UPDATED ANALYSIS ON USD/JPYUSD/JPY 4H - AS you can see price has recently come to clear a FVG that was left over from the last impulsive wave that drove price lower. We have now seen price correct itself trading us up and into this area.
I now want to see price break down, confirming that the corrective wave trading us into this inefficiency has finished and a new bearish wave trading us lower is ready be printed.
We will get the confirmation we need one price has broken structure more fractally to the downside. I have marked out the last protected low within the corrective wave. Once we have a break here we have our confirmation.
This is because within bullish structure we break highs and protect lows, so by breaking a low we are not longer following the laws of bullishness but rather following the laws of bearishness, confirming this next bearish impulse.
USDJPY trade ideas
USD/JPY Support Test at Prior Resistance + Trendline in-PlayUSD/JPY came into the week with a full head of steam, testing above the 148 level after having found support at 145 last Friday. The pullback on Tuesday was pronounced, helped along by a weak U.S. CPI report, but so far USD/JPY and USD bulls have stepped up at key spots of support. In DXY, prior neckline resistance from the inverse head and shoulders pattern has come into play and in USD/JPY, it's a confluent spot at 145.92 and 146.20 that's stepped-in to hold a possible higher-low.
There's also the trendline projection which, notably, held resistance after both the BoJ meeting two weeks ago and the FOMC rate decision last week. That trendline is shown in red and it's coming into play as support.
For next resistance - the 200-day moving average seems important and that plots about 40 pips below the 150.00 handle. Given the numerous traps that have printed on both sides of the Yen this year, chasing still seems dangerous and attempting to work with pullbacks in trends remains an attractive way forward. - js
Too Many Bullish Clues — Greed Activated📍Current Price: 143.437
TimeFrame 30Min
Bullish Reasons:
+ Strong Support
+ Psychological Level
+ Tweezer Bottom
+ Bullish RSI Divergence
+ Channel Bottom
= Potential Bullish Reversal
Support & Resistance Levels:
• 142.000 – Strong Support + Psychological Level
• 140.000 – Strong Support + Psychological Level
• 148.000 – Psychological Level + Price Target
• 150.000 – Psychological Level
"Trade smart – always follow your risk management.
Protect your account first, profits will follow.
Happy trading!"
USD/JPY Rejected at Trend ResistanceUSD/JPY extended more than 6.2% off the yearly low with price registering an intraday high at 148.65 on Monday before reversing lower. The focus now shifts back to this turn from downtrend resistance with initial support now in view.
A closer look at Japanese Yen price action shows USD/JPY trading within the confines of embedded ascending pitchfork extending off the lows. The lower parallel now converge on near-term support at the May opening-range high (ORH) at 145.92 and the 38.2% retracement of the April advance / objective weekly open at 145.30/37 - a break / close below this slope would suggest a more significant high was registered this week / threaten resumption of them broader downtrend. Subsequent support objectives seen at the May open / 61.8% retracement at 143.05/24 with the yearly low-day close (LDC) at 141.56 .
Initial resistance is eyed along-the median-line and is backed by key levels at 148.67/74 and the March high-day close (HDC) / 200 day moving average near 149.50/60 - a breach / close above this region is ultimately needed to validate a breakout of the yearly downtrend / suggest a larger trend reversal is underway. The first major technical consideration in the event of a breakout is eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range / 2022 & 2023 highs at 151.63/94 - look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: USD/JPY has responded to confluent downtrend resistance with the pullback now approaching initial support and the first test for the bulls. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the lower parallel IF price is heading for a breakout here with a close above the 200-day moving average needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
-MB
Potential bullish bounce?USD/JPY has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 145.89
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 144.44
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 148.70
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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USD/JPY..4h chart pattern..USD/JPY sell trade idea:
**Trade Setup:**
- **Entry:** 146.60 (current market price)
- **Target:** 143.90 (270 pips profit potential)
- **Potential Move:** -1.84% decline from entry
**Key Considerations:**
1. **Support Levels:**
- 145.00 (psychological level & recent swing low)
- 144.50 (2023 resistance-turned-support)
- Your target at 143.90 sits just above the 143.50 major support
2. **Resistance:**
- 147.00-147.50 (recent highs)
- 148.00 (multi-decade resistance)
3. **Fundamentals:**
- Watch for BOJ intervention risk if JPY weakens further
- US-Japan yield spreads remain key driver
- Next FOMC meeting (Sep 20) could impact USD
4. **Risk Management:**
- Consider stop above 147.50 (90 pips risk for 270 pip reward = 1:3 RR)
- Price above 147.80 would invalidate bearish structure
**Alternative Scenario:**
If price stalls at 145.00, you may consider taking partial profits and moving stop to breakeven.
Would you like me to suggest specific trade management strategies or analyze this with technical indicators?
USDJPY 4H BULLISH ZONEBased on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart we provided, the market is currently in an ascending channel. A recent dip from the upper boundary of the channel suggests a possible retracement before a bounce back up. The chart indicates a bullish continuation pattern with a projected move toward the top of the channel and a marked target around 148.725–148.855.
Suggested Buy Trade Setup:
Entry Zone (Buy Limit):
Near the mid-channel or support trendline: 145.50–145.80
Take Profit Levels (TPs):
1. TP1: 147.00 – conservative target (near recent highs)
2. TP2: 148.00 – key resistance and psychological level
3. TP3: 148.725 – top of the channel
4. TP4: 148.855 – potential breakout level or final target
Stop Loss (SL):
Below channel support: 144.80–145.00, depending on risk appetite
USDJPY: Bearish Trend ContinuesThe exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen continues its downward trend, further retreating from the 148.65 area (the highest level since April 3) touched earlier this week. During the European trading session, driven by multiple factors, the exchange rate dropped below 146.00. The daily chart of the US dollar against the Japanese yen shows that the exchange rate is in a downward channel. Currently, the price is retesting the important support area of 145.230, which has served as a resistance level on many occasions before. From the perspective of the Bollinger Bands indicator, the exchange rate has declined from the upper band (147.848) and is currently hovering near the middle band, indicating that the short - term downward pressure still exists.
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
USD/JPY Multi-Timeframe Trading Plan – Week AheadUSD/JPY is trending higher short-term but remains below key resistance on the daily chart. The daily timeframe shows an inverted head-and-shoulders forming, with a neckline at 152. Until that breaks, rallies into 148–150 are likely to fade. The 1-hour chart shows a rising wedge from 142 to 148.5 with support around 145.0. Momentum is slowing, warning of potential exhaustion near 148.
On the 15-minute chart, recent price action shows a bull flag and a double bottom, offering buy zones at 146.10–146.30. The plan for early week is to long dips to this zone, targeting 146.80–147.20 with stops below 145.90. Watch for fades around 147.50–148.00 mid-week. A break above 148.00 opens room to 150.00; below 145.00, momentum shifts bearish.
Strategy: Buy pullbacks early in the week; fade rallies near 148 mid-week. Flip long above 148.00 or short below 145.00. Use tight stops and manage risk per trade.
BULLISH IDEA ON USDJPYThe DXY is bullish and the JXY is bearish this means we can get to see good bullish momentum in this pair. USDJPY has been in an uptrend for a long time now and we recently saw a divergence that played out yet the higher low still has not been broken so this can be a good buying opportunity as price is at a good support level. Stoploss placed just below the higher low.
The Rise of the US Dollar Pressures the Japanese Yen!The US dollar has regained its upward momentum recently, supported by market optimism following the mutual US-China agreement to reduce tariffs. One of the most notable currencies to weaken against the US dollar is the Japanese yen.
The USD/JPY pair has risen, forming a series of higher highs. The recent movement highlights three key levels to watch closely.
The 145.644 level is considered a positive signal for a renewed upward move, targeting the 147.755 level.
Meanwhile, the 144.822 level serves as a key support to maintain the bullish outlook. A drop below this level and a daily or 4-hour close beneath it would indicate a shift from a bullish to a bearish trend.
JPY retracement?Make or Break Zone
145.370 (just above 0.382 Fib)
145.760 (a minor resistance cluster)
It’s a Critical Zone:
This zone sits right around:
0.5 Fibonacci level (145.467): Often a strong inflection point.
Previous structure resistance turned potential support.
🟢 If Price Holds:
Bullish continuation is likely.
Next targets: 146.220 (0.618) → 147.292 (0.786) → retest 148.658 highs.
🔴 If Price Breaks Down:
Expect further downside toward:
0.382 (144.714) and then
0.236 (143.783) or even 142.277 (Fib swing low).
USDJPY... 4H CHAT PATTERN Let's break down your **USDJPY** trade idea and analyze the setup:
---
### **📈 Long Trade Setup (Buy Now)**
* **Entry:** 145.80 *(Assuming this is meant to be 145.80, not 1458, since USDJPY trades in the 100s range)*
* **Stop Loss (SL):** 145.10
* **Targets (TP):**
* **1st Target:** 147.10
* **2nd Target:** 148.50
---
### **📊 Risk-Reward Analysis**
| Target | Potential Gain (pips) | Risk (pips) | Reward\:Risk Ratio |
| ------------ | --------------------- | ----------- | ------------------ |
| 1st (147.10) | +130 pips | 70 pips | \~1.86:1 |
| 2nd (148.50) | +270 pips | 70 pips | \~3.86:1 |
---
### **💡 Notes**
* This setup has a **strong risk-reward profile**, especially with the 2nd target.
* Reaching the 1st target provides nearly **2:1** reward-to-risk, which is often a good benchmark.
* Consider **moving your stop to breakeven** after hitting the 1st target to protect gains.
USD/JPY H4 | Potential bullish bounce off an overlap supportUSD/JPY is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 145.87 which is an overlap support that aligns close the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 144.33 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support.
Take profit is at 148.67 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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USDJPY Will Fall! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 147.944.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 146.291 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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