ANALYSIS ON UJOn of two things can happen.
We have a double top & double bottom (highlighted in red circles)
Only waiting for break and retest, good momentum and entry candlesticks.
USDJPY trade ideas
USDJPY Weekly SetupFor the past few weeks, this pair has been on a bearish trajectory, and I do anticipate that the momentum will continue.
The targets are;
1. 150.93 ~ This is the lows of the past 2 previous weeks.
2. 149.6 ~ This is the Weekly Bullish Order Block
3. 148.7 ~ Another sellside liquidity formed in December.
The daily and 15 minute timeframe will give us the best entry and stop loss for this pair.
USD/JPY: Facing the Abyss – Escape or Free Fall?USD/JPY is locked in a fierce battle between bulls and bears, but the "bears" are clearly in control. The price is sinking below the EMA 34 & EMA 89 on the 4H chart, sliding down a descending channel like a runaway car with no brakes. With Japan's Manufacturing PMI set for release, the market is bracing for the final blow to this currency pair.
The bulls are holding their ground, but can they withstand the 152.29 resistance, a level that has stood firm in the past? If they fail, a slide toward 148.66 will only be a matter of time!
Warning: Japan's PMI will be the ultimate trigger. If the data comes in weaker than expected, JPY could lose momentum. However, if it beats forecasts, USD/JPY might go into free fall with no safety net!
USD/JPY Technical Analysis - Reversal PointsCurrently, USD/JPY is in a bearish momentum, meaning the price is moving downward. Once this bearish move ends, a bullish reversal is expected. I have marked two key zones where a potential reversal could occur.
Potential Reversal Zones (Support Levels):
1. 146.500 - 147.500 → A critical support area where price may bounce and start a bullish move.
2. 143.500 - 144.500 → If the price continues downward, this is the next key level where a bullish reversal could happen.
Bullish Targets (Resistance Levels):
If a reversal occurs, I expect the price to reach:
1. 156.000 - 157.500 → The first major resistance level.
2. 161.500 - 162.000 → If bullish momentum strengthens, the price may push toward this level.
Conclusion :
USD/JPY is expected to remain bearish until it reaches one of the identified support zones. If a bullish signal appears at these levels, the price could then push toward the mentioned resistance zones. 🚀
USD/JPY - Possible longUSD/JPY long setting up, the DXY is looking as if it could be getting stronger on a short term basis, so this aids my idea.
We are also at an area of liquidity, and demand. If my order triggers I will trade up to 1.52
USDJPY - Tuesday Recovery , BUY zone FiboPLAN : 18 Feb, 2025
USDJPY News:
🔆The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure during the early European session on Tuesday, though downside momentum is limited as markets increasingly expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to continue raising interest rates. Additionally, the recent decline in the US-Japan yield gap, driven by growing speculation of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), helps cushion losses for the lower-yielding JPY.
Personal opinion:
🔆Short-term buying pressure at support zone helps USDJPY price recover
Analysis:
🔆support fibonaccy H1 frame
Plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉BUY USDJPY 151.600 – 151.400
❌SL: 151.100 | ✅TP: 151.900 – 152.300 – 152.600
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
USDJPY TREND DIRECTION DOWNWARD.Dear guys based on my view and fundamentals,the trend shot term have a correction wave to 153 and long term is down trend to 150.0 is the first target. SELL STOP @ 153 and TP 150.0.
Cheers.
#Forex traders,#Signals.
Trading plan: USDJPY Short position Considering the bearish sentiment in UJ today, and the successful liquidity grab at the Asian session high, we'll take a short position. Our initial target is a 1:1 risk-reward ratio, followed by a 1:2 ratio after securing some profits.
Yen Dips After Strong Japan GDP DataThe Japanese yen slipped to around 151.8 per dollar, reversing a three-day rally as the dollar gained strength after Fed officials signaled reluctance to cut rates due to inflation concerns.
Japan’s Q4 GDP grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, up from 0.4% and beating the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, GDP rose 2.8%, aligning with expectations and improving from 1.7% in Q3. These figures support a more hawkish outlook for the Bank of Japan, though uncertainty remains over a potential rate hike in March, with further increases expected later this year.
Technically, resistance is at 154.90, with further levels at 156.00 and 157.00. Support stands at 151.25, followed by 149.20 and 147.10.
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 18, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) attracted some sellers during Tuesday's Asian session, which, along with a slight rise in the US dollar (USD), helped the USD/JPY pair to stage a modest recovery from the 151.250 area or more than a one-week low. Investors welcomed US President Donald Trump's delay in imposing retaliatory tariffs. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining the safe-haven yen. However, a significant Yen depreciation still seems unlikely amid rising bets for an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), helped by the release of robust Q4 Japanese GDP data on Monday.
Meanwhile, the BoJ's hawkish expectations have led to a significant rise in Japanese government bond yields to multi-year highs. In addition, the recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields, supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), has narrowed the differential between U.S. and Japanese rates. This may further deter traders from aggressive bearish bets on the lower-yielding yen. Thus, it would be prudent to wait for strong buying before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has bottomed and positioning for further recovery.
Trading recommendation: BUY 152.000, SL 151.300, TP 153.100
USDJPY Daily BiasThe price has been on a bearish momentum for the past few days and I do anticipate that the momentum will continue.
The price had retracted towards the Volume Based Inefficiency formed around 152.2 and my sell entry position will be determined in a smaller TF (15 Minutes) in a follow up analysis on the same.
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USDJPYBelow is the fundamental analysis for USD/JPY, structured similarly to the provided model:
Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY (February 2025)
This analysis examines updated macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical factors, data from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, possible scenarios, and a favorable scenario based on current economic conditions.
1. Macroeconomic Indicators and Monetary Policy
United States
• GDP and Economic Growth:
• The US economy continues to expand at a robust pace, underpinned by strong consumer spending and a resilient labor market.
• Inflation:
• US inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, which sustains a cautious monetary policy environment.
• Fed Monetary Policy:
• In the latest FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, balancing efforts to rein in inflation while supporting continued growth.
• Unemployment and Labor Market:
• A low unemployment rate and steady wage growth reinforce the overall strength of the US labor market.
Japan
• GDP and Economic Growth:
• Japan’s economy has shown modest growth in Q4 2024, facing headwinds from demographic challenges and global economic uncertainties.
• Inflation:
• Inflation in Japan remains subdued and well below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) target, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures despite various policy measures.
• BoJ Monetary Policy:
• The BoJ continues to support the economy with an ultra-loose monetary policy, maintaining near-zero or negative interest rates to stimulate growth and counter deflation.
• Unemployment and Labor Market:
• Japan’s labor market remains stable, though structural issues limit significant wage growth and robust employment expansion.
2. Geopolitical Factors
• Global Trade and Economic Uncertainty:
• Ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties contribute to market volatility. In periods of uncertainty, the USD often benefits as a safe-haven currency, though the JPY is also traditionally viewed as a safe haven.
• US-Japan Economic Relations:
• Bilateral economic policies and trade dynamics between the US and Japan can impact the USD/JPY exchange rate, especially during periods of economic policy shifts or trade negotiations.
• Risk Sentiment:
• Shifts in global risk sentiment may drive fluctuations in USD/JPY as investors move between safe-haven assets, influencing the relative demand for both the USD and the JPY.
3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report – February 11, 2025
Non-Commercial Traders (Large Speculators):
• Long Positions:
• Short Positions:
• Net Position:
• These figures indicate the short-term bias of speculators. A net long position on USD or short on JPY would suggest an expectation of dollar strength in the near term.
Commercial Traders (Hedgers):
• Typically, these traders hedge their exposures based on longer-term fundamentals. Their positioning may indicate confidence in stability or modest shifts in USD/JPY.
Small Traders (Non-Reportable):
• Retail positioning can offer insights into broader market sentiment and sometimes serve as a contrarian signal to institutional flows.
Note: Specific numbers should be updated with the latest COT data to refine the sentiment analysis.
4. Possible Scenarios for USD/JPY
Scenario 1: USD Strength (Bullish for USD/JPY)
• Triggers:
• Continued robust performance of the US economy with a maintained or slightly hawkish stance by the Fed.
• Heightened global uncertainty that drives safe-haven flows preferentially into the USD over the JPY.
• Outcome:
• USD/JPY could rise, potentially trading above 135.
Scenario 2: Consolidation (Sideways Movement)
• Triggers:
• Mixed economic signals from both the US and Japan, with steady monetary policies on both sides.
• Outcome:
• USD/JPY may trade within a narrow range, roughly between 130 and 135.
Scenario 3: JPY Strength (Bearish for USD/JPY)
• Triggers:
• A dovish pivot by the Fed in response to slowing US growth or improved risk sentiment boosting safe-haven demand for the JPY.
• Positive economic data from Japan or an escalation in global tensions favoring the yen as a secure asset.
• Outcome:
• USD/JPY could decline, potentially moving below 130.
5. Favorable Scenario Based on Current Data
Medium-Term Favorable Scenario for USD/JPY: Consolidation with a Potential for Gradual USD Strength
Reasons:
• The robust performance of the US economy and the Fed’s cautious policy stance support near-term dollar strength.
• Japan’s continued accommodative monetary policy and structural challenges limit rapid appreciation of the JPY.
• Should global risk sentiment remain volatile, intermittent safe-haven flows could favor the USD over the JPY.
Target:
• In the coming months, USD/JPY is likely to consolidate within the range of 130 to 135, with potential upward movement toward 135 if US economic data continues to outperform expectations.
6. Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Forex market is volatile, and trading decisions should be based on individual research and analysis. Any losses incurred from the use of this analysis are solely the responsibility of the investor.
If you have any further questions or need additional insights, feel free to ask!
USD/JPY - Possible Targets & OutcomesDear Friends,
How I see it:
1W TF - Inverse Hammer + Inside Bar close
Price can potentially chase the 1W wick.
Resistance -
1) Psychological @ 154.000
Support -
2) Current support @ 151.750 = 78.60% CPI Day rally
3) Key demand @ 150.930
If this confluence is breached, next psychological target @ 149.000
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
CPI Data & Trend Rejection – Precision Trading on USDJPY🚀 High-Impact CPI Data Moves Markets – Smart Traders Win! 🚀
This trade was executed with precision using a clear downtrend, key rejection zone, and market reaction to CPI data. Combining technical confluence with fundamental catalysts, we secured a solid 1:5 RR setup.
📉 Expert analysis confirms trend strength after inflation data!
✅ Strong break of the downward trend – Clear technical confirmation of bearish momentum.
✅ CPI impact on the markets – High volatility creates golden opportunities!
🔍 Technical indicators confirmed the entry from the rejection zone (AOI).
✅ Price reacted perfectly to the analysis, securing a solid 1:5 RR!
📢 This is the power of combining technical and fundamental analysis – trading smart, not random!
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Yen Rallies as Trump Delays TariffsThe Japanese yen traded around 153 per dollar on Friday, following a 1% gain in the previous session. The yen strengthened as the dollar retreated sharply after President Trump delayed reciprocal tariffs, easing concerns over escalating trade tensions. The latest US PPI report also hinted that core PCE inflation, the Fed’s key metric due later this month, could come in lower than expected.
Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa stated that Japan would respond appropriately to any US reciprocal tariffs, while the Bank of Japan’s hawkish stance continued to support the yen. Although uncertainty remains about a potential rate hike in March, the central bank is widely expected to introduce further increases later this year.
Technically, 154.90 is the key resistance level, with further targets at 156.00 and 157.00. On the downside, 151.90 is the first major support, followed by 151.25 and 149.20 if the pair moves lower.
looking to long hereppi is good, this is first real retracement after that big pump previously.
im in on 2 orders long.
if price closes under 200ema, i'll change sl abit under that candle close under the 1hr candle below 200 ema.
Yen Below 154, Rate Cut Bets ReducedThe Japanese yen weakened past 154 per dollar, hitting its lowest level in over a week, as strong U.S. inflation data prompted traders to scale back expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Markets now anticipate just one quarter-point reduction this year. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda provided no clear indication regarding future interest rates, reaffirming the BOJ's commitment to its current policy. However, BOJ board member Naoki Tamura hinted at a possible rate hike in the latter half of fiscal 2025.
The key resistance level is at 154.90, with a break above potentially opening the door to 156.00 and 157.00. On the downside, initial support stands at 151.90, followed by 151.25 and 149.20 if the decline continues.
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 13, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today:
15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
USDJPY:
The Japanese Yen (JPY) has attracted some buying interest following the release of a stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) in Japan on Thursday, which confirms bets on further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).However, the market reaction was short-lived amid concerns over the impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, as well as upcoming retaliatory tariffs. This helped USD/JPY to hold above 154.00 during the Asian session and remain near the weekly high reached the previous day.Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that policymakers are in no hurry to cut interest rates, and US consumer inflation data released on Wednesday suggests that the Fed does not have much room to cut rates this year. This has led to an increase in US Treasury yields, resulting in a widening of the yield differential between the US and Japan and a limitation on the upside for the low-yielding Yen.However, the US Dollar (USD) has experienced difficulty attracting buyers, which may potentially discourage traders from making new bullish bets on the USD/JPY pair.
Trade recommendation: USDJPY: SELL 154.200, SL 153.500, TP 154.800
1 min = 1 setup (usdjpy)as we talked in our earlier video usdjpy is now in the sell are and a good premium
so lets take a sell and see what happens next.
R/R : 1 to 5
USDJPY NEXT MOVESell after bearish candle stick pattern, buy after bullish candle stick pattern....
Best bullish pattern , engulfing candle or green hammer
Best bearish pattern , engulfing candle or red shooting star
NOTE: IF YOU CAN'T SEE ANY OF TOP PATTERN IN THE ZONE DO NOT ENTER
Stop lost before pattern
R/R %1/%3
Trade in 5 Min Timeframe, use signals for scalping
