Stop loss for USDJPYNow , if you have not followed the story of this pair, USDJPY, please go read my strategy here
That is the big big picture, like looking at the forest from the helicopter view.
Now, let's go into the woods to see clearer. In the 4H chart, we can see that we are now locked in a range between 142.46 and 144.48 price level.
Assuming you want to short after you are convinced of my take on US dollar story and safe haven assets like Yen, Euro,etc , then where would you put your SL ?
25 May and 4 Jun - there were two resistance points where price fails to break above. Now, our price is going to revisit this resistance zone again. If you based on the high of 29 May candle as the point to place your SL, it appears too high. It was a false breakout on hindsight.
I am placing my own SL on the 3rd red candle around 145.433. I calculated I can short 0.8 contract with a 50 points SL and I would need to pay around 189 . This fulfils my 2% per trade principle based on 1000 capital.
With this in mind, to add on to my winners, I would have to make sure that I do not allow my emotions of greed and fear to magnify my SL nor increase my position size unnecessarily. This is very important. No matter how confident you think the market is going with you, anything can happen in the market and if you are WRONG, how much are you willing to pay? If you do it on impulse with pre calculation, then your emotions will take over especially if you get stopped out and wanted to do a revenge trade. Oh, tell me about it, so many times I have done that and lost money !
Hope this is useful for some of you.......
USDJPY trade ideas
Buying Yen against the DollarI first mentioned briefly about this pair here and safety assets here which I got it right in the rough direction.
I have been stopped out several times for this volatile pair but the losses taught me something. If we look at this line chart closely, we can see that it took only 2 months from July 2024 to Sept 2024 to fall from a peak of 161 to 140. If you missed this opportunity, the second time was 158 on 8 Jan 2025 and fell to 140 on 22 Apr 2025 (3 months).
The green bullish trend line is KEY , if the price action fails to hold above this line, then there are several profit targets for you as shown on chart.
Since I have not shorted at the peak of 161 or 158 , then looking back on hindsight serves no benefits but the fall from current price to 127 is equally rewarding.
I will be shorting in tranches of 1 - 3 contracts to capture my winners instead of taking profits at those levels and shorting at lower price each time and get stopped out due to retracement. Price action will not move in a linear fashion like the arrows I drew (fat hope, haha).
So , do adjust your SL slightly wider and manage your own risk capital. Again, this is a much volatile pair and may not suit those with lower risk tolerance. Trade what you can afford to lose.
What Is the Hanging Man Candlestick Pattern: Meaning & Trading?What Is the Hanging Man Candlestick Pattern, and How Can You Trade It?
In the world of technical analysis, candlestick patterns play a vital role in helping traders decipher market trends and potential reversals. Among the many setups, the hanging man holds particular significance. This distinctive formation captures traders' attention as it often serves as a warning sign of a possible trend reversal. This article will go through the technical analysis of the hanging man formation and explain how traders can trade with it.
What Is a Hanging Man Pattern?
The hanging man candlestick pattern is characterised by a small body near the top of the candlestick, a long lower shadow, and little to no upper shadow. It resembles a figure hanging from its head, hence the name "Hanging Man."
Psychology Behind the Hanging Man
The psychology behind the hanging man candlestick pattern reflects a shift in market sentiment. After a sustained uptrend, the appearance of this pattern indicates that buyers are losing momentum. The long lower shadow shows that sellers were able to push prices down significantly during the trading session. Although buyers managed to drive prices back up, the close near the open price suggests weakening bullish sentiment. This pattern signals that selling pressure is increasing, potentially leading to a bearish reversal as confidence among buyers diminishes.
The hanging man is a versatile formation that can be applied across a wide range of financial instruments, including stocks, cryptocurrencies*, ETFs, indices, and forex, on different timeframes.
Identifying a Hanging Man Candlestick on Trading Charts
To spot a hanging man pattern in stocks and other financial instruments, you may follow these key steps:
Look for an existing uptrend: Start by identifying a prevailing upward price movement on the chart.
Locate a candlestick with specific characteristics: Search for a candlestick with a small body near the top, a long lower shadow, and little to no upper shadow. This formation resembles a figure hanging from its head. The colour of the candle doesn’t matter, but if it’s bearish, the signal is stronger.
Consider supporting indicators: Utilise other technical indicators or oscillators to further validate the potential reversal. These can include trendlines, moving averages, or momentum indicators that align with the bearish interpretation.
Note that there is no such thing as an inverted hanging man candlestick or a bullish hanging man candlestick pattern.
Trading the Hanging Man Pattern
Those trading the hanging man reversal pattern need to apply a systematic approach in order to increase the likelihood of successful trades. Here are a few steps traders usually follow to trade this pattern:
- Identification: Identify the setup by using the steps mentioned above.
- Look for confirmation signals: The setup alone is not sufficient for making trading decisions. Seek additional confirmation through subsequent candlestick patterns or technical indicators. This can include bearish candlestick patterns (e.g. bearish engulfing or shooting star), a breach of support levels, or the convergence of other indicators signalling a potential reversal.
- Define your entry point: An entry point can be either when the next candlestick confirms the bearish sentiment or when the price breaches a significant support level.
- Consider risk management: Assess the risk-reward ratio of the trade and ensure it aligns with your risk tolerance. For efficient risk management, you may adjust your position size accordingly. Risk management tools like position sizing, setting stop-loss orders, and diversification may help protect your capital. You may set a stop-loss order above the hanging man pattern to limit potential losses if the trade goes against you.
- Identify profit targets: The candlestick itself doesn't provide specific targets. Traders can identify profit targets by looking at previous support levels, Fibonacci retracement levels, or other technical analysis tools like moving averages or pivot points.
- Monitor the trade: Keep a close eye on your position as it progresses. Pay attention to any changes in market conditions or additional signals that may invalidate the trade.
- Learn from outcomes: Regardless of the outcome of the trade, analyse it afterwards to identify areas for improvement. Assess whether the setup provided accurate signals and identify any factors that may have affected its success. This analysis will help refine your trading strategy over time.
Live Market Example
Consider the example of a hanging man on the forex USDJPY pair. An entry is placed on the next bearish candlestick with a stop loss just above the hanging man. The take profit order is at the next level of support marked by the orange line.
Limitations of the Hanging Man Candlestick
The hanging man candlestick pattern, while useful, has certain limitations that traders need to consider:
- False Signals: The hanging man can produce false signals, especially in volatile markets where price movements are erratic.
- Market Context: The effectiveness of the pattern varies depending on the broader market context and prevailing trends.
- Timeframe Sensitivity: Its reliability can differ across various timeframes; what works on a daily chart may not be as effective on an intraday chart.
- Not Standalone: It should not be used in isolation but as part of a comprehensive trading strategy that includes other indicators and risk management tools.
Comparing the Hanging Man to Similar Candles
Understanding how the hanging man pattern differs from similar candlestick patterns helps in accurate technical analysis. Here's a brief comparison of the hanging man with related patterns.
What Is the Difference Between a Hanging Man and a Hammer?
Both have the same candle structure. However, the hanging man candlestick occurs in an uptrend and signals a potential bearish reversal, while the hammer occurs in a downtrend, indicating a potential bullish reversal. Interestingly, it is possible to see a hanging man candlestick in a downtrend, often as part of a bullish retracement. Both candles require confirmation from subsequent price movements. They should be analysed within the context of the overall market trend and other technical indicators.
What Is the Difference Between a Pin Bar and a Hanging Man?
A pin bar and a hanging man are both single-candlestick patterns with small bodies and long shadows, but they serve different purposes in technical analysis. The pin bar has a small body and a long tail, indicating a reversal, but it can appear in any market condition. Its long tail shows a strong rejection of a certain price level, with the body pointing in the direction of the anticipated reversal.
The hanging man, however, specifically occurs after an uptrend and signals a potential bearish reversal, characterised by a small body at the top and a long lower shadow, indicating selling pressure.
What Is the Difference Between a Shooting Star and a Hanging Man Candlestick?
The shooting star and the hanging man are both bearish reversal patterns, but they differ in their appearance and context. A shooting star occurs after an uptrend and features a small body at the bottom with a long upper shadow, indicating that the price was pushed up significantly but fell back down, showing strong selling pressure.
The hanging man also appears after an uptrend but has a small body at the top with a long lower shadow, suggesting that sellers dominated the session despite an initial push by buyers. Both require confirmation from subsequent candlesticks to validate the reversal.
Final Thoughts
While the hanging man alone is insufficient for making trading decisions, it serves as a warning signal that buyers may be losing control and that selling pressure could increase. Traders seek additional confirmation through subsequent candlestick patterns, support and resistance levels, and other technical indicators to validate the potential reversal.
By understanding the implications of the setup within the broader market context and employing proper risk management strategies, traders can enhance their decision-making process and improve their chances of identifying different trading opportunities.
FAQ
What Does the Hanging Man Pattern Indicate?
The hanging man trading pattern in technical analysis typically indicates a potential trend reversal in an uptrend. It suggests that the buyers, who have been driving the market higher, are losing control, and the selling pressure may increase.
The hanging man is represented by a small body near the top of the candlestick, a long lower shadow, and little to no upper shadow. It resembles a figure hanging by the neck. This visual representation conveys the potential bearish sentiment.
Can a Hanging Man Candle Be Bullish?
No, there is no such thing as a bullish hanging man candlestick pattern. The bearish hanging man pattern indicates a potential trend reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend.
Is the Hanging Man Pattern Reliable?
The reliability of the formation, like any candlestick pattern, can vary depending on several factors. While the setup is widely recognised and considered a potential bearish reversal signal, it should not be relied upon as the sole basis for trading decisions. It is crucial to consider other factors and confirmation signals to increase its reliability.
What Is the Confirmation Candle for the Hanging Man?
A confirmation candle for the hanging man is a bearish candlestick that follows the pattern, confirming the reversal. This can include a bearish engulfing candle or a candlestick closing well below the hanging man's body, indicating increased selling pressure.
Is the Hanging Man Pattern Bearish?
Yes, it is generally considered a bearish pattern in technical analysis. It is formed when the price’s open or close is near or at its high, there is a significant decline during the trading session, and it closes not far from the opening price. The pattern resembles a hanging man with his legs dangling.
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Bullish rise off pullback support?USD/JPY has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Pivot: 143.45
1st Support: 143.08
1st Resistance: 144.42
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USD/JPY H1 | Overlap Resistance at 78.6% Fibonacci RetracementUSD/JPY is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 143.88 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 144.55 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 143.02 which is a swing-low support.
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USDJPY is Nearing an Important ResistanceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around 143.700 zone, USDJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 143.700 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDJPY - Setting Up for a Potential LongAnalysis:
On the USDJPY 30-minute chart, we're observing price action that suggests a potential continuation of the bullish trend after a recent pullback. Applying "Smart Money Concepts" to our analysis, here's what we're seeing:
Previous Structure Break & Bullish Order Flow: Looking left, we can see that price has recently broken significant previous highs, indicating a shift towards a bullish market structure. The general order flow has been upwards, despite recent retracements.
Liquidity Sweep & Institutional Interest (Potential): The sharp move down on June 5th, while looking bearish to some, could be interpreted as a "liquidity sweep" or a "stop hunt" by larger players. This often happens to absorb sell-side liquidity before a significant move higher. Price then moved back into an area of interest.
"Fair Value Gap" / Imbalance Filling: Price has recently come back into (or is approaching) an area where there was a rapid move up, leaving behind what's often referred to as a "Fair Value Gap" or an "Imbalance." Smart money often revisits these areas to "fill" or "mitigate" these gaps before continuing the trend. This suggests that the current pullback might be a retest of such an area.
"Order Block" / Demand Zone: We've identified a potential "order block" or a strong demand zone (the highlighted pink box) where institutional buying pressure was likely present previously. Price is currently interacting with this zone, and we anticipate a reaction from here. This is an area where we would expect smart money to step back in and push price higher.
Trading Idea:
Entry: We're looking for confirmation of bullish momentum around the current price levels, ideally within or just above the identified demand zone (pink box). A clear break and retest of the immediate resistance at approximately 143.600 could provide a good entry.
Target: Our primary target is the previous swing high around 145.770, representing a potential expansion of the bullish trend.
Invalidation: Our invalidation level (stop loss) would be placed below the identified demand zone, specifically below 143.000. A break below this level would invalidate our bullish thesis and suggest a deeper retracement or a potential trend reversal.
In Summary:
We are anticipating a continuation of the bullish trend on USDJPY, predicated on the idea that the recent pullback was a liquidity sweep and a retest of a significant demand zone/order block. We're looking for price to respect this area and push towards new highs.
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trade responsibly and manage your risk.
Sellers become active.1. **Price tapped into the 143.700–143.800 resistance zone**, just as expected.
2. **Strong bearish reaction followed immediately** after testing that zone:
* Long upper wick.
* A strong bearish candle closed under the previous bullish body → **rejection confirmed** ✅
3. Current candle is now **hovering around 143.600**, showing hesitation.
* This is **normal** after the initial rejection, and could form the **right shoulder** of a micro top structure.
Market next move Disruption Points:
1. Bullish Accumulation Underway
The recent candles show higher lows and lower volume on red candles, suggesting selling pressure is decreasing.
> Disruptive scenario: Price may bounce off minor support (around 1.3560–1.3570) and form a higher low, triggering a bullish rally back above 1.3620.
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2. Fake Bearish Setup (Liquidity Trap)
The three arrows predicting a drop might represent a classic retail trap where too many anticipate the same direction.
> Contrary idea: A false breakdown below 1.3550 may occur just to collect stop-losses, followed by a strong reversal upward.
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3. Divergence Risk
If momentum indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) show bullish divergence while price moves sideways or dips, it may signal an upcoming bullish impulse.
> Disruption: Downward arrows may be misinterpreting consolidation as weakness rather than a setup for continuation of the previous uptrend.
---
4. Fundamental Wildcard
The chart shows an upcoming U.S. economic event, likely to impact the dollar.
If the data is weak for the USD, GBP/USD could surge sharply, invalidating the bearish scenario.
USD/JPY Trapped in Consolidation QuagmireDuring the European session, the USD/JPY exchange rate oscillated around 143.10, extending the consolidation pattern triggered by the weak US dollar overnight. Influenced by the worse-than-expected US May ADP and ISM services data, the US Dollar Index fell to a six-week low of 98.60, and the USD/JPY rate also hit a low of 142.53. Subsequently, it rebounded slightly supported by the stable results of Japan's 30-year government bond auction and the decline in yields. Currently, the market is widely focused on the upcoming US May Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and is reassessing the path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
USD/JPY Bearish Setup from Lower High RejectionUSD/JPY showing signs of rejection at previous resistance, forming a potential lower high. The bearish setup aligns with overall downward momentum. RSI remains below the 60 level, suggesting limited bullish strength. Watching for continuation to the downside, targeting a break below 142.00 while managing risk above 143.84 resistance.
USD/JPY Weekly: Approaching Critical Long-Term Confluence SupOVERVIEW:
The USD/JPY pair has been navigating a well-defined multi-year ascending channel on the weekly timeframe, signifying a strong underlying bullish trend. After reaching significant highs, the pair has entered a period of correction and is now rapidly approaching a crucial confluence zone of long-term support. This area is expected to be a pivotal point for the pair's next major move.
KEY OBSERVATIONS & MARKET STRUCTURE:
1. Long-Term Ascending Channel:
Since late 2022, USD/JPY has consistently respected the boundaries of a broad ascending channel. This channel defines the primary bullish trend, with price oscillating between higher highs and higher lows.
2. Current Corrective Downtrend:
From its recent peak around 161.95 (marked as 0 on the Fibonacci), price has been in a substantial decline, forming a clear bearish leg within the confines of the larger channel. This current downtrend highlights a period of profit-taking and yen strength (or dollar weakness) after an extended rally.
3. "Deciding Level: Trendline + Resistance":
During this bearish correction, price recently broke below a short-term descending trendline and a horizontal level which had previously offered support. This former support has now flipped into resistance, creating a "Deciding Level" that bears have defended around the 146.00-148.00 area. Any attempt to rally will likely face strong selling pressure here.
4. Critical Confluence Support Zone:
The most significant area on this chart is the "Long-Term Support + Fib Retracement Zone" (highlighted grey rectangle) situated approximately between 137.00 and 140.00. This zone represents a powerful confluence of multiple technical factors:
Historical Horizontal Support: A clear zone where buyers previously stepped in, initiating strong rallies.
Lower Channel Boundary: The bottom trendline of the multi-year ascending channel. This is the natural area where the long-term bullish trend is expected to find new demand.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: This zone aligns perfectly with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (140.399) and extends to the 0.71 Fib level (137.186), drawn from the swing low of 127.059 to the swing high of 161.980. The 0.618 Fibonacci is often referred to as the "golden ratio" and is a high-probability reversal point in strong trends.
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK & TRADE SCENARIOS:
1. Bullish Reversal (High Probability):
Given the robust confluence of support, the most probable scenario is a strong bounce from this "Long-Term Support + Fib Retracement Zone." We would be looking for clear signs of bullish price action on the weekly or daily charts (e.g., large bullish engulfing candles, hammer formations, bullish divergence on oscillators, or a break of the short-term bearish trendline leading into this zone).
If support holds, initial targets would be the "Deciding Level" resistance (146.00-148.00), fol
lowed by a retest of the previous highs or the upper boundary of the channel.
2. Bearish Continuation (Lower Probability, but Critical Invalidation):
A sustained weekly close below the entire "Long-Term Support + Fib Retracement Zone" and the lower boundary of the ascending channel would be a significant bearish development. This would invalidate the long-term bullish structure of the channel and suggest a deeper correction is underway.
In such a scenario, the next levels of support would be the 0.71 Fib (137.186) if not already broken, and potentially even the origin of the Fib move at 127.059. This outcome would necessitate a re-evaluation of the overall long-term bias.
KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
• Critical Confluence Support: 139.00 - 141.00
• Deeper Fib Support: 137.18 (0.71 Fib)
• Immediate Resistance: 146.00 - 148.00 ("Deciding Level")
CONCLUSION:
USD/JPY is at a critical juncture. The "Long-Term Support + Fib Retracement Zone" represents a high-probability area for buyers to re-enter and potentially reverse the current corrective move. Traders should closely monitor price action at this zone for confirmation of a bounce or, less likely but equally important, a decisive break.
Risk Management is Paramount : As always, ensure proper risk management with well-placed stop-losses relative to the identified support and resistance levels.
________________________________________
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
Trading Signals for USD/JPY sell below 146.41The price test at 144.06 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar. As result, the pair plunged toward the target level of 143.39.
Yesterday was marked by significant fluctuations in the currency market, triggered by the release of disappointing data from the United States. The ADP employment report showed a much smaller job increase than expected, and weak ISM services sector figures created a domino effect, leading to a rise in the Japanese yen and a corresponding decline in the US dollar. The market's reaction was swift. Concerned about slowing US economic growth, traders began shedding dollar assets and shifting into traditional "safe-haven" currencies like the yen. This process was further intensified by revised expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy.
Today's weak wage growth data had little impact on the currency market. It appears that market participants had already factored such results into their forecasts, expecting a correction after previously more optimistic reports. Overall, investors are currently focused on more significant indicators of economic health, such as inflation and GDP growth, rates.
USDJPY: Will This CRT FVG Hold After the PWL Sweep?Price action on USDJPY reflects a clean execution of Candle Range Theory (CRT). Following a sweep of the Previous Week’s Low (PWL), price reacted from a higher timeframe demand zone, grabbing sell-side liquidity before printing a bullish Break of Structure (BOS). This BOS confirmed a shift in market intent and set the stage for a retracement into a clearly defined Fair Value Gap (FVG). I refined the entry on the 4H chart, waiting for price to return to the FVG zone, with risk placed just below the sweep wick. The target is mapped to the next logical supply above a cluster of equal highs and prior inefficiency. This setup reflects a high-conviction CRT play, built from top-down analysis and confluences rooted in market structure, liquidity, and imbalance logic.