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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY Market Update – 04 April 2025The USD/JPY pair has been trending lower, reflecting recent weakness in the US dollar and renewed strength in the Japanese yen, which is often viewed as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty. In addition, markets appear to be pricing in potential policy divergence between the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the US Federal Reserve, contributing to recent moves. It’s worth noting that upcoming US employment data may have a significant impact on this pair, potentially increasing market volatility. From a technical standpoint, several scenarios may unfold: • The pair could approach the 146.5 area, where signs of resistance have previously emerged. If bearish momentum continues, it may revisit the 143.5 region. A break below this level could see the pair testing the psychological 140 mark – a zone that, historically, has attracted buyer interest. • Alternatively, if the price moves above the 143.7 level and establishes support, it could indicate a shift in short-term sentiment. In such a case, a potential move towards the 150 level may be observed, particularly if supported by stronger-than-expected US employment figures. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
by easyMarkets
#006 Moving Average USDJPY SELL 1644SGT 04042025Add : Shorted on the 5 Minutes Time Frame, but time frame too small to publish on tradingview, so, I posted on the 15 Minutes Time Frame instead. 1648SGT 04042025 --- Trump Tariff caused USD to get dumped yesterday. US stocks also got dumped for 6 to 7 weeks consecutively. If you look at the Daily time frame you would see the big red candle on USDJPY's dump. I was looking at opportunities on all JPY pairs, and I took a liking to USDJPY because I am expecting USD to continue to get dumped. Shorting the resistance level. If you look at price on the 1H or 4H time frame, you would realise price is in a consolidation towards the down side, and I like that. NFP and unemployment rate news coming out later in the day. in about 4 hours time. Current time is 1647SGT. Might exit before the news got released. 1647SGT 04042025
Short
by goh8888lester
The Day Ahead US Jobs & FED Powell speech US March Jobs Report Most important release this week. Strong report boosts the dollar and bond yields Weak report supports stocks and pressures the dollar Canada March Jobs Report Strong numbers lift the Canadian dollar Weak numbers weigh on CAD Germany, France, Italy Data Includes factory orders, industrial production, and retail sales Weak data puts pressure on the euro Strong data supports the euro Japan February Household Spending Low spending signals continued Bank of Japan easing, weakens the yen Higher spending may support the yen UK March Car Sales and Construction PMI Positive surprises could lift the pound Sweden March CPI Hot inflation could delay rate cuts and support the krona Cooler CPI may lead to SEK weakness Central Bank Watch Fed’s Powell and Barr Speaking Hawkish tone strengthens the dollar and lifts yields Dovish comments could boost risk assets and weaken the dollar This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
JPY/USD – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish Trading Setup1. Market Structure & Technical Pattern: The Japanese Yen (JPY) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) has been exhibiting a clear Rising Wedge Pattern over the past few months. This is a classic bearish reversal pattern, indicating that buying momentum is gradually weakening, and a strong decline is likely to follow. Formation of the Rising Wedge: The price has been making higher highs and higher lows, confined within two converging trendlines (black lines). The lower boundary (support trendline) has been consistently acting as a dynamic support level. The upper boundary (resistance trendline) has been limiting further upward movement, indicating exhaustion of buying pressure. Breakout Confirmation: The price action tested the resistance zone multiple times but failed to sustain bullish momentum. A strong rejection from the upper resistance level led to a sharp sell-off, causing a breakdown of the support trendline. Once the price broke below the wedge, selling pressure intensified, confirming the trend reversal. 2. Key Technical Levels & Zones: Resistance Level (0.006895): The price previously struggled to break above this resistance zone, forming a strong supply area where sellers dominated. This level aligns with the upper boundary of the rising wedge, making it a significant turning point. The rejection from this zone initiated the bearish breakdown. Support Level (Broken – 0.006650): This level acted as a strong demand zone, preventing further downside movement during the wedge formation. However, once the price broke below this level, it confirmed the end of the uptrend and the beginning of a downtrend. This level may now act as a new resistance (role reversal principle). Stop Loss Placement (Above 0.006895): A logical stop-loss is placed just above the resistance level to protect against a potential invalidation of the bearish setup. If the price closes above this level, the bearish thesis would be invalidated. 3. Trading Execution & Risk Management: Sell Entry Strategy: Traders looking for short positions should enter after a confirmed break below the wedge’s support. A potential pullback (retest) to the broken trendline could offer an additional shorting opportunity. The retest would confirm the previous support turning into resistance before a continuation of the downtrend. Take Profit Targets (TP1 & TP2): TP1 (0.006481): This level represents a strong demand zone where short-term buyers may step in. Traders may choose to book partial profits here. TP2 (0.006251): This is a deeper support level and the final target for this trade setup. If the price sustains bearish momentum, it is likely to reach this level before stabilizing. Risk-to-Reward Ratio Consideration: This setup offers a high probability short trade with an attractive risk-to-reward ratio. The stop-loss is well-defined, minimizing potential losses while maximizing profit potential. 4. Expected Price Movement & Projection: Short-term Outlook: A possible pullback to the broken wedge (previous support now acting as resistance) before continuation lower. If the price retests and rejects the 0.006650 level, expect acceleration in the downtrend. Medium-term Outlook: If the price reaches TP1 (0.006481) and breaks below, it increases the probability of hitting TP2 (0.006251). A bearish trend continuation could form, potentially leading to further downside levels. Invalidation Scenario: If the price closes above the stop-loss level (0.006895), the bearish setup is invalidated, and a bullish breakout could follow instead. 5. Conclusion & Trading Plan: The rising wedge breakdown signals a shift from bullish to bearish market sentiment. Traders should look for short entries after a confirmed breakdown or wait for a pullback before executing trades. The risk-to-reward ratio makes this a strong high-probability trade setup. Following the plan with strict stop-loss placement ensures risk is controlled while maximizing profit potential. 6. Summary & Key Takeaways: ✅ Pattern: Rising Wedge (Bearish Reversal) ✅ Breakout Direction: Downside ✅ Resistance Level: 0.006895 ✅ Support Levels: 0.006650 (broken), 0.006481 (TP1), 0.006251 (TP2) ✅ Stop-Loss Placement: Above 0.006895 ✅ Profit Targets: TP1 – 0.006481, TP2 – 0.006251 ✅ Trade Bias: Bearish
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
USD/JPY Technical Analysis – April 4, 2025 USD/JPY Technical Analysis – April 4, 2025 📉 🔹 Current Price: 145.998 🔹 Timeframe: 15M 📌 Key Supply Zones (Resistance Levels): 🔴 146.667 – 146.774 – Potential reversal zone 🔴 147.330 – 147.479 – Strong resistance 📌 Key Demand Zones (Support Levels): ⚫ 145.412 – Intermediate support 🟢 144.274 – Major Demand Zone (Potential Reversal Area) 📈 Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above 146.774, it may continue towards 147.330 – 147.479 before showing signs of reversal. 📉 Bearish Scenario: A rejection from 146.667 – 146.774 could lead to a drop towards 145.412 and potentially to 144.274 demand zone. ⚡ Trading Tip: ✅ Look for price reaction at 146.667 – 146.774 for possible shorts. ✅ If price reaches 144.274, watch for bullish confirmations. ✅ Use stop-loss and risk management strategies. #FXFOREVER #USDJPY #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoney #PriceAction #Trading
Short
by FXFOREVER_87
USDJPY POTENTIAL LONG UPON Q2 W14 Y25 FRIDAY 4TH APRIL 2025USDJPY POTENTIAL LONG UPON Q2 W14 Y25 Weekly Orderblock long Higher time frame Exponential moving averages pulling price action We do however need to see clear breaks of structure on the 15' to really prove that price is ready to turn around this early into the weekly order block. With larger higher time frame order blocks, there will always be the concern that so many voids within are below. why does my speculation favour a pull back deeper before then looking long. For those reason, we await breaks of internal structure below looking to risk capital. More to come on this. FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT
USDJPY Buying SetupUSDJPY is currently sitting in a key support zone, signaling a potential bullish momentum build-up. This bias is supported by the formation of a strong bullish candle at the level, suggesting buyers are stepping in. Importantly, price has respected structure—no lower low (LL) was formed. Instead, we’ve got a clean higher low (HL), which aligns perfectly with a bullish continuation scenario. Take-profits (TPs) and stop-loss (SL) levels are chosen with precision, keeping recent market structure and volatility in mind. As always, proper risk management is crucial for capital protection. Regards Sherry
Long
by Trade_With_Sherry
Falling towards Fibo confluence?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce tot he 1st resistance. Pivot: 143.94 1st Support: 142.19 1st Resistance: 147.13 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Short All weekly momentum indicators IMACD, RSI and Stochastic) are all bearish, so I have been looking for a short opportunity in 4H and daily charts. $151.85 is the major resistance and support zone (black horizontal line in the chart).  On Feb 6, USD/JPY broke and closed below the area, but it failed to continue to the downside. In the following few days, it retraced to Fib 0.5 area but started to move down. Today the price broke below Fib 0.236.   I like the yesterday's strong red candle, cancelling all the buy pressure from the previous day.  I opened a short position this morning.   Entry at $152.83. Stop Loss: $155.145 Target 1: $149.52  (move stop loss to the entry level once it hits this level) Target 2: $147.395
Short
by EbonyFalcon
4
USDJPY Reversal: Bearish Momentum Builds Below Key ResistanceUSDJPY pair is showing signs of a bearish reversal after rejecting a key resistance zone near 151.241. The price has failed to sustain bullish momentum and has formed a potential double-top/wedge structure, indicating a shift in trend. Key Resistance: 151.241 - 152.097 (Strong supply zone) Bearish Confirmation: Break below 149.592 confirms downside continuation. Key Downside Targets: 148.195, 146.990, and 145.855 as major support zones. If sellers maintain pressure, a deeper pullback toward the 145.855 - 145.824 region could be expected. However, a break above 152.097 would invalidate the bearish setup and could push the price toward 154.090.
Short
by ultreosforex
PY/USD Analysis: Rising Wedge Bearish Reversal & Short SetupThis chart represents the JPY/USD (Japanese Yen vs. US Dollar) on a daily timeframe (1D), published on April 3, 2025, via TradingView. The price action and technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook based on the formation of a Rising Wedge Pattern, a classic reversal structure signaling potential price depreciation. 1. Chart Structure & Identified Patterns A. Rising Wedge Formation (Bearish Reversal Pattern) The price has been moving in an uptrend, forming higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). The two converging black trendlines indicate a rising wedge, a pattern that typically precedes a downside breakout. A rising wedge is considered a bearish signal, especially when formed after a strong rally. B. Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Zone (Highlighted in Beige, Upper Range) This level represents a historically significant supply area where selling pressure is expected. Price action shows multiple rejections at this level, indicating the presence of strong resistance. The red downward arrow further confirms that this level is acting as a cap on price movement. Support Zone (Highlighted in Beige, Lower Range) This area previously served as a strong demand level, where buyers stepped in, reversing the price. The green upward arrow suggests that it played a critical role in the prior bullish move. C. Key Price Levels All-Time High (ATH) Marked at ~0.007155 This represents the historical peak price, which serves as a potential long-term resistance. Stop-Loss Placement (~0.006959) This is placed above the resistance level to manage risk in case of a false breakout. Target Level (~0.006178) Based on the wedge height, this level is calculated as the measured move after a breakdown. 2. Price Action & Market Sentiment A. Recent Bullish Move The market has been in a strong uptrend since hitting the support zone. This move was characterized by higher lows and higher highs, reinforcing bullish momentum. However, momentum appears to be weakening as the price struggles to break through the resistance. B. Confirmation of a Bearish Reversal The price has touched the upper resistance zone multiple times but failed to break through. The trendline breakdown (expected move) suggests sellers are stepping in. A lower high formation is seen as an early warning of a reversal. 3. Trade Setup: Short Position Strategy This setup aligns with the principles of technical analysis, utilizing the Rising Wedge as a bearish reversal pattern. A. Entry Strategy Sell Entry Trigger: Enter a short trade upon a confirmed breakdown below the lower trendline. Retest Confirmation: Ideally, wait for a pullback to the broken trendline before shorting to avoid false signals. B. Risk Management Stop-Loss Placement: Above the resistance zone at 0.006959, to protect against an invalidation. Take-Profit Target: Set at 0.006178, calculated based on the wedge’s height projection. C. Reward-to-Risk Ratio (RRR) RRR = 2:1 or higher The target level offers a risk-reward ratio that justifies the trade setup. 4. Summary & Final Outlook Bearish Signals: ✅ Rising Wedge Pattern – A strong reversal indicator. ✅ Lower Highs and Weak Momentum – Suggests selling pressure. ✅ Failure to Break Resistance – Indicates bullish exhaustion. ✅ Projected Target Based on Wedge – Price expected to reach 0.006178. Neutral Considerations: If price does not break the lower trendline, the pattern is not validated. If a false breakdown occurs, prices may briefly recover before falling. Bullish Invalidation: If the price breaks above 0.006959 and sustains above resistance, the bearish setup is invalidated. Final Verdict: 📉 Bearish Bias – The market setup favors a downside move upon a confirmed breakdown. 🎯 Target: 0.006178 (Key support level). ⚠️ Risk: If the price does not break lower, consolidation may occur before a clearer move.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
USD/JPY - ShortWeekly (Bias Validation) - Price between EMAs → ❌ Ranging - Major Swing Point High: 158.880 Low: 146.543 D1 (Daily): Trend Bias - Price below 200EMA & 50EMA on D1 → ✅ Bearish Bias - Major Swing Point High: 154.804 Low: 146.543 - ✅ Break of Structure (BoS) + Volume Imbalance - Price below Weekly VWAP → ✅ Bearish Bias
 H4 (4-Hour): Trend Bias - Price below 200EMA & 50EMA on D1 → ✅ Bearish Bias - Major Swing Point High: 151.214 Low: 149.684 - ✅ Break of Structure (BoS) + Volume Imbalance - Price below Weekly VWAP → ✅ Bearish Bias - High-Probability Entry Zones (H4 OTE) - H4 OB (OTE) H1 (1-Hour): Trend Bias - Swing Point High: 150.953 Low: 149.684 - ✅ Break of Structure (BoS) + Volume Imbalance - H4 OB → (OTE) - H1 OB → (OTE) 🔲 Validate with VWAP:
✔ ✅ H1 VWAP must align with H4 OTE before entry
✔ ✅ If price rejects H1 VWAP + OB midpoint, strong trade setup 🔲 Entry Options:
✔ Option 1 (Limit Order Entry): * Place a limit order at the OB midpoint inside OTE * Set stop-loss below OB (for longs) / above OB (for shorts) ✔ Option 2 (EMA Confirmation Entry): * ✅ Enter when 9EMA crosses 21EMA near OTE * ✅ Must have Volume Imbalance Confirmation 🔲 Final Confirmation:
✔ ✅ High Volume on Structure Break → Confirms strong move
✔ ✅ Low Volume on Pullback → Smart money accumulation
Short
by warsam
USD/JPY (Short)Daily:
 Price < 200EMA Swing Period 10

 Swing High: 158.880
Swing Low: 146.543 
Volume Imbalance: 5 Candles

 Daily Order Block: 155.223 / 153.916 H4: Price < 200EMA Swing Period: 7 Swing High: 152.315
Swing Low: 146.597 Volume Imbalance: 3 Candles H4 Order Block: 152.762 / 151.242 H1: Swing Period: 5 Swing High: 152.315
Swing Low: 146.597 Volume Imbalance: 3 Candles H1 Order Block: 151.762 / 151.628 Model 1:
 Entry Price: 151.692 
Stop Loss: 152.447

TP1: 150.115 @ 1:2 / 50% TP2: 149.363 @ 1:3 / 25% SL: Breakeven TP3: 146.552 @ 1:5 / 25% Model 2: 
 Entry Price: 151.108 - 150.141
 Entry Trigger: 9EMA X 21EMA

 SL: Above recent swing high

TP1: 1:2
 SL: Trailing 9EMA
Short
by warsam
2
USD/JPY... 4H pair...Here’s a structured analysis and actionable plan for the *USDJPY* trade idea based on the bearish flag breakdown and key technical levels: --- ### *Trade Setup Overview* - *Pattern Identified*: Bearish Flag breakdown (continuation pattern) after a prior downtrend. - *Key Resistance*: 100-period Moving Average (MA) acting as dynamic resistance. - *Entry Trigger: Retest of the broken flag’s lower boundary near **149.300*. - *Targets*: - *TP1: 148.30* (100 pips, aligns with the flag’s measured move). - *TP2: 146.60* (270 pips, targets a major swing low and psychological level). - *Stop Loss: **150.00* (70 pips risk, above the flag’s upper boundary and recent swing high). --- ### *Critical Technical Factors* 1. *Bearish Flag Dynamics*: - The flag’s "pole" (prior decline) suggests a measured move target of *~148.30* (TP1). - A close below the flag confirms momentum; watch for follow-through selling. 2. *Confluence with Moving Averages*: - The 100-MA resistance reinforces bearish pressure. A rejection here adds confidence to the downtrend. - A break below the 200-MA (if applicable) would signal a deeper bearish shift. 3. *Key Support Levels*: - *148.30*: Near-term target (previous swing low). - *146.60*: Long-term support (2023 lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2021-2023 rally). --- ### *Risk Management* - *Risk-Reward Ratio*: - TP1: *1:1.4* (70 pips risk vs. 100 pips reward). - TP2: *1:3.8* (70 pips risk vs. 270 pips reward). - *Adjust Stops*: Trail stops to breakeven if TP1 is hit to lock in gains. --- ### *Fundamental Catalysts to Monitor* 1. *Fed Policy*: Dovish signals (rate cuts) could accelerate USD weakness. 2. *BOJ Intervention*: Watch for verbal or direct action to defend JPY above 150.00. 3. *Risk Sentiment*: JPY strength may surge if equity markets sell off (safe-haven flows). --- ### *Execution Plan* 🔽 *Sell Entry*: 149.300 (wait for price to retest the broken flag boundary). 🎯 *TP1*: 148.30 (partial profit-taking). 🎯 *TP2*: 146.60 (requires sustained bearish momentum). 🚫 *Stop Loss*: 150.00 (avoids false breakdowns). --- ### *Will the USD Continue to Decline?* - *Yes, but with caution: The bearish flag and MA resistance favor downside, but JPY’s inherent weakness (BOJ’s ultra-loose policy) may limit sustained USDJPY declines. Focus on **TP1 (148.30)* as a high-probability target, while TP2 depends on broader USD trends and macro drivers. *Key Takeaway*: Trade aligns with short-term momentum, but remain agile given JPY’s sensitivity to central bank policies and risk sentiment.
Short
by Algo_Trading_Mql5
1