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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY 4H Chart Analysis – Potential Breakdown or Reversal **USD/JPY 4H Chart Analysis – Potential Breakdown or Reversal** **Technical Summary:** The chart shows USD/JPY trading within a rising channel, with recent price action indicating a possible bearish shift. Liquidity above a recent high has been taken, followed by a **change of character (CHoCH)** suggesting potential bearish intent. **Key Highlights:** * **Liquidity Grab:** Price swept prior highs, likely triggering buy-side liquidity. * **CHoCH Identified:** Structure broke to the downside, indicating a bearish shift in market sentiment. * **Critical Level:** A **4H close below 144.802** is crucial for confirmation of further downside movement. * **Channel Support:** Price is currently testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel. * **Scenarios:** * **Bullish Case:** If the price respects the channel and pushes higher, targets near **150.000** could come into play. * **Bearish Case:** A confirmed breakdown below **144.802** opens the path toward the **139.000 demand zone**. **Outlook:** * Monitor for 4H candle close below 144.802 for bearish confirmation. * Alternatively, bullish continuation is valid if support holds and structure shifts upward again. **Disclaimer:** This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
by Ttrade-With-Logic
Short I opened a short position yesterday at the price of 147.50.    Currently the price is 146.18.  The price has dropped quite a bit but I think it still has a good short entry opportunity with a reasonable risk reward. Reasons for short trade: The price has reached the major support level around 149 on the 22nd April.   Since then, the price has moved up to the fair value gap area between 149.2 and 148.2 (blue rectangular box), and also the order block.    That area is also the Fib 0786 area.  I look at Fib 0.786 as the last line of defence and it is usually a hard line to break. The price hit the area and started to move to the downside.  Momentum indicators are still in the bull territory but the lines have crossed and clearly moving to the downside.   My macro bias for USD is bearish and the current price set up support my bias. The risk reward is good enough for me to enter. My trade set up: Entry: 147.51Stop: 148.95Target: 142.478 (Fib 0.236) Risk:Reward= 1:3.5 Currently the price is 146.17.  It just broked below Fib 0.618.     Entry now can give you 1:1.5 risk reward.  
Short
by EbonyFalcon
UPDATED ANALYSIS ON USD/JPYUSD/JPY 4H - AS you can see price has recently come to clear a FVG that was left over from the last impulsive wave that drove price lower. We have now seen price correct itself trading us up and into this area. I now want to see price break down, confirming that the corrective wave trading us into this inefficiency has finished and a new bearish wave trading us lower is ready be printed. We will get the confirmation we need one price has broken structure more fractally to the downside. I have marked out the last protected low within the corrective wave. Once we have a break here we have our confirmation. This is because within bullish structure we break highs and protect lows, so by breaking a low we are not longer following the laws of bullishness but rather following the laws of bearishness, confirming this next bearish impulse.
Short
by Lukegforex
USD/JPY Rejected at Trend ResistanceUSD/JPY extended more than 6.2% off the yearly low with price registering an intraday high at 148.65 on Monday before reversing lower. The focus now shifts back to this turn from downtrend resistance with initial support now in view. A closer look at Japanese Yen price action shows USD/JPY trading within the confines of embedded ascending pitchfork extending off the lows. The lower parallel now converge on near-term support at the May opening-range high (ORH) at 145.92 and the 38.2% retracement of the April advance / objective weekly open at 145.30/37 - a break / close below this slope would suggest a more significant high was registered this week / threaten resumption of them broader downtrend. Subsequent support objectives seen at the May open / 61.8% retracement at 143.05/24 with the yearly low-day close (LDC) at 141.56 . Initial resistance is eyed along-the median-line and is backed by key levels at 148.67/74 and the March high-day close (HDC) / 200 day moving average near 149.50/60 - a breach / close above this region is ultimately needed to validate a breakout of the yearly downtrend / suggest a larger trend reversal is underway. The first major technical consideration in the event of a breakout is eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range / 2022 & 2023 highs at 151.63/94 - look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Bottom line: USD/JPY has responded to confluent downtrend resistance with the pullback now approaching initial support and the first test for the bulls. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the lower parallel IF price is heading for a breakout here with a close above the 200-day moving average needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. -MB
by FOREXcom
USD/JPY Multi-Timeframe Trading Plan – Week AheadUSD/JPY is trending higher short-term but remains below key resistance on the daily chart. The daily timeframe shows an inverted head-and-shoulders forming, with a neckline at 152. Until that breaks, rallies into 148–150 are likely to fade. The 1-hour chart shows a rising wedge from 142 to 148.5 with support around 145.0. Momentum is slowing, warning of potential exhaustion near 148. On the 15-minute chart, recent price action shows a bull flag and a double bottom, offering buy zones at 146.10–146.30. The plan for early week is to long dips to this zone, targeting 146.80–147.20 with stops below 145.90. Watch for fades around 147.50–148.00 mid-week. A break above 148.00 opens room to 150.00; below 145.00, momentum shifts bearish. Strategy: Buy pullbacks early in the week; fade rallies near 148 mid-week. Flip long above 148.00 or short below 145.00. Use tight stops and manage risk per trade.
by BlackCandleTrader
USD/JPY market structure with a clear bullish bias Technical Analysis Patterns: A harmonic pattern is drawn with labeled points X, A, B, C, D forming what appears to be a Gartley or Bat pattern. Fibonacci ratios (e.g., 0.618, 0.786, 1.618) are marked, typically used to validate harmonic patterns. Zones: Resistance Zone: A marked rectangular area around the 148.500 to 149.000 range. Support Zone: Labeled at the bottom around the 143.500 level. BOS (Break of Structure): Identified near the 144.500 level indicating a key bullish breakout. Trade Setup: Entry: Around 147.500 – 148.000 (current price 147.971 suggests it is within or near the entry zone). Target: Marked around 151.000. Stop Loss: Implied to be below the entry box, possibly near 146.000 or just above. Risk-to-Reward Ratio is favorable, with a large green “Target” box and a smaller red zone below (Stop Loss). Trend Analysis: A strong bullish impulse from point C to D. Market structure suggests a bullish continuation if resistance is broken. Indicators/Tools: Price measurement tools, Fibonacci levels, and drawing tools from TradingView’s toolbar are used. Conclusion: The chart depicts a bullish harmonic pattern with a potential long trade setup aiming for a breakout above resistance. The analysis includes well-marked support/resistance, entry/exit zones, and market structure with a clear bullish bias. market structure with a clear bullish bias .
Long
by Johnson67
USDJPY Wave Analysis – 12 May 2025- USDJPY broke the resistance area - Likely to rise to resistance level 150.00 USDJPY currency pair continues to rise strongly inside the c-wave, which recently broke the resistance area between the resistance level 146.00 (top of the previous wave a), 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from March and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from January. The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the minor c-wave of the active ABC correction (2) from the end of April. USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 150.00 (target price for the completion of the active c-wave).
Long
by FxProGlobal
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which ofThe MACD indicator shows that the DIFF line has formed a golden cross with the DEA line, and the red histogram has continuously expanded, indicating that the upward trend has been established. At the same time, the RSI indicator has rebounded from the oversold area to the level of 59.777, suggesting that there is still room for the exchange rate to rise. It is worth noting that the CCI indicator has broken through the 200 level, implying that there is a possibility of a short-term technical correction. In terms of volatility analysis, the Bollinger Bands have widened. The upper band is at 147.845 and the lower band is at 139.942, indicating that market volatility is increasing. Currently, the exchange rate is moving within an upward-sloping triangular consolidation pattern. 150 constitutes an important resistance level in the near term, while 146 forms a key support level. In the short term, if the exchange rate can effectively hold above the 148 mark, it will further confirm the continuation of the upward trend. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Long
by HilaryBloomer
USD/JPYUSD/JPY Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe Current Situation: The USD/JPY pair recently tested the 141.38 level (a key price-time zone) with a false breakout on April 21, followed by a strong rebound. This bounce held the price above the support zone and triggered a bullish move, pushing the price above the 144.81–144.87 resistance area and closing the week with a potential continuation candle to the upside. Additional Insight: This bullish phase may represent a retracement of the bearish impulse that originated from the 149.84–149.63 area, which is marked with the green arrow on the chart. The broader trend remains bearish, so this could be a technical pullback before the downtrend potentially resumes. Key Levels to Watch: Support: 144.81 / 144.87 → 142.20 → 141.38 Resistance / Target Zone: 149.63–149.84 (crucial area for reassessment) Lower Bearish Targets (if support breaks): 136.81 and 132.80 Trading Conclusion: In this context, a continued move to the upside toward the 149.63–149.84 area is expected, but it will be crucial to closely observe price behavior at those levels. Conversely, if the 141.38 support is breached, we may see a resumption of the broader downtrend with significantly lower targets. ⚠️ Note: The overall market structure remains bearish, meaning this current rally is likely a corrective phase. Caution and confirmation are key before taking action.
by Alessiocalabretta