USDJPY Price ActionHello Traders,
As you can see, the price dropped from the previous supply zone and has formed a new one. Along the way, it created both internal and external liquidity, which helps strengthen the newly formed zone — a common pattern we see repeatedly.
Remember, just because price didn’t move as expected and hit your stop loss, it doesn’t mean your analysis was wrong. That’s exactly why we use stop losses — to protect our capital before chasing profit.
I’ve marked the internal and external liquidity, along with the new supply and demand zones on the chart. As always, without liquidity, there’s no valid zone confirmation. Risk management is key — that’s all you really need.
Wishing you all the best and happy trading.
Thank you!
USDJPY trade ideas
ONEUSD/JPY Asian Range Pullback Strategy
Timeframe: 30 Minutes
Key Session: Asian Market Hours (00:00 - 05:30 +2GMT)
Strategy Rules
1. Identify the Asian Range
Mark the high and low of USD/JPY between 00:00 - 05:30 ( +2GMT )
Only trade if the range is >25pips (avoids noise).
2. Wait for Breakout + Pullback
Breakout: Price must close outside the range (candle body, not wick).
Pullback: Enter on a 50% retracement of the Asian range.
Longs: Breakout above range → buy at 50% pullback.
Shorts: Breakout below range → sell at 50% pullback.
3. Trade Execution
Entry: 50% retracement level of the Asian range.
Stop Loss:
Longs: Below the range low (for breakouts above).
Shorts: Above the range high (for breakouts below).
Take Profit : 1:1 Risk-Reward (RR).
Will the BoJ's hawkish approach affect the yen's strength?
US equity markets plunged amid growing concerns that the Trump administration's tariffs, set to be announced on April 2, could be aggressively implemented. Goldman Sachs warned that US tariff rates could reach as high as 18%, potentially shaving 1.0% off GDP growth and pushing the unemployment rate to 4.5% this year.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a continued tightening stance, stating that if persistently rising food prices lead to broader inflation, the central bank would consider raising interest rates.
USDJPY broke below the support at 149.50 before retracing to 150.00. However, failing to reenter the channel, the price hovers near the channel’s lower bound. If USDJPY fails to reenter the channel, the price may break below 149.50 again. Conversely, if USDJPY reenters the channel, the price could gain upward momentum toward the resistance at 151.30.
USDJPY InsightHello, subscribers!
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Key Points
- The White House spokesperson mentioned unfair trade practices in a press briefing, citing examples such as the EU’s 50% dairy tariffs, Japan’s 700% rice tariffs, India’s 100% agricultural tariffs, and Canada’s 300% butter and cheese tariffs. As Japan was specifically mentioned, yen volatility has increased.
- Ahead of President Trump’s reciprocal tariff implementation on April 2, discussions within the ECB are strengthening around the need to hold interest rates steady in April, considering the impact of Germany’s fiscal stimulus.
This Week’s Key Economic Events
+ April 1: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision, Eurozone March CPI
+ April 2: U.S. March ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
+ April 4: U.S. March Non-Farm Payrolls, U.S. March Unemployment Rate, Fed Chair Powell’s speech
USDJPY Chart Analysis
The pair has recently shown strong upward momentum, reaching the 151 level before facing resistance and retreating to the 149 level. As the current support and resistance range is quite narrow, it is crucial to observe the market for further direction.
>>If the 151 level is breached, an upward move toward the 154–155 range can be expected.
>>If it fails to break above 151, support at the 148–149 range will need to be confirmed. A further breakdown below this level could lead to a decline toward the 144–145 range.
USDJPY_2025-03-31Insane Trade Today.
Drawdown:3.8pips
TP: 81 Pips
To start the week, we have price reach and hover at a daily Luquidity Void.
From there, During London came a entry - Below Asia Low.
We would look to enter here being a bit bullish on the DLV.
To reinforce this buy idea, (if you didnt enter at asia low)
Price then broke a near high.
Retraces to the 15min Orderblock, then continued upward to TP at 81pips.
Could the price reverse from here?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 150.40
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 150.89
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 149.62
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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USDPY SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs 3
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Weekly EMA Retest
Daily Rejection at AOi
Daily EMA retest
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 151.000
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 4.85
Entry 90%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
USDJPY 31 MARCH 2025 Q2 W14 Y25 SHORT SET UPUSDJPY 31 MARCH 2025 Q2 W14 Y25 SHORT SET UP
Looking forward to this short play. In terms of the strategy, the price action is lining up beautifully for a high probability trade set up. Why? Lets dissect.
Weekly and daily 50 exponential moving average aligning proving the short confluences. Of late FRGNT have been taking high probability setups using the cushion that higher time frame moving averages continue to provide.
It of course does not suggest an immediate position is executed from the EMA. It is simply a confluence that we can hang out hat on a they say.
We are currently entering the daily order block created last Friday. We expect to see a bearish reaction but we are confident In waiting for our specific points of interest.
What are they?
aligned perfectly with the weekly and daily 50 ema, lies a 15' order block that is yet to me mitigated, this is our area to look for a short reaction.
The dilemma.
We enter a high probability area, do we await for a 15' break of structure after the bullish price action trailing into our area? Do we await and take a tap entry from the area? or finally do we await for a Lower time frame break of structure and if YES, How low do we go?
I think the first element to look into is how price arrives into the area. Will there be high impact news at the time of price entering into the level? it is always worth noting there it always reason to loose a position but our goal is limit just our exposure to that risk even in highly favoured positions.
What is the ideal set up for FRGNT? We hope to see clear trending price action into our level.
With clear higher highs and higher lows, we are able to see areas to be violated on the turn around and break and structure. Ideally we will await for a 1' turn turn around from the level. As a result of the setup being backed by the 50 weekly ad daily ema. We do expect to see a rollover in price and do not want to miss the set up but we must see a break of strcutre of some sort. There can be a lot of confidence taken from a 1 minute roll over. We will look for 1minute engulfing candle from the level. Await the imbalance fill and enter on a market execution.
What do you think?
Let's see how price comes to us .
FRGNT X
USDJPY → Key Level Retest. Attempt to change the trend FX:USDJPY in the correction phase is retesting the previously broken boundary of the downtrend. The market is trying to break the trend on the background of the dollar correction
The dollar is having a rather difficult life because of economic and geopolitical nuances regarding the USA, as well as high inflation. Against this background, the index may continue a deeper correction, as the rhetoric of interest rate cuts may be prolonged, which may put pressure on the markets.
The currency pair tried to overcome the downtrend resistance earlier and succeeded, but this is not enough for a trend change, it needs confirmation.
Support levels: 148.92, 148.21
Resistance levels: 150.16, 150.95
If the bulls hold the defense above 148.92 - 149.5, we have a good chance to catch a trend change. It will be the readiness to go to the resistance of 150.16 range, and the breakout of this level and price fixation above it will be the confirmation of the trend change
Regards R. Linda!
UsdJpy Trade IdeaI posted a UJ long idea yesterday stating I wanted to see price remain bullish since higher time frames were bullish. Once price crashed below the area I wanted to buy I simply waited for structures to flip back bullish above the area of support. Once price flipped bullish and gave a bullish candle confirmation after the retest that's when I decided to execute longs for a 1:3rr. So far price is playing out in my favor. We'll see what happens.
USDJPY Technical AnalysisFenzoFx—USD/JPY remains in a bearish trend, trading below the 50-period simple moving average (SMA).
Since the price is below the moving average and has set a lower low, the overall trend remains bearish. However, the Stochastic Oscillator signals oversold conditions, suggesting the Yen may be overvalued against the U.S. dollar.
If sellers push the price below 148.8, the downtrend could continue, with the next support at 145.5.
Conversely, a break above the 151.2 resistance would challenge the bearish scenario. If the pair moves past this level, it could extend gains toward 154.8.
Trade Setup: USD/JPY Long PositionI have entered a long position on USD/JPY following a confirmed breakout and close above the descending trendline on the 1-hour timeframe. The breakout signals a potential shift in momentum, with price now reclaiming key levels.
Entry: 149.20 (Breakout confirmation)
Stop Loss: 148.70 (Below recent structure support)
Risk Management Level: 149.00 (Adjusting SL if price moves favorably)
Target Levels:
TP1: 149.62 - Moving SL to BE at this point to manage risk
TP2: 150.12
TP3: 150.93
Trade Rationale:
Price has broken and closed above a well-defined descending trendline, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
The recent bullish candles show momentum, suggesting buyers are stepping in.
Risk is managed with a stop below recent lows, allowing room for volatility while protecting capital.
Targets are aligned with key resistance levels where price may react.