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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY BULLS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|LONG Hello, Friends! Previous week’s red candle means that for us the USD/JPY pair is in the downtrend. And the current movement leg was also down but the support line will be hit soon and lower BB band proximity will signal an oversold condition so we will go for a counter-trend long trade with the target being at 150.465. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Long
by EliteTradingSignals
1
ShortYesterday, I opened a short position during the Asian session and published my trade set up , but I ended up manually closing the position before the US open becauseI was a bit anxious about US GDP data.  But the main concern was the price was hovering around the major support and resistance area and I could see valid reasons to go long as well. The obvious reason for the long position was the price was forming big inverted head and shoulder patterns.    So, if the price broke above the resistance area, there would have been a great upside potential.   However, after the US session opened, I ended up opening a short position.  The reasons are written in the article I published yesterday.  Please read that article that is linked below. But another argument I would like to add for the bear scenario is this. In Nov-Dec 2024, we had a very similar set up ( dark blue rectangular box in the chart.)   At the time, the price was also forming the inverted head and shoulder at the same support/resistance zone.  Once it broke the resistance line, it took off to the upside.   And that same scenario can unfold this time as well. However, what is different between Dec 2024 period and the current period are: 1) VWAP (volume weighted average price) drawn from the major low in 24th Sept  was working as support but this time the same VWAP is working as resistance.   2) MACD and RSI were moving from bear zone to the bull zone, but this time they are moving to the downside from the bull zone.   Therefore, I think the momentum is to the downside this time. The only time will tell. My current short position is quite small. However, once the direction becomes more clear I plan to add more position because the move to the downside from here can be quite significant.
Short
by EbonyFalcon
ShortI had a few failed short trades in the last few weeks for this pair.    My overall bias is bearish and I must admit having a strong bias cost me.  I was too eager to execute a trade and I ended up front running and instead of reacting to the price action.   This morning, I opened two short positions (1 position size divided into two) for USDJPY . Trade set up: Entry: 150.945Stop Loss: 151.458 Target 1: 149.680 (blue horizontal line - previous week open price, Fair value gap and order block in 4H) Target 2:  148.306 (Previous week low, fair value gap )  Reasons for short entry: Weekly: The price had broken and closed below the previous low at 148.65.  It went up again but it is respecting FVG at 150.50 zone. RSI is starting to enter the bear territory. Daily: The price is still below EMA 200 and is respecting FVG at 150.50 zone. RSI line is still in the bear zone.  4H: The price dropped and closed below the ascending trendline.   I like the candlestick formations at the FVG - very small candles with upper wicks followed by a large engulfing candle.  (1H is better to see the price movement). Sorry, I forgot the name of this formation! RSI is presenting negative divergence. Ideally, it is better to wait for the price to drop, retest and close below 200EMA in 4H and 4H RSI to dive into bear territory.    However, I felt there are enough confluences to support my bias and I like the risk:reward for this set up.   Therefore, I decided to open a short position, but my position size is small. Please let me know what you think.  
Short
by EbonyFalcon
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 28, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 14:30 EET. USD - Core PCE Price Index USDJPY: On Friday, during the Asian session, the Japanese yen (JPY) fell to a near four-week low against its US counterpart. This was due to concerns that US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs could affect key domestic exports. However, the release of robust consumer inflation data from Tokyo provided a welcome respite for those anticipating a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), potentially paving the way for further interest rate hikes. The BoJ's opinion summary also indicates that a rate hike remains a possibility should the economy and prices align with forecasts. Additionally, the prevailing risk-off environment, triggered by Trump's imposition of auto tariffs late Wednesday, has served to support the safe-haven yen, leading to a fall in the USD/JPY pair below 151.00 in the last hour. However, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) dip buying could support the currency pair and help limit further losses. Additionally, traders may adopt a wait-and-see approach, preferring to observe the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index to ascertain the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cutting intentions. Trade recommendation: BUY 151.000, SL 150.400, TP 151.750
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/JPY Trend Coming Up - Further Upward?🔔🔔🔔 USD/JPY news: ➡️ Hawkish bets on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have been fueled by expectations of further wage hikes. Last week, Japan’s largest labor union group, Rengo, reported that companies had agreed to a 5.4% wage increase this year. ➡️ Although investors have supported the USD against the JPY, the greenback has underperformed against other currencies following President Donald Trump’s implementation of a 25% tariff on imported automobiles to the U.S., set to take effect on April 2. ➡️ Higher tariffs will mainly burden American importers, who are likely to pass the costs onto consumers. Such a scenario could drive inflation in the U.S. economy, eroding household purchasing power. ➡️ Fears of resurging inflationary pressures and a slowdown in U.S. economic growth has prompted Federal Reserve officials to take a cautious stance. Personal opinion: ➡️ Japan is affected by US auto tariffs because its economy relies heavily on auto exports. Higher tariffs make Japanese cars more expensive in the US, reducing demand, reducing sales for automakers and potentially leading to job losses and slowing economic growth. So it makes sense for the JPY to weaken relative to the USD ➡️Analyze based on important resistance - support and Fibonacci levels combined with trend lines and EMA to come up with a suitable strategy Plan: 🔆 Price Zone Setup: 👉Buy USD/JPY 150.67- 150.55 ❌SL: 1.50.20 | ✅TP: 151.10 – 151.60– 151.95 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Long
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
USD/JPY Technical Analysis (1-Hour Timeframe)Market Overview: Trend: Bullish Divergence: Bearish Continuation Pattern: Bullish Reversal Pattern: None Harmonics: AB=CD Formation Trade Plan: You are taking a short-term long entry from point B to D based on the bullish trend continuation. A Buy Stop order is placed at 150.963, with a Stop Loss at 150.001 and Take Profit at 151.925 (Potential Reversal Zone). Scenario Analysis: Current Approach: Entering a buy trade from B to D, following the bullish trend. Watching price action closely as it reaches the Potential Reversal Zone (151.925). Next Steps: If the price continues to break higher above 151.925, you will reanalyze the chart for further trend continuation opportunities. If the price shows reversal signs at the Potential Reversal Zone, you will look for a short (sell) setup, aligning with the bearish divergence and reversal pattern (AB=CD). Conclusion: For now, you are riding the bullish trend from B to D while keeping an eye on 151.925 as a key resistance level. If a reversal occurs at this level, you will evaluate a sell trade setup in the downtrend. This approach ensures a disciplined trading strategy, adapting to market conditions.
by Asif_Iqbal_chaudhary
Yen Steady Near 150.7 as Dollar StrengthensThe Japanese yen hovered near 150.7 per dollar on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened. Concerns grew over Japan’s exports following Trump’s proposed tariffs on autos and pharmaceuticals. BOJ minutes showed officials remain open to future rate hikes, with one member suggesting a 1% rate by late FY2025. The central bank kept rates steady at 0.5% last week, citing global uncertainties. Key resistance is at 151.70, with further levels at 152.70 and 154.00. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
USD/JPY Buy Setup – Inverted Head & Shoulders chart pattern📌 **USD/JPY Buy Setup – Inverted Head & Shoulders** 📌 🔹 **Pattern:** 📈 **Inverted Head & Shoulders** (Bullish Reversal Signal) 🔹 **Entry Point:** ✅ **150.500** (Neckline breakout confirmation recommended) 🔹 **Target:** 🎯 **153.800** (Measured move projection from pattern breakout) 🔹 **Stop Loss:** 🔍 Ideally **below 149.800** (Neckline retest zone or recent swing low) ### 📊 **Analysis & Risk Management:** ✅ **Confluence Factors:** - **Bullish Chart Pattern:** Inverted H&S suggests trend reversal. - **DXY Strength:** If USD remains strong, it supports this setup. - **Yield Differentials:** Watch US-Japan bond yields, as rising US yields boost USD/JPY. ✅ **Risk-Reward Ratio:** ~ **1:5**, making it a high-probability trade. ✅ **Trade Management:** - If price retests **150.500** after breakout, it could be a strong entry confirmation. - Secure profits gradually (e.g., **TP1: 152.000**, **TP2: 153.000**, **TP3: 153.800**). - Use **trailing stop-loss** to lock in gains as price moves higher. 🚨 **Market Caution:** 📅 **Fundamental Watch:** Monitor key news such as: - **BoJ Policy Decisions** (Any intervention risk if JPY weakens too much) - **US Economic Data** (CPI, NFP, Fed Statements) - **Global Risk Sentiment** (If risk-off, JPY may strengthen unexpectedly) 🔥 **Final Tip:** Confirm entry with bullish candle patterns & volume spike on breakout for added confidence. Happy Trading! 🚀📈💰
Long
by TradingStar090
Japan's Tariff Worries and BOJ Rate Hike HintsThe Japanese yen remained weak around 150.7 per dollar on Tuesday, near a three-week low, as the U.S. dollar gained strength. Trump's plan to impose tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals, and other sectors raised concerns for Japan’s export-driven economy. BOJ minutes from January showed officials remain open to future rate hikes depending on wage and inflation trends, with one member suggesting a possible increase to 1% in late fiscal 2025. Still, the BOJ kept rates steady at 0.5% last week, maintaining a cautious stance with global tensions. Key resistance is at 151.70, with further levels at 152.70 and 154.00. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
JPY/USD 4H Chart Analysis – Head & Shoulders BreakdownThis JPY/USD 4-hour chart showcases a Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern, a well-known bearish reversal pattern signaling a potential downtrend after an extended bullish run. The breakdown of the neckline support and the trendline breakout are key confirmations of a shift in momentum, making this a high-probability trading setup. 📌 1️⃣ Understanding the Head & Shoulders Pattern The Head & Shoulders pattern is a classic reversal structure that forms after a prolonged uptrend. It consists of three peaks: Left Shoulder: The first peak forms as buyers push the price higher, followed by a pullback. Head: The price rallies again, making a higher peak, but sellers start to gain strength, causing another pullback. Right Shoulder: A lower high is formed as buying pressure weakens, signaling exhaustion of the uptrend. This pattern is significant because it suggests that bullish momentum is fading and that a potential trend reversal is underway. 📌 2️⃣ Trendline Breakout – Bearish Confirmation Before the formation of the Head & Shoulders, the market was in a strong uptrend, supported by a rising trendline (dashed black line). The price respected this trendline multiple times, acting as dynamic support. However, after the right shoulder formation, the price broke below the trendline, indicating that selling pressure is increasing. A trendline breakout after a reversal pattern strengthens the bearish case, increasing the likelihood of further downside movement. 📌 3️⃣ Key Resistance & Support Levels Understanding the key price levels is essential for determining trade entries, stop-loss placements, and target zones. 📍 Resistance Zone (Stop-Loss Area): 0.006776 is the recent high and a key resistance level where sellers previously stepped in. If the price reclaims this level, the bearish thesis could be invalidated, making it a logical place to set a stop-loss. This level also aligns with the Head of the pattern, further reinforcing it as a strong supply zone. 📍 Support Level (Neckline Zone): The neckline (horizontal support zone) was previously holding as support but has now been broken. If the price pulls back to this area and rejects it, it could serve as a strong entry point for short trades. A confirmed retest of the neckline would validate the breakdown, increasing the likelihood of a further decline. 📍 Bearish Target (Profit-Taking Zone): The price is projected to decline toward 0.006457, which is derived by measuring the height of the Head & Shoulders pattern and projecting it downward. This level also coincides with historical support, making it a strong take-profit area. If bearish momentum continues, further downside targets may come into play. 📌 4️⃣ Trading Plan – Execution Strategy This setup provides a clear structure for planning a high-probability short trade. ✅ Entry Strategy: Option 1 (Aggressive Entry): Enter a short trade immediately after the breakdown of the neckline. Option 2 (Conservative Entry): Wait for a retest of the broken neckline as resistance before entering a short position. 🚀 Stop-Loss Placement: Above 0.006776 (recent resistance & Head of the pattern). Ensures protection from a potential false breakout. 🎯 Take-Profit Strategy: First target: 0.006457 (measured move of the pattern). Extended target: Lower psychological support if momentum continues downward. 📌 5️⃣ Market Sentiment & Additional Considerations While this technical setup suggests a bearish outlook, traders should also consider: 🔸 Fundamental Factors: Economic data releases, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical events can impact market sentiment. 🔸 Volume Confirmation: A high-volume breakout strengthens the bearish bias, whereas weak volume may indicate a potential fake-out. 🔸 RSI & Momentum Indicators: Checking if the RSI is in overbought territory or showing bearish divergence can provide further confidence in the setup. 🔸 Psychological Levels: Traders should watch for price reactions near key round numbers, as these often act as support/resistance. 📌 6️⃣ Conclusion – Why This Setup is High Probability This JPY/USD 4H chart presents a well-defined Head & Shoulders pattern, a classic reversal setup that indicates a shift from bullish to bearish momentum. The trendline breakout and neckline breach reinforce the bearish bias, making this a high-probability short trade opportunity. 💡 Key Takeaways: ✅ A confirmed trendline break + H&S pattern indicates a bearish reversal. ✅ Watch for a neckline retest as a potential short entry. ✅ Bearish target: 0.006457 with stop-loss above 0.006776. ✅ Consider fundamental factors & market sentiment for additional confirmation. 🔽 Overall Bias: Bearish 📉 #JPYUSD #ForexTrading #HeadAndShoulders #PriceAction #TradingSetup #TrendReversal
Short
by GoldMasterTrades