing the first signs of bulls taking short-term control. 🔸 Major Break of Structure: A more significant high (marked on the chart) has also been broken, confirming a major BOS — this implies institutional positioning or a shift in market sentiment. 🔸 Trendline Break – Extra Confirmation: The bullish push came after breaking a clean internal trendline, which acted as diagonal resistance. Once this trendline broke, price aggressively accelerated upward — this is a classic market maker cycle (MMC) Phase 2 (expansion) move. 📍 Confluence at Next Reversal Zone (149.00 – 150.00) The green highlighted zone is the next potential area for bearish pressure to return, based on: Key Supply Zone: Historical area where sellers previously dominated. Channel Resistance Confluence: Top of the descending channel aligns with this zone. Psychological Level: 150.00 is a major psychological round number — often attracts profit-taking and institutional activity. Fibonacci (if plotted): Likely 78.6% – 88.6% retracement from last swing high. Overextended Rally: Price has rallied strongly since early July with very little correction — it’s approaching exhaustion. 🔄 Market Maker Cycle (MMC) Alignment This move perfectly reflects the Market Maker Cycle: Accumulation: During volume contraction phase. Manipulation: Fakeouts near channel support to trap shorts. Expansion: Break of structure + trendline, aggressive rally. Distribution (Next): Likely to occur at the 149–150 zone with a sharp rejection. 🧠 Trader’s Plan – What to Look For 📈 If Bullish: Targets: 148.80 to 149.80 zone Hold until rejection signs (bearish candles, volume spikes, divergences) SL: Below recent swing low/trendline (~146.00) 📉 If Bearish (After Rejection): Watch for: Strong bearish engulfing candle or shooting star RSI/MACD divergence (not shown but suggested) Break of short-term ascending trendline Targets: Back toward 145.50 or mid-channel (dynamic) 🔖 Summary USDJPY is showing clear signs of bullish exhaustion near the upper channel resistance and major structure levels. If price respects this zone (149–150), expect a healthy corrective leg or full reversal. Multiple layers of technical evidence, including structure breaks, trendline breach, and MMC phases, are aligning for a high-probability play. This is a textbook setup for experienced traders watching key zones with proper confirmations.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
USDJPY Is Very Bearish! Short! Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 147.419. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 146.283 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
USD/JPY Symmetrical Triangle Breakout.Hello traders, Just sharing my idea of what might happen next based on the recent price movement. After a long downtrend this pair started gaining strength after April 2025 and formed a symmetrical triangle. We can clearly see the breakout on 9 July 2025. Will this breakout continue ? Well, its about to touch the 200 Ema only than we can confirm if the bullish momentum keep continue. Price might pullback. This analysis is based on chart patterns and some indicators like EMA, RSI, MACD and Fibonacci.
Long
by Sully-X
1
UJ - Long to Short📈 USDJPY 15min – ELFIEDT RSI + Reversion Signal Walkthrough 🧠 Precision Signals | High-Probability Reversals | Real Trades Visualized This chart showcases how the ELFIEDT RSI + Reversion indicator identified actionable buy and sell opportunities on the 15-minute USDJPY chart. 🟩 Buy Signals: Triple Confluence at Session Lows In the early hours, the indicator printed three consecutive UP signals around 02:30, marking a sharp reversion zone after a strong decline. This type of signal stack often suggests: Oversold conditions aligning with broader momentum shifts A high-probability reversal entry zone 🔹 Hypothetical trade: Enter long at the close of the third UP signal. 📌 Stop-loss: Just below the swing low of the signal candle 🎯 Exit: On opposing signal (or trailing stop) – delivering a clean upward move from ~145.85 to ~146.90+ 🟥 Sell Signal: Precise Top Call Around 17:15, the indicator printed a DOWN signal at the exact high of the session. This marks exhaustion after an extended rally and primes for a mean reversion short. 🔹 Hypothetical trade: Enter short at the signal close (~146.85–147.00 range) 📌 Stop-loss: Just above the session high 🎯 Exit: As price reverts to ~146.20 or based on trailing criteria This single trade could have yielded over 60 pips. ✅ What Makes This Indicator Powerful? ELFIEDT RSI + Reversion combines proprietary logic with time-tested reversal patterns. The signals are designed to be: Fast-acting, yet filtered for noise Non-repainting, and context-aware Based on unique market conditions, not just raw RSI thresholds 🎁 Want access to more advanced versions? This is just a public demo of what the ELFIEDT engine can do. For access to exclusive multi-layered strategies (including divergence, trendline breaks, multi-timeframe filters), reach out directly. 📩 DM to get whitelisted for premium tools available only to select users. #USDJPY #ReversionTrading #RSI #ForexSignals #ELFIEDT #SmartMoney #MeanReversion #TradingView #FXStrategy
Long
by ElfieTrader
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 11, 2025 USDJPYThe dollar is holding steady at 146.500 against the yen: another rise in US yields and stable demand for safe US assets following comments from the Fed are fueling appetite for the USD, while demand for the JPY remains sluggish. The tariff front exacerbates the imbalance: the White House has already imposed 25% tariffs on Japanese goods, and new ideas for “umbrella” tariffs are heightening fears of a trade war, forcing investors to flow into financing currencies. Reuters notes that the yen weakened to 146.400, recording a weekly decline of more than 1%. At the same time, the Bank of Japan is not yet ready for aggressive tightening: a decline in inflation to 1.8% y/y and weak real wage dynamics make it difficult to raise rates above 0.5%. The divergence in monetary policy and expectations for Japanese macro data (machine tool orders, industrial production) until July 14 form the fundamental basis for the pair's growth to 147.500 and above, while the risks of correction are limited to the 145.900 zone. Trading recommendation: BUY 146.500, SL 145.900, TP 147.500
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
ABCHello traders! 👋 I hope you’re having a fantastic trading week so far. Let’s take a look at the USDJPY setup unfolding right now — and it’s all about classic symmetry. 📌 Setup Breakdown We’re seeing a textbook ABC Bearish Continuation: 🔹 AB: Sharp move down 🔹 BC: Clean correction back into structure 🔹 CD (Projected): Symmetrical to AB, aiming toward the target zone Price just tapped into the PCZ (Potential Completion Zone) around the 127.2%–161.8% fib projections — showing early rejection and setting up a potential move lower. 🎯 Target Zone First Objective: 100% projection (~145.35) Extended Target: 127.2% (~144.96) With structure clear and risk above C, the symmetry is doing all the talking. 🧠 Key Factors ✅ Classic ABC symmetry ✅ Strong reaction at PCZ ✅ Risk well-defined ✅ Trend continuation potential No guesswork — just measured movement within structure. 💬 Final Thoughts If this plays out, it would be a clean continuation play in line with the overall flow. As always, let the chart guide you — not emotion. 📚 Pattern → Zone → Reaction → Follow-through Wishing everyone smooth trades ahead. Let’s keep it simple and professional.
Short
by TradeChartPatternsLikeThePros
USDJPY| 15| Liquidity Grab + Choch reaction Price formed a basic CHoCH after sweeping sell-side liquidity and creating a temporary low. A short setup was taken from a lower timeframe supply zone, aligned with bearish order flow and rejection at imbalance. 🔹 Sell-side Liquidity Sweep 🔹 CHoCH Confirmation 🔹 Rejection from Supply 🔹 Expecting bearish continuation if price holds below 146.52 Invalidation: If price closes above the LQ CHoCH zone, I’ll shift bias to longs. Until then, I’m holding the short narrative. #SMC #USDJPY #OrderFlow #LiquiditySweep #FXTradingClub #PriceAction #CHoCH
Short
by sam_trades_smc
USD/JPY: A High-Clarity Setup in a Coiling MarketFor weeks, the market has been choppy and difficult, grinding accounts down with indecisive price action. Many traders are getting stomped by the noise. This post is designed to cut through that chaos with a single, high-clarity trade idea based on a powerful fundamental story and a clean technical picture. The focus is on the USD/JPY, where a major catalyst (US CPI) is about to meet a tightly coiling chart pattern. The Fundamental Why 📰 Our entire thesis is now supported by both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The core driver is the profound monetary policy divergence between the U.S. and Japan, which manifests as a powerful Interest Rate Differential. The Core Driver: The Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-easy policy while the Fed is in a "hawkish hold," creating a significant interest rate gap of over 400 basis points that fuels the carry trade. Quantitative Validation: Our new analysis confirms this is the primary driver. We found a strong positive correlation of 0.54 between the USD/JPY exchange rate and this Interest Rate Differential. This provides a robust, data-backed reason for our long bias. This creates a fundamental chasm between the two currencies, representing a compelling long-term tailwind for USD/JPY. The Technical Picture 📊 The 4-hour chart perfectly visualizes the market's current state. The Coiled Spring: Price is consolidating in a tight symmetrical triangle. This represents a balance between buyers and sellers and a build-up of energy. A breakout is imminent. The Demand Zone: Our entry is not random. We are targeting a dip into the key demand zone between 144.50 - 144.80. This area is significant because it aligns with the 50-day moving average, a level that offers a more favorable risk/reward ratio. The Underlying Conflict: It's important to note the long-term bearish "Death Cross" on the daily chart (50 MA below 200 MA). Our thesis is that the immense fundamental pressure—now validated by our quantitative study—will be strong enough to overwhelm this lagging technical signal. The Plan & Setup 🎯 This is a conditional setup, and our analysis confirms the proposed levels are well-reasoned. We are waiting for the market to confirm our thesis before entering. The Setup: 📉 Long (Buy) USD/JPY. We are looking for price to dip into our demand zone and then break out of the triangle to the upside. Entry Zone: 👉 144.50 - 144.80. Watch for a 4H candle to show support in this area. Stop Loss: ⛔️ 144.00. A break below this level would signal that the immediate bullish structure has failed and invalidates the trade thesis. Take Profit: 🎯 149.50. This target is strategically set just below the major 150.00 psychological handle, a level where institutional orders are likely clustered. This setup provides a clear, logical plan to engage with the market's next big move. It's all signal, no noise. Trade smart, and manage your risk.
Long
by MaxellAguiran
USD/JPY Long Trade SetupBuy dips - 146.50-146.60 Stop Loss -145.80 - Below retest zone; invalidates breakout. TP-1 148.80 - Scale 50 % Pattern target / June high cluster. TP-2 150.00 - Round-number magnet, option strikes. Rationale The dollar-yen cross has snapped out of its early-summer drift and vaulted back above the 100-day simple moving average for the first time since February, reaching ¥147.19 on 9 July – a two-and-a-half-week high – as the greenback rides an upswing in U.S. yields and tariff-driven inflation fears. The technical breakout puts the familiar 148.00/150.00 band – the June swing high and the psychological round number – back in play for trend-followers over the next several sessions. Policy divergence as wide as ever Federal Reserve – higher-for-longer: Minutes from the June FOMC showed staff pushing inflation projections higher and flagging “upside risks” should tariff pass-through accelerate, reinforcing the market’s view that rate cuts will be pushed into Q4 at the earliest. Five straight sessions of rising Treasury yields have followed, lifting the 10-year to 4.45 % and widening the U.S.–Japan real-rate gap. Bank of Japan – stuck on hold: Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai told Reuters the central bank will “wait at least until March 2026” before considering another hike, as Trump’s 25 % tariff on Japanese goods (effective 1 August) clouds the export outlook and will likely force the BOJ to cut its growth forecast at the 31 July Outlook Report. With headline CPI still only just above target and real wages contracting.
Long
by TerraBullMarkets
USDJPY H4 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 147.36, a pullback support that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fib retracement. Our take profit is set at 145.99, a pullback support. The stop loss is placed at 148.70, above the 161.8% Fib extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu