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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

Bearish USD/JPY — Yen Strength FavoredCMCMARKETS:USDJPY Bearish Factors (USD Negative / JPY Positive): Hawkish BoJ Expectations: Despite Japan’s weaker Q1 GDP, BoJ officials—particularly Deputy Governor Uchida—have signalled openness to resuming rate hikes in 2025. A Reuters survey suggests a potential 25bps hike before year-end. This divergence from the Fed’s stance supports JPY strength. Dovish Fed Outlook Intensifies: Weak U.S. April PPI and retail sales figures reinforce expectations for multiple rate cuts this year. Falling Treasury yields and soft inflation readings weigh heavily on the dollar. Resistance : 146.75 , 145.87 Support : 144.91 , 143.52
Short
by ATFX_Global
USD/JPY - Trendline Breakout (14.05.2025)The USD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 145.34 2nd Support – 143.81 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
29
USDJPY LONG📘 Trading Journal Entry – USD/JPY Date: May 16, 2025 Timeframe: 2H Pair: USD/JPY Direction: Long (Buy) Entry Price: ~145.5 Stop Loss: 144.818 Take Profit: 149.254 Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:5 🧠 Trade Idea & Reasoning: I’ve re-entered this trade based on strong bullish control of the market. Price has returned to a key support zone near 145.470–145.539, showing signs of holding despite recent downside pressure. Sellers have attempted to push price lower, but failed to break cleanly below — suggesting a liquidity sweep may have occurred (noted near the W.O. level). There is no clear evidence yet that sellers have taken control. The market structure is still bullish, and the recent consolidation near support indicates possible accumulation by buyers. Additionally, price is forming smaller candle bodies (reduced volatility), which may precede an expansion upward. 🔍 Technical Notes: Support Zone Held: 145.470–145.539 range held firm. W.O. Sweep: Potential stop hunt below support zone; a bullish sign. Market Structure: Bullish higher timeframe structure still intact. Risk Managed: Stop placed below liquidity zone to protect capital in case of failure. 🎯 Trade Management Plan: Monitor Tokyo/London session for momentum confirmation. Look for bullish engulfing candles or strong impulse moves to validate re-entry. If price stalls near 147.000, partial profits may be taken. If price re-tests 145.470 and fails again, I may add to the position with tighter risk. 🧾 Reflection: This is a high R:R setup aligned with the prevailing bullish trend. I’m trading based on structure, not emotion, and will stick to my plan. The stop loss placement respects the invalidation zone, and I’m prepared to accept the risk in full.
Long
by AplusFX_FXPreacher
4
USDJPY: FVG Then Bullish Overflow?It has been a significant week for USD/JPY. Following a break of structure (BOS) on the 4-hour timeframe, price moved away from equilibrium, leaving behind a Fair Value Gap (FVG). As the new week begins, we may observe a false move designed to induce traders into premature short positions before a potential bullish reversal—or vice versa. Additionally, given the recent BOS, price may temporarily stall to facilitate order accumulation. Next week will be pivotal in determining the pair’s next direction. Watch out for the key levels
Long
by BeaucoupPips
USD/JPY Bears Claw Back Monday BreakoutThe weekly bar for USD/JPY is taking on the shape of a gravestone doji, and if sellers can push, this could turn into a shooting star which wouldn't bode well for bulls after three consecutive weeks of gains following the failed breakdown at the 140.00 handle. For Friday, the 145.00 level looms large as this was support a week ago and currently holds the higher-low in the pair. If bears can break below that by the close of the week, then there'd be a shooting star following a failed breakout run at 148.00, and that would point to deeper bearish potential for next week. With that said, there could be a more attractive market for both Yen-strength and Yen-weakness, which I'll look at in follow-up posts. - js
by FOREXcom
YEN /US Carry trade to unwind more downside The chart posted so far the last 18 months has been on track .this has been supportive for the SP markets and is starting to roll over once again .But this time we break A major head n should neckline taking the this trade down to a 125 .128 handle . The markets are on thin ice and should see an issue in which the BOJ and Fed will have to step in .But the issue is the feds hands this time are Tied as the Ten year is setting up to move to 5 plus into late fall I said last year in early December 2024 we would be moving into Stagflation for the next two years . I still thing on track . WAVETIMER
by wavetimer
2
USOIL Temporary Drop seems inevitableYesterday's analysis perfectly predicted today's market movement. The USD/JPY rebounded from the low of 140.00, recovered from the downtrend channel, and then encountered resistance and pulled back at 148.65. Sellers are currently testing the support level of 146. If this level is broken, it may decline further to the round - number levels of 145.00 and 143.50. If 146 holds, buyers will attempt to break through the resistance level of 148.65 and further aim for the 200 - day moving average at 149.60. Today, the released U.S. retail sales and PPI inflation data will provide clues about the consumer situation and the wholesale inflation landscape. The market expects that after a 1.5% increase in March, U.S. retail sales will be flat at 0% in April. Meanwhile, the PPI is projected to rise 0.2% after a 0.4% decline in March. The USD/JPY rebounded from the low of 140.00, recovered from the downtrend channel, and then encountered resistance and pulled back at 148.65. Sellers are currently testing the support level of 146. If this level is broken, it may decline further to the round - number levels of 145.00 and 143.50. Federal Reserve Chair Powell will also give a speech, likely reiterating the Fed's stance that it will not be hasty to cut interest rates again until the impact of Trump's tariffs on the economy becomes clearer. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Long
by HilaryBloomer
USDJPY – Potentially More Volatility AheadUSDJPY experienced a significant move higher at the end of April/beginning of May, as first, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) started to indicate caution towards further interest rate hikes due to the uncertainty caused by the introduction of President Trump’s trade tariffs, a potential negative for the JPY. This was followed by dollar demand linked to Monday’s announcement by US and China trade representatives of a significant de-escalation of tariffs on imports from each country for a 90 day period. This upside squeeze saw USDJPY trade from a low of 139.89 on April 22nd to a high of 148.65 on Monday May 12th, as FX traders were forced to pare back weak short positions as short term upside resistance levels were broken. Since then, however, the rally has come to an abrupt halt with USDJPY falling to a low of 145.60 on Wednesday, with a potential catalyst for this drop being a news report outlining currency policy discussions between US and South Korean governments at the start of May which may have led to increased speculation that President Trump’s administration may be open to a weaker dollar. Looking forward, this pick up in USDJPY volatility may not be finished as traders now have to digest 2 scheduled events today and one overnight that may impact where this popular currency finishes the week. The first 2 events, includes the earnings and forward guidance from the US retail colossus Walmart (due today before the open) and US Retail Sales data (1330 BST today), which will provide FX traders with an important update on the current appetite of US consumers to spend through the recent trade war upheaval. Then, overnight the Japanese Preliminary Q1 GDP growth update is due at 0050 BST (Friday). This release could either support the current BoJ caution over further rate hikes, or lead to a potential resurgence of market rate hike expectations, if it comes in stronger than anticipated, with knock on implications for USDJPY volatility into the weekend. Technical Update: Being Prepared For Further Volatility It has certainly been an impressive rally in USDJPY, with traders perhaps focusing on the recent close above 145.92 as a potential positive. This level was equal to the May 2nd session high, which might be viewed by some, as opening further attempts to extend recent price strength. However, within financial markets, psychological round numbers in price can influence trader sentiment, meaning as impressive as latest upside may appear, it might still have to close above 150.00, equal to the round price number evident just above recent activity. What if the 150.00 resistance holds and fresh weakness emerges? This week’s activity has so far, seen a price high established at 148.65, posted on Monday, which coupled with the 150.00 psychological resistance, may be an area traders could be focusing on as next possible resistance. They may feel, this 148.65/150.00 range could continue to hold price strength, even attract selling pressure. A pattern for USDJPY activity in 2025, has been attempts at price strength failing under the previous recovery price highs, as indicated by the pattern of lower highs since the January 10th upside extreme, highlighted on the chart below. It is far too early to say if this is the case again, but the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of April to May price strength, which stands at 145.31, might prove an important support. If this 145.31 level were to give way on a closing basis, it could point to a possible phase of more extended declines, and potential weakness towards 144.28, the deeper 50% level, even 143.24, the 61.8% retracement. What if 145.31 Support Holds? If the 145.31 support holds current price weakness, it could be argued, the 148.65/150.00 range is a resistance area we should perhaps watch on a closing basis, if it is challenged over coming sessions. While not a guarantee of a more sustained phase of price strength, if closes above 148.65/150.00 were to materialise, traders might then look for potential to test higher resistance levels. Focus could for instance then turn towards tests of the next price failure high, which is represented by 151.21, posted on March 28th 2025, possibly further if this in turn gives way. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
USDJPY - Potential Sell (Swing Trading), Short Term Buy tooHi Traders, 📊 Price Action Analysis: Price on the weekly chart has been bouncing off the 140.0 level multiple times, forming lower highs — a classic sign of seller strength. We’re closely monitoring the daily chart to see when buyers lose momentum and the sell trend resumes. ⚠️ While there’s still potential for short-term buys on the daily, caution is advised — the overall structure leans bearish. Good luck and trade smart!
Short
by tarati.lorenzo
2
USDJPY Bullish Reversal Forming Off 4HR Order Block USDJPY is currently showing signs of a **bullish reversal** after reacting to a key 4-hour Order Block. The second leg of a W-pattern has just formed and was accompanied by a clean tweezer bottom on the 1-hour timeframe, signaling potential smart money accumulation. Yesterday (Wednesday), the first leg developed without any macro news influence, and we saw an internal, irregular W structure with a weak tweezer — possibly engineered to trap early longs and sweep liquidity. Today, Thursday, the second leg printed with much better symmetry and stronger price action. A textbook tweezer bottom formed on the 1H, supported by clear rejection from the OB and a liquidity sweep — setting up an ideal reversal zone. Confluences: ✅ Price tap into 4H Order Block ✅ Completed W-pattern with strong second leg ✅ Clean 1H tweezer bottom ✅ Liquidity sweep of previous lows ✅ Upcoming USD CPI News @ 1:30 PM — likely catalyst Expectations: Position entered long after tweezer confirmation. A short-term retrace into an unmitigated 15m OB or FVG may occur as part of news-driven volatility, but overall bias remains bullish for continuation unless structure fails. Invalidation: Clean 1H/4H candle close below the OB and W-pattern second leg low will invalidate this setup and shift bias back to neutral or bearish. ⚠️ Risk Note: This analysis is for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Always assess your personal risk tolerance and use proper risk management. For intraday traders, ensure stop loss is placed beyond the OB or liquidity sweep, and risk no more than 1–2% of your capital per position. News-driven setups carry additional volatility — trade cautiously and never chase price.
Long
by The-ultimate-trader
USD/JPY : More Bullish Move Ahead ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the USD/JPY chart on the daily timeframe, we can see that the price moved exactly as expected — first correcting down to the 142.5 area, and then rallying strongly to hit the 146.2 target. Currently, this pair is trading around 145.2, and if the price can hold above 145, we can still expect further upside movement on USDJPY. The next potential targets are 148.7 and 150 respectively. This analysis will be updated. The total return of this analysis so far has been over 720 pips! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
10
USDJPY INTRADAY downtrend continuation below 147.00USD/JPY remains in a bearish trend, as the longer-term downtrend continues to dominate market sentiment. The key level to watch is 147.00, which marks the recent swing high and a strong resistance area. If the pair rises toward this level and gets rejected, it could resume its downward move toward support at 144.60, with further downside targets at 143.00 and 142.35 over time. However, if the price breaks above 147.00 and posts a daily close above it, this would challenge the bearish outlook. In that case, the pair may continue higher, aiming for 147.60 and then possibly 148.50. Conclusion: The trend for USD/JPY is still bearish. A rejection at 147.00 could lead to more downside. But if the pair breaks and closes above 147.00, it may shift to a bullish move in the short term. Traders should watch how the price reacts around the 147.00 level for clues on the next direction. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
USDJPY to continue uptrendUSDJPY is forming has broken out of the downward channel and formed a new upward channel/trend. Expect a break of the trendline around 145.850 and continue upward from area of support to resistance zone/are of interest at 150.734. This resistance area extends all the way back to 10/2023 and appears quite strong. The 1h chart is also showing a potential crossover of the RSI/RSI EMA. The ADX is falling, the DMI is divergent. The MACD is divergent and downward momentum is slowing. 15/5/2025 0226 PDT
Long
by A-ronRS
Japan Pushes Back on Auto TariffsThe Japanese Yen strengthened to around 146 per dollar, marking its third straight gain as global trade concerns weighed on the U.S. Dollar. Asian currencies broadly rose with speculation that the U.S. may be favoring a weaker Dollar to aid trade talks. Trump’s administration argues that undervalued Asian currencies create unfair competition for American exporters. Meanwhile, Japan continues U.S. trade negotiations, with PM Shigeru Ishiba pushing for a deal that includes the auto sector and the removal of the 25% car tariff. USD/JPY faces resistance at 148.60, with further levels at 149.80 and 151.20. Major support is seen at 139.70, then 137.00, and 135.00.
by ChartMage