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USDJPY trade ideas

USDJPY- IS it a beginning of major bulish trend nowthe USD/JPY pair is currently in a major bullish trend, driven by several key factors: 1. Interest Rate Differentials: The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains higher interest rates compared to the Bank of Japan, attracting capital flows into the U.S. dollar and away from the yen. 2. Dovish Bank of Japan: Despite global tightening, the BOJ remains cautious about raising rates or ending yield curve control, weakening the yen further. 3. Robust U.S. Economic Data: Strong economic indicators from the U.S. (such as inflation, jobs, and GDP growth) continue to support expectations of prolonged higher rates, boosting the dollar.
Long
by SadarExplore
1
Falling towards pullback support?USDJPY is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 142.400 1st Support: 140.92 1st Resistance: 144.77 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USDJPY set go down much further. 1. Summary of Key Factors -Factor Signal Impact on USD/JPY Notes -US 20Y Bond Selloff Bearish USD 🔻 Drop Likely Suggests capital outflows from US -Moody's Downgrade Bearish USD 🔻 Drop Likely Weakens USD confidence globally -Japanese Portfolio Rebalancing Bullish JPY🔻 Drop Likely Reduced UST purchases = yen demand -Technical Break of SMA & Support Bearish 🔻 Drop Likely Clean 50-day MA break = momentum shift -Risk Sentiment (Safe-Haven Flows) Favors JPY 🔻 Drop Likely JPY tends to strengthen in uncertainty -Upcoming Asian Session (Tokyo Open) Neutral–Bearish 🔻 May Continue Yen typically sees increased strength Looking at all these factors we should expect a further drop.
Short
by Mexiguero
USDJPY BULLISH IDEA🧱 Key Observations Order Block (OB) Marked (Demand Zone): A clearly marked bullish order block (OB) zone is highlighted in pink around the 139.883 low. This zone likely represents institutional buying interest. It was the origin of a strong bullish move that broke prior structure. Price Action: After a series of higher highs and higher lows, price has retraced significantly. It's approaching the order block area again, potentially for a retest or liquidity grab. Heikin Ashi Candles: Recent candles are bearish, showing momentum to the downside. However, these candles typically lag in reversals, so price may soon shift if it hits the OB zone. Projected Move: A large blue upward arrow is drawn, suggesting an anticipated bullish reversal from the OB zone with a potential move back to 148.647 (recent high). 📊 Technical Implication Bullish Bias if price holds within or just above the OB zone. Watch for bullish reversal signals (engulfing patterns, divergence, or break of minor structure). If price breaks below 139.883 decisively, the bullish setup may be invalidated. 📌 Strategy Idea (Not Financial Advice): Entry Zone: 140.000–139.900 (inside OB) Stop Loss: Below 139.800 Target: ~148.500 Risk/Reward: Favorable if OB holds
Long
by theprofitpioneerzw
1
USDJPY Bearish in the short term.The USD/JPY exchange rate extended its recent downward trend during the European session, falling for the third consecutive trading day and marking the sixth decline in the past seven trading days. It hit a two-week low in the 143.45 area during the European morning session. Multiple factors have jointly driven the exchange rate lower, indicating that the sharp pullback from the monthly high of 148.65 reached last Monday may continue to extend. The Japanese yen is supported by market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates again and has gained additional momentum from the rebound in risk-aversion demand. In the short term, USD/JPY maintains a downward trend, with technical indicators showing that bears are in control. 142.210 will be a key support level; a break below this level could accelerate the decline toward the 139.887 area. In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
Short
by Ashbur
USD/JPY – Dow Theory Trend Test | Tight SL StrategyPair: USD/JPY Trend: Bearish (Confirmed Lower Highs & Lower Lows) Trade Type: Sell Stop Entry Price (EP): 143.365 Stop Loss (SL): 144.253 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 142.477 (1:1) Take Profit 2 (TP2): 141.589 (1:2) Lot Size: 0.16 Risk/Reward: Trade 1: Risk $100 / Reward $100 (1:1) Trade 2: Risk $100 / Reward $200 (1:2) Total Risk: $200 Total Reward: $300 🔍 Trade Idea Based on Dow Theory: According to Dow Theory, USD/JPY is in a confirmed downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. This setup captures a bearish continuation move if price breaks below the recent structure low. The Sell Stop entry ensures we only enter the market if bearish momentum resumes. We are using a clear structure-based stop loss and logical take profit levels aligned with market flow. ✅ Strategy Logic: Bearish Momentum: Trend is down — no guessing tops or bottoms Breakout Entry: Sell Stop entry avoids false moves in choppy markets Structure-Based SL/TP: Keeping trade clean and technical Split Trade: One conservative TP, one extended for trend ride 📌 Note: This trade is designed to capture a breakout in alignment with the current downtrend. Using smart risk control and proper trade sizing makes this setup scalable. #USDJPY #BearishTrend #DowTheory #PriceAction #ForexSetup #SmartTrading #BreakoutTrade #SellStop #RiskReward #ForexSignals #TechnicalTrading #ChartPatterns
Short
by asimafridi
USDJPYDXY (US Dollar Index) and Bond Yield Relationship – May 2025 Current Market Situation US Treasury Yields: The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.54% (May 21, 2025), and the 30-year yield is testing the 5% level amid a global bond sell-off. DXY (US Dollar Index): The DXY and the 10-year yield are moving in sync again after a period of divergence earlier in 2025. Relationship Dynamics Positive Correlation: Historically, the DXY and US bond yields (especially the 10-year yield) tend to move together. When yields rise, the dollar often strengthens, as higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns. In recent weeks, this positive correlation has resumed after a brief disconnect in April, when yields surged but the dollar weakened due to shifting investor sentiment and US tariff policy. Periods of Divergence: In early April 2025, there was a notable divergence: yields climbed while the dollar fell, reflecting a rare episode where investors were wary of US assets despite higher returns, possibly due to concerns about US fiscal health and global trade tensions. During that period, both US bonds and the dollar declined together, signaling a potential shift away from US assets and raising questions about the dollar’s structural appeal as a reserve currency. Recent Realignment: After the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting and a major tariff agreement with China, the DXY and yields began rising together again, indicating renewed confidence in US assets and a return to more typical market behavior. Key Factors Influencing the Relationship Fed Policy: Expectations for future rate cuts or hikes directly influence both yields and the dollar. Higher expected rates generally support both. Global Risk Sentiment: In risk-off scenarios, the dollar can strengthen even if yields fall, due to safe-haven demand. Trade and Fiscal Policy: Tariffs and concerns about US debt sustainability can disrupt the usual correlation, as seen in early 2025. Summary Table Factor Impact on DXY Impact on Yields Typical Correlation Rising US Yields Strengthens DXY Yields rise Positive Fed Rate Hike Expectations Strengthens DXY Yields rise Positive US Fiscal Concerns Can weaken DXY Yields may rise Can diverge Global Risk Aversion Strengthens DXY Yields may fall Can diverge Trade Tensions/Tariffs Mixed Mixed May disrupt correlation Conclusion As of May 2025, the DXY and US bond yields have resumed a positive correlation, both rising in response to Fed policy signals and improved risk sentiment following a major tariff agreement. However, earlier in the year, this relationship broke down due to concerns about US fiscal stability and shifting global investment flows. The interplay between DXY and yields remains sensitive to Fed policy, fiscal outlook, and geopolitical developments.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
USD/JPY Dips FurtherUSD/JPY Dips Further USD/JPY declined below 144.50 and is currently consolidating losses. Important Takeaways for USD/JPY Analysis Today - USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 146.10 and 144.90 levels. - There is a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance at 144.25 on the hourly chart at FXOpen. USD/JPY Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above the 146.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below the 145.00 support against the Japanese Yen. The pair even settled below the 144.50 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a spike below 144.00 and the pair traded as low as 143.72. It is now consolidating losses with a bearish angle. Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 146.10 swing high to the 143.42 low at 144.25. There is also a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance at 144.25. The first major resistance is near the 144.90 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 146.10 swing high to the 143.42 low. If there is a close above the 144.90 level and the hourly RSI moves above 50, the pair could rise toward 145.50. The next major resistance is near 146.10, above which the pair could test 147.50 in the coming days. On the downside, the first major support is near 143.70. The next major support is near the 143.20 level. If there is a close below 143.20, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 142.00 support. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
USDJPY TRADE PLAN – MAY 21 BIG BREAKOUT AHEAD?USDJPY TRADE PLAN – MAY 21 | FED HAWKISH BUT YEN STAYS WEAK – BIG BREAKOUT AHEAD? USDJPY is entering a critical technical zone as the market weighs the Fed’s persistent hawkish stance against Japan’s passive approach to the Yen’s depreciation. After a strong rally, we are seeing a potential exhaustion with key levels in play. 🌍 MACRO CONTEXT: FED remains hawkish: Officials continue to support higher-for-longer interest rates to tame inflation → USD remains firm. Bank of Japan silence: No signs of FX intervention or rate policy shift, causing ongoing weakness in JPY. Risk sentiment neutral: Risk-off flows are muted; USDJPY remains trapped in a wide range – awaiting macro catalysts. 📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H2 CHART): Price is now correcting within a falling channel. Price broke below the MA200 and rising trendline, now retesting a key support zone at 143.77. The current range 141.99 – 144.71 is critical – a breakout from either end may dictate the next medium-term direction. 🎯 TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY: ✅ SCENARIO A – SELL THE RALLY (PRIMARY BIAS): If price rejects 144.71: SELL ZONE: 144.70 – 144.71 SL: 145.10 TP: 143.77 → 143.30 → 142.50 → 141.99 → Key resistance area – price may trigger strong seller interest. ✅ SCENARIO B – SELL ON BREAKDOWN: If price breaks 143.77 and retests: SELL ZONE: 143.60 – 143.70 (post-breakdown entry) SL: 144.10 TP: 142.50 → 142.00 → 141.99 ✅ SCENARIO C – SHORT-TERM BUY (LESS FAVORABLE): If price reacts positively at 141.99 with bullish confirmation: BUY ZONE: 141.90 – 141.99 SL: 141.50 TP: 142.50 → 143.00 → 143.77 → Only take this setup if strong reversal signals appear. 🔑 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH: Resistance: 144.71 – 145.00 – 148.44 Support: 143.77 – 143.30 – 141.99 – 141.20 📌 FINAL THOUGHTS: USDJPY remains in a volatile consolidation zone, pressured by a hawkish Fed but lacking JPY strength. Watch for PMI data and Fed comments this week for directional cues. Until then, respect the current range and trade with discipline. 📣 Bias favors SELL from 144.71 unless buyers reclaim full control – trade the reaction, not the prediction!
Short
by MMFlowTrading
2
JPYUSD | Head & Shoulders Breakdown Setup | Bearish move Build🔍 Technical Overview A clear Head & Shoulders pattern has formed on the JPY/USD 8H chart — a well-known bearish reversal setup often signaling a shift from bullish momentum to bearish control. The pattern is confirmed with a left shoulder, higher head, and lower right shoulder, all aligned along a defined neckline acting as key horizontal support. Currently, the price is retesting both the neckline and a descending trendline, which adds confluence to the bearish bias. If price fails to break back above this resistance zone, we can anticipate a further drop toward the projected target zone. 📌 Key Technical Levels Head: ~0.007180 Neckline Support: ~0.006660 Retest Area (Confluence Zone): ~0.006940–0.006960 Bearish Target: ~0.006470 (measured from the head to the neckline and projected downward) Trendline Resistance: Acting as dynamic resistance since the recent high ⚙️ Price Action Insights Pattern Clarity: The structure of the H&S is clean and symmetrical — a classic sign of distribution and topping out after a bullish rally. Retest in Play: Price is currently retesting the trendline resistance. Rejection from this area strengthens bearish continuation potential. Momentum Shift: Bullish pressure is weakening. Lower highs on the right shoulder show buyer exhaustion. 🧠 Mindset & Strategy This setup demonstrates how patience, pattern recognition, and confluence can align to offer a high-probability trading idea. ✅ Wait for Confirmation: A strong bearish candle off the retest zone or neckline breakdown gives a cleaner short entry. ✅ Risk Management First: Place stops just above the right shoulder or trendline (~0.007000 zone). ✅ Target Logically: The target is not random — it’s derived using the classic measured move technique, matching the head-to-neckline distance. 📋 Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice) 📍 Entry: On rejection at retest zone or confirmed neckline breakdown 🎯 Target: 0.006470 🛑 Stop Loss: Above 0.007000 (trendline/right shoulder area) ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: Minimum 2:1 if entered post-retest confirmation 🧠 Trader’s Note (Minds Insight) This is where discipline comes into play. Don’t chase the move. Let the pattern complete and confirm. Head and Shoulders formations are among the most reliable reversal patterns — but only after neckline breaks or strong rejections. This setup teaches traders to trust the process, combine horizontal and diagonal resistance, and let the price action do the talking.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisCOT Report Analysis: Overall, we can still see red data for the USDJPY, but let's look at the shorts closely. You can see they are being reduced. Check the charts where I highlighted the reports and how I read them. Hey, what up traders, another week, another COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. I'm always trying to trade with the Big players, so knowing their positions is a good thing. 📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again, we as retail traders have a disadvantage, but there is the possibility to read between the lines. Remember, in the report is what they want you to see; that's why prices mostly reverse on Wednesday after the report, so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However, if the trend is running, you can read it and use it to your advantage. 📍Tip: If the level has confluence with the high volume on COT, it can be strong support / Resistance. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." Have a great trading week, see in the next report. — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Long
by David_Perk
2
Bearish Pressure on USDJPY Likely to Continue With Higher YieldsUSDJPY was rejected at the 38.2% retracement level. Rising yields may continue to exert downward pressure until the 140 support level is tested. The true direction for USDJPY will likely become clearer after that test. Similar to USDJPY, EURJPY has also formed a bearish technical outlook. You can check our earlier post on EURJPY here: Unless EURUSD rises sharply, the downward pressure on both USDJPY and EURJPY is likely to persist.
Short
by ftdsystem