UJ trade ideamy trendline wave strategy, more of aa counter trend trade with the overall bearish flow. im trying to capitalize on a need for price to push up.
USDJPY trade ideas
USDJPY Will Move Higher! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 144.942.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 148.284 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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UJ target buyUJ my target buy because price reat patten Reversal buy at Fibo TP2.and price gave 2 point entry for a 50% fibo.. next target The TP 2..
USD/JPY) bullish trend analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/JPY chart shows a bullish reversal setup. Here’s a breakdown behind the analysis:
1. Downtrend & Channel Breakout:
Price was trending downward within a descending channel (marked “channel trend”).
Recently, the price broke out of the channel, signaling a potential trend reversal.
2. Demand Zone (Diamond Zone):
The yellow box labeled “Diamond Zone” represents a demand/support zone where price previously found buyers.
A retest of this zone is expected before the bullish move.
3. EMA (200):
The EMA (200) is currently above the price but close. A break above this level (142.522) could add to bullish momentum.
4. RSI Indicator:
RSI is showing a bounce off a mid-level (~50), suggesting bullish momentum is gaining.
5. Target Level:
The analysis targets 147.838, which aligns with a prior resistance zone.
The move projects a 5.19% gain (~778.5 pips) from the current setup.
Trading Idea Summary:
Entry: Around the “Diamond Zone” after a successful retest.
Confirmation: Watch for bullish candlestick patterns or a break above EMA 200.
Target: 147.838
Stop Loss (implied): Below the Diamond Zone (~140.000)
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
USDJPY Long PositionUSDJPY pair is currently positioned at a key support zone, where price action has historically reversed direction. Following a recent rebound from this level, the pair retested the support area. Given the broader uptrend structure (characterized by higher highs and higher lows), this retest presents a potential opportunity to enter long positions, contingent on bullish confirmation at this critical juncture.
Key Observations:
Established Uptrend: The pair’s consistent upward trajectory on higher time frames supports a bullish bias.
Support Retest: The current pullback to the support zone aligns with typical price behavior in trending markets, where retests of prior levels often precede trend resumptions, but a decisive close below the support would invalidate the bullish setup, potentially signaling a trend reversal or deeper correction.
Risk Management Strategy: A prudent approach would involve placing a stop-loss below the support zone to protect against a breakdown, while targeting the next resistance level for profit-taking.
Final Assessment:
The setup aligns with bullish momentum, provided the support holds.
Buy USDJPYUJ is in downtrend, below there is double bottom liquidity but in 1h timeframe, is seen to pull back to the downward going to unteated zone before it pops up and drop again.
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Let us observe the way setup will be revealed
USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisCOT Report Analysis:
You might thinking why Im bearish here when we can see such high number of shorts in the COT. Here is where historical extremes comes in to play. Look how JPY Longs (USDJPY shorts) reached 10 years extreme and in the same time there is 10 years extreme net positions. Right in the time may when Dollar is seasonally strongest. ITs time to take profits from these USDJPY shorts it will take price up.
Dollar Seasonal Tendencies
Hey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. Im always trying to trade with the Big players so knowing their positions is good thing.
Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
I created this simple free indicator which you can find in the my scripts. It's highlighting the day of the real report - Tuesday.
Here is the tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
USDJPY WILL FLY TO 161 !!HELLO TRADES
As you can see a harmonic pattren on Daily Chart for this pair udsjpy we have a great oppritunity to join the Us Dollar Rally we can see a horizontal Support was tested and and its moving to given Targets chart is simple and easy to ready make a proper research before taking any trade these are only dail based valid targets if not break given Stop loss We need ur Supports and comments Stay Tuned for more update ...
144.50 is a crucial turning pointAccording to the data from the LMAX Exchange, the volume of short yen positions being closed out in leveraged accounts has increased for three consecutive days. However, commercial accounts are still placing hedging buy orders above 145.50, forming a seesaw battle pattern between the bulls and the bears.
USDJPY LONGUSDJPY was oversold on the higher timeframe and rejected a weekly support level around 140.07. Daily resistance turn support around 143.95. Break of structure at resistance. Looking to go long on pullback to daily support around 144.00.
I think USDJPY is at the beginning of wave 3I think USDJPY is at the beginning of wave 3. If it maintains the channel and breaks the downtrend line of wave ABC
KING OF JPY. "USDJPY"Making interesting moves recently, expecting better this next week. Market analysis: we look forward on NFP NEWS. Dollar has being on the gaining side for a while now, so we expecting more buys and more profit see you on the long run
USDJPY Technical Expert Review - 3 May 2025🔮 USDJPY Price Forecast – 1H Timeframe
📈 Bullish Scenario:
Price may bounce from the LPP Inducement + HL (Higher Low) area and push upward.
The first target would be the upper blue LQ Close zone, which is still untouched.
If we observe weakness or an “M-shaped” reaction within that blue zone, a sell setup could be valid (inducement trap).
However, if price breaks and closes above the blue zone, further bullish continuation is expected — possibly toward the higher green liquidity zone around 147+.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If the HL (blue zone) fails and breaks down, forming a new Lower Low (LL),
Then we can expect price to retrace toward the lower green demand zone, around 141.000, which aligns with higher timeframe liquidity and unmitigated demand.
USD/JPY Bull is back to push the price upHi All,
Firstly, I want to congrats to traders who short the market for the last few months. Well done!!!
Those who is waiting for LONG opportunity, let's get ready for sniper entry.
Here is my prediction and entry on USD/JPY. As you can see, the orange zone around $139-$140 is extremely strong zone. Prices reverse 3 times on this level. On 22 March 2025, the closed daily candle was formed a hammer candle and followed by a strong bullish candle next day which indicates potential reversal to upward.
The RSI indicator lines were crossed on 22 March 2025. Now, the indicator is showing upward momentum as the both lines are about cross 50%.
We also have bullish divergence on the volume indicator. As you can see, the volume was going to sideway where as the price was heading to the orange zone.
These confluence is supporting me to enter LONG. Therefore, I entered 3 entry at different price point which is $143.50, $142.996, $144.70.
USDJPY: Bullish Continuation Confirmed?! 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY looks bullish after a test of a recently broken resistance.
The price formed a bullish imbalance candle on an hourly time frame
after its test and violated a resistance line of a bullish flag pattern then.
I believe that the pair will continue growing.
Goal - 145.8
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USDJPY is Sellinghaving given a CHoCH, it is temporally retracing to the up side to take out liquidity before giving us an official downtrend on the 1hour time frame. sell 1 and sell 2 are the two possible areas it could touch prior to the expected movement. stop loss should be 50 pips above sell 2 and also manage your risk.
USD/JPYThe pattern has **four points**: A, B, C, and D, forming two legs: **AB and CD**, which are equal in length and time.
There are two types:
* **Bullish AB=CD**: Signals a potential reversal to the upside.
* **Bearish AB=CD**: Signals a potential reversal to the downside.
Fibonacci Guidelines:
* The length of AB should be approximately equal to CD.
* The time it takes for price to move from A to B should be similar to C to D.
* The retracement BC is often:
* 61.8% or 78.6% of AB
* The projection CD is:
* 127.2% or 161.8% of BC
"USDJPY Crashing from Premium FVG | Liquidity Grab Confirmed!"USDJPY Analysis 🧠 | 15M Timeframe
Price tapped deep into the Premium Area, perfectly aligning with a high-probability Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Order Block confluence.
We witnessed a strong bearish reaction — classic Smart Money move in action.
Key Observations:
Price surged aggressively into the Premium Zone (~79% retracement area).
Immediate bearish reaction from the red Fair Value Gap zone.
Liquidity sweep confirmed above the previous Strong High.
Discount Area below remains unfilled, offering juicy targets.
🧠 Smart Money Concept Insight:
Institutions love to bait breakout traders by pumping into Premium Zones.
After collecting stop orders and liquidity above highs, they aggressively reverse, aiming to rebalance into the Discount Area.
USDJPY delivered a textbook liquidity grab before the sharp drop!
Current Trading Plan:
Bearish bias remains intact after the strong reaction.
TP1: Mid Discount Area
TP2: Weak Low liquidity sweep zone
SL (for any new shorts): Above the Strong High
Remember:
📚 Premium = Look for Sell Opportunities
📚 Discount = Look for Buy Opportunities
Stay laser-focused on Smart Money footprints, not noise.
📉 Emotions out, execution sharp!
"USDJPY | Smart Money Premium Trap | Mitigation Block Rejection"⚡ USDJPY Analysis – 30M Timeframe | April 30, 2025
📊 Price Action Summary:
USDJPY has aggressively tapped into the Premium Zone, aligning perfectly with a Mitigation Block and Fibonacci 61.8% golden pocket.
We’re seeing early signs of Smart Money rejection — time to stay sharp! 🧐
🔥 Key Moves:
Premium Zone Entry: Price retraced right into the 61.8–70.5% fib region.
Mitigation Block respected: A known Smart Money zone where trapped sellers from previous moves get wrecked.
Liquidity Build-Up Below: Eyes on the unprotected lows — Smart Money LOVES to grab those.
🧠 What’s Really Going On Behind the Scenes:
Retail traders: "It’s bouncing! Let’s go long!" 🟢💸
Smart Money: "Perfect… let’s trap them for liquidity." 🧊📉
This move screams classic Premium Trap — draw them in, then nuke it. ☠️
🧩 Why This Setup Matters:
Mitigation Block + FVG combo = High-probability rejection zone
Sellers are likely reloading positions here
The Strong High has been established — room to target Weak Lows below
🎯 Trade Setup Idea:
Entry: Inside or just below the Mitigation Block (confirmation from bearish rejection)
Stop Loss: Just above the Strong High (~142.813)
Take Profit Zones:
TP1: Mid-discount (~141.400)
TP2: Weak Low (~139.899) — the real liquidity target 🎯
💬 Pro Tip:
"Mitigation blocks are the sniper’s nest for Smart Money. Get in, get out, get paid." 🎯
Watch the reaction closely inside the purple zone. It’s not just a block — it’s a liquidity recycling station.
🚀 Summary:
✅ Price entered Premium
✅ Mitigation Block tested
✅ Liquidity below waiting
✅ High RRR bearish setup aligning
🧘♂️ Be patient. Wait for confirmation. Let Smart Money leave the trail — then follow.
✍️ Save this chart and study how Mitigation Blocks get respected over and over. It’s not magic — it’s mechanics.
➡️ Comment "SNEAKY SHORT" if you're watching the block trap unfold!
➡️ Tag a trader who still doesn’t believe in Premium/Discount theory. 😂📉📈
USDJPYThis is a 4-hour chart of the USD/JPY currency pair with a technical analysis setup that includes the following key elements:
Chart Analysis:
Trendline Support:
The price is following an ascending trendline, confirmed by higher lows (marked by green arrows).
The recent bounce off this trendline signals ongoing bullish momentum.
Key Levels & Zones:
Daily Supply Zone: Located around 147.80–148.30, which could act as a major resistance if price rallies.
Daily Resistance: At approximately 145.735, which price is approaching.
Daily Support: Around 142.87, reinforced by trendline confluence.
Fibonacci Retracement:
Fibonacci levels are drawn from the recent swing low to high:
0.382 ≈ 144.05
0.5 ≈ 144.07
0.618 ≈ 144.51
The price recently bounced from near the 0.618 retracement and is now climbing.
Moving Averages:
EMA 9 and EMA 21 are both sloping upward, with the 9 EMA (blue) currently at 144.757 and above the 21 EMA (orange), reinforcing a short-term bullish bias.
Bullish Scenario (highlighted by arrows):
If the price holds above the trendline and the 144.50–144.75 zone, a move toward 145.92 (previous high) is expected.
A break above 145.92 could lead to an extension toward 148.28 (1.618 Fib extension), coinciding with the supply zone.
Summary:
Current Bias: Bullish, as long as price respects the trendline and EMAs.
Confirmation for Continuation: A close above 145.735.
Invalidation: A sustained break below 143.75 or the trendline could shift the bias bearish.
Complete Mapping Analysis — USDJPY (H1 Chart)Strategy Focus: Elliott Wave (Impulse) + AO Divergence + Fibonacci Extensions
🔍 1. Current Wave Structure (Elliott Wave Count)
You’ve identified:
A completed Wave 3 (impulse).
A completed or nearly completed Wave 4 correction.
Now projecting Wave 5 to complete the 5-wave impulse.
Substructure breakdown:
Wave 1-2: Clean impulse and pullback.
Wave 3: Strong rally with AO confirming higher momentum peaks.
Wave 4: Corrective move, breaking below the internal trendline (initial break), signaling potential end of correction.
Wave 5 (projected): Final push upward to complete the motive wave.
📊 2. Fibonacci Extension Targets
From Wave 0–3 and Wave 4 retracement:
2.618 extension: ~146.50
2.886 extension: ~146.78
4.236 extension: ~148.22 (Aggressive top for a possible extended fifth)
These are possible Wave 5 termination zones. Confluence with previous supply zones increases likelihood of reversal here.
📉 3. Momentum Confirmation — Awesome Oscillator (AO)
You're watching for:
Bearish Divergence on AO:
Wave 3 had a strong momentum peak.
Expect Wave 5 to push higher in price, but AO shows a lower high, signaling weakening momentum.
This aligns with classic Wave 5 behavior — price extension with momentum exhaustion.
🧭 4. Entry Strategy
Setup: Long entry at Wave 4 bottom.
Entry trigger: Initial break → minor pullback → bullish confirmation candle.
AO: Turns green after red bars = first sign of momentum recovery.
Optional confirmation: Break of short-term structure high (micro Wave 1 in Wave 5).
🎯 5. Take Profit Plan
Layered take-profit strategy based on Fibonacci and AO:
Target Zone Price Area Action
TP1 (Safe) ~1.618 (145.44–145.72) Take partial profit (30–50%)
TP2 (Primary) ~2.618 (146.50) Secure majority of profit (80%)
TP3 (Max/Stretch) ~4.236 (148.22) Optional final push / runner
🛡 6. Stop Loss Strategy
SL placement: Below Wave (4) low (~143.73 zone) or below structure break.
Use structure break or strong bearish engulfing as a reason to exit early if momentum fails.
⚠️ 7. Divergence & Reversal Monitoring
Once price enters your TP2–TP3 zone:
Look for:
AO divergence (price high vs. AO lower high).
Bearish engulfing candles or microstructure breaks.
Weak volume or extended wick rejection.
These may indicate Wave 5 completion and the start of Wave A (correction) or a reversal.
🔄 8. Next Play After Wave 5 Completes
If divergence confirms and reversal begins:
Map corrective structure (ABC).
Short from:
Break of rising wedge/trendline.
AO flips red + break of microstructure.
Target retracement:
0.382 to 0.618 retracement of the full Wave 1–5 impulse.
Target zone: ~144.80 – 143.70
✅ Summary: Strategic Flow
✅ Identify Wave 4 completion → Confirm via initial break + minor pullback.
✅ Long entry for Wave 5 → Enter on bullish candle or structural break.
✅ Track AO → Expect divergence at Wave 5 peak.
✅ Use Fibonacci for TP zones.
✅ Exit with confirmation of divergence and reversal signs.
✅ Option to reverse short post-Wave 5.
