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USDJPY trade ideas

#USDJPY 2HUSDJPY (2H Timeframe) Analysis Market Structure: The price is trading within a channel pattern, respecting both support and resistance levels. Currently, it is near the upper boundary of the channel, indicating possible resistance. Forecast: Wait for a retest of the channel resistance before considering a sell position, as confirmation is required to validate a potential move downward. Key Levels to Watch: Entry Zone: After a retest and rejection from the upper boundary of the channel. Risk Management: Stop Loss: Placed above the channel resistance or recent swing high. Take Profit: Target the midline or lower boundary of the channel for potential downside movement. Market Sentiment: The setup suggests a cautious bearish bias, but confirmation signals are needed before executing a trade.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 7, 2024 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is fluctuating near familiar levels, having started the new trading week almost unchanged. The pair is near recent highs as investors await decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Both central banks are expected to make new moves on interest rates in 2025, with the Fed targeting a rate cut and the BoJ beginning to raise rates. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda recently reiterated the BOJ's commitment to achieving a neutral rate. What makes the Bank of Japan unique among the other major central banks in the developed world is its longstanding efforts to stimulate inflation rather than curb it. Because the Bank of Japan's discount rates are well below the global average, the Japanese yen has had a tough turnaround in 2024 as the rate differential has widened. Since the natural rate of interest is likely much higher than current BoJ discount rates, BoJ Governor Ueda and company will have to start adjusting rates upward at some point, or they risk sending the Japanese economy into another tailspin. Wednesday will bring the latest Fed meeting minutes down on traders, but the key document this week will be Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. As half of the Fed's mandate includes full employment, markets will be watching this week's US employment data with heightened interest. Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 156.00, trading mainly with Sell orders
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/JPY H4 | Potential bullish bounceUSD/JPY is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 156.60 which is a swing-low support. Stop loss is at 155.80 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 158.41 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
1
Elliott Wave View: USDJPY Looking to End Wave 5Short Term Elliott Wave view in USDJPY suggests rally from 9.16.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves diagonal. Up from 9.16.2024 low, wave (1) ended at 156.74 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 148.64 as 1 hour chart below shows. Pair resumed rally higher in wave (3) with internal subdivision as an impulse. Up from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 152.86 and dips in wave 2 ended at 151.79. Pair resumed higher in wave 3 towards 157.92 and pullback in wave 4 ended at 155.94. Final leg wave 5 ended at 158.04 which completed wave (3) in higher degree. Pullback in wave (4) unfolded as a flat structure. Down from wave (3), wave A ended at 157.34 and wave B ended at 158.07. Wave C lower ended at 156 which completed wave (4) in higher degree. Pair has resumed higher in wave (5). Up from wave (4), wave 1 ended at 157.78 and dips in wave 2 ended at 156.23. Near term, as far as pullback stays above wave (4) low at 156, and more importantly above 148.6 low, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
by Elliottwave-Forecast
USDJPY InsightHello, subscribers! It's great to see you all. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe! Key Points: - The Washington Post reported, citing anonymous sources, that Trump’s aides are reviewing a universal tariff plan targeting imports critical to U.S. national and economic security. However, Trump denied the report on Truth Social, criticizing the Washington Post. - Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve Governor, stated that since September, the U.S. labor market has shown some resilience, but inflation remains stickier than expected. She suggested it would be reasonable to lower interest rates more gradually this year. - The market has begun speculating that Trump might abandon the universal tariff policy in favor of selective tariffs once in office. Key Economic Events This Week: + January 7: Eurozone December Consumer Price Index, U.S. December ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, U.S. November JOLTS Job Openings + January 8: U.S. December ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, FOMC Meeting Minutes + January 10: U.S. December Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate USD/JPY Chart Analysis: The 158 level, which had been acting as a strong resistance zone, has recently been breached. This significantly increases the likelihood of further upward movement for USD/JPY. Based on the current chart, the pair is expected to form a peak in the 161-162 range. If there are no major variables, it is anticipated to retreat to around the 157 level after reaching the peak. If the trend unexpectedly reverses to the downside, we will quickly revise our strategy.
Long
by shawntime_academy
USD_JPY (125 Pips)The USD/JPY pair has been exhibiting significant strength recently, hitting a 6-month high last week and continuing to trade near elevated levels. Based on yesterday's range (Open 157.151, High 157.955, Low 156.235, Close 157.640), the pair remains in a bullish trend. Following is my analysis of the fundamental and technical factors that may influence its movement over the next three days. Fundamental Analysis The USD/JPY pair's recent strength can be attributed to several key factors: Divergent Monetary Policies: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its accommodative monetary policy, while the Federal Reserve has been more hawkish. Despite expectations for the BoJ to normalize its policy in 2024, this didn't materialize as anticipated. The persistent policy divergence continues to support the USD/JPY pair. Yield Differentials: The significant gap between US and Japanese bond yields remains a crucial driver for USD/JPY. As of late 2024, the 10-year US bond yield stood at 4.5%, substantially higher than Japan's. This yield differential attracts carry trades, supporting the pair's upward momentum. Economic Data: Upcoming US labor market data, scheduled for release on Friday, January 10, could significantly impact the pair's movement. Strong US economic data could further strengthen the USD. Potential Intervention: With USD/JPY approaching the 157.00-160.00 range, there's increased speculation about potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen. This factor could introduce volatility in the coming days. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair shows a strong bullish trend, but there are signs of potential consolidation or correction: Resistance Levels: The pair is currently facing significant resistance in the 157.72-158.32 range. A break above 158.32 could lead to further gains, potentially targeting the multi-decade high of 161.95. Support Levels: Key support levels to watch include 156.00 and 155.00, which are currently the most important short-term support levels. Momentum Indicators: The Marlin oscillator is pointing downward on the daily timeframe, suggesting that any price rise above 158.32 could be a false breakout. However, on the H4 timeframe, the Marlin oscillator has entered positive territory, indicating potential for further growth. Trend Analysis: The pair remains in a bullish trend, as evidenced by a rising trend line and key moving averages below the price. However, a decisive break below the bullish trend line that has been in place since September could signal the start of a deeper correction. Outlook for the Next Three Days Given the current technical and fundamental factors, the USD/JPY pair is likely to continue its consolidation near current levels in the short term. The 157.72-158.32 range appears to be a crucial battleground. A break above this range could see the pair testing higher levels, potentially towards 159.45 and even 161.95. However, traders should be cautious of potential intervention by Japanese authorities if the pair approaches the 160.00 level. Additionally, the upcoming US labor market data could introduce volatility. In conclusion, while the overall trend remains bullish, the risk of a correction or consolidation is increasing. Traders should closely monitor key technical levels and upcoming economic data for potential trade opportunities in the coming days.
Long
by NYHTSTAR
USDJPY 4hWe got an aggresive pullback during the trading hours probably due to news, I'm still long for this pair we are 4.99% up on the monthly period and I don't sell on retracements. If the price will broke the supply zone I'll probably rebuy on the second orderblock level. If that one fails too I'm gonna look for sells thinking we are on a ranging or reversal market. My final target for this trade remains the daily key level on 161.800. My strategy is mostly based on how the price is reacting on my key levels; not on win rates but R:R setups; I think we got a good setup for this one.
Long
by WBEclipse
The Macroeconomic Impact of the Latest Inflation Report on USDIntroduction: Inflation data has always been a crucial driver of currency movements, and the upcoming inflation report is no exception. With USD/JPY currently at a pivotal point, traders are closely watching how the figures will influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory and market sentiment. Current Market Dynamics: The USD/JPY pair has been consolidating within a tight range between and , reflecting traders' caution ahead of the release. Expectations of could push the pair out of its current range. Scenarios and Key Levels: Higher-than-expected inflation: 1.Potential breakout above . Target level: . 2.Lower-than-expected inflation: Retest of and potential slide toward . 3.Neutral inflation figures: Likely continuation of range-bound trading between and . Conclusion and Community Call-to-Action: What are your thoughts on the upcoming inflation report? Will it trigger a significant move in USD/JPY, or will the pair remain range-bound? Share your analyses and charts in the comments below! 👇
by Safaric