USDJPY trade ideas
usd/jpy LONG SET UPUSD/JPY has shown heavy support signs on longer time frames (1D, 4hr, 1hr)
-true hr/ 1D range $145.81-151~
-RSI staggering below 50
-possible inverse head/shoulders on 1D, 4hr, 1hr
** 4hr ema supports bullish sign
100 ema above 200 ema
50 ema above 100 ema
21 ema above 50 EMA
5 ema below 100 EMA
5 ema below 13 ema
13 ema below 100 ema
price action 3 bull bar cross above 5 ema set up for long entry
entry 147.64
target 151.37+
stoploss 147.28
Is it time to buy more YEN dollars ?Look at the circled region. IF the equity market will to fall/crash/or goes into a bear market, then I would expect more people will start to snap up the YEN dollars. That means, we can expect this pair to go south........
This is a mid to longer term trade set up so lots of patience needed.
As usual, please DYODD
trade idea: aug 6 london - longhtf: 4h long bias
mtf: 30m key levels
etf: 5min break of structure enter trade
General Opinion USDJPYThe Yen intervene in my opinion is futile. The USDJPY has a trajectory of 200. I do expect the touch base on 152 but i feel that Japan is getting impatient that appears to be in the recent intervention. We also need to guard against the year end, stop loss should be tight. As the downside move has 137 at sight.
Sell USDJPYWe will try to sell USDJPY again. After waiting the whole day for bearish movement, I believe price will finally fall during NY session.
USDJPY - Bullish IdeaThe pair have formed Bullish divergence on 1H TF.
Entry can be taken after break of LH.
Sell USDJPYWe can expect USDJPY to fall deeper into the support on Tuesday. A bearish flag indicates price is ready to decline.
USDJPY (Next 24 Hours) Technical Analysis & Forecast 1. Japanese Candlestick Analysis
4H/1H: Price opened at 147.056 near resistance (147.00–147.20). Recent candles show bearish engulfing (4H) and dark cloud cover (1H), signaling rejection.
30M/15M: Shooting star at 147.056 and bearish harami indicate exhaustion. Failure to close above 147.20 confirms weakness.
5M: Three black crows pattern emerging, suggesting strong short-term bearish momentum.
Outlook: Bearish reversal likely if 147.00 breaks.
2. Harmonic Patterns
4H/1H: Bearish Gartley Pattern completing at 147.056 (D-point).
PRZ: 147.00–147.20 (confluence of 78.6% XA and 127.2% BC).
Fibonacci Ratios: AB=CD symmetry (147.00–147.20).
30M: Bullish Crab forming at 146.50, but secondary to larger bearish setup.
Outlook: High-probability short entry at 147.00–147.20 with target 146.20.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
4H: Wave 5 of impulse cycle peaked at 147.056.
Structure: Completed 5-wave sequence from 145.50 → 147.056.
Corrective Phase: ABC pullback targeting 146.20 (Wave A) and 145.80 (Wave C).
1H: Sub-wave (v) of 5 ending at 147.056. RSI divergence confirms exhaustion.
Outlook: Bearish correction to 145.80–146.20 within 24 hours.
4. Wyckoff Theory
Phase: Distribution (after markup from 145.50 → 147.056).
Signs: High volume at 147.056 (supply), upthrust above 147.20 failed.
Schematic: Phase C (markdown) initiating.
1H/30M: Spring at 147.00 failed to hold, indicating weak demand.
Outlook: Break below 147.00 triggers markdown to 146.20.
5. W.D. Gann Theory
Time Theory
24H Cycle: Key reversal windows:
UTC+4: 10:00–12:00 (resistance test), 16:00–18:00 (trend reversal).
Square of 9: 147.056 aligns with 0° angle (resistance).
Square of 9
147.056 → Resistance Angles:
0° (147.00), 90° (147.80), 180° (148.60).
Support: 45° (146.20), 315° (145.40).
Price Forecast: Reversal at 147.00 (0° angle).
Angle Theory
4H Chart: 1x1 Gann Angle (45°) from 145.50 low at 146.20. Price above angle = bullish, but overextended.
1H Chart: 2x1 Angle (63.75°) at 147.056 acting as resistance.
Squaring of Price & Time
Price Range: 145.50 → 147.056 (1.556 points).
Time Squaring: 155.6 hours from 145.50 low → 147.00 resistance (155.6 points ≈ 155.6 hours).
Harmony: 147.056 = Time Cycle Peak (24H from open).
Ranges in Harmony
Primary Range: 145.50–148.00 (250 pips).
50% Retracement: 146.75 (support).
61.8% Retracement: 146.20 (critical support).
Secondary Range: 146.20–147.20 (100 pips).
Key Levels: 146.70 (50%), 146.20 (61.8%).
Price & Time Forecasting
Price Targets:
Short-Term: 146.20 (61.8% Fib, Gann 45° angle).
Extension: 145.80 (100% of prior correction).
Time Targets:
First Reversal: 8–12 hours from open (UTC+4 12:00–16:00).
Second Reversal: 20–24 hours (UTC+4 00:00–04:00 next day).
Synthesized 24H Forecast
Bearish Scenario (High Probability)
Trigger: Break below 147.00 (confirmed by 1H/30M close).
Targets:
T1: 146.20 (61.8% Fib, Gann 45° angle).
T2: 145.80 (Wyckoff markdown, Elliott Wave C).
Timeline:
8–12H: Drop to 146.20 (UTC+4 12:00–16:00).
20–24H: Test 145.80 (UTC+4 00:00–04:00 next day).
Confirmation: RSI <50 on 1H, volume spike >20% average.
Bullish Scenario (Low Probability)
Trigger: Sustained close above 147.20 (Gann 0° angle).
Targets: 147.80 (90° angle), 148.60 (180° angle).
Timeline: 12–16 hours (if 147.20 breaks).
ENTRY USDJPYDisclaimer:
This is merely a chart-based analytical trading idea and is not considered investment advice. Please manage your risks carefully and conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
USD/JPY testing key support after Friday's dropThe USD/JPY fell sharply Friday in reaction to the weak US jobs data. But it is now testing the upside of a massive short-term support area, between 146.00-147.00. Can we see a bounce here towards 148.60 zone initially?
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
USD not coming slowBull points
Bullish on higher timeframe
Rsi div on 1h
wait for trend reversal
RRR go for 1:2
Long-term yen weakness persists due to Fed–BoJ policy divergenceLong-term yen weakness persists due to Fed–BoJ policy divergence and declining exports.
Technical analysis
USDJPY has formed a series of higher highs and higher lows, signaling the early stage of an uptrend. However, the strength of this trend remains uncertain, as each new high is followed by a pullback, indicating a fragile uptrend.
If the price holds above 147.00 and prints a higher low, it would reinforce the bullish structure, with the next upside target near the previous swing high at 151.00.
Conversely, a break below 145.70 would invalidate the bullish bias and could trigger a deeper decline toward the next support at 142.70.
Fundamental analysis
The easing of market concerns over retaliatory tariffs has recently supported a rise in USDJPY. However, weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payroll data has fueled expectations of a more dovish Fed, placing short-term downward pressure on the dollar.
Nonetheless, the BoJ’s cautious and persistently dovish stance limits the yen’s long-term support, while ongoing yen carry trade activity continues to exert downward pressure on the currency in the medium term.
Additionally, Japan’s Jun export data showed a 0.5% YoY decline, the second consecutive monthly contraction, driven primarily by reduced exports of automobiles and steel. These declines reflect continued pressure from US import tariffs, particularly the 25% on Japanese cars, which remains a downside risk for the yen.
Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
USD/JPYThis analysis is built on volume analysis, Fibonacci retracement levels, and confirmation from the Stochastic oscillator to pinpoint a precise long entry. The setup reflects a potential bullish continuation supported by strong demand and upward momentum.
Entry: 147.76 area
Stop-Loss: 147.56 area
Take-Profit: 148.55 area
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: ~1:4.5
This setup aims to capture a breakout or bounce from a key Fibonacci level, where the volume confirms buying interest and the Stochastic indicates a reversal from oversold conditions.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and apply proper risk management.
USD/JPY IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING A BEARISH TREND STRUCTUREThe USD/JPY currency pair is currently exhibiting a bearish trend structure on the daily timeframe, signaling potential further declines in the upcoming trading sessions. Price action is trading near a lower high, reinforcing the bearish outlook as sellers appear to be gaining control. This downward momentum follows the recent formation of a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern near a significant resistance level, which often serves as a strong reversal signal. The presence of this pattern near resistance suggests that bullish momentum is weakening, increasing the likelihood of a sustained bearish move.
On the downside, the pair is expected to target the 142.00 level, which could act as a key support zone. A break below this level may accelerate selling pressure, opening the door for further declines. Traders should monitor price reactions around this level for potential consolidation or continuation of the downtrend. Conversely, if the pair attempts a recovery, the 151.300 price level stands as a major resistance barrier. Any bullish retracement towards this zone could attract renewed selling interest, reinforcing the bearish bias.
The overall technical structure suggests that USD/JPY remains vulnerable to additional downside, with bearish momentum likely to persist unless key resistance levels are convincingly breached. Traders may consider short positions on rallies towards resistance or breakdowns below key support levels, while maintaining tight risk management strategies. Given the current market dynamics, the path of least resistance appears to be downward, with 142.00 as the immediate target and 151.300 acting as a critical resistance to watch for any potential trend reversals.
USDJPY a reduction in the density of long tradesWe analyzes the structure of market behavior and identifies a class of typical weak patterns: a reduction in the density of long trades, a gradual downward shift in volume, and a lack of dominant driving logic in the market. The currency pair has shown a pattern of "not deep enough to fall, not high enough to bounce" around several key psychological levels, which is a reflection of the gradual dominance of short-side funds.
We scored semantic models on multiple social media platforms and found that investors are experiencing a shift in sentiment from "neutral wait-and-see" to "pessimistic risk aversion". At the same time, the spread of short positions identified by the system has increased, implying that not only professional investors, but also some small and medium-sized traders have begun to be bearish.
The long-short momentum distribution curve shows the cumulative advantage of the short side, and the lack of substantial positive catalyst, the probability of reversal in the short term is low.
USDJPY 4Hour TF - August 3rd, 2025🟦 USDJPY 4H Analysis Bullish Idea
📅 August 3, 2025
🔹 Top-Down Trend Bias:
• Monthly – Bullish
• Weekly – Bearish
• Daily – Bullish
• 4H – Bearish
USDJPY has retraced sharply from local highs, breaking down into prior support near 147.50. Short term structure has shifted bearish, but higher timeframes still lean bullish making this a key reaction zone to monitor.
🔍 Key Zone: 147.00 – 147.50
This zone sits at a prior key support zone. How price reacts here will determine whether the pair resumes its bullish leg or continues deeper.
✅ Scenario A: Bullish Rejection (Blue Path)
1.If price holds above 147.00–147.50 and prints bullish confirmation
2.Look for continuation toward 151.50
Target: 151.50 (next clean resistance zone)
This setup aligns with the HTF bullish trend. Clean break of structure and bullish reactions are needed for confirmation.
⚠️ Scenario B: Bearish Breakdown (Orange Path)
1.If price breaks and closes below 147.500 zone
2.Watch for lower high + retest rejection
Target: 145.00 support zone
This is a lower probability counter trend continuation but is possible if price action presents the needed confirmations.
🧠 Final Notes
• Price is at a decision point, wait for Price action confirmation
• HTF bias leans bullish, but 4H structure must shift back up
• Trade with structure, not against it
USDJPY The Week Ahead Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 148.90
Resistance Level 2: 149.70
Resistance Level 3: 150.20
Support Level 1: 146.12
Support Level 2: 145.40
Support Level 3: 144.60
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
304-PIP Move on USDJPY in One Day - Trading NFP ProfitablyOn August 1st, USDJPY experienced a massive 304-pip drop after a strong impulse into the daily order block. From there, the daily order block was respected, and the retracement was induced by the USD Non-Farm Payrolls news release, leading to a sharp move down to a four-hour liquidity void, hitting the 75% Fibonacci retracement level.
This move highlights the precision of combining institutional levels with news catalysts, capturing a significant move in a short timeframe.
This is Outlier Trading Folks.
