USDJPY Wave Analysis – 11 April 2025
- USDJPY broke the support zone
- Likely to fall to support level 141.65
USDJPY currency pair recently broke the support zone between the support level 144.60 (which stopped wave 1 at the start of April, as can be seen below) and the support trendline of the daily down channel from January.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 3 – which belongs to wave (3) from the end of March.
Given the strongly bearish US dollar sentiment, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 141.65, former strong support from August and September.
USDJPY trade ideas
[_] ONENTRYONENTRY
USDJPY- ONENTRY ' 2Fib Strategy '
Timeframe: 30 Minutes
Session: London Pre-Market (00:00 - 06:30 +2GMT)
Step 1: Identify the Overnight Range
Mark the high and low of the price range between 00:00 - 06:30 (+2GMT).
Wait for a clear breakout with a candle closing above (for longs) or below (for shorts) this range.
Step 2: Apply Fibonacci Levels
After the breakout, use the Fibonacci retracement tool:
Anchor Point 1: Start at the close of the breakout candle.
Anchor Point 2: Drag to the start of the impulse move (first candle of the range).
Key level for entry: 0.5 and 0.35 retracement.
Step 3: Trade Execution
Entry: Enter on a pullback to 0.5 and 0.35 Fib level after the breakout.
Stop Loss :
Long trades: Below the low of the breakout candle wick
Short trades: Above the high of the breakout candle wick
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.0 Fib (1:1 risk-reward).
TP2: 1.25 Fib extension.
TP3: 1.6 FIB extension
TP4: 2.3 Fib extension (runner position).
Step 4: Trade Management
Move SL to breakeven when price hits TP1.
USD/JPY Bearish Trade Setup – SBR + DBD Zone Rejection📉 Trend Analysis:
🔴 Downtrend confirmed by lower highs and lower lows.
📉 Descending trendline indicates continuous bearish pressure.
🔹 Key Levels & Zones:
🔵 Resistance Zone (SBR + DBD) – 144.123 📍 (Sell Entry Point)
🟠 Stop Loss – 145.209 🚫 (Above resistance to avoid fake breakouts)
🟢 Target Point – 139.694 🎯 (Strong support area)
🏹 Expected Price Action:
🔸 Scenario:
🔺 Price moves up toward the resistance zone (🔵 SBR + DBD Zone)
🔻 Bears take control (Rejection expected)
⚡ Drop towards target at 139.694
📊 Trade Plan:
✅ Entry – Wait for rejection at 144.123 (🔵)
✅ Stop Loss – Keep at 145.209 (🛑🔺)
✅ Take Profit – Aim for 139.694 (✅🎯)
💡 Risk-Reward Ratio: Good (More reward than risk)
USD/JPY shows a bearish setupUSD/JPY shows a bearish setup, both in terms of technical patterns and fundamentals.
Technical: Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. Key levels 140-142 break below, then 135-137.
Fundamental:
Strengthening the yen - BOJ might raise rates twice, and possibly inflation will remain around 3% as recent wage hikes fuel inflation
Weakening the Dollar - falling U.S. Treasury Yields possibly to 3.5% range and below, Trump's intentions to weaken the dollar to make exports competitive and imports expensive.
Note: Last time, Trump handed over to Biden with DXY at around 90, and the current direction is towards the same.
USDJPY Bearish Flag Breakdown – Eyes on 140.11 Support ZoneUSDJPY is showing signs of a bearish continuation, following a breakdown from a rising wedge pattern. The recent strong drop confirms a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish, with price now forming a bear flag just below a key structure.
Key Technical Zones:
Current Price: 147.78
Resistance Area (Invalidation Zone): 148.11 – 151.44
Support Targets:
TP1: 142.87
TP2: 140.11
Technical Confluence & Patterns:
✅ Series of Rising Wedges followed by sharp breakdowns
✅ Bear Flag Pattern forming after recent drop
✅ Lower highs & lower lows confirming downtrend
✅ Volume spike during breakdown, low volume on pullback
Trade Outlook:
📉 Bias: Bearish below 148.11
📌 Entry Zone: On confirmation of flag breakdown
🎯 Target 1: 142.87 – Previous horizontal support
🎯 Target 2: 140.11 – Major swing support / demand zone
🛑 Invalidation: Break above 151.44 (major resistance zone)
Conclusion:
USDJPY is set up for a potential bearish continuation as it respects a textbook flag breakdown setup. A close below 147.50 would reinforce bearish pressure with further downside toward 142.87 and 140.11. Traders should monitor momentum and structure confirmation before entering positions.
Let me know if you want a short caption or video script version! 📉
USD/JPY in a well-defined downtrendUSD/JPY in a well-defined downtrend
After Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, the U.S. dollar dropped sharply. This was surprising because just days before, when he raised tariffs to 104%, the dollar reacted differently.
The price has fallen below a strong support level at 144.37, which is now acting as resistance. If USD/JPY moves back up toward this level, watch for a possible correction before the bearish trend continues.
Important support levels to watch: 142.00, 140.00, and 138.00.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Yen Gains on Recession FearsThe yen rose past 144 per dollar, a six-month high, as U.S. recession fears and a Treasury selloff boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Although Trump paused new tariffs for 90 days, total U.S. tariffs on China now stand at 145%, prompting retaliation with China imposing 84% tariffs on U.S. goods. The U.S.-Japan trade outlook remains in focus, with Japan still facing a 10% U.S. tariff but seeking better terms.
Key resistance is at 145.80, with further levels at 148.00 and 152.70. Support stands at 142.00, followed by 139.65 and 138.00.
Short! I opened two short positions yesterday. I have a few short positions that I opened last week, but I feel comfortable adding more now.
Entry - blue horizonal line in the chart.
Stop loss - red horizontal line in the chart.
Target 1, 2, 3 - black horizontal lines in the chart.
If it hit target one, I will move a stop loss to the entry position.Target 1 is the previous month low so I anticipate some correction. Once it resumes the downward movement, I plan to add position.
4H RSI provides reliable indication for pull back or trend reversal. So I will keep an eye on it.
If you are interested in knowing my reasoning for my bearish bias, please check out the linked articles I published last week.
USDJPY Will Go Lower! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 146.054.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 144.526 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USD/JPY(20250411)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The annual rate of the US CPI in March was 2.4%, a six-month low, lower than the market expectation of 2.6%. The market almost fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut in June. Trump said inflation has fallen.
Technical analysis:
Today's long-short boundary:
145.38
Support and resistance levels:
149.05
147.68
146.79
143.97
143.08
141.71
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 145.38, consider buying, the first target price is 146.79
If the price breaks through 143.97, consider selling, the first target price is 143.08
USDJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W15 D11 Y25USDJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W15 D11 Y25
Happy Friday Traders, It has been a week of sitting on capital. Being cautious, awaiting for breaks of structures at key areas and not not getting dragged into trades that do not fully present themselves. The clues have been there. The carrot has been continually dangled however as risk managers... You know how the saying goes.
We stay true to our trading plan.
We hold firm with what we know works.
We are aware of our market edge.
We know our "perfect" set up does present itself.
with that said, we are dynamic! We do of course entertain the "Imperfect" setup. We simply approach with caution.
USDJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W15 D11 Y25
15' of course, bearish start to the Friday. Perhaps we are asking a lot from UJ today but let's see if we can break 15' structure before taking a deeper look.
Bigger picture, We are in a weekly order block in the long direction so all shorts are OFF until further notice.
Best of Luck Traders.
Continue to manager your capital.
FRGNT X
USD/JPY Bearish Reversal Setup – Short from Resistance ZoneCurrent Price: ~146.252
EMA 30 (Red): ~146.573
EMA 200 (Blue): ~146.662
The price is below both EMAs, suggesting short-term bearish momentum.
📉 Trade Setup:
Entry Point: 146.551 (marked on the chart)
Stop Loss (SL): 148.514 (above resistance zone)
Take Profit (TP): 142.374 (marked as “EA TARGET POINT”)
Risk/Reward Ratio (RR): Approx. 1:2.5+
📌 Zone Analysis:
Resistance Zone: 147.6 – 148.5 (highlighted in purple)
Previous highs rejected from this level multiple times.
Sellers appear to be defending this zone strongly.
Support Zone: 142.3 – 143.0
Previous accumulation zone marked for the TP.
🧠 Bias & Interpretation:
Bearish Bias: Confirmed by:
Price rejection from resistance.
Below both EMA 30 & EMA 200.
Bearish engulfing patterns near the resistance zone.
Potential Strategy: Short from 146.551 targeting 142.374 with tight SL at 148.514.
⚠️ Watch for:
Any bullish crossover between EMA 30 and EMA 200 could shift momentum.
False breakouts above the resistance zone before actual reversal.
Key U.S. or Japan news that may cause volatility.
USDJPY H4 I Bearish ContinuationBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price could rise toward our sell entry at 144.33, which is a pullback resistance.
Our take profit will be at 1141.36, aligning with the 161.8% FIbonacci extension
The stop loss will be placed at 146.47, a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Might going up, but nothing comfirmed. My bias for LSThis is my bias for London session and friday overall.
USDJPY went down alot yesterday due today USA vs CHINA, dont think i have to explain anything.
If sir Trump doesnt do some magic tomorrow we might hit and upward trend and reverse this bearish movement.
2 lines, 1 for resistance and the other for support.
:-)