4.4R USDJPY LongExpecting a move up on USDJPY, but this is counter to the larger trend.
This makes it higher risk.
I have a 40% chance of success.
USDJPY trade ideas
NFP 12.5.24It’s hard to see but I believe that’s an inverse on USDJPY 1HR. I had to go to JPYUSD to see if it actually looked like a head and shoulder.
Looks like it can go back to 150.8 maybe 151.1
But today is NFP so I’m not sure if it can catapult with such news ahead. Here’s some insight.
The US jobs market suffered a setback last month with the worst NFP reading in nearly four years, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimating that the US economy created just 12K net new jobs in October. Thankfully heading into this month’s NFP reading, economists are feeling much more optimistic on the outlook for the labor market:
NFP Forecast
As regular readers know, we focus on four historically reliable leading indicators to help handicap each month’s NFP report:
The ISM Manufacturing PMI Employment component rose to 48.1 from 44.4 last month.
The ISM Services PMI Employment component dropped to 52.1 from 56.0 last month.
The ADP Employment report showed 146K net new jobs, down from the downwardly-revised 184K reading last month.
Finally, the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell to an historically strong 218K from 236K last month.
Weighing the data and our internal models, the leading indicators point to a roughly as-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 180K-240K range, albeit with a big band of uncertainty given the current global backdrop.
Regardless, the month-to-month fluctuations in this report are notoriously difficult to predict, so we wouldn’t put too much stock into any forecasts (including ours). As always, the other aspects of the release, prominently including the closely-watched average hourly earnings figure which came in at 0.4% m/m in the most recent NFP report.
source: www.cityindex.com
USDJPY: My Trading Perspective (setup)FX:USDJPY : Key Indices Supporting My Trading Perspective
Index and Volume Analysis:
- For this trade, the TVC:DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) plays a critical role. It’s showing continued signs of softening, which aligns with my sell setup for USD/JPY.
- Broader risk sentiment in equity markets is also mixed, with the S&P 500 holding up but without strong upward momentum, which supports the yen’s safe-haven appeal in my analysis.
Key Companies and Influencing Factors:
- The performance of U.S. equities, particularly tech and consumer sectors, signals cautious optimism, but not enough to offset the dollar’s broader weakness.
- On the Japanese side, the SMI reflects stable conditions, giving me confidence that external forces (e.g., global risk sentiment) will favour this trade direction.
Possible Market Impacts:
- My sell setup aligns well with the current environment. A move toward **TP1 (149.057)** is likely if equities fail to gain strong traction and the DXY continues to weaken.
- A push toward **TP2 (148.534)** could occur if risk-off sentiment strengthens globally, amplifying demand for the yen.
- My stop loss at **150.796** is in place to manage risk in case of unexpected dollar rebounds or lack of yen strengthening.
Entry, SL, and TPs:
- Entry: 150.345
- Stop Loss (SL): 150.796
- Take Profit 1 (TP1): 149.057
- Take Profit 2 (TP2): 148.534
*“When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, Just Ride the Wave!”*
**Disclaimer:**
*Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Traders should conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.*
USDJPY NFP PlansI see this and cannot unsee it. I believe we will see a pump in the pair for the next few hours and a further sell off from around 151.2. The current bullish bias is based on the inverse head and shoulders patter.
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POTENTIAL USDJPY REVERSAL TRADE...SWING TRADE OPPORTUNITYHello everyone! Hope you guys are all seriously doing amazing...just wanted to come on here and make a post for potential I see on USDJPY! So let's dive right in!
Here is the breakdown for what I see and what I will be using each timeframe for with this potential setup!
Weekly Timeframe (1W): **coming off multi-decade highs/ all time highs from July of 2024
**previous weekly candle was a very strong bearish engulfing (showing us potential reversal/continuation)
Daily Timeframe (1D): **daily broke structure and breach lows around 151.400
**now in a bearish trend
**waiting for pullback into supply zone/ with fib confluence
4 Hour (hourly) Timeframe (4H: **strong momentum from the sellers
**watching buyer momentum coming back into supply
**look to see how price forms when coming into supply for potential shorts
ALRIGHT guys! That is my breakdown for USDJPY nice and simple. Very straight forward potential higher timeframe reversal trade here especially now with the daily forming that lower lower in price with strong sellers! Big clues!
Hope you all enjoyed please boost this post and follow my page for more high quality content! Have a blessed one!
Cheers
Called the upside movement!USD/JPY will continue to move up in my opinion but we will see it come to resistance at the 150 level. It could break through for a more upside trend. Watch for the break out!
USDJPY 15/30m Short-term bullish hedgeUSDJPY is oversold on 4 separate strength index's, All 3 components of MACD are sub-.02. Price has found resistance and is showing reversal signs at a recent historical support. Trade to previous high but checkpoints need to be met e.g. break of triangle structure & close above 50 & 100 MA.
Fundamentals are clear & daily price action suggests a bullish move on the short term. Entry is an engulfing candle on the 15m.
USDJPY BUY UPDATE!!!!!1:1 profit has been achieved now. Let's aim for 1:2
Secure half of the profits and set the other half at breakeven
USDJPY Change Structure From Bearish to Bullish USDJPY Possibility Bullish this is my view of Bullish setup
USDJPY Change Structure from bearish to bullish USDJPY Possibility Bullish thats my view for bullish setup
SHORTPrice broke previous low and tapped into previous lower high area to fill liquidity.
There's much value gap to be filled. I'm looking for shorts, my target would be 149.000
USD/JPY Short Setup - Trendline playI am currently looking for a short position on USD/JPY
Entry Point: 150.304 Near the red downtrend line, ensuring alignment with price rejection and resistance.
Trade Management:
Stop Loss (SL): Placed above the most recent high for protection.
First Take-Profit (TP1): At the first 4-hour resistance; SL will be moved to breakeven (BE) at this level to secure risk-free profits.
Partial Profits: Will be taken at subsequent 4-hour resistance levels to lock in gains.
Current bias: Bearish, respecting the downtrend line and maintaining lower highs.
Moving averages and key resistance zones provide confluence for this setup.
USDJPYUSDJPY ( U.S Dollar / Japanese Yen )
Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Break of Structure
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
Fibonacci Level - 38.20% / 50.00%
Demand Zone
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 05, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen is attracting some buyers on Thursday, albeit without bullish conviction.
Rising US bond yields are supporting the US dollar and lending support to the USD/JPY pair.
Traders seem reluctant to make aggressive bets ahead of the release of the US NFP report on Friday.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) rises against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday and moves away from the weekly low reached the previous day. Signs that Japan's core inflation is picking up continue to fuel expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again in December. In addition, persistent geopolitical risks, trade war fears and an overnight decline in US Treasury yields are contributing to the yen's gains.
Meanwhile, Wednesday's remarks from a number of influential FOMC members, including Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, served as a tailwind for US bond yields and the US dollar (USD). This, along with the prevalence of risk sentiment, may curb significant strength in the safe-haven Yen and provide some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders may also refrain from aggressive directional bets ahead of the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 150.00, when fixing above consider Buy positions, when rebounding consider Sell positions.
DeGRAM | USDJPY rebound from the channel boundaryUSDJPY is in a descending channel between the trend lines.
The price has already reached the lower boundary of the channel and dynamic support.
The chart has formed a harmonic pattern.
We expect a rebound to the dynamic resistance.
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Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
usdjpy longusdjpy
long
Please don't be greedy
ENTRY : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG position
above red line for SHORT position
INSTRUCTIONS:
For risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
USDJPY BUY!!!!UJ sentimental is bullish today, and early morning it just grabbed liquidity of the Asian session low. Now, let go long
We first aim for 1:1 the 1:2 after securing some profits
USDJPY DAILY FORECASTDespite the fact that the instrument is bullish, it has min trends along... and a big shift might be seen soon... sharpen your entries in H4 and refine in H1. Thank you.
USDJPY Long - 5 DecH4 ChoCh upwards.
Price retraced back into Demand Zone.
H1 shows fractal break upwards.
M15 Choch upwards.
Set pending order to buy for a 1:3RR.
USDJPY Short - 5 DecM15 has a ChoCh. Overall trend is bearish.
Price presented itself according to my entry model.
Took a short trade for 1:3RR.
USD/JPY bullish trend change 1 hrUSD/JPY has recently changed its direction from bearish to bullish in 1 hr time frame. Accumulate at the demand areas .
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 148.92
1st Support: 147.24
1st Resistance: 151.57
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