USDJPY trade ideas
USDJPY Long then Short: inverse H&SThis is a follow-up to the USDJPY idea that I posted yesterday. I am seeing an inverse H&S setup that is broken as the video is being recorded.
Potential bullish rise?USD/JPY has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance, which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 144.29
1st Support: 143.28
1st Resistance: 146.17
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Complete Market Structure: Order Flow and Multiple TimeframesUnderstanding Market Structure: A Simplified Breakdown
Market structure can seem complex at first glance. But when you break it down piece by piece, it becomes much simpler to understand. At its core, price action is a visual representation of human emotion and logistic balance. It’s both calculated and unpredictable. To truly grasp price action, we must begin by understanding the foundations of the market.
1. Sentiment
In the beginning, there was just a single bar — whether on the 1-minute, 1-hour, 1-day, or 1-week chart. That one bar only had one defining trait: direction. At this early point, there was no trend, no supply or demand zones — only bullish or bearish sentiment. Over time, as more bars formed, sentiment shifted. What was once bullish became bearish, or vice versa. This shift gave rise to a new phenomenon: engulfment .
2. Engulfment
An engulfment occurs when one candle overtakes the previous one, signifying a strong shift in sentiment. When this happened for the first time, it created what we now call an order block around the engulfed candle. The engulfment generated a gap, which led to an imbalance in the market. Naturally, price tends to return to fill this gap to regain balance. Often, price will later engulf back in the original direction, continuing the cycle.
3. Order Flow / Sequence
As more bars appeared, patterns began to form. Series of bullish bars created bullish order flow, and bearish sequences formed bearish order flow. These sequences, when viewed on higher timeframes, appeared as single candles. As these larger candles began to engulf each other, it triggered a new surface-level event: bullish sequences began overtaking bearish ones, and vice versa. This is what I call internal shifting .
4. Internal Shifting
Through internal shifting — where sequences start overtaking each other — the chart begins to display more defined highs and lows. These fluctuations deepen as order flow keeps switching back and forth. Eventually, the structure is no longer just internal. Highs and lows start breaking, and broader, more visible structures form.
5. Highs, Lows, and Breaks of Structure (BoS)
As this cycle continues, the external structure of a timeframe emerges. Highs get higher, then lower, and this alternation continues. The result is a zigzag pattern — the hallmark of market structure. But this structure is not random. It’s the collective output of sentiment shifts, engulfments, sequences, internal shifts, and breaks of structure, all working together to create the full picture.
6. Multi-Timeframe Principles
In simple terms, the external structure of a smaller timeframe is just a more detailed (fractal) version of its higher timeframe. Likewise, the internal structure of a given timeframe is the external structure of its lower timeframe. This creates multiple perspectives of the same phenomena, depending on scale.
7. Same Concepts, Different Scales
What’s called an order block on a higher timeframe may be known as a supply or demand zone on a lower timeframe. An engulfment on a higher timeframe can appear as a sequential engulfment on a lower one. An internal shift on a lower timeframe might just be a pullback when viewed from above. If you go two timeframes apart — say, from low to medium to high — you’ll notice even more complexity. For instance, a higher timeframe order block becomes a premium/discount zone in the lowest of those three timeframes.
8. Low, Medium, and High Timeframes: The Complete Picture
By analyzing the market using three timeframes in unison, you can establish a complete view of market structure. When you truly understand this approach, trading becomes more strategic. Your setups gain better risk-to-reward ratios, and consistent profitability becomes more achievable.
Market structure is both logically and emotionally driven — simple, yet intricate. And while we’ve covered the logical side, the emotional side lies in trading psychology — a topic I’ll be exploring in detail next.
Want to apply this concept using indicators?
I've developed custom indicators that reflect the principles explained above. If you'd like to see how this theory works in practice, check out my TradingView page : The_Forex_Steward , where you can access these tools.
pattern breakoutThe pattern got broken, so look for the correction, then if any bullish candlestick comes can aim for the long position
USDJPY InsightHello to all our subscribers!
Please feel free to share your personal thoughts in the comments. Don’t forget to hit the boost button and subscribe!
Key Points
- The Bank of Japan has decided to maintain its policy of reducing government bond purchases beyond April next year. It is expected to officially announce the extension of its bond-buying plan during the Monetary Policy Meeting scheduled for June 16–17.
- The United States and China concluded the first day of trade talks in London. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant described the talks as “positive,” while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said they were “productive.”
- According to the New York Federal Reserve, 1-year inflation expectations fell by 0.4% to 3.2% from the previous month. Expectations for 3-year and 5-year inflation also showed signs of easing, further fueling hopes of interest rate cuts.
Key Economic Events This Week
+ June 11: U.S. May Consumer Price Index (CPI)
+ June 12: U.K. April GDP, U.S. May Producer Price Index (PPI)
+ June 13: Germany May Consumer Price Index (CPI)
USDJPY Chart Analysis
The 142 level has consistently provided strong support, and the pair has since climbed to the upper range around 144. However, resistance near the 146 level remains, making it difficult to confirm a full bullish trend. While we may anticipate a potential rise toward the 149 level, we’ll be keeping a close watch on how the price behaves around 146.
usd/jpyi am just uploading this picture because i belive the market has hit a LEVEL of resistance and this is where i belive it to go TRADE 1
Fresh USDJPY Pitch 9/6/2025Updated USDJPY Pitch based on latest movements. Even though the old pitch broke, there were clear indications this would happen. This pitch also includes some basic potential trade markers.
Usdjpy|| — the next move could be explosiveUSD/JPY
Timeframe: 2H
Strategy: Elliott Wave + Triangle Pattern + Fair Value Gap (FvG)
Formation: Contracting Triangle – Wave (a) to (e)
Risk-Reward: High Conviction Setup
Status: On the verge of breakout
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
The chart shows a classic contracting triangle pattern with completed internal waves (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e).
Price is reacting near wave (e), signaling a potential bullish breakout.
A clean Fair Value Gap (FvG) zone lies just below current price — possible last dip before the breakout surge.
Target zone = 148.874, derived from the triangle's height projected from breakout point.
Strong confluence with liquidity hunt below before expansion move.
🎯 Target: 148.874
🛑 Stop Loss: Below 142.738 (SI Level / structural low)
🟢 Entry Trigger: Breakout above trendline + retest confirmation or Smart Money entry at FvG
This setup aligns with Elliott Wave triangle theory, often seen before sharp impulse waves. Smart Money is likely filling orders in the FvG zone before the upward expansion.
USD/JPY holds key support ahead of US dataThe USD/JPY direction has turned somewhat bullish in recent days as improving risk appetite and optimism over US-China trade talks lifted the dollar and pressurized the safe-haven yen.
The pair held firm above key support at 142.50, with sentiment-driven flows favoring the greenback. This week’s focus shifts to key US data releases—CPI on Wednesday and UoM Consumer Sentiment on Friday—which could influence Fed policy expectations and the USD’s trajectory.
A stronger dollar, supported by macro data and fading trade tensions, may push USD/JPY higher, especially as global equities rally and investor confidence improves.
Short-term resistance is seen around the 145.00 handle. The next upside targets are at 146.00, and then 148.00.
All bullish bets would be off, however, should support at 142.50 give way eventually. At the time of writing price was testing interim support around 144.00.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Will the USD/JPY exchange rate fall toward 142?During the European session, USD/JPY continued its downward trend, falling 0.52% on the day to 144.108, technically pressured below the 50-day moving average of 144.412. Meanwhile, news that the Japanese government is considering repurchasing ultra-long-term government bonds has triggered a repricing of the Japanese government bond yield curve, significantly increasing market volatility. The 144 level has become a pivotal battleground for bulls and bears. Two scenarios need to be watched out for: if the Bank of Japan (BOJ) delays policy adjustments and the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, USD/JPY may rebound to test 146; conversely, if the bond repurchases coincide with the BOJ extending its easing policy, the yen could stage a periodic rally to the 142 range.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Skeptic | USD/JPY Analysis: Sharp Uptrend Triggers Ready!Hey, traders, it’s Skeptic! 😎 CMCMARKETS:USDJPY is gearing up for a sharp uptrend move, and if you sleep on it, you might miss it, jump in late, and get stopped out. So, let’s set our scenarios and triggers now to make quick, sharp decisions instead of lagging.
Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture
We were in a major bearish trend but now seem stuck in a triangle. The heavy bearish momentum and support zone at 142.232–142.604 —our key level—has held strong with reactions every time we hit it. But, the bearish moves are getting weaker , with shallower slopes and smaller, choppier candles, signaling fading momentum and a higher chance of a reversal. Still, we need a trigger to go long—without it, jumping in is risky. As a skeptical trader , I need solid reasoning for every move. That’s our vibe! :)))
Now, let’s hit the 4-Hour Timeframe for our triggers.
We’ve got a descending trendline , and breaking it upward could spark an uptrend. But here’s the deal: this isn’t a continuation pattern—a break means a trend reversal, so we need extra confirmation beyond just the break.
Our main long trigger is a break above resistance at 145.071 .
Stop loss? Place it below the trendline, previous support, or last low—depends on your strategy.I’m a breakout trader myself
( check my article for deets! ).
For confirmation, watch RSI hitting overbought—it backs the uptrend momentum and can push you to your R/R faster. 😊 I’ll drop an RSI tutorial soon , so stay tuned! If we lose the support zone ( 142.232–142.604 ), expect the bearish trend to continue, so focus on shorts then.
Final word: No FOMO . Wait for your triggers and confirmations. Our motto? No FOMO. No hype. Just reason :)
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this analysis helped you, smash that boost—it means a lot! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to hit next? Drop it in the comments. Thanks for chilling with me—keep trading smart! ✌️
USDJPY Trade Idea – Major Reversal Brewing?Price has repeatedly respected this strong demand zone, showing multiple rejections with higher lows — signaling buyer interest. This zone aligns with historical support from August–September 2024.
🔵 Resistance to Watch: 149.068
A breakout above 149.068 could open up room toward the next major supply zone at 156.000, which is where we see the highest historical volume activity (Visible Range HVN).
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💡 Bullish Outlook:
Price just bounced off the demand zone for the third time ✅
RSI (not shown here) is moving up from oversold territory 📈
Clean breakout potential above 149.00
FOMC event approaching (as seen on chart), could provide the catalyst needed ⚠️
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📊 Trade Setup Idea:
Entry: Above 145.000 confirmation candle
Target 1: 149.000
Target 2: 155.800 (Supply zone)
Stop Loss: Below 143.800
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📣 Are You Watching USDJPY Too?
Drop your analysis or thoughts in the comments 💬.
Follow for more updates and trade breakdowns!
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🔖 Hashtags:
#USDJPY #ForexAnalysis #TradingView #SupplyAndDemand #LuxAlgo #ForexSignals #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #JPY #ForexTrader #SwingTrade #USDEURJPY #SmartMoney #MarketStructure #FOMC
USDJPY Buy analysis/ideaThis trade and analysis is based on the Daily and 4-hour timeframes and executed using reversal trading and trend formation. Complete explanation in the video!
Technical Analysis on JPY Price Action (as of June 9, 2025)📈 Technical Analysis on JPY Price Action (as of June 9, 2025)
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🗂️ Overview:
This chart illustrates the price movement of the Japanese Yen (JPY) with clearly defined support and resistance zones. The setup suggests a bullish bias in the short term, with potential for a breakout toward previous highs.
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🔍 Key Levels Identified:
🟥 Main Support Zone (141.80 – 142.80):
This is a strong demand zone.
Price bounced aggressively from this level in late May.
If broken, could trigger a major downside move 📉.
🟧 Support Zone (143.80 – 144.70):
Price is currently testing this zone.
Holding this area will be crucial for bullish continuation.
🟨 Resistance Zone (145.80 – 146.60):
This is the next target for bulls 🐂.
Historically acted as a supply zone, causing pullbacks.
🟫 ATH Resistance Zone (~147.80 – 148.50):
The All-Time High (ATH) resistance zone.
Strong rejection from here in the past; likely to act as a hard ceiling again 🚫.
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🔄 Price Action Forecast:
🕊️ If the current support holds, expect a bullish move toward the 146.00–146.50 resistance.
📈 A breakout above this resistance could initiate a move to the ATH zone (147.80+).
🚨 A breakdown below 143.80 could lead to retesting the main support near 142.00.
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📊 Technical Sentiment:
Bias: Bullish ✅
Trend: Recovering uptrend after forming a higher low.
Confirmation Needed: Break and retest of the 145.80–146.60 resistance for continuation.
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✅ Trading Tip:
Wait for either:
🔁 A retest and bounce from 144.00 for long entries 🎯.
❌ A rejection at resistance for potential short opportunities if price fails to break 146.60.
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📌 Conclusion:
The market shows bullish intent from support, but traders should watch the reaction near the resistance zone to confirm trend continuation. 📍Patience and confirmation are key.
usdjpy for shoert *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
JPYUSD Smart Money VIP Analysis – Eyeing High-Probability Target📈 Market Context:
The JPYUSD (Japanese Yen vs. US Dollar) is currently navigating through a critical structure phase where price is reacting to previously established institutional zones. Recent price movements reveal a clean and structured setup — one that aligns perfectly with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and CHoCH (Change of Character) theory.
This 2H chart provides a roadmap for anticipating the next high-probability reversal, giving traders an edge in both short-term scalps and mid-term swing trades.
🔍 In-Depth Chart Analysis:
🧱 Resistance Zone (0.007020–0.007040):
This area has been tested multiple times in the past and acted as a strong supply zone. Institutional orders have previously caused significant bearish pressure from this level. Unless a strong bullish breakout occurs with volume, this zone is likely to hold again.
🔁 Next Reversal Zone (0.006975–0.006985):
Price is currently climbing from the SR Interchange Zone, heading toward this marked reversal area. Here's why this zone matters:
Confluence of past resistance and imbalance
Potential liquidity sweep above minor highs
Perfect setup for a bearish reaction to form a lower high
Traders should watch for signs of weak bullish candles, wicks, or a bearish engulfing here.
🔄 SR Interchange (Support-Resistance Flip):
This level held firm, showing buyer interest after a previous structure break. It signals a healthy correction phase — a typical SMC signature before larger moves occur. The market is offering a retracement opportunity.
🟡 CHoCH Zones:
Minor CHoCH (0.006900): A break and close below this level would invalidate bullish correction and confirm the shift in momentum.
Major CHoCH (0.006840): The final confirmation of bearish dominance. A breach here opens the door for new lows, targeting long-term support areas.
⚔️ Smart Money Playbook:
Current Move: Price is in bullish retracement from previous demand zone
Watch Zone: 0.006975–0.006985 (Potential Smart Money sell zone)
Reaction Setup:
Bearish structure forms (e.g., M pattern, liquidity sweep, bearish engulfing)
Price breaks minor CHoCH
Sell Entry: After confirmation, with stops above reversal zone
TP1: SR Interchange level
TP2: Major CHoCH zone
📅 Fundamental Triggers Ahead:
Watch for upcoming USD economic data (CPI, PPI, interest rate decisions) between June 11–14, which could act as catalysts for volatility and confirm technical setups.
🧠 Educational Note:
This setup is a classic example of market structure shift, liquidity engineering, and order block theory — concepts used by banks and smart money traders. Retail traders often get trapped on the wrong side of these zones. Your edge lies in anticipating the trap, not reacting to it.
🎯 Conclusion:
JPYUSD is offering a textbook Smart Money setup. The current retracement gives an opportunity to position early into a likely bearish continuation, provided structure confirms at the next reversal zone. Patience, discipline, and precise timing will be key to capitalizing on this move.
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 9, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) is rising at the start of the new week, reacting to upward revisions to Japan's first quarter GDP data. This comes amid signs of rising inflation in Japan and confirmation of bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates, which in turn provides a slight boost to the JPY. In addition, a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD) is putting some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session.
For now, the Yen appears to have broken a two-day losing streak against its US counterpart, although traders may refrain from aggressive directional bets ahead of key US-China trade talks in London. In addition, stronger-than-expected US jobs data released on Friday dampened hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates soon this year, which could serve as a tailwind for the dollar and limit USD/JPY pair losses.
Trade recommendation: SELL 143.85, SL 144.85, TP 141.85
09.06.25 Morning ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:USDJPY
FX:AUDNZD
FX:AUDJPY
FX:CHFJPY
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
USD/JPYMy initial bias was to short USD/JPY; however, the pair has since formed a double bottom pattern, indicating a potential bullish reversal. It has broken through a key resistance level at 144.300. I am now waiting for confirmation of a successful retest of this level before considering a long position.
